2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位盘整 | 3 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：假期间震荡平稳 | 10 | | 铝：大幅上涨 | 12 | | 氧化铝：趁势反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：宽幅震荡等待进一步的方向 | 14 | | 钯：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注正极实际减产情况 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产 | 20 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息发酵 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 23 | | 硅铁：钢招定价落地，警惕盘面情绪 | 25 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪 ...

马杜罗被推翻后，外界猜测特朗普或借武力实现其他领土野心。马杜罗被捕后不久，白宫高级助手斯蒂 芬.米勒的妻子凯蒂.米勒在社交平台发布美国国旗覆盖格陵兰岛的地图，配文"很快"。 摘要今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于993.22元/克附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 989.29元/克，涨幅1.03%，最高上探至4383.88元/克，最低触及4336.91元/克。目前来看，现货黄金短线 偏向看涨走势。 今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于993.22元/克附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报989.29 元/克，涨幅1.03%，最高上探至4383.88元/克，最低触及4336.91元/克。目前来看，现货黄金短线偏向看 涨走势。 【要闻速递】 丹麦首相梅特.弗雷泽里克森近日警告美国总统特朗普，要求其停止威胁获取格陵兰岛。此时距美国对 委内瑞拉采取军事行动、抓获总统马杜罗仅过去一天。 弗雷泽里克森在周日声明中强调，丹麦王国及格陵兰岛均为北约成员，受该联盟安全保障覆盖。她指 出，丹麦与美国已签署防务协议，赋予美国在格陵兰岛的广泛准入权，因此"强烈敦促美国停止对历史 上亲密盟友及其他国家、人民的威胁—— ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：元旦节前，多头资金获利了结导致贵金属整体 ...

2026年开年，地缘冲突频发，全球经济、地缘政策不确定性加大，推升避险情绪，金价再次走强。2026 年1月5日早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格升至4400美元。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged, breaking through $4,390 per ounce, while silver rose over 3% to exceed $75 per ounce [1] - Platinum and lithium prices also saw significant increases, with platinum at $2,243.90 (up 4.96%) and lithium at $1,697.03 (up 4.10%) [3] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased market uncertainty and a higher probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices opened lower, with WTI and Brent crude oil initially dropping over 1%, but WTI later rebounded [2] - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela, including U.S. military actions, is expected to impact oil supply, with potential increases in production despite current disruptions [6][7] - OPEC and non-OPEC countries have decided to maintain their production plans, aiming to stabilize the oil market [6]

Group 1 - The precious metals market has regained investor attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, driven by a surge in investment and geopolitical risks [2][3] - Gold prices surpassed $4500 per ounce and silver reached $72.7 per ounce, with annual increases of over 70% for gold and nearly 150% for silver [2] - The market experienced a significant correction on December 29, 2025, with silver prices dropping by 9.08% in a single day, highlighting the volatility and risks in the market [2] Group 2 - Key catalysts for the rise in precious metals include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by high unemployment rates and lower-than-expected core CPI, which weakened the dollar and reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflows into the precious metals market as a safe haven, further supported by the asset rebalancing cycle at the end of 2025 [3] - Structural demand imbalances, particularly in silver due to increased industrial consumption from solar energy and AI server demand, have also bolstered prices [3] Group 3 - Market sentiment and capital rotation have played significant roles in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [4] - Central banks have continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% increase month-over-month, indicating a strategic value in precious metals [4] - The rapid price increases have led to heightened volatility, prompting exchanges to raise margin requirements for trading precious metals [4][5] Group 4 - Short-term volatility in precious metal prices is expected to persist due to profit-taking by investors and potential underperformance of monetary policy easing [5] - Long-term prospects for precious metals remain strong, supported by ongoing global monetary easing, central bank gold purchases, and persistent geopolitical risks [5] - The structural support for gold prices is reinforced by the clear direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will lower the cost of holding precious metals [5] Group 5 - The complexity of factors influencing gold prices has increased, with U.S. monetary policy and inflation remaining key determinants [6] - Silver prices are closely correlated with gold but exhibit greater volatility due to its industrial applications, making it more sensitive to market fluctuations [6] - Investors are advised to approach precious metal investments with caution due to the inherent market volatility [6]

太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）前首席执行官穆罕默德·埃里安帖称，市场对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政权 垮台的经济与金融反应尚不明朗。他写道："若市场当时处于交易状态，我们很可能看到油价（因委内 瑞拉出口增加预期而下跌，具体取决于该国领导层继任情况）与黄金价格（因不确定性加剧引发的避险 资金流入而上涨）出现即时分化。" ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela, which may delay exports of tin, nickel, and bauxite, leading to short-term price stimulation but limited long-term effects. The focus remains on precious metals as safe-haven assets, with a positive outlook on lithium, copper, aluminum, gold, silver, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] - The report notes that gold and silver prices have seen a decline, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4324.5 and $70.5 per ounce, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of -4.79% and -7.69%. The Federal Reserve's indication of potential rate cuts post-December is expected to influence market sentiment positively [2] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to show price elasticity due to supply constraints, with LME copper closing at $12496.5 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week. The report also mentions a strike at Capstone Mining's Mantoverde copper mine, which could impact supply [2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have decreased, with COMEX gold at $4324.5/oz and silver at $70.5/oz. The market sentiment is influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and increased central bank and ETF purchases [2] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, and others in the gold sector [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply constraints, with LME copper at $12496.5/ton and a notable strike affecting production. The report indicates a potential increase in exports post-holiday [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices remain strong, with LME aluminum at $2997.0/ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but a decrease in downstream demand due to high prices [3] - Suggested companies include China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum [3] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at 327680 yuan/ton. The report anticipates continued high prices due to supply concerns from major producing regions [9] - Companies to watch include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings [9] Strategic Metals - The report highlights a positive outlook for lithium, with prices at 121580 yuan/ton, driven by increasing demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries [10] - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 460000 yuan/ton [10] - Companies of interest include Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [10][11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are expected to rise, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide at 607500 yuan/ton and 596500 yuan/ton, respectively. The report notes a potential recovery in export demand [12] - Recommended companies include Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [12]

著名经济学家宋清辉分析认为，美军对委内瑞拉实施空袭，这一行为极有可能对2026年本已脆弱、处于复苏通道中的全球经济造成巨大冲击 一言以蔽之，美军空袭委内瑞拉，伤害的不仅是一个国家，而是2026年全球经济复苏本就脆弱的信心基础。 作者系著名经济学家宋清辉，著有《中国韧性》。 图源网络 图源网络 著名经济学家 宋清辉 当地时间1月3日凌晨5时，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣称，美国对委内瑞拉实施了大规模打击，并"抓获了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫 人"。 在我看来，美军对委内瑞拉实施空袭，这一行为极有可能对2026年本已脆弱的全球经济造成巨大冲击。此言并非危言耸听，而是基于当下全球经济结构高 度敏感、能源与金融体系深度融合的现实背景。 从资本市场角度来看，军事冲突往往会引发避险情绪急剧升温。资金或将迅速从新兴市场和高风险资产撤离，转向美元、美债和黄金。这种资本大规模回 流发达经济体核心资产的过程，或会进一步加剧发展中国家的汇率波动、债务压力和金融不稳定，甚至引发区域性金融风险。 ...

UNforex 1月2日讯（分析师 Stephen）2026年首个交易日，全球金融市场仍笼罩在节假日氛围之中，整 体波动有限。周五欧洲时段，美元指数在98.00关口上方维持窄幅整理，主要股指期货小幅走高，涨幅 介于0.3%至0.7%之间，显示资金在年初阶段依然保持谨慎配置。 欧洲早盘，黄金延续此前反弹走势，XAU/USD 围绕每盎司4375美元一线震荡，当日涨幅接近1%。市 场对美国在2026年进一步放松货币政策的预期，为金价提供中期支撑；与此同时，全球地缘政治不确定 性抬升，强化了黄金的避险吸引力。 在低利率预期背景下，持有黄金的机会成本持续下降，新年初资金对避险资产的配置意愿保持稳定。需 要注意的是，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）近期上调黄金与白银期货保证金水平，或在一定程度上抑制 短线追涨动能。同时，部分交易员选择在假期前后进行仓位调整，阶段性获利了结现象仍然存在。 外汇市场整体延续平稳格局。周五早盘，英镑/美元继续反弹，站稳1.3450上方。市场预期，若新任美 联储主席政策立场偏向温和，美元可能面临一定调整压力，从而对英镑形成支撑。英国央行此前已将基 准利率下调至3.75%，并重申将采取循序渐进的宽松路径 ...