Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [57]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 40,940 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 4.36% [6][11]. - Urban market growth has surpassed rural market growth for the first time in nearly 20 months, with urban retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year [13]. - Online consumption continues to show strong growth, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 7.9% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [15]. - The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.5% [31]. - The unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [44]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 grew by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching 40,940 billion yuan, which is higher than the expected growth rate [11]. By Category - The share of goods retail has increased, with food and beverage categories showing stable growth. In March, the total retail sales of goods reached 36,705 billion yuan, also growing by 5.9% year-on-year [22][24]. - Essential goods showed robust growth, with food, beverages, and daily necessities increasing by 13.8%, 4.4%, and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively [29]. Price Performance - The CPI and PPI both decreased year-on-year, with the PPI declining by 2.5% due to weak upstream energy prices. The PPI-CPI gap widened to -2.4% [31][38]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, which is consistent with the levels seen in 2019 and the previous year [44][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the high-end liquor and regional leading brands in the liquor sector, as the valuation is currently at a low point and policies are expected to boost demand [54]. - The cosmetics sector is also highlighted for stable growth, with domestic brands likely to increase their market share amid rising uncertainties in international relations [54].

加拿大3月CPI同比增长2.3%，预期2.6%；3月CPI环比增长0.3%，预期0.6%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion focuses on the price differences between China and the United States, particularly in relation to Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends post-pandemic [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CPI Trends**: Since the end of 2020, China's CPI has consistently been lower than that of the U.S., with no significant convergence observed [2]. - **PPI Growth Divergence**: As of late 2024, U.S. PPI growth has bottomed out and is recovering, while China's remains weak, primarily due to differences in supply chain sensitivity, post-pandemic policy choices, and labor cost disparities [3][4]. - **Structural Differences**: The CPI structure in the U.S. is heavily weighted towards housing, while in China, food, tobacco, and alcohol dominate. This structural difference amplifies price variations across industries [3][5]. - **Key Sectors Influencing Price Differences**: Energy, real estate, and food are identified as the main sectors causing price discrepancies. The U.S. relies more on natural gas, while China is coal-dependent, leading to contrasting price trends [6]. - **Food Consumption Patterns**: The U.S. has a higher consumption of poultry, which has seen price increases due to avian influenza, while China's pork supply is robust, keeping prices low [6]. - **Contribution to Price Index Differences**: Energy factors account for approximately 40% of the PPI growth difference, while food and real estate together explain over 65% of the divergence [7][8]. - **Potential for Price Convergence**: As supply-demand imbalances are addressed, there is a possibility for gradual convergence of prices between the two countries [9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Underestimation of Price Data**: Current CPI and PPI data in China may be underestimated due to the base year being set in 2020, which was influenced by the pandemic. Changes in economic conditions and consumption patterns could further affect this [10]. - **New vs. Old Energy Industries**: New energy industries, characterized by lower resource dependency and higher R&D investment, are expected to show more stable price trends compared to traditional industries, which are more volatile due to their resource-intensive nature [11]. - **Impact of Policy Choices**: The U.S. has implemented significant fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing, which contrasts with China's more restrained approach, affecting overall economic recovery and price stability [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the significant differences in price trends between China and the U.S. and the underlying factors contributing to these disparities.

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.1%, compared to a previous decline of 0.7%[14] - Food prices were the main drag, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.4%, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI decline[17] - The most significant decreases in food prices included fresh vegetables at 5.1%, pork at 4.4%, and eggs at 3.1%[17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to 2.5% in March 2025, compared to a previous decline of 2.2%[14] - Domestic pricing for production materials showed weakness, with coal prices decreasing by 4.3% due to seasonal demand reduction[30] - Equipment manufacturing prices fell, particularly in the computer and automotive sectors, with declines of 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, likely due to reduced export demand[31] Group 3: Future Outlook - For April 2025, the CPI month-on-month growth is expected to hover around zero, with a potential for positive year-on-year growth due to stable pork supply and seasonal vegetable price declines[21] - The PPI is anticipated to continue negative growth, influenced by external inflationary pressures and weak domestic demand in certain sectors[33] - Government fund expenditure growth is expected to rebound, supporting price stabilization in the black and non-metal industries[5]

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous value of -0.7%[1] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.4%, compared to a prior decrease of 0.2%[1] - The PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, slightly worse than the previous decline of 2.2%[1] Food and Core CPI Insights - Food item CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4%, with a month-on-month decline of 1.4%, compared to previous values of -3.3% and -0.5% respectively[5] - Core CPI year-on-year growth improved to 0.5%, up from -0.1% in the previous month[5] - Service CPI year-on-year growth rose to 0.3%, a significant recovery from -0.4%[5] PPI Sector Analysis - The mining and raw materials sectors saw PPI declines of 8.3% and 2.4% respectively, with energy sector PPI continuing to decline[5] - The PPI for durable consumer goods showed a notable increase, with household appliances PPI improving to -0.3% from -3.3%[5] - Consumer goods PPI trends varied, with essential goods generally seeing an increase while discretionary items showed mixed results[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with policy effectiveness not meeting expectations and potential geopolitical conflicts affecting commodity prices[2]

| ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 中美通胀的相似与分化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 11 日 ➢ 风险因素：地缘政治风险，国际油价上涨超预期等。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 中国 CPI 暂未能实现转正的两个压制。中国 3 月 CPI 降幅收窄至 0.1%， 但暂未能实现转正，我们认为这主要有两方面的压制。压制 1：消费品价 格整体仍 ...

智通财经4月11日电，西班牙3月CPI同比增长2.3%，预期2.3%；3月CPI环比增长0.1%，预期0.1%。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Treasury Bonds on April 11, 2025, provided by the Shenwan Futures Research Institute [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance, with the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield falling to 1.6475%. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan, and short - term Shibor rates mostly declined, with funding rates dropping below 1.7%. The probability of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, causing short - term US Treasury yields to fall. Policy expectations for China's market are strengthening, and it is expected to continue supporting short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, long - term Treasury bond futures prices may experience greater fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.13%, and the corresponding CTD bond IRR of each Treasury bond futures main contract was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally declined, and key - term Treasury bond yields at home and abroad also changed. The 10Y Treasury bond yield in China decreased by 0.23bp to 1.65%, while the 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 6bp, 3bp, and 1.6bp respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. For example, the open interest of T2506 increased by 3578 [2] - **Spread Changes**: The inter - period spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - period spread of TS2506 decreased from - 0.096 to - 0.106 [2] 3.2 Macro and Market News - **Domestic Macro**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan on April 10. China's March CPI and PPI were affected by seasonal and international input factors, but core CPI increased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing positive price changes. There are expectations for the introduction of more macro - policies, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3] - **International Macro**: The US imposed a 90 - day tariff suspension on some countries or regions. The US March CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, reaching a six - month low, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. US Treasury bonds were sold off, and concerns about the sustainability of US debt increased [3] 3.3 Market Interest Rates - **Domestic Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day rates, DR001 and DR007, GC001 and GC007, FR001 and FR007 all declined to varying degrees on the previous trading day [2] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields showed mixed performance. The 2 - year yield fell, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year yields rose [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month’s -0.7%[6] - The CPI month-on-month decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month’s -0.2%[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of -0.1% in the previous month[5] Group 2: Food and Energy Impact - Food prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Key food items like beef, fresh vegetables, and eggs saw price drops of 10.8%, 6.8%, and 1.6% respectively, contributing to the overall CPI decline[5] - International oil prices decreased, contributing to a month-on-month CPI decline of approximately 0.12 percentage points[3] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline was -2.5%, worsening from -2.2% in the previous month[26] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[26] - The decline in PPI was influenced by falling prices in the oil and gas extraction industry, which dropped by 4.4%[10] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 2025 CPI target growth rate is set at 2%, a reduction from the previous 3% target established since 2015[7] - The report suggests that the key to exiting the "low-price" environment is to boost core CPI, with real estate market stabilization being crucial[6] - The anticipated impact of tariff increases is expected to result in a 3% decline in export growth, correlating with a 0.20 percentage point drop in PPI and a 1.30 percentage point increase in CPI[15]

"CPI环比下降主要受季节性因素和油价下行影响。"董莉娟说，天气转暖，部分鲜活食品大量上市，食 品供应总体充足。3月份食品价格环比下降，影响CPI环比下降约0.24个百分点，占CPI总降幅六成。此 外，旅游淡季出行人数减少，出行类价格有所下降。其中，飞机票和旅游价格分别下降11.5%和5.9%， 合计影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点。 3月份CPI同比、环比有所下降，但提振消费需求等政策效应逐渐显现，加之春节错月影响消退，更多 方面显现出明显的积极变化。董莉娟介绍，从环比看，CPI环比降幅小于近十年同期平均水平0.2个百分 点。"以旧换新"等政策效应逐渐显现，扣除能源的工业消费品价格环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.3 个百分点；从同比看，CPI同比降幅收窄，比上月收窄0.6个百分点。 "扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI明显回升，同比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.5%。"董莉娟说，其中，服 务价格同比由上月下降0.4%转为上涨0.3%，对CPI的影响由上月下拉0.15个百分点转为上拉0.13个百分 点。 国家统计局4月10日发布的数据显示，3月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，全国工业 ...