Market Performance - On May 14, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.72%, S&P 500 up 0.1%, and Dow Jones down 0.21% [1][5] - Large tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia and Tesla both gaining over 4% [1][7] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.17%, outperforming the broader market [11] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with Tencent Music up over 15% and Li Auto up nearly 3% [1][11] - Alibaba, Baidu, and TAL Education also rose close to 2% [1][11] Commodity Market - COMEX gold futures fell 1.91% to $3185.7 per ounce, while silver futures dropped 2.23% to $32.37 per ounce [4] - International crude oil futures also declined, with WTI June futures down 0.82% to $63.15 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson warned that new tariff policies could increase inflation uncertainty [4][16] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized the importance of not reacting to daily market fluctuations, indicating a stable economic outlook [17] Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's Shanghai factory exported nearly 30,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in April, marking a one-year high [11] - Nvidia and AMD are expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia, with potential revenues estimated between $3 billion to $5 billion annually [11] - Tencent reported Q1 2025 revenue of 180.02 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in its advertising and gaming segments [14][15]

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨包芳鸣 刘雪莹 见习编辑李益文 北京时间5月1 4日晚，美股三大指数高开，随后走势分化。 数据截至14日23:05 AI概念股走高，AMD一度升至1月3 0日以来盘中最高水平，超微电脑涨近1 7%。 超威半导体(AMD) W AMD.O 117.900 量 4483.48万 股本16.21亿 市盈 85.8 万得 盘口 换 2.77% 市值1912亿 市净 3.30 +5.440 +4.84% 日K 五日 盘中・ O 叠加 设均线 MA 5:108.605↑ 10:103.804↑ 20:97.848↑ 前复权 127.124 122.520- 89 -76.480 + << 1 71.876 2025-03-04 04-28 03-24 04-09 05-14 数据截至14日晚23:05 热门中概股多数上涨，腾讯音乐高开后直线拉升，目前涨超11% 。 | 腾讯音乐 く コ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | TME.N | | | | 16 375 量988.21万 股本30.98亿 市盈 19.1 | 万得 | | | +1.685 +11.47% 换 1.38% ...

耶鲁预算实验室的数据显示，即使考虑到最新的政策变化，美国的平均有效关税税率仍高达17.8%，为 1934年以来的最高水平，比美国总统特朗普第二任期前的平均有效关税税率提高了15.4个百分点。 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 美国关键通胀数据或许正迎来最后的宁静。 美国4月CPI连续三个月低于预期。当地时间5月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国4月CPI同 比增长2.3%，为2021年2月以来新低，市场预期为2.4%；4月CPI环比增长0.2%，高于上月的-0.1%，低 于市场预期的0.3%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美国4月核心CPI同比增长2.8%，符合预期，保持在2021年3月以来 的最低水平；4月核心CPI环比增长0.2%，低于市场预期的0.3%。 不过，企业终将把更高的关税成本转嫁出去，未来仍存在通胀上行风险。经济学家普遍预计，关税影响 的顶峰可能会在夏季到来。 通胀为何意外平稳？ 整体来看，美国4月份消费者价格涨幅低于预期，服装和新车价格平稳，显示企业迄今尚未急于把更高 的关税成本转嫁给消费者。 最新数据凸显了美国经济的两大潜在趋势。一方面，受到关税上调影响的新车、服装等商品类别 ...

在美国纵容特朗普以"解放日"关税震惊全球不到一周后，前圣路易斯联储主席吉姆・布拉德（Jim Bullard）在电视上说出了大多数经济学家在噩梦中才会提到的一个词：《斯姆特-霍利关税法》 （TheSmoot-Hawley Tariff Act）。 1930年的《斯穆特 - 霍利关税法》被视为美国国会历史上最"灾难性"的立法之一，这是一项保护主义贸 易政策，提高了数千种美国进口商品的关税，引发了一场全球贸易战，历史学家称这场贸易战加剧了大 萧条。 布拉德在接受全国性电视媒体采访时警告称，特朗普的关税"显著增加了"出现类似《斯姆特-霍利关税 法》后果的风险。 布拉德在接受Bankrate的独家采访时进一步阐述了他登上头条新闻的言论，他说："其他国家没有通过 谈判来回应，而是提高了他们的关税，然后在1930年至1931年期间，全球贸易出现了崩溃。这在很大程 度上加剧了大萧条，所以我们不希望出现那种情况。没人希望那样，但这是（关税举措）可能导致的后 果之一。" 从那以后，所谓的对等关税已暂停实施90天。这些举措让布拉德更加乐观地认为，特朗普政府能够在对 美国经济造成不可挽回的损害之前达成贸易协议。 他补充道："但他们必 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is expected to experience significant price increases, potentially surpassing $4500 per ounce due to various economic factors, including anticipated inflation in the U.S. and ongoing central bank gold purchases [3][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the gold ETF fund has decreased by 0.81%, with a latest price of 7.26 yuan [3]. - The fund's latest scale reached 29.08 billion yuan, with a total of 3.975 billion shares, marking a one-year high [3]. - Over the past five days, the fund has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 388 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of approximately 77.53 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Historical Returns - The gold ETF fund has achieved a net value increase of 94.89% over the past five years, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - Since its inception, the fund's highest monthly return was 10.62%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 16.53% [4]. - The fund has a historical three-year profit probability of 100% and an annual profit percentage of 80% [4]. Group 3: Risk and Fees - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [4]. - The maximum drawdown for the year to date is 8.14%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.30% [4]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 2.92, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4].

最近，全球经济舞台上似乎吹来了一阵暖风。 先是中美贸易战迎来了90天的"休战期"，这让紧张的市场情绪得到了缓解，对经济衰退的担忧也随之减 轻。 紧接着，备受关注的美国4月份消费者价格指数（CPI）公布，数据显示通胀年化率降至2.3%，这已经 是连续第三个月出现降温，离美联储设定的2%通胀目标越来越近。 贸易战暂停，通胀数据向好，这看起来都是积极信号。 特朗普也一再向美联储施压，这不昨晚又喊话了，称美联储一再推迟降息"對已經準備好開花結果的美 國不公平"。 再者，当前的经济数据也呈现出喜忧参半的局面。尽管美国经济在2025年第一季度出现了0.3%的收 缩，但4月份的就业报告却显示劳动力市场依然强劲，新增就业岗位超出了预期。 这种矛盾的信号增加了经济前景的复杂性。美联储主席鲍威尔自己也坦言，他对经济路径的不确定性感 到"非常高"。 华尔街的主流观点也倾向于美联储会保持谨慎。包括高盛和德意志银行在内的多家机构都预计，美联储 首次降息的时间会比之前预期的更晚，可能要到12月才会开始，而且降息的步伐也会比较缓慢。 他们认为，随着经济增长保持稳定，失业率没有急剧上升，对激进降息来刺激经济的需求就没那么迫切 了。 那么，是 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.33% as of the report date [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.46%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.94% [1] - Notably, Huaxia Fund announced a reduction in trading fees for the Gold Stock ETF (159562) and its linked funds, effective May 15, 2025, lowering management fees from 0.50% to 0.15% and custody fees from 0.10% to 0.05%, making it the lowest fee level in the market for similar products [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities believes that the core drivers for gold price increases in 2025, amid U.S. "stagflation" expectations, have not yet fully played out, indicating significant potential for the current gold upcycle [1] - The firm has constructed a gold space measurement framework, predicting that increased "stagflation" pressures in the U.S. will initiate a new round of gold price increases [1] - The outlook for gold stocks remains positive, with expectations of a "Davis Double" effect combined with undervaluation and increased institutional allocation, maintaining a "bottom layout" judgment [1] Group 3 - Huatai Futures noted that while the Federal Reserve is currently holding steady, other central banks are still engaging in rate cuts, leading to a temporary recovery in market risk sentiment [2] - Despite concerns about U.S. economic recession easing, the market's rate cut expectations have adjusted to 56 basis points, aligning with Federal Reserve forecasts, suggesting limited negative impact on gold prices from interest rate logic [2] - Tianfeng Futures indicated that the recent alleviation of external disturbances may prolong the time needed for gold prices to rebound, as credit logic's headwinds could continue to develop [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and the implications of financial pressure on the U.S. economy. Core Points and Arguments - Current U.S. economy may be in a state of stagflation, with upcoming CPI data and Q2 results likely leaning towards inflation, indicating significant financial pressure that could influence Federal Reserve decisions [1][2] - Financial pressure index is a crucial measure of financing conditions, default risk, and risk appetite, impacting economic conditions through short-term interest rates affecting long-term rates, which is a key focus for the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Financial market volatility can deteriorate consumer spending willingness, and tightening financial conditions may affect manufacturing investment [1][4] - Historical events over the past decade, such as China's economic slowdown and unexpected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, have led to increased financial pressure, prompting a dovish shift in policy [1][5][6][7][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider rate cuts in July, October, and December, with a higher probability of a cut in July, influenced by stock market pressures or issues with real interest rates [1][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The impact of tariffs on inflation is often temporary, and the Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on economic downturn risks rather than inflationary pressures [1][4] - The financial pressure index reflects the overall economic stability, and its increase has historically signaled a shift towards dovish policies by the Federal Reserve [1][9] - The Federal Reserve's past policy adjustments, including a significant rate hike in 2018 that led to a 20% drop in the stock market, illustrate the delicate balance between monetary policy and market stability [1][10] - Future predictions for 2025 suggest a shift from stagflation risks to economic weakness risks, with potential rate cuts anticipated based on market conditions and economic data [1][11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a record influx of foreign investment into Japanese stocks and bonds in April, driven by the aftermath of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies, positioning Japan as a global safe haven for "de-dollarization" trades [1][2] - In April, foreign investors net purchased 8.2 trillion yen (approximately 57 billion USD) in Japanese securities, marking the largest monthly buying spree since 2005 and more than three times the average for April over the past 20 years [1] - The unprecedented buying frenzy included net purchases of 25.5 billion USD in Japanese stocks (the largest amount since April 2023) and net purchases of 31.5 billion USD in Japanese long-term bonds (the largest scale since July 2022) [1] Group 2 - The surge in Japanese asset purchases occurred against a backdrop of global investor concerns regarding U.S. policy shifts, trade wars, and Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting a potential influence of de-dollarization trends [2] - There are indications that foreign central banks may be entering the Japanese bond market as part of diversification strategies, seeking liquid markets, with Japan standing out in this regard [2] - A recent survey by Bank of America indicated that fund managers almost unanimously believe Trump's economic policies could lead the U.S. into stagflation, with shorting the dollar becoming a popular trade among them [2]

金十数据5月13日讯，美国银行对全球基金经理的调查显示，5月份，人们对全球经济增长停滞、通胀上 升（即"滞胀"）的感知风险略有缓解。调查显示，81%的投资者预计未来12个月将出现滞胀。相比之 下，4月份的调查结果为90%，是2022年11月以来的最高水平。最新的调查还显示，9%的人预计经济将 停滞不前，或者增长和通胀将低于趋势水平。约3%的人预计经济增长和通货膨胀都将高于趋势水平， 而3%的人预计经济增长强劲、通货膨胀率低的"金发姑娘"局面将出现。 美国银行调查显示，对滞胀的担忧略有缓解 ...