关税政策

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谁在为特朗普关税买单?德银:美国人
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-22 00:56
随着美国总统特朗普的关税政策推进,一个关键问题浮现:究竟是谁在这些关税买单? 据追风交易台消息,德意志银行最新研报显示,特朗普政府征收的关税主要由美国人承担,而非海外出口商。该行分析了第二季度美国制造业商品进口价 格变化后发现,尽管关税收入今年已超过1000亿美元,但外国出口商并未通过大幅降价来吸收关税成本。 分析师George Saravelos指出,如果外国出口商承担关税成本,理论上市场应该看到进口商品价格大幅下降。但分析结果表明,美国的贸易伙伴中,除加 拿大出现温和价格下调、英国出现较小幅度下调外,其他地区出口商支付的关税费用微乎其微。最令人意外的是,中国出口商基本未通过降价来抵消关税 影响。 如果是外国人在支付关税,我们预期会看到进口商品价格大幅下降,因为他们将其成本吸收进了自身的利润空间。确实,我们看到了一些温和 的价格下降,在加拿大最为明显,英国次之。但最令人惊讶的是,除此之外,其他地方的出口商似乎支付得极少。 鉴于美国消费者价格指数涨幅迄今保持克制,德银得出结论:美国进口商主要通过压缩自身利润率来吸收关税成本。这一现状不仅为美国贸易伙伴在8月1 日新期限前提供了更多谈判筹码,也预示着未来美国消费 ...
张尧浠:关税谈判陷入停滞、金价获力走强关注目标阻力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 00:43
短期将关注3500美元而下的回落趋势线压力约3417,以及之前遇阻回落的阻力位3450美元附近的压制情况。 张尧浠:关税谈判陷入停滞、金价获力走强关注目标阻力 上交易日周一(7月21日):国际黄金强势反弹拉升,创下五周新高,打破上周的震荡格局,持稳于中轨及众多均线上方,布林带也开口向上扩散,多头动 力增强; 影响上,由于陷入停滞的美国贸易谈判,鲍威尔受到特朗普盟友的刑事指控,加大了其被罢免的担忧。美元指数及美债收益率走低,增强了金价的吸引 力。 具体走势上,金价自亚市开于3349.33美元/盎司,先行走弱,如期触及看涨支撑位,并录得日内低点3344.83美元,之后止跌反弹,日内震荡上行,阶梯式 走强,并在欧盘尾及美盘上半段多头力量明显加强,开始连续拉升,于23点时段录得日内高点3401.51美元,并就此有所遇阻回撤,陷入震荡调整,最终 收于3396.65美元,日振幅56.68美元,收涨47.32美元,涨幅1.41%。 展望今日周二(7月22日):国际黄金开盘受到3400关口附近的阻力压力而先行表现走弱,但下方有众多均线支撑,美元指数短期走势偏弱,而会限制金价 回落力度,并使得金价在触及支撑位置,仍可再度看涨反 ...
美关税政策致车企巨头面临23亿欧元亏损
news flash· 2025-07-22 00:39
当地时间21日,跨国汽车制造商斯泰兰蒂斯集团表示,受到美国政府加征关税等因素影响,该集团在今 年上半年面临23亿欧元(约合193亿元人民币)亏损。斯泰兰蒂斯集团拥有菲亚特、标致、克莱斯勒和吉 普等汽车品牌。该集团表示,旗下汽车品牌在北美市场的销量持续下滑,其中今年第二季度销量同比下 降25%。对此,斯泰兰蒂斯集团表示,美关税政策是北美市场销量大幅下降的主要因素。(央视新闻) ...
商品多数上涨,重视政策决心:申万期货早间评论-20250722
申银万国期货研究· 2025-07-22 00:33
Group 1 - The article highlights that most commodities have risen, emphasizing the importance of policy determination [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of propylene futures contracts with a benchmark price of 6350 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have primarily risen, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the banking sector lagged [2] - The market's trading volume reached 1.73 trillion CNY, with a decrease in financing balance by 1.99 billion CNY to 1.889167 trillion CNY [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron output has increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, marking a four-week consecutive increase [3] - The market anticipates further policy support, with potential supply constraints due to enhanced safety and environmental regulations ahead of the September 3 military parade [3] Group 4 - Gold and silver have strengthened due to rising market risk aversion ahead of new tariff deadlines, alongside a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Recent economic data suggests that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, but caution is advised regarding potential future tariff threats [4] - The long-term support for gold remains strong due to continued purchases by the People's Bank of China [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and expected prolonged high interest rates [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in June, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% for the first half of the year [7]
中美海运价格高位回落7成,船司砍线止损
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-22 00:06
记者丨 张旭 编辑丨周上祺 视频丨张旭 进入第三季度,传统海运旺季已经到来, 不过中美航运价格却出现大跌,贸易商出口意愿 低。 7月21日,南京一家货代美线负责人向21世纪经济报道记者透露:"往年6月—10月是美线出口 旺季,但目前货物不多,询价也较少。" 出货意愿低迷导致海运价格下跌。21世纪经济报道记者从采访中了解到,近期,美东航线回落 至3300—3800美元/FEU(40英尺标准箱),美西航线1700—1800美元/FEU。作为对比,美东 航线在6月初报价最高达到7000美元/FEU,美西航线达到6000美元/FEU。 以此计算, 美西航线运价大跌70% ,美东航线下跌幅度也在50%左右。 业内人士分析称,美 西航线价格已经接近船公司成本价。目前已有两家船公司缩减美西航线运力,不排除其他船公 司跟进。 货主观望 根据上海航交所7月18日发布的最新数据,上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFI)已连续6周下 跌。为稳定运价,船公司正在削减运力,与此同时亚洲至美国的服务也在缩减。 对于近期的出货情况,陈洋用 "货主观望、货量低迷" 总结。6月货量再次回落,美国7月7日 起向多国寄发关税信,亚洲主要出口国关税普遍高 ...
川普关税大棒砸向全球,中国“免税大超市”反杀,美企盟友全懵了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-21 23:36
Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce imposed tariffs on Chinese graphite, which is critical for the U.S. electric vehicle industry, as China accounts for 70% of global production and exports to the U.S. were valued at $1.5 billion in 2025 [1] - The tariffs are expected to increase battery costs by $7 per kilowatt-hour, leading to a 20% reduction in subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act [1] - U.S. domestic graphite producers are unable to meet the demand, with their annual production being less than a fraction of China's daily output [3][5] Group 2 - The tariffs have caused a surge in Canadian graphite mining stocks by 51%, while U.S. electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla saw their stock prices decline [1] - The U.S. is facing backlash from allies like the EU and Mexico, with Mexico retaliating by imposing tariffs on U.S. corn [3] - The pharmaceutical industry is also affected, with potential 200% tariffs on imported drugs leading to increased prices for American consumers [3] Group 3 - China's strategy includes zero tariffs for 53 African countries, enhancing trade relations and allowing African nations to develop infrastructure using funds from exports to China [7][9] - The Chinese graphite industry has advanced technologies that reduce costs by 40% compared to U.S. methods, attracting orders from Europe and Southeast Asia [8] - The U.S. tariffs are seen as a self-defeating strategy that may harm American consumers and businesses while benefiting other countries [9]
阿斯利康(AZN.US)拟2030年前向美投资500亿美元,欧洲药企加速避关税布局
智通财经网· 2025-07-21 23:24
Core Viewpoint - AstraZeneca plans to invest $50 billion in the U.S. by 2030, responding to potential import drug tariffs and aiming to enhance local production and R&D capabilities [1] Group 1: Investment Plans - The investment will include the construction of a new chronic disease drug factory in Virginia, with a budget of $4 billion [1] - This new investment is an addition to AstraZeneca's previous commitment of $3.5 billion by the end of 2026 [1] - The company currently employs nearly 18,000 people in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - European pharmaceutical companies are increasing investments in the U.S. to mitigate tariff risks, with Novartis announcing a $23 billion infrastructure investment and Roche proposing a $50 billion investment [1] - Sanofi has also committed to investing at least $20 billion in the U.S. by 2030 [1] - AstraZeneca and other companies are forming a new supply chain model: "U.S. production for the U.S. market, European R&D, and Asian manufacturing" [1] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - AstraZeneca's CEO Pascal Soriot has urged U.S. policymakers to consider tax incentives instead of tariffs to attract local investments [2] - Soriot acknowledges the strategic need for countries to secure their drug supply chains, aligning with the vision promoted by the Trump administration [2] - The new tariff policy proposed by Trump, effective August 1, will implement floating tariffs, requiring companies to relocate production within a year or face tariffs up to 200% [2] Group 4: Corporate Strategy and Market Position - Under Soriot's leadership, AstraZeneca's market value has more than doubled, positioning the company among the top players in the global oncology market [2] - The company has established significant R&D pipelines in cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic diseases [2] - Recent strategic adjustments reflect a broader trend among multinational pharmaceutical companies responding to changing trade policies and a restructuring of the global pharmaceutical landscape [2]
【环球财经】地缘政治紧张缓和 国际油价21日小幅下跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-21 22:49
新华财经纽约7月21日电(记者刘亚南)随着地缘政治紧张缓和及市场继续担忧关税政策负面影响,国 际油价在隔夜市场窄幅盘整,21日盘中弱势震荡,收盘时国际油价均小幅下跌。 截至当天收盘,纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌14美分,收于每桶67.20美元,跌幅为 0.21%;9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌7美分,收于每桶69.21美元,跌幅为0.10%。 伊朗外交部21日发表声明说,伊朗与英国、法国、德国的副外长级核谈判将于25日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔 举行。 关于欧盟最新一轮针对俄罗斯的制裁,美国"重新投资"资本公司创始合伙人约翰·基尔达夫(John Kilduff)表示,现在市场认为俄罗斯供应仍将通过某种方式进入市场,这方面没有太多担忧。 俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫在18日表示,俄罗斯对西方制裁已经具有一定免疫力。 荷兰商业银行分析师认为,欧盟最新制裁措施中很可能产生影响的部分是欧盟禁止进口第三国利用俄罗 斯原油加工的成品油,尽管这方面的监控和政策实施可能困难。 同时,市场担忧美国可能在8月1日最后关税谈判期限后对欧盟等主要经济体开始征收关税,并因此影响 石油需求。 约翰·基尔达夫表示,美国关税对石 ...
【环球财经】美股三大股指涨跌不一 标普、纳指收盘创新高
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-21 22:45
市场研究机构FactSet研究系统公司副总裁兼高级盈利分析师约翰·巴特斯(John Butters)预计,标普500 指数下七大权重科技股在今年二季度盈利预计增长14%,而标普500指数其他493家成分股该季度盈利预 计仅将增长3.4%。 市场研究机构CFRA负责美国股票策略的首席投资策略师山姆·斯多沃(Sam Stovall)表示,在对企业盈 利预期如此低的情况下,最终的结果将会好于预期。 美国商务部长鲁特尼克在20日表示,8月1日是美国开始向贸易伙伴输美产品加征关税的最后期限,但相 关贸易伙伴在这一期限以后仍然可以与美国进行谈判。 新华财经纽约7月21日电(记者刘亚南)纽约股市三大股指21日高开高走,盘中强势盘整,午后涨幅收 窄,收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一,但标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数收盘时均创下历史新高。 截至当天收盘,道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌19.12点,收于44323.07点,跌幅为0.04%;标准 普尔500种股票指数上涨8.81点,收于6305.60点,涨幅为0.14%;纳斯达克综合指数上涨78.52点,收于 20974.17点,涨幅为0.38%。 板块方面,标普500指数十 ...
隔夜美股 | 纳指、标普500指数创盘中历史新高 现货黄金一度站上3400美元
智通财经网· 2025-07-21 22:23
智通财经APP获悉,周三,纳指、标普500指数均创盘中历史新高。三大指数尾盘出现跳水,因惠誉下 调美国25%行业前景评级至"恶化"。 惠誉称,政策风险给美国信用前景蒙上阴影。惠誉在年中更新中,将美国2025年25%行业的前景展望下 调至"恶化",原因是不确定性增加、经济增长放缓以及预期利率将长期维持在高位。惠誉表示,近期通 过的税收和支出法案凸显了美国财政前景面临的长期挑战,并将给医疗保健相关行业带来压力。税收法 案和先前减税措施的延长相结合,很可能使美政府总赤字保持在GDP的7%以上,并在2029年将债务与 GDP之比推高至135%。 【美股】截至收盘,道指跌19.12点,跌幅为0.04%,报44323.07点;纳指涨78.52点,涨幅为0.38%,报 20974.17点;标普500指数涨8.81点,涨幅为0.14%,报6305.6点。Opendoor Technologies(OPEN.US)收涨 42.67%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨11.58点,涨幅0.05%,报24299.15点;英国富时100指数涨21.03点,涨幅 0.23%,报9013.15点;法国CAC40指数跌25.97点,跌幅0. ...