Group 1 - The European Union (EU) imposed significant fines on Apple and Meta, with Apple fined €500 million and Meta €200 million, citing violations of the EU's Digital Markets Act [2][4] - The fines are seen as a response to the ongoing trade tensions between the EU and the US, particularly following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on the EU [1][5] - The EU's actions are part of a broader strategy to assert its regulatory authority over US tech giants and to protect its digital market [6][7] Group 2 - The EU's Digital Markets Act, which came into effect in March 2024, provides a legal framework for regulating the behavior of large tech companies operating in Europe [6][7] - The EU has identified a trade surplus of nearly €200 billion with the US in goods, but a service trade deficit exceeding €100 billion, highlighting the importance of US tech companies in the European market [5] - Major US tech firms, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle, dominate over half of the cloud services market in Europe, indicating their significant market presence [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" aims to provide a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore win-win transformation paths amidst global industrial chain restructuring [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - The discussion highlighted skepticism about the inevitability of conflict between the U.S. and China, with experts arguing that both nations prefer peace due to the catastrophic consequences of war [3][4]. - Concerns were raised about the U.S. perceiving China as a threat to its global dominance, with experts asserting that China's rise does not equate to a desire for hegemony [5][6]. Group 2: Trade and Globalization - Experts emphasized the importance of free trade for Chinese enterprises going global, suggesting that China should champion globalization as the U.S. retreats from its previous stance [5][6]. - The trade volume between the U.S. and China has significantly increased over the past two decades, indicating a complex interdependence that challenges simplistic narratives about trade conflicts [6]. Group 3: Challenges for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies are encouraged to adopt strategies similar to successful German firms in China, focusing on localization and collaboration with local partners to better understand market demands [7][8]. - The need for thorough market research and understanding of local consumer preferences was highlighted, with examples of successful Chinese brands adapting their offerings for foreign markets [7]. Group 4: China's Global Contribution - The discussion concluded with the assertion that China's greatest contribution to the world is to manage its own affairs effectively, thereby fulfilling its international responsibilities without seeking to lead others [8].

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 1 日，万得全 A 开盘震荡运行后有所回落，午后震荡回升，收涨 0.27%， 近 5 成个股飘红，指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘 分别上涨 0.17%、0.21%、0.33%、0.28%，中小盘股表现更优。指数期货表现整体 弱于现货，IF、IH 主力合约分别收涨 0.01%、0.03%，IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.07%、0.25%（按前一交易日收盘价为基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the rise in gold prices was due to multiple factors. The dollar index dropped to its lowest since February 2022, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict increased market risk - aversion. However, the upcoming release of US June non - farm payroll data on Thursday could potentially suppress gold prices. So, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed higher. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, as the tariff war is nearing its end [7][8]. - For gold in the long - term, the overall direction is still bullish, though it is currently undergoing adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year [12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are back in a state of inventory accumulation. Technically, it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15][16]. - For glass, it still awaits the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it should be considered as oscillating with a downward bias [20][21]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectations of US biofuel policies and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering the mid - term seasonal increase in production and inventory, when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, short positions with a light position are recommended [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market environment factors such as the drop in the dollar index and the decline in the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with geopolitical tensions, led to the rise in gold prices on July 1, 2025. But the upcoming US non - farm payroll data may affect gold prices. It is advisable to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - In the long - term, the overall trend of gold is bullish. Although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12]. 3.2 A - shares - The A - share market had a trend of opening lower and closing higher. With the tariff war approaching its end, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise [7][8]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory. Technically, it is showing a downward - biased oscillation [15][16]. 3.4 Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it is in a downward - biased oscillation [20][21]. 3.5 Soybean Oil - Due to long - term US biofuel policy expectations and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering mid - term seasonal production and inventory increases, short positions with a light position are recommended when the price reaches 8050 - 8000 [24].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - Federal Reserve official Bostic reiterated the expectation of a rate cut within the year, which initially pressured gold prices around $3295 [1] - The announcement of seeking a successor for Fed Chair Powell by the U.S. Treasury Secretary raised market concerns [1] - Trump's comments on the trade war with China contrasted sharply with China's stance, casting a shadow over U.S.-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Following the Treasury Secretary's comments, gold prices rebounded, showing a bullish trend after finding support at $3250 [1] - The key resistance level for gold today is identified at $3320, which will determine market direction [1] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical easing has reduced potential supply risks, with expectations of maintaining an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [1] - Seasonal demand from summer travel in Europe and the U.S. is expected to boost oil consumption, with positive signals from tariff negotiations [2] - The oil market is currently in a range between $63.95 and $66.90, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [2] Group 4: Stock Market Trends - The Nasdaq index continues its upward trend, although pressure from Trump's comments has increased market volatility [4] - The dollar index has weakened, breaking below the previous low of 96.97, indicating a bearish trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The forum aims to provide a high-end platform for Chinese enterprises to address challenges in globalization and explore paths for ecological win-win transformation [1] Group 1: Global Trade and Relations - Gao Zhikai emphasized China's commitment to defending free trade and the inevitability of peace between China and the U.S. [2] - The U.S. is concerned about China potentially surpassing it, with fears rooted in the belief that a dominant China would threaten global stability [2] - Data indicates that China has surpassed the U.S. in the production of over 200 products, including steel and automobiles, with some products accounting for more than half of global production [2] - China's economy, when measured by purchasing power parity, is estimated to be 125% to 130% of the U.S. economy [2] - Elon Musk has predicted that by the middle of this century, China's economy could be twice the size of the U.S. economy [2] Group 2: Historical Context and Perspective - Gao Zhikai clarified that regardless of its strength, China does not aspire to dominate the world, citing historical perspectives on leadership and governance [2] - The term "霸" (hegemony) is viewed negatively in Chinese history, with a focus on benevolent leadership rather than dominance [2] - The U.S. is portrayed as a heavily armed superpower, making the notion of China attempting to "rape" the U.S. nonsensical [3]

Core Viewpoint - The forum aims to provide a high-end platform for Chinese enterprises to tackle challenges in going global amidst the restructuring of global industrial chains, focusing on collaborative and sustainable transformation paths [1]. Group 1: Globalization and Industry Trends - The current global landscape is characterized by a shift from extensive manufacturing in China to a "China + 1" and "China + N" model, indicating a transition from offshore outsourcing to nearshore and friendshoring [3]. - The trend of Chinese enterprises going global is driven by both the need for business development and changes in the international landscape [3]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Chinese Enterprises - Chinese enterprises possess strong competitive advantages but also face challenges, particularly from other Chinese competitors in international markets, which can lead to significant profit erosion despite high production capacity [4]. - The need for high-quality globalization is emphasized, requiring enterprises to enhance their soft power and strategic planning capabilities [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Enterprises should focus on comprehensive strategic planning, moving from product export to overall corporate globalization, and strengthen cross-cultural management to better understand global perspectives [3]. - Sustainable development is crucial, with a focus on avoiding political risks and understanding the political dynamics of host countries [3]. - Brand development is highlighted as a key factor for successful international expansion, with an emphasis on creating world-class brands that respect local cultures and values [4].

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, there was a divergence in the non - ferrous metals market. Shanghai copper and zinc rose slightly after surging and then falling back, while alumina and tin fell by over 6% and 5% respectively, and aluminum, lead, and nickel fell by 0.4 - 1.4%. The domestic market was closed on Monday this week due to the Dragon Boat Festival, and in the overseas market, the COMEX copper price soared as the market expected higher costs for US copper imports due to the repeated tariff war [9]. - For copper, short - term attention should be paid to the follow - up development of US tariff policies, and the mid - term upward space of Shanghai copper depends on the position - increasing strength above 78,000 [10]. - For aluminum, the decline in alumina restricts the rebound of aluminum prices, while the continuous decline in SHFE and LME aluminum inventories supports the price, and Shanghai aluminum is currently oscillating between 19,700 - 20,400 [21]. - For zinc and lead, after the holiday, attention should be paid to the positive impact of the deep BACK structure and spot premium on the zinc market during continuous inventory reduction, and the lead market should note the lead - zinc linkage despite its continued weakness [26]. - For nickel and tin, nickel fell last week, driving stainless steel down, and the tin market tumbled by over 5% due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and Africa. News of the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining on Monday had a certain positive impact on the LME tin price [35]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Non - Ferrous Futures Price Weekly Statistics - **Domestic Non - Ferrous Futures Prices**: Shanghai copper rose 0.31% to 77,600 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.42% to 20,070 yuan/ton, alumina dropped 6.53% to 2,962 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc increased 0.05% to 22,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead decreased 1.42% to 16,620 yuan/ton, Shanghai nickel fell 1.30% to 121,100 yuan/ton, stainless steel dropped 1.48% to 12,685 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin decreased 5.45% to 250,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME and COMEX Non - Ferrous Futures Prices**: LME copper fell 1.17% to 9,498 dollars/ton, COMEX copper dropped 3.35% to 4.7020 dollars/pound, LME aluminum decreased 0.79% to 2,444 dollars/ton, LME zinc fell 3.02% to 2,620 dollars/ton, LME lead decreased 1.66% to 1,958 dollars/ton, LME nickel dropped 2.29% to 15,237 dollars/ton, and LME tin decreased 7.21% to 30,328 dollars/ton [2]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Non - Ferrous Inventories**: SHFE copper inventory increased 7.22% to 105,791 tons, SHFE aluminum inventory decreased 11.93% to 124,433 tons, SHFE zinc inventory decreased 4.00% to 42,310 tons, SHFE lead inventory decreased 3.98% to 46,500 tons, SHFE nickel inventory increased 0.45% to 27,075 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased 4.00% to 8,107 tons [2]. - **LME and COMEX Non - Ferrous Inventories**: LME copper inventory decreased 10.00% to 149,875 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased 3.45% to 180,629 short tons, LME aluminum inventory decreased 3.72% to 372,525 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased 10.93% to 139,150 tons, LME lead inventory decreased 3.26% to 286,175 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased 0.76% to 199,380 tons, and LME tin inventory increased 0.56% to 2,680 tons [3]. - **Domestic Spot Premiums**: The Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton, the Shanghai aluminum spot premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton, the Shanghai zinc spot premium remained unchanged at 165 yuan/ton, the Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, the Shanghai nickel spot premium increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 1500 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai tin spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Foreign Spot Premiums**: The LME copper (0 - 3) spot premium increased by 18.94 dollars/ton to 50.08 dollars/ton, the LME aluminum (0 - 3) spot premium increased by 0.85 dollars/ton to - 5.75 dollars/ton, the LME zinc (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 1.88 dollars/ton to - 23.43 dollars/ton, the LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 6.61 dollars/ton to - 24.26 dollars/ton, the LME nickel (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 7.28 dollars/ton to - 195.62 dollars/ton, and the LME tin (0 - 3) spot premium increased by 57 dollars/ton to - 78 dollars/ton [7]. - **COMEX Copper Fund Net Positions**: The COMEX copper fund net position increased by 7.33% to 22,581 [8]. 2. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The offshore RMB exchange rate increased by 0.0343 to 7.2065, the US dollar index increased by 0.3162 to 99.4393, the US dollar against the Japanese yen increased by 1.4920 to 144.0615, and the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.1000 to 4.4100 [9]. 3. Analysis and Outlook - **Copper**: Last week, Shanghai copper surged and then fell back. Buying enthusiasm was insufficient above 78,000. The SHFE inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory continued to decline. The LME three - month forward price premium over the spot price rose from 30 dollars to over 50 dollars. The COMEX copper price soared due to expectations of higher US copper import costs. Short - term attention should be paid to US tariff policies, and the mid - term upward space of Shanghai copper depends on the position - increasing strength above 78,000 [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: This week, alumina prices dropped significantly as market speculation cooled. The domestic bauxite port inventory reached a new high. The decline in alumina restricted the rebound of aluminum prices, while the continuous decline in SHFE and LME aluminum inventories supported the price. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating between 19,700 - 20,400 [21]. - **Zinc and Lead**: Last Tuesday, Shanghai zinc rebounded rapidly but the rebound was not sustainable. It is currently oscillating between 22,000 - 22,700. Shanghai lead oscillated downward, hitting a new closing low since April 10. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the positive impact on zinc during continuous inventory reduction, and the lead market should note the lead - zinc linkage [26]. - **Nickel and Tin**: Last week, nickel fell, driving stainless steel down. The tin market tumbled by over 5% due to expected resumptions of production. News of the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining had a positive impact on the LME tin price [35].

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore win-win transformation paths [1] - The summit was co-hosted by the Globalization Think Tank (CCG) and aimed to facilitate resource connections and dialogue on rules amidst the deep restructuring of global industrial chains [1] Group 2 - Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of CCG, emphasized the importance of defending free trade and the inevitability of peace between China and the U.S. despite current tensions [3] - He highlighted that the U.S. is concerned about China potentially surpassing it and is determined to maintain its position as the world's leading power, indicating a reluctance to allow China to set global standards [3] - Gao urged for clear communication with the U.S. to alleviate its fears, asserting that China does not seek to dominate and that both nations should coexist peacefully without conflict [3]