Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold, highlighting a 3% increase for the week, marking its best weekly performance since early April [1] - Factors contributing to gold's rise include a downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and weak demand for US assets, which has pressured the dollar [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and increased military actions in Gaza, are also supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold experienced a pullback after reaching a high of 3345, with support seen around 3280 [3][5] - The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations for further upward movement towards resistance levels of 3345-3350 [3][5] - Trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions around 3340-3245 and long positions near 3280-3285, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6]

Group 1 - International gold prices have returned to the $3,300 per ounce mark, leading to increased attention on gold-related assets [1][3] - As of May 22, 13 gold ETFs continued to rise, with the highest increase being 0.23%, following a strong performance on May 21 where 20 gold ETFs surged over 3% [3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to global geopolitical instability, a weak US dollar, and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, which have heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [3][4] Group 2 - Fund inflows into gold ETFs have seen a significant turnaround, with a net inflow of approximately 370 million yuan on May 21, and a notable shift from net outflows to inflows in the following days [3] - Multiple public fund institutions are optimistic about the long-term value of gold, suggesting that it serves as a hedge against equity risks and can provide capital gains [4] - Short-term volatility in gold prices is expected, but the underlying factors such as expanding global fiscal deficits and central bank buying are likely to support gold prices in the long run [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Trump tax - cut bill has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals, but the market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. - The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range. With the decline in steel mill profits, the willingness to increase production is not strong, and the prices of coking coal and coke are weak, while iron ore prices are firm [2]. - The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. - The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. - The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [8]. - The silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. - The bond market is recommended to adopt a medium - term oscillation and slightly bullish strategy [8]. - The short - term pressure on the crude oil market is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [9]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Trump tax - cut bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next decade, raising the US debt ceiling by $4 trillion. It has led to the selling of US Treasury bonds and a decline in the US dollar, boosting precious metals. The market is also concerned about Powell's semi - annual policy hearing, and gold may enter a high - level oscillation in the medium term [2]. Steel (including rebar, coking coal, iron ore) Rebar - As of the week of May 22, rebar production was 231.48 million tons, an increase of 4.95 million tons (2.19%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 187.76 million tons, an increase of 2.77 million tons (1.5%); social inventory was 416.46 million tons, a decrease of 18.42 million tons (4.24%); apparent demand was 247.13 million tons, a decrease of 13.16 million tons (5.06%). The steel market shows a weak balance in the short term, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly in a narrow range [2]. Coking Coal - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.36%, an increase of 0.27% from the previous period; the daily average output was 52.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 316.48 million tons, an increase of 10.97 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 214.74 million tons, an increase of 11.48 million tons. The coking coal market is oscillating downward, with a loose supply situation, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2675.03 million tons, a decrease of 39.64 million tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 117.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.72 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 22.84, a decrease of 0.20. The iron ore market has weakening demand and increasing supply pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the operation logic switching between strong reality and weak expectation [4]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the methanol operating rate was 87.04%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%; the total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.04%, a weekly increase of 1.45%; the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.04 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.65 million tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 33.6 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.02 million tons; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 3.84 million tons. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 2260 line [5]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide was 1422.5 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices recently; the weekly output of soda ash was 66.38 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous period; the operating rate of float glass was 75.24%, a weekly decrease of 0.22%; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 6776.9 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous period. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 1260 line [6]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the chlorine - alkali profit was 358 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.1%, an increase of 1.5%; a 720,000 - ton/year chlorine - alkali plant of Shanghai Chlor - Alkali was under maintenance for about one month; the weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 40.09 million tons, a decrease of 3.61%; the weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 75%, a decrease of 1%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.3%, a decrease of 0.35%. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2490 line [7][8]. Silver - Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed will not buy bonds in primary auctions. If the impact of tariffs stabilizes, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. The market has renewed expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and the silver market is recommended to adopt a medium - term wide - range oscillation and slightly bearish strategy [8]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net investment of 375 billion yuan after deducting the 125 - billion - yuan maturity this month, which is the third consecutive month of incremental roll - over. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [8]. Crude Oil - There is still uncertainty in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and possible geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, the pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increases. Short - term short - term participation is recommended [9]. Rubber - Thai rubber raw material prices are falling, while Hainan raw material prices are improving. The global light - vehicle sales in April 2025 maintained an upward trend. The rubber market has strong raw materials but weak finished products. The tire operating rate has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is 834 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 259 US dollars/ton; the price of PTA in East China is 4870 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4705 yuan/ton; the social inventory of PTA is 373.16 million tons, a decrease of 14.97 million tons from the previous statistical period; the PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 77.22%; the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of polyester is around 90.4%. The PTA market is expected to have a slight increase in domestic supply in the medium - to - long term, with the pressure of over - capacity emerging, and a cautious and bearish attitude is recommended at high levels [10].

Group 1: Global Payment Currency - In April, the Chinese Yuan ranked as the fifth most active global payment currency, accounting for 3.5% of the total [1] - Excluding the Eurozone, the Yuan ranked sixth with a share of 2.38% [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3 in May, while the services PMI also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [2] - New orders in the manufacturing sector increased at the fastest pace in over a year, but manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month [2] - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 227,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [2] Group 3: European Economic Developments - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the rate cut in April was an early action originally planned for June, with a 90% probability of a rate cut next month [2] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2, but the services PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.9, the worst performance in 16 months [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's core machinery orders surged by 13% year-on-year in March, significantly exceeding expectations and marking the highest level in nearly 20 years [3] - The Bank of Japan's board member stated that there is no need for intervention in the bond market to curb rising long-term bond yields [3] Group 5: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up 0.28% [4] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 7.58 basis points to 4.529% [5] - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil down 1.23% to $60.81 per barrel [5]

Report Overview - The report is a special report on the May Day holiday in 2025, analyzing the price changes of various sectors in the external market during the holiday, important news, and providing post - holiday trading suggestions [2] 1. 2025 May Day Holiday External Market Price Changes Exchange and Precious Metals - The US dollar index rose 0.58% from 99.22 to 99.8; the US silver continuous contract fell 1.27% from 33.04 to 32.62; the US gold continuous contract dropped 1.33% from 3315.2 to 3271 [2] Stock Indexes - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased 4.03% from 6894.72 to 7172.4; the German DAX rose 2.95%, the Hang Seng main contract climbed 2.69%, the French CAC40 went up 2.68%, the S&P 500 increased 1.46%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.13%, and the Nikkei 225 increased 1.04% [2] Commodities - Some commodities like US cotton continuous contract rose 3.31%, while others such as Brent crude oil continuous contract fell 4.55% and WTI crude oil continuous contract dropped 5.04% [2] 2. 2025 May Day Holiday Important News Stock Index Sector - Global major stock indexes performed well during the holiday. The rise was related to tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy expectations. The US proposed to lower tariffs, and the Fed's potential rate - cut in the future could ease global liquidity pressure [3] Energy Sector - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day from June, which may complete the 2.2 million barrels per day total increase target nearly one year ahead. This led to concerns about supply pressure and a decline in oil prices [4] Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices fluctuated due to tariff negotiation progress. Even if tariffs improve, central banks' gold - buying trend may continue. Silver was under pressure due to unclear macro - economic situations and high - level gold price fluctuations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Strong US non - farm payroll data cooled rate - cut expectations, and low manufacturing PMI restricted the rebound space of non - ferrous metals [6][7] Black Metals Sector - For steel, production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose during the holiday, but the sustainability is uncertain. For iron ore, it faced a situation of high supply, weak demand, and policy suppression [8] Agricultural Products Sector - Vegetable oils in the external market fell significantly due to the decline in international oil prices. Different agricultural products had different trends, such as soybeans and soybean meal having narrow - range fluctuations [9][10] 3. Post - holiday Trading Suggestions Energy and Chemicals - The crude oil market is expected to be weak after the holiday, which may drive down the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Styrene is expected to continue its weak trend [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals may fluctuate after the holiday. Shanghai copper may have a relatively strong oscillation [13] Black Metals - Steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, and its upward space is restricted in the long term. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][13] Agricultural Products - Domestic vegetable oil varieties are likely to follow the external market's decline. Dalian soybeans and soybean meal may continue the weak - oscillation trend, and corn futures may continue the pre - holiday strong - oscillation trend [14]

1.黄金建议在当前现价3290附近做空，止损在3298，目标看3275-3255，破位持有。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金2小时图上，黄金连续反弹，刷新一周新高，不过日内金价冲高回落，需要注意短期回调修正风险。其次日内黄金高点位置3345美元。5日均线轻微金 叉，MACD指标死叉上拐，RSI指标金叉下拐，KDJ指标金叉略微放缓，短期技术面显示跌势占优，不过RSI指标暗示金价短线存在调整需求，翁富豪建议晚 间看跌为主导. 周四（5月22日）欧市盘中，现货黄金维持震荡下行态势，现报3295美元/盎司附近。日内大家需重点关注美国PMI数据，该指标可能引发黄金市场显著波 动。尽管金价周四录得连续第四个交易日上涨，并一度触及3350美元/盎司的两周高位，但当前涨势有所放缓。黄金近期走势主要受到多重因素支撑：地缘 政治风险升温、美国财政状况恶化以及美元持续走弱。具体而言，穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，并警告特朗普政府新一轮税改及开支计划可 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The extension of Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and the large - scale government spending cuts in the new bill have raised concerns about the expansion of the federal debt scale, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. The risk of the US dollar's credit has increased, which is a structural positive for the gold price. The Fed's latest statements maintain a cautious and wait - and - see tone, and the uncertainty of fiscal and tariff policies may delay the timing of interest rate cuts this year. In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices are still boosted by the safe - haven property and interest rate cut expectations. [2] - The tariff situation has reached a deadlock again, and the negotiations between the US, Japan, and the EU face great uncertainty. Against the background of the medium - to - long - term upward shift of the gold - silver ratio, the correlation between gold and silver price movements has declined. Recently, silver has mainly followed the upward trend of gold. In addition, silver's industrial demand remains strong, and its industrial attribute may maintain resilience. It is recommended to adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.1 yuan/gram, up 1.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8301 yuan/kg, up 29 yuan. [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 224,053 lots, up 1,559 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 383,991 lots, up 20,934 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 111,487 lots, up 4,976 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 175,940 lots, up 11,732 lots. [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 949,197 kg, up 8,398 kg. [2] 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 780.99 yuan/gram, up 7.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,269 yuan/kg, up 73 yuan. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.89 yuan/gram, up 5.88 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 32 yuan/kg, up 44 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 919.88 tons, down 1.72 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,054.89 tons, unchanged. [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 161,209 contracts, down 1,288 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 47,754 contracts, down 1,498 contracts. [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 32.82%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 26.97%, down 0.06 percentage points. [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.46%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.47%, up 0.45 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - A new tax bill extends Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and cuts government spending to pay for tax cuts. The market is worried that this will lead to an expansion of the federal debt scale, and the CBO estimates that it will increase the federal deficit by $1.8 trillion from 2026 - 2035. [2] - Two Fed officials said the Fed can be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. [2] - The EU is expected to submit a revised trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations with the Trump administration. [2] - The Middle East situation is tense. Iran is evaluating participation in the next round of negotiations with the US, and Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down. [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2%. [2] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 758 - 805 yuan/gram; for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8,200 - 8,390 yuan/kg. For COMEX gold futures, focus on the range of $3,240 - $3,380 per ounce; for COMEX silver futures, focus on the range of $32.9 - $34.0 per ounce. [2]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】EIA数据：原油库存增长132.8万桶，库存增 长81.6万桶，原油产量增加0.5万桶至1339.2万桶/日。阿曼称 第五轮伊朗-美国谈判将于5月23日星期五在罗马举行。伊朗外 长再次强调了伊朗的立场非常明确，即无论是否达成协议，铀 浓缩都将继续进行。评：EIA数据显示，原油、成品油全线累 库，与凌晨API数据差异较大，偏利空的数据公布后油价继续快 速回落。整体看，短期原油压力不大，长期关注美伊、俄乌谈 判进展及OPEC+增产情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】由于投资者对大规模减税法案感到不安，美 国遭股债汇"三杀"。当日20年期美国国债拍卖结果弱于预 期，表明投资者可能对购买政府债务的需求疲软，随后收益率 走高。评：市场对美元及美债提出担忧，美元指数下跌，黄金 持续上涨。黄金短期偏多，中期或陷入高位震荡，关注即将到 期兑付的美债问题。 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 投资咨询中心 2025年05月22日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfc ...

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-21 克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3257-3397美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：32.8-33.6美元/盎司。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 778.78 | 24.4 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8272 | 198 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 222494 | 11141 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 363057 | 26834 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 106511 | 8082 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 164208 | 36359 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 17247 | 9 仓单数 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】5月6日至13日的COT（交易者持仓报告）数据显示，市场出现大规模做空行为，做空规 模达111亿美元，虽有42亿美元买入开仓，但整体净多头头寸仍减少69亿美元。做空主力为对冲基金，其净卖出额 73亿美元，做空激增至94亿美元。其他类型投资者净多仓减少8.3亿美元，资产管理机构和非报告投资者分别买入 9.4亿美元和3亿美元。 高盛交易员Robert Quinn指出，纳指近几周表现良好，但同期新增空头头寸远超多头开仓。最近三期COT报告显 示，对冲基金累计做空金额高达250亿美元，为至少过去十年最大规模，且空仓占总未平仓合约比例达41%，为 2021年2月以来最高。 不过，对冲基金"空头仓位激增"或为对冲其他多头建仓的套利操作，但仍凸显其对美股上涨的怀疑。 值得注意的是，一些CEO言论与对冲基金立场一致，与通常美股走势和CEO信心正相关的常态出现极大偏离。美 国总统特朗普宣布关税90天暂停后，散户积极买入，美股大幅反弹。即便本周一穆迪下调美国评级，散户仍创纪 录抄底买入54亿美元，助美股V型反转。 与此同时，市场对美联储降息预期大幅回落。近几个月"硬数据"有韧性支撑增长预期与股市，但"软数据 ...