会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费 新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。高质量推动"两重"建设，激发民间投资活力，扩大有效 投资。 新华社北京7月30日电 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十 届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国 民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共 中央总书记习近平主持会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展 ...

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, contributing significantly to economic performance[3] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[3] - The need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy was highlighted, including accelerating government bond issuance and promoting a decline in social financing costs[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report stresses the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption, particularly through recently introduced childcare subsidies[4] - Focus on effective investment and the implementation of policies to optimize market competition and regulate local investment attraction behaviors[4] Risk Management - Key areas for risk prevention include addressing risks in the real estate sector, managing local government debt, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets[4] - The report identifies several external risks, including uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic expectations[3] Strategic Outlook - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will focus on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a critical transition period for economic strategy[2] - The meeting acknowledged the complex and changing development environment, emphasizing the need to leverage domestic advantages while adapting to external challenges[2]

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议反映了外部环境急剧恶化已不再是中央的基准预期，上半年 GDP 增速的改善也使得政策的重点从稳增长向促改革、防风险转移，我们认 ...

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-07-31 弱化风险，关注内需政策发力 ——政治局会议系列五 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济形 势和经济工作。 核心观点 ■ 总体判断：经济良好，质量成效 经济判断：经济运行定调积极。下半年经济发展工作要求"巩固"和"拓展"。 经济工作：下半年宏观政策总体保持延续性。关注全球经济政策之间的协同性，以及 中美经贸谈判的相对积极的可能性。 宏观政策：政策从"用好用足"转向"落实落细"；货币政策不再提"适时降准降息"；加力 经济大省挑大梁。 ■ 重点工作：降低风险，以我为主 内需：依然是重点。（1）在消费领域"深入实施"提振消费专项行动，且从方向上这部分 消费是来源于"保障改善民生"；从结构上除了"扩大"商品消费，也要"培育"服务消费。 （2）在投资领域，相比较 4 月份扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设，7 月 份政治局会议仅强调了高质量推动"两 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need for a stable yet progressive approach to economic work in the second half of the year, focusing on maintaining policy continuity and enhancing flexibility to boost consumption and stabilize employment and market expectations [2][4]. Economic Situation and Work Plans - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the current economic situation and plans for the second half of the year, with input from various democratic parties and non-party representatives [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of a proactive macroeconomic policy to support economic recovery and stability, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and deepening reforms [4][5]. Suggestions from Democratic Parties - Leaders from various democratic parties and organizations expressed support for the Central Committee's analysis of the economic situation and provided suggestions on promoting technological and industrial innovation, enhancing service consumption, and improving social security for flexible employment groups [3][4]. Key Challenges and Opportunities - The meeting acknowledged ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, urging a correct understanding of the situation and the need to leverage development opportunities while consolidating the recovery momentum [4][5]. - Emphasis was placed on the necessity of continuous efforts in macroeconomic policy, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [4][5]. Expectations for Future Collaboration - The Central Committee expressed hopes for unified understanding and collaboration among democratic parties to promote high-quality development and gather actionable insights for economic policies [5].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.77% to 11203.03. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62% to 2367.68 [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (+2.05%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.84%), Media (+0.99%), Food & Beverage (+0.86%), and Social Services (+0.65%) [3][4] - The sectors that underperformed were Electric Equipment (-2.22%), Computer (-1.59%), Automotive (-1.27%), Defense & Military (-1.06%), and Communication (-0.95%) [3][4] Concept Performance - The leading concept sectors were Combustible Ice (+3.07%), Artemisinin (+2.33%), Dairy (+1.84%), Corn (+1.38%), and Community Group Buying (+1.27%) [3][4] - The lagging concept sectors included Electronic ID (-2.82%), Digital Currency (-2.81%), Mobile Payment (-2.56%), Explosive Concept (-2.27%), and Cross-Border Payment (CIPS) (-2.02%) [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to remain supported by positive macroeconomic policies, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [5][6] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. tariff policy changes are highlighted as key factors to watch [6]

本报特约评论员 "十四五"规划收官之年，外部环境急剧变化。单边主义明显抬头，保护主义卷土重来，严重损害国际经 贸秩序、冲击全球经济发展……越是挑战来袭，越是检验一国经济的成色，越是考验应对变局的能力。 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好， 新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加 强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年上半年，国内生产总值超66万亿元，同比增长5.3%，主要指标好于 预期，"稳"的态势持续，"进"的步伐坚定，"新"的动能累积，"畅"的循环改善。事实表明，尽管外部环 境更趋复杂严峻，但中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力大，支撑高质量发展的积极因素在不断积 累，完全有底气、有信心、有能力应对外部挑战。 时钟滴答作响，离"十四五"规划收官越来越近。综观上半年这份来之不易、含金量高的发展成绩单，我 们看到了全球第二大经济体强大的底气与韧性，读出了中国经济的确定性与稳定性，也增强了决战 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) government released the "Hong Kong Business Environment Report," highlighting significant global changes and Hong Kong's proactive approach to innovation and breakthroughs [1] - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, stated that the economy is showing a steady improvement, with a 3.1% growth in the first quarter and an expectation of continued growth in the second quarter [1] - The implementation of the National Security Law has created a safe and stable environment for the city, ensuring the rights and freedoms of citizens while positioning Hong Kong as a global investment safe haven [1] Economic Management and Strategy - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to managing various risks with a bottom-line thinking approach, aiming to promote steady economic progress [1] - Hong Kong aims to actively integrate into the national development framework while maintaining a high level of internationalization, enhancing regional and global collaboration [1] - The government plans to play a crucial role as an important node in the domestic and international dual circulation, participating in national strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development [1]

● 新华社北京7月30日电 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十 五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共中央总书记习近平主持 会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。 ...