Group 1: Base Metals - Copper prices have decreased, with Shanghai copper closing at 80,080 yuan/ton, influenced by the conclusion of central bank meetings and a gradual recovery in downstream orders as the peak season progresses [1] - The supply side shows notable contradictions, with domestic smelters undergoing maintenance but not significantly impacting supply due to imports; however, increased downstream orders are expected to boost refined copper consumption [1] - Aluminum prices have also seen a phase adjustment, with Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,760 yuan/ton; the overall theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease, leading to increased theoretical profits for the industry [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with domestic gold averaging 829.33 yuan/gram and silver at 9,964 yuan/kilogram, reflecting market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in COMEX gold and silver prices, with gold trading between 3,650-3,700 USD/oz and silver between 41.5-42.0 USD/oz [2] - Suggested companies for investment include China National Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [2] Group 3: Minor Metals - The domestic market for antimony continues to operate weakly, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots and oxides decreasing by 0.4 million yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] - There is a cautious attitude among major manufacturers regarding price adjustments, and the market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment [3] - Short-term price stability is expected for antimony ingots, with a forecasted range of 172,000-175,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown slight increases, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 0.7% to 571,000 yuan/ton, while heavy rare earth oxides remain stable [4] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, with processing fees rising above 20,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [4] - Companies to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Guangxi Rare Earth [5]

9月18日凌晨两点，美联储又扔出一颗重磅炸弹：宣布降息25个基点！ 这已经是今年以来的第N次降息，累计幅度高达125个基点！ 全球市场都炸开了锅，美股狂飙、黄金暴涨、比特币突破天际…… 但问题来了，这波降息潮是救经济？还是给我们埋下更大的雷？ 我们普通人的钱袋子会不会被通胀吞噬？ 这次降息是意料之中的事情，之前就有消息传出，美联储这次果然又没让大家失望，凌晨准时官宣降息25个基点，直接把利率干到4.00%-4.25%区间！ 要知道，这已经是本轮降息周期的第5次操作，累计降息幅度高达125个基点，相当于把利率砍掉整整四分之一！ 更刺激的是，摩根士丹利、高盛等顶级投行纷纷预测，美联储今年还要继续降息，甚至可能上演"四连降"的疯狂戏码！ 欧洲央行今年已降息8次，瑞士央行甚至玩出"负利率"骚操作，日本央行嘴上喊加息实则偷偷放水！ 全球摆烂大赛的规则很简单：谁不降息，谁的货币就升值，出口企业直接凉凉！ 专家锐评："现在比的是谁更烂，而不是谁更好——这就是现代货币战争的 真相！" 这下全球央行更是集体躺平，欧洲央行已经降息8次，累计降息235个基点，瑞士、加拿大、英国等也跟着疯狂放水！ 这波操作，简直就像全球央行开了一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the Shenyin Wanguo home appliance index rising by 1.6% while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.4% [2][3]. - Key companies such as Sanhua Intelligent Controls (20.7%), Zhejiang Meida (11.3%), and Yitian Intelligent (10.5%) led the gains, while companies like Bear Electric (-6.2%) and Beiqing Song (-3.0%) faced declines [4][2]. - The report highlights the implementation of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, with 19 specific measures proposed by nine government departments [9]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% is expected to provide greater operational space for China's monetary policy [10]. Data Observations - In August, the offline average price of white goods increased year-on-year, with air conditioners seeing a retail volume increase of 2.2% and a retail value increase of 2.9% [30]. - The average price of air conditioners reached 4,138 yuan, up 0.32% year-on-year, while the market share of Haier increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.8% [30][32]. - For refrigerators, retail volume decreased by 0.4% in August, but retail value increased by 3.8%, with the average price rising by 2.4% to 6,438 yuan [32]. - In the kitchen appliance segment, the retail volume of range hoods increased by 15.7% and retail value by 22.5%, with an average price increase of 5.2% to 4,246 yuan [36]. Investment Highlights - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. **White Goods**: The reversal of real estate policies is expected to benefit the white goods sector, characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth. The "trade-in" policy is anticipated to catalyze demand [2]. 2. **Exports**: Companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are recommended due to their stable income growth from large customer orders and expanding automotive parts business [2]. 3. **Core Components**: The report suggests investing in companies like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment, which are positioned to benefit from the increased demand for core components in the white goods sector [2].

昨晚，大锤终于落地。 美联储正式宣布降息25个基点， 联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%-4.5%降至4.00%-4.25%。 这是本年度美联储第一次降息，符合市场的预期。 既没有超预期的降息50个基点，也没有低于预期的不降息。 宣布降息之后，市场反应很迅速，美元指数短线一度大幅下探到96.4，离岸人民币兑美元短期升破7.09，美股同时也短线拉升。 但很快，市场就来了一波过山车，从"激情澎湃"迅速回归稳定， 收盘的时候，美股是微跌的，美元指数也回到了97。 市场整体的反应，并不是很强烈。 说明老美那边的资本市场已经 提前消化了降息25个基点的预期。 所以尘埃落定之后，欧美那边的市场变化反而没有预期中那么大。 欧美市场的冷静，明显影响了东大这边的市场情绪。 所以东大这边，也来了一波过山车。 早上的时候，港股恒生指数和大A盘中大涨，大A一度接近3900点。 但下午马上风向转变，指数全部转头向下。 最后大A收盘的时候，下调了1.13%。 为什么会出现这种过山车的情况？ 主要原因有两个： 第一，大A部分板块已经提前消化了降息的利好。 降息前几天，科技板块以及科技概念的票子，都已经大涨过一波了。 市场上几个最出圈的票，都 ...

当地时间周五，美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，在本周利率决议前，他仅与总统特朗普进行了简短 交谈，并未受到任何关于如何投票的压力。 在本周的美联储利率决议上，在12名有投票权的美联储官员中，11人支持降息25个基点。而米兰是唯一 的反对者，在本周被确认为美联储理事会成员之前，他曾担任白宫高级顾问。 米兰主张更大幅度地降息50个基点，他称这一决定完全出于独立判断。"我会根据自己对数据和经济的 解读做独立分析，我所做的就只有这些，也仅限于这些。" 米兰强调："周二早上他打电话来祝贺我就职，仅此而已。我没有与他讨论如何投票，也没有透露我在 《经济预测摘要》中'点阵图'的位置。" 点阵图显示，在19名与会者中，有7人预计今年不会再降息，另有两人预计只会再降息一次。这些预测 还显示，在目前对经济活动稳健的展望下，大多数官员预计明年不会再多次降息。 自特朗普今年1月开启第二个任期以来，围绕美联储独立性的质疑不断升温。 特朗普一直强烈要求美联储大幅降息，并公开对主席鲍威尔进行人身攻击，称其为"太慢先生"。相比之 下，历届政府对美联储的压力通常更为低调。 与此同时，特朗普还试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，并表示在明年挑选鲍威尔 ...

【导读】市场震荡 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家周末好，今晚简单关注一下海外的市场表现。 市场震荡 9月19日，美股三大指数上涨势头减弱，走势震荡，道指接近平盘，标普500指数微涨，纳指涨约 0.3%。 苹果领涨，上涨约2%，其最新款iPhone已在全球开售。特斯拉股价也上涨近2%。 | 了 筛选 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □* | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲骨文 | M | 302.65 | +2.03% | | us ORCL | | | | | 苹果 | | 242.39 | +1.90% | | US AAPL | | | | | 特斯拉 | | 424.02 | +1.72% | | US TSLA | | | | | 亮飞 | | 1220.10 | +1.02% | | us NFLX | | | | | 亚马逊 | | 233.11 | +0.81% | | US AMZN | | | | | 微软 | | 511.55 | +0.61% | | us MSFT | | | | | 阿斯麦 | | 929.84 | +0.22% | | us ASML | ...

特朗普不仅频繁批评鲍威尔，还寻求罢免美联储理事库克，并表示将对明年鲍威尔继任人选进行"宽松 政策立场测试"，要求候选人支持进一步降息。 外界曾质疑米兰担任理事前曾是总统经济顾问委员会负责人，却只采取"休假"而非辞职方式离职，可能 存在潜在利益冲突。对此，米兰回应称这些担忧"有些可笑"，并表示他只会任职至2026年1月。 "如果总统告诉我，他希望我在2026年1月后继续留任，我会立刻辞职，没有任何犹豫。"米兰说道。他 补充称，外界质疑反而促使他计划在下周一的讲话中"详细解释"自己与其他理事观点为何差异巨大，并 向公众进行全面说明。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事米兰周五接受采访时表示，在本周的利率决议前，他仅与美国总统特朗 普进行了简短通话，并未受到任何投票压力。 米兰透露，特朗普于周二上午致电祝贺他担任美联储理事，但双方并未讨论利率决策或经济预测相关内 容。米兰强调："我没有和他谈论我的投票立场。" 在本周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联储以11比1的投票结果决定降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%。米兰是唯一的反对票，他主张一次性降息50个基点，立场明显更为宽 松。他的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan expressed his independent stance on interest rate decisions, opposing a 25 basis point cut and advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, emphasizing no external pressure from President Trump [1] Group 1 - Milan had a brief conversation with President Trump before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which was solely to offer congratulations and did not involve discussions about voting positions [1] - Milan's decision to vote against the 25 basis point cut was made independently, highlighting his commitment to the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts and decision-making process [1] - The conversation with Trump did not touch upon Milan's position in the Federal Reserve's economic projections or the "dot plot" [1]

美联储理事米兰：我是唯一支持降息50个基点的人。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and believes that similar cuts in the last two meetings of the year would be appropriate [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed decided to lower the policy interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% following a significant drop in monthly job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [2][3] - Kashkari initially thought only two rate cuts of 25 basis points were necessary for the year but changed his view due to declining job creation [2] - Other Fed officials have differing opinions, with some suggesting only one more cut or no cuts at all, indicating a more cautious stance on inflation [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Kashkari expressed concerns about the risk of a sharp rise in unemployment, which justifies the need for the Fed to take action to support the labor market [2] - He noted that the risk of tariffs causing a significant rise in inflation is low unless there are substantial increases in tariff rates or other supply-side shocks [2] - Kashkari believes the neutral interest rate has risen to 3.1%, suggesting that the Fed's policy is not as tight as previously thought [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Kashkari indicated that if the labor market weakens more rapidly than expected, the Fed may need to cut rates more quickly [3] - He also mentioned that if the labor market proves resilient or inflation unexpectedly rises, the Fed should be prepared to pause or maintain the current policy rate [3]