Core Viewpoint - BYD is set to become the world's largest seller of electric vehicles (EVs) in 2025, with projected sales of 2.25 million units, significantly surpassing Tesla's expected sales of 1.64 million units. However, BYD is experiencing a slowdown in growth, particularly in the domestic market, where competition is intensifying in terms of price and technology [2][4][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - BYD's EV passenger car sales are expected to grow by 28% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 2.25 million units, while overall new car sales, including plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs), are projected to increase by 8% to 4.6 million units [4]. - Since 2021, BYD has seen rapid growth in new car sales, with 2021 sales at 740,000 units, and is expected to surpass Honda and Nissan in 2024. However, the growth rate is noticeably slowing compared to previous years [4][6]. Group 2: Market Challenges - BYD's domestic sales have begun to decline, with a notable drop in September sales, marking the first year-on-year decrease in 18 months. The company has revised its annual sales target down by 10% from 5.5 million to 4.6 million units [6][8]. - Chairman Wang Chuanfu indicated that the slowdown is partly due to a decrease in technological leadership and increasing market homogenization, which aligns with the cyclical nature of product and technology development [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - In terms of pricing, BYD's main model, the low-cost EV "Seagull," faces competition from Geely's "Star Wish" and SAIC-GM-Wuling's "Hongguang MINI," which are priced competitively [7]. - Competitors are also catching up in technology, particularly in the rapidly advancing field of driver assistance systems, with major automakers like Beijing Automotive Group and Changan Automobile receiving government approval for mass production of their EVs equipped with Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities [7]. Group 4: Financial Impact - The company's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 has decreased by 8% year-on-year to 23.3 billion yuan, marking the first profit decline in four years for the same period. Revenue and profit both declined in the third quarter, exacerbated by rising R&D costs outpacing revenue growth [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The domestic market environment is expected to become more challenging in 2026, with the full exemption of vehicle purchase tax for EVs set to be halved. The proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market is projected to increase to 50%, but the pace of adoption is expected to slow [9]. - Despite these challenges, Wang Chuanfu remains optimistic about future technology releases and the performance of subsidiaries like "Equation Leopard," which focuses on off-road vehicles. The ability to maintain domestic market leadership while expanding into overseas markets will be crucial for stable growth in 2026 [9].

网约车利用移动互联网技术创新重塑了生产关系，极大提升了用户的打车效率，但是供给侧的放松也导 致了目前行业内卷的状况，司机、运力合作方和网约车平台都陷入了盈利困境。打车费用中，司机成本 占比约70%。Robotaxi通过技术取代人力，可以较显著地优化成本结构，同时降低打车费和运营成本， 平台和用户有望双赢。而这一轮Robotaxi行业的加速发展，主要依托于技术成熟+政策放宽+成本下降， 2026年头部玩家有望在个别城市跑通商业模式： 1、技术层面 L4级自动驾驶技术逐步成熟。加州DMV官网的路测数据显示，美国Robotaxi头部公司的平均接管里程 数（MPI）接近1万英里，瑞士再保险公司数据也显示该公司的事故率较大程度低于人类司机。 2、政策层面 国家配套政策持续推进，地方"细则"、"条例"不断完善。国家层面已出具与出租汽车客运有关的自动驾 驶文件。2023年12月交通运输部发布了《自动驾驶汽车运输安全服务指南（试行）》，直接对使用自动 驾驶汽车从事出租汽车客运的主体进行规定，例如应用场景、安全保障、运输车辆、人员配备等。 国家层面也在加快出台车路云等Robotaxi的配套设施政策。我国除了对Robotaxi本 ...

编前：2025年，是汽车行业新旧动能转换的关键一年，市场"无形之手"和政府"有形之手"各展所 长、形成合力，推动中国汽车在国内国外两大市场再攀高峰。复盘2025，我们在市场规模、新能源汽 车、商用车等多个领域取得新突破，印证了中国汽车的韧性与潜能。 但也要清醒地认识到，内外部挑战依然严峻，如国际贸易摩擦增加、"卡脖子"技术瓶颈待解、"反 内卷"任务艰巨……当然，解决这些问题的过程也是创造和发现机会的过程。本文通过10组数据，复盘 中国汽车的2025。 11月，我国汽车出口72.8万辆，环比增长9.3％，同比增长48.5％，为历史上首次超过70万辆；1～ 11月，汽车出口634.3万辆，同比增长18.7％，全年有望冲击700万辆的历史新高。随着国内市场增速放 缓，企业加码出口战略，"不出海就出局"成为共识。 04 新能源乘用车份额逼近60％ 11月，新能源汽车销售182.3万辆，同比增长20％，占比53.2％。其中，新能源乘用车份额稳步攀 升，达到59.3％。从发展趋势来看，国内汽车市场将进入高销量、低增长周期，预计2026年新能源汽车 销量（含出口）有望达到2000万辆，保有量占比将达到15％。 05 L2级 ...

Core Insights - The shared economy model, leveraging internet technology and resource sharing, has rapidly emerged, significantly impacting various sectors including transportation and finance [1] - The shared mobility sector has seen a recovery in transaction volume, reaching 234.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.07% [1][9] - Future growth is expected as shared mobility integrates with advanced technologies like autonomous driving and electric vehicles, enhancing service intelligence and sustainability [1][9] Shared Mobility Industry Overview - Shared mobility refers to transportation methods where users do not own vehicles but share them, including ride-hailing services and bike-sharing [2] - The industry encompasses various innovative models such as ride-hailing, bike-sharing, and car-sharing services [2] Development Background of Shared Mobility - The shared economy, centered around internet platforms, optimizes resource allocation and enhances efficiency [4] - China's shared economy market size is projected to grow from 19.6 trillion yuan in 2015 to 44.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.57% [4] Shared Mobility Industry Chain - The industry chain includes hardware suppliers (vehicle manufacturers, battery suppliers) at the upstream, platform operators in the middle, and end-users at the downstream [5] Current State of Shared Mobility - The user base for shared mobility in China has grown from 380 million in 2016 to 710 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.13% [8] - The shared mobility sector is becoming a vital part of urban transportation, driven by urbanization and increasing environmental awareness [8] Competitive Landscape and Key Players - The shared mobility industry features a competitive landscape with major players like Didi Chuxing, Cao Cao Mobility, and others in ride-hailing, while bike-sharing is dominated by companies like Hello Bike and Meituan Bike [9] Future Trends in Shared Mobility - The integration of services and the emergence of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) will enhance user experience and operational efficiency [13] - Technological advancements will improve user experience and operational intelligence, with AI and autonomous driving playing key roles [14] - The green transition in shared mobility will involve collaboration with urban energy systems, enhancing sustainability [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the autonomous driving industry in 2025, highlighting the dual focus on technology proliferation and technical challenges, with traditional automakers pushing for accessibility and new players striving for technological advancements [4][5]. Group 1: Industry Trends - In 2025, traditional automakers like BYD, Geely, and Chery are leading the charge in making autonomous driving technology more accessible by integrating mid-level highway NOA features into vehicles priced over 100,000 yuan [4]. - New entrants and leading autonomous driving suppliers are focused on pushing the limits of technology, adhering to a model of annual technological iteration [4][5]. - The industry is witnessing a bifurcation, with one camp focused on accessibility and the other on technological challenges, particularly in the realm of algorithm development [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The transition from "passive perception" to "active cognition" is marked by the introduction of world models, which represent a significant paradigm shift in autonomous driving technology [5][6]. - 2025 is characterized as a year of significant technological transition, with the widespread adoption of end-to-end systems and the emergence of world models and VLA (Vision-Language-Action) technologies [6][9]. - NIO is highlighted as a pioneer in the world model space, having launched its world model in 2024, transitioning from "perception-driven" to "cognition-driven" systems [5][6]. Group 3: Data Infrastructure and Chip Development - The importance of data infrastructure is emphasized, with companies like NIO benefiting from early investments in data collection and model training capabilities [7][8]. - The year 2025 is noted as a pivotal year for integrated hardware and software solutions, with companies like NIO and XPeng achieving self-developed chip integration [7][8]. - The article warns of the risks associated with outsourced chip development, contrasting it with NIO's genuine self-development efforts, which involve significant technical team investments [8]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The issuance of L3 licenses is seen as a significant step towards the next phase of autonomous driving, indicating a shift from L2+ mass production to L3 and L4 capabilities [8][9]. - While traditional automakers have secured initial L3 licenses, their capabilities are questioned, suggesting that true advancements will come from new players and those with strong model capabilities [9][10]. - The ultimate value of autonomous driving technology is framed around enhancing driver convenience and significantly reducing traffic accidents, with a focus on safety as a primary goal [9].

点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 自动驾驶之心 "公众号 戳我-> 领取 自动驾驶近30个 方向 学习 路线 >>自动驾驶前沿信息获取 → 自动驾驶之心知识星球 论文作者 | Tianze Xia等 编辑 | 自动驾驶之心 近年来，得益于感知（如 BEVFormer, MapTR, BEVDet 等）和规划（如 UniAD, VAD, DiffusionDrive, ReCogDrive 等）的突破性进展，自动驾驶技术取得了长足进步。 然而，现有系统在面对 长尾场景 时依然显得脆弱，严重制约了闭环驾驶的性能。为了解决这一难题，近期大量研究工作尝试运用 世界模型（World Models） ，旨在 通过预测驾驶场景的未来演变来增强系统的泛化性与鲁棒性来解决长尾问题。 目前，世界模型在自动驾驶中的应用已百花齐放：一类致力于合成下游任务数据以应对罕见场景（如 VISTA, GAIA, MagicDrive, DriveDreamer, DrivingDiffusion）；另 一类利用模拟环境进行策略学习（如 RAD, ReSim, OmniNWM）；还有一类则提供未来的视觉预测作为辅助监督信号（如 DriveVLA, Dr ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【特朗普称美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡】 据央视新闻，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普就美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动举行新闻发布会。 特朗普称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡。他还表示，马杜罗及其妻子都将面临美国司法审判。 特朗普没有为美国的占领设定时间限制。他声称何时将委内瑞拉交还给委内瑞拉人，将由美国决定。 特朗普说，美国对委内瑞拉的石油禁运仍完全有效。特朗普称，"美国在西半球的主导地位再也不会受到质 疑"。 当地时间1月3日中午11时39分，北京时间今天（1月4日）凌晨0时39分，美国总统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思 在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记者会。 【外交部发言人就美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击答记者问】 外交部发言人就美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击答记者问。 问：据报道，美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击。特朗普在"真实社交"发文称，美国已成功对委内瑞拉及其领导人 马杜罗实施大规模打击行动，马杜罗及其夫人已被控制并移送出境。中方对此有何评论？ 答 ...

特斯拉去年的汽车销量下降了8.6%，使其在全球电动车制造商排名中明显落后于中国的比亚迪（BYD）。这意味着马斯克领导的特斯拉在过去十年中凭借普及 插电式电动车所建立起来的领先优势消退。 特斯拉在周五发布的声明中表示，第四季度交付量同比下降16%，至418,227辆，预估为440907辆。特斯拉四季度交付量低于媒体调查的分析师预期以及公司 自身目标。全年来看，特斯拉销量下滑近9%，这是连续第二年出现年度下跌。 相比之下，比亚迪在第四季度和全年电池电动车销量均实现增长，全年交付接近226万辆电动车，而特斯拉为164万辆。 比亚迪在去年进一步拉开了与特斯拉的差距。此前在2024年，比亚迪在整体表现上仅略逊于特斯拉。虽然比亚迪在当年第四季度交付的纯电动车数量已超过特 斯拉，但特斯拉在全年总量上仍保持着微弱领先。此外，比亚迪在过去两年中，每年插电式混合动力车的销量都超过200万辆。 除了在中国市场销售更多电动车——其中一些车型的价格远低于特斯拉最便宜的车型Model 3，比亚迪在欧洲市场的增长势头也十分强劲。在去年前11个月 中，比亚迪在欧洲最大的两个电动车市场德国和英国，注册量均超过特斯拉。同期，特斯拉在欧洲的销量下 ...

点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 自动驾驶之心 "公众号 戳我-> 领取 自动驾驶近30个 方向 学习 路线 >>自动驾驶前沿信息获取 → 自动驾驶之心知识星球 美国电动汽车制造商特斯拉公司2日公布的数据显示，该公司2025年全球交付汽车163.6万辆， 同比下降约8.6%。 这是特斯 拉有史以来首次在全年电动汽车销量上 被中国汽车制造商比亚迪超越。 特斯拉表示， 该公司2025年第四季度共交付41.8万辆汽车，同比下降15.6%，低于分析师预期的约43.4万辆。全年交付量为 163.6万辆，较2024年的179万辆明显下降，也低于市场预期的约165万辆。 我们也来复盘几家头部新势力的销量情况。 零跑汽车 以全年交付596,555辆，同比增长103.1%的成绩，成为新势力最大黑马， 超额完成50万辆的年度目标 ，达成率 119.31%。 小米汽车 以全年交付35万辆、达成率108.57%的成绩，成为新势力中增速最快的品牌。 中国汽车巨头 比亚迪 1月1日发布的数据显示，比亚迪2025年总体新车销量超460万辆，同比增长约8%，其纯电动汽车新车 销量超225万辆，同比增长约28%。比亚迪首次登顶全球纯电动汽车销量榜。 ...

Core Insights - BMW China announced a "systematic value upgrade" on January 1, 2026, marking a significant price reduction across 31 key models, including a notable drop of 301,000 yuan for the flagship electric model i7 M70L, now priced at 1,598,000 yuan [1] - The price cuts are seen as a response to declining market performance in China, with a 11.2% year-on-year drop in sales for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 465,000 units, which is a stark contrast to a global sales increase of 2.4% [3] Price Adjustments - The price reductions set new records in the luxury car market, with the iX1 eDrive25L seeing a 71,900 yuan decrease (24%), now starting at 228,000 yuan, directly competing with mid-range electric models like Tesla Model Y and BYD Tang EV [2] - The flagship 7 Series also experienced significant price cuts, with the 735Li dropping from 919,000 yuan to 808,000 yuan (12% reduction), and the 740Li leading model decreasing to below 900,000 yuan [2] Market Challenges - BMW's market share in China has been under pressure, with the X5 SUV's sales plummeting to 5,498 units in October 2025, ranking 12th, and the 5 Series lagging behind competitors like Audi A6L [3] - The luxury car market is undergoing a transformation, with new entrants like AITO and Li Auto reshaping consumer perceptions, making traditional brand premiums less relevant [4] Competitive Landscape - The rapid penetration of electric vehicles in China is intensifying competition, with retail penetration rates for new energy passenger vehicles reaching 53.6% in the first 11 months of 2025, and peaking at 59.3% in November [5] - Other luxury brands are also facing sales pressures, with Mercedes-Benz reporting a 14% decline in sales in the first half of 2025, prompting price reductions on key models [5] Strategic Response - BMW's price cuts may trigger a chain reaction in the luxury car market, reflecting a broader shift from brand competition to value competition, posing challenges for traditional luxury automakers in balancing brand equity with market share [5]