Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has experienced a dramatic rise amidst a generally weak global financial market, driven by strong demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets and inflation hedges, with prices increasing across the board [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices have surged nearly 43% year-to-date, breaking through the $3,700 per ounce mark, while silver has reached a 14-year high of over $46 per ounce [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium prices have also hit significant highs, with platinum reaching a 12-year peak [1]. - The precious metals sector has outperformed other popular assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, making it the best-performing asset class in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including supply-demand dynamics, market risk aversion, and macroeconomic monetary policies [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government's new tariffs on imports have bolstered market risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [2]. - Concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market and economic uncertainties have prompted investors to seek refuge in precious metals [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Gold Council reported a rapid increase in global gold ETF holdings, reaching 3,779.4 tons, the highest since August 2022 [2][4]. - Structural imbalances in supply and demand are evident across various precious metals, with strong demand from central banks for gold and increasing industrial demand for silver [3][4]. - Silver's supply is constrained due to rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics, while platinum is expected to face a supply shortfall of 85,000 ounces by 2025 [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Impact - The macroeconomic environment, particularly expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar, has significantly enhanced the attractiveness of precious metals [3][4]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy has led to increased inflows of investment and speculative funds into the precious metals market [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Investment institutions remain optimistic about the future of precious metals, with expectations of further price increases driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. debt risks [5]. - Despite high current silver prices, the underlying logic supporting gold's rise also applies to silver, with persistent supply gaps likely to drive silver prices higher [5]. - The outlook for platinum remains positive due to its safe-haven appeal and supply vulnerabilities, while palladium faces downward pressure from shifting demand dynamics in the automotive industry [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy recommendation is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [5] Core View of the Report - International risk aversion has increased, with geopolitical factors and tariff disruptions leading to a rise in market risk aversion. The Fed's independence and internal disagreements have added more uncertainties, increasing the risk aversion factors and making precious metals oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large increase in precious metals prices in the previous period, there is a need to be vigilant about external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [2][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the implementation of US tariffs and the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index rose significantly, and precious metals corrected to some extent. The market is currently pricing in two more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, totaling 50 basis points. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously driven by the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Trump announced new high - tariff policies on multiple imported products starting from October 1, but will adhere to the 15% tariff ceiling for trade partners with existing agreements. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund for infrastructure construction, with priority in semiconductor and key mineral fields [14] - In August, the US core PCE price index met expectations, and real consumer spending exceeded expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects a high probability of another cut in October. The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing support for the Fed's potential interest rate cut [16][17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, but the number of continued claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating pressure in the labor market [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was at a low since May, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rebounded. The ISM manufacturing index in August was below expectations, and the output index fell into the contraction range. The second - quarter GDP and core PCE price index were revised, showing that the US economic downward pressure is increasing [18] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - China and the US will hold talks in Spain. Trump mentioned sanctions on Russia, asked Europe to put economic pressure on China, and announced tariffs on semiconductor companies. After China's military parade, the geopolitical situation has become tense again [22] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - US non - farm payrolls in August were far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the need for interest rate cuts. The US stock market, copper, and crude oil may strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [24] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB has a certain appreciation expectation. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - International risk aversion has increased, and precious metals are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large previous increase in precious metals prices, attention should be paid to external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [31]

Group 1 - Market focus is on Trump's new tariffs, key US economic data, and commodity volatility, with investors observing the Federal Reserve's actions and risk sentiment [1] - Electronic Arts saw a significant increase of approximately 15% due to acquisition rumors, sparking speculation and merger interest in the gaming sector [10] - Boeing's stock rose by around 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [10] - NIO's stock declined by about 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimistic policy support [10] Group 2 - The market is digesting the tariffs announced by Trump, with investors seeking clarity on whether the new taxes will be broadly applicable or subject to trade agreement exemptions [10] - Upcoming macro data, including key US inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [10] - Risk appetite appears cautious ahead of the US inflation data release, with the VIX remaining firm above recent lows as traders process policy and tariff uncertainties [10]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices continue to rise significantly due to sustained investment demand and increasing risk aversion amid the looming U.S. government shutdown and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - As of September 29, international spot gold prices have reached a historic high above $3,800, while silver prices have also surged past $47 [1]. - Silver prices have increased approximately 5% within two trading days, breaking the $46 per ounce mark, and further rising to over $47 per ounce [2]. - Platinum has seen a nearly 10% increase over three trading days, surpassing $1,600 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Prices - Despite hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, the probability of a rate cut in October remains around 90% due to low inflation pressures indicated by the August PCE price index [2]. - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown, exacerbated by the Senate's rejection of a temporary funding bill, is contributing to rising gold prices alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and investment demand [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve personnel and potential market disruptions is bolstering risk aversion, leading to increased buying of precious metals as a hedge [4]. - Analysts suggest that while the bullish momentum for gold and silver is expected to continue, profit-taking may occur following the release of key global economic indicators [5][6]. - Historical data indicates that revisions to non-farm payroll figures often occur in October, which could amplify market volatility if any contrary signals arise [7].

周一（9月29日），现货黄金价格延续强势上行态势，突破3800美元关口并创下历史新高，最高触及3814.95美元/盎司，日内涨 幅约1.43%。 这一价格表现标志着黄金市场迎来了新的历史里程碑。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 【核心驱动因素】 美国政府停摆风险成为市场关注焦点。如果国会未能在周二前通过拨款法案，美国政府部分机构将于周三起停摆。这一不确定 性推升市场避险情绪，促使资金流向黄金。 同时，美国8月PCE通胀数据符合预期，强化了美联储降息预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储10月降息概率接近 88%。低利率环境降低了持有黄金的机会成本，进一步支撑金价。 【市场展望】 交易员正密切关注周一晚些时候多位美联储官员的讲话。任何鹰派言论都可能提振美元，对金价构成压力。 技术面显示，黄金中长期看涨基调稳固，但14日相对强弱指数高企于75上方，表明已进入超买区域。金价短期内可能面临整 理，但若能有效突破3810美元阻力，有望进一步上探3850美元。 随着避险需求与降息预期共同发挥作用，黄金在突破历史高点后仍具备上行潜力，但短期需警惕技术性回 ...

Core Insights - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. has led to a decline in the dollar, which in turn has driven gold prices to surpass the key level of $3,800 per ounce for the first time [1][20] - European stock markets opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index rising by 0.33%, and other major indices also showing positive movements [1][4] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.89%, closing at 44,940.87, while the South Korean KOSPI rose by 1.49% to 3,436.99, marking a monthly increase of 7.8% [2][12] - The FTSE Straits Times Index increased by 0.23%, closing at 4,274.9 [2][15] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by approximately 0.26%, settling at 97.94 [2][17] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $3,806.8 per ounce, up 1.2%, and silver rising over 2% to $46 per ounce, a fourteen-year high [2][20][23] - Platinum and palladium also experienced increases, with platinum up 3.4% to $1,622.04 per ounce and palladium up 2.2% to $1,297.67 per ounce [2][26][27] - Brent crude oil saw a slight decline of 0.03%, trading at $68.53 per barrel [2][28]

9月29日，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，日内大涨超55美元，触及3819美元/盎司，创下新高。金价日内大涨超55美 元。受国际金价接连上涨影响，国内品牌金饰克价已经超1100元大关。 上周，随着美联储降息落地、避险情绪升温及资金持续涌入，金价显著抬升。COMEX黄金期货价格周度上涨 2.27%报3789.8美元/盎司，周内再创历史新高。 而本周一，现货黄金价格突然大幅攀升。截至发稿时，现货黄金已经涨超1.5%，最高报3819.8美元/盎司。同时， COMEX黄金期货周一也由跌转涨，涨幅接近1%，最高报3848.8美元/盎司。 消息面上，美国国会四位最高领袖将于当地时间周一在白宫会晤特朗普。此时，若两党无法就短期支出法案达成 一致，联邦资金将于当地时间次日(9月30日)宣告耗尽。市场担心美国政府可能关门，这可能会推迟本周关键就业 数据的发布，并可能给美联储的货币政策路径蒙上阴影。 9月29日，国内部分黄金珠宝品牌金饰价格继续上涨。具体来看，国内金饰价格跟涨。周生生足金饰品标价1111 元/克，较前一日的1108元/克的价格上涨3元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价1115元/克，较前一日1110元/克的价格上 涨5元/克；周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly seeking refuge in precious metals due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown, leading to record high gold prices and rising silver prices [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - Spot gold prices rose by 1.19% to reach a historical high of $3,805.88 per ounce, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases [1]. - Spot silver increased by over 2%, hitting $47 per ounce, the highest level since May 2011 [4]. - Gold futures for December also saw a rise of 0.6%, reaching $3,831.90 [1]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The political deadlock in Washington is a direct catalyst for the current surge in gold prices, with potential government shutdown impacting key economic reports, including the non-farm payrolls [6]. - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have intensified, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance in December, driven by weak employment data [7]. - The stability of inflation, as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, supports the market's belief in continued monetary easing [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Flows - There is a strong influx of funds into gold-related investment products, with the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increasing by 0.89% to 1,005.72 tons, the highest level since 2022 [9]. - The overall performance of the gold market has been robust, with prices increasing over 40% year-to-date and the potential for a third consecutive quarter of gains [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, anticipate that the upward trend in gold prices will continue, influenced by multiple favorable factors [12]. - The focus remains on political developments in Washington and the Federal Reserve's forthcoming actions, which will significantly impact market dynamics [12].

| 2023-00 | ZUZ4-UB | 00-6707 | 22 ETF-SPOR ETF-SLVIRET - 200 | 2025-09 | 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | ●SHFE金银比价 | -- | -- 伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -- 白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦 ...