这个五一假期，黄金市场上演了一场惊心动魄的"过山车"行情，价格先暴跌后暴涨，让无数投资者的心 情随之起伏。这一剧烈波动再次敲响警钟：黄金投资，容不得半点马虎。 回顾过去一年多，黄金堪称 投资市场的"明星选手"。2024年，国际金价40余次刷新历史纪录，全年涨幅高达30% - 40%；2025年前 三个月，金价又飙升20%，国内饰品黄金价格一度突破千元大关。然而，有趣的是，金价越高，市场销 售却越冷清。许多消费者认为金价已达顶峰，不敢轻易入手。相反，每当金价下跌，便成了抢购热潮。 持上涨态势。 但越是行情火热，越需保持清醒。如今，不少投资者被黄金的涨势冲昏头脑，不惜加杠 杆、贷款炒金，妄图一夜暴富。他们忽视了一个关键事实：当下的黄金市场早已今非昔比。过去十年， 金价波动相对平稳，年涨幅3% - 5%已属少见；而如今，一周内5% - 8%的波动都不足为奇，暴涨暴跌已 成常态。 在这种高风险环境下，加杠杆无异于"玩火"。即便黄金长期看涨，一次短期的价格回调，就可能导致爆 仓，让投资者血本无归。 黄金投资的真谛，在于发挥其避险功能，而非单纯追逐增值。若用闲钱长线 持有，自然能抵御风险、保值增值；但若抱着投机心态，加杠 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

消费需求放缓。随着一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，金饰需求遭遇冲击，销量跌至2020年疫情以来 最低。一季度，中国市场金饰消费量为125吨，同比下滑32%，较过去10年同期的平均水平低了29%， 创下2020年以来最疲软的一季度表现。高金价令一部分消费者持续转向购买克重更小、价格更亲民的金 饰产品，也有部分消费者选择持币观望。 央行持续购金。在全球地缘政治不确定性仍存的背景之下，2025年是全球央行连续净购金的第16年。一 季度全球官方黄金储备增加244吨，尽管同比下滑21.4%，但仍与过去3年季度均值持平，整体表现依旧 坚挺，显示官方储备多元化趋势延续。 全球市场环境不确定性较高 中长期来看，由于美国关税政策不确定性较高、地缘冲突等仍将持续，大国博弈的底层逻辑未有实质性 改变，黄金作为核心配置资产，长期维持偏多思路。 今年全球市场开局动荡，贸易争端频发、美国关税政策反复无常、地缘局势持续紧张，叠加全球经济衰 退预期卷土重来，这些因素共同导致投资者面临高度不确定的市场环境。在此背景下，黄金投资需求激 增。此外，美联储货币政策仍处于宽松周期，贵金属金融属性仍有支撑，但由于前期金价涨速过快，短 期或高位震荡，但 ...

| 名称 | 最新点位 | 、涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3342.67 | +26.56(0.8%) | | 深证指数 | 10104.13 | +21.79(0.22%) | | 创业板指 | 1996.51 | +10.1(0.51%) | | | 日期:5月7日 制图:21投资通 | | | 名标 | 报价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 41113.97 | 2 0.7% | | 纳斯达克 | > 17738.16 | 0.27% | | 标普500 | 5631.28 | 0 43% | | 富时100 | 8559.33 | -0.44% | | COMEX黄金 | 3376.50 | 9-1.35% | | WTI原油 | 58.07 | -1.73% | | 美元指数 | 99.87 | -0.01% | | 美元离岸人民币 | 7.23 | 0.01% | | | 注:美元指数、汇率为最新价,数据截至北京时间6:30,其它为收盘价 制图:21投资通 | | 重磅资讯①美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变 据新华 ...

国家外汇管理局表示，2025年4月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和 资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济呈现向好态势，经济发展韧性强、活力足，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳 定。 截止发稿，现货黄金价格为3385.29美元/盎司。 中国央行连续六个月增持黄金，4月末黄金储备7377万盎司，3月末黄金储备为7370万盎司，环比增长0.095%，增速较3月末的0.15%有所放缓。 5月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年4月末，我国外汇储备规模为32817亿美元，较3月末上升410亿美元，升幅为1.27%。 中国黄金协会上月的数据显示，一季度，我国增持黄金12.75吨，国内黄金ETF持仓增长23.47吨，较2024年1季度增仓5.49吨同比增长327.73%。受 高金价抑制，黄金首饰消费同比下降26.85%，地缘政治复杂多变与经济不确定性使得黄金避险保值的功能进一步凸显，民间金条和金币投资需求 快速大幅度增长。 世界黄金协会（WGC）日前的数据显示，一季度黄金需求总量同比增长1%，达到1206吨，创下自2016年以来 ...

美联储议息会议是影响全球金融市场的核心事件之一，尤其是对黄金价格走势具有决定性作用。在这 里，领峰环球(acetoptg.top/JfSTFg)将从议息会议的基本概念、对黄金的影响逻辑等角度，帮助新手投资 者快速掌握关键要点，高效捕捉议息行情。 一、议息会议的核心作用 美联储通过议息会议决定基准利率水平，这直接影响美元流动性、实际利率和全球资产定价。例如，若 美联储降息，美元贬值压力增大，黄金作为无息资产更具吸引力；反之，加息可能压制金价。 当前市场关注的焦点是美联储的政策走向。比如2025年5月的议息会议，市场预期美联储可能按兵不 动，且有分析人士认为此次会议鲍威尔可能会继续以"鹰派"基调反驳市场对美联储降息的预期，其将在 利率决议公布后的新闻发布会中的言论成为市场关注重点。 ·通胀与增长的平衡：尽管美国短期通胀压力缓解，但美国新关税政策可能推升进口成本，迫使美联储 在"抑制通胀"与"刺激经济"间艰难抉择。 ·内部意见分化：部分官员支持继续降息以应对潜在衰退，另一派则担忧过早宽松加剧通胀。这种分歧 导致市场预期波动。 (2)市场预期与实际决议的差异：若决议符合预期，市场反应可能平淡；若超预期(如降息幅度更大 ...

每经记者｜陈植 每经编辑｜陈旭 面对迭创新高的黄金价格，今年一季度全球黄金需求持续升温。 4月底，世界黄金协会发布的2025年一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》（下称《报告》）显示，在黄金价格突破3000美元/盎司 的情况下，当季全球黄金需求总量（包含场外交易）达到1206吨，同比增长1%。 这主要得益于全球黄金投资需求增长。黄金ETF需求复苏，推动一季度黄金投资需求总量达到552吨，同比增长170%，创下 2022年一季度以来的最高季度水平。 在黄金消费需求方面，面对金价迭创新高的压力，金饰消费市场依然保持韧性，一季度全球金饰消费支出同比增长9%，达到 350亿美元。 一是美国关税政策不但令全球通胀存在上升风险，而且也令全球经济增速面临下滑的可能，因此全球投资者通过黄金投资分散 资产配置整体风险的需求或将进一步上升； 二是面对高金价，美国经济政策不可预测性令全球投资者对美国资产信心产生动摇，或令全球央行购金力度维持在最近数年的 平均水准附近； 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师路易斯·斯特里特表示，今年以来全球贸易摩擦频发，美国经济政策反复无常，国际地缘政治局势 持续紧张，叠加经济衰退风险担忧卷土重来，都导致投资者面临 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current surge in gold prices has attracted a new generation of young investors in China, who are replacing the older generation's interest in gold investment, seeking to capitalize on perceived financial opportunities [2][7]. - Young investors are increasingly viewing gold as a high-return investment, with discussions on social media highlighting significant profits from gold purchases, indicating a shift in investment beliefs among the younger demographic [3][9]. - The article discusses the historical context of gold as a safe-haven asset, tracing its price movements back to events such as the U.S.-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have contributed to its appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [6][10]. Group 2 - The article notes that the demographic of gold consumers has shifted, with the proportion of young people aged 25 to 34 engaging in gold purchases rising from 16% to 59%, indicating a significant trend in gold consumption among younger generations [9]. - It highlights the risks associated with gold investment, particularly for young investors who may be using credit and loans to finance their purchases, which could lead to financial strain if gold prices decline [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the complexities and potential pitfalls of investing in gold, including issues with liquidity and the challenges of selling gold products, which may not yield the expected returns due to high markups and purity concerns [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in May is a significant event for the gold market, as policy changes could lead to substantial price fluctuations for gold investors, particularly newcomers [1] Group 1: Understanding the Federal Reserve's Signals - Decoding the Federal Reserve's "language" is crucial for investors to analyze future gold market trends [2] - The dot plot, reflecting officials' interest rate predictions, indicates that a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2025 could negatively impact gold prices, while an increase in expected cuts would be beneficial [2] - Current market expectations suggest a 97.2% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in May, with only a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut [2] - Jerome Powell's statements significantly influence market expectations, with potential hints that rate cuts are not imminent and that tariffs may increase inflation, impacting economic growth [2] Group 2: Key Economic Indicators - Inflation indicators such as core PCE and CPI are vital for the Fed's monetary policy decisions and serve as barometers for gold market trends [3] - As of April, core PCE remained stable at 0.2% month-on-month and approximately 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the Fed's 2% target, but showing signs of slowing growth [3] - The April CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, below the market expectation of 3.6%, indicating a continued decline in price increases [3] - The April non-farm payrolls showed an increase of 177,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [3] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Investors should adopt a three-step approach to navigate the volatility surrounding the Fed's meeting [4] - Before the meeting, with high expectations for the Fed to maintain rates, investors are advised to reduce positions to mitigate risks [4] - During the meeting, focus on the interest rate decision, dot plot, and Powell's Q&A; dovish signals may prompt gradual gold purchases, while hawkish comments warrant caution [4] - After the meeting, market volatility typically peaks, and investors should adjust positions based on technical analysis, particularly if gold prices break key resistance levels [4] - If Powell indicates a clear "mid-year rate cut" signal, gold prices may rise further towards previous highs [4]

3.避险需求升温:地缘冲突与全球经济复苏的不确定性,持续支撑黄金的避险买盘。2025年初至今,央行购 金规模同比增加12%,创历史新高。 在全球经济舞台上,美联储议息会议一直扮演着举足轻重的角色。每一次利率决议的公布,都如同投入平 静湖面的巨石,在全球金融市场激起千层浪。黄金作为非息资产,其价格对美联储利率决议尤为敏感。加 息通常提升持有黄金的机会成本,而降息则降低这一成本。 美联储利率决议对全球金融市场的影响 1.资金流动层面:美国利率的升降会引发国际资金的大规模流动。当美联储加息时,国际资金受高收益吸 引流入美国,新兴市场资金则面临流出压力,导致新兴市场股市、债市动荡,货币贬值。 2.利率路径影响:若美联储暗示降息,实际利率下行将直接提振黄金吸引力。历史数据显示,降息周期中金 价平均年涨幅达15%。 3.专业策略与教育:每天线上课程,由资深分析师解读全球市场行情动向与金价走势。 随着美联储未来可能在2025年下半年启动降息周期,黄金或迎来新一轮上行空间。高盛预测年内金价有 望触及3700美元,并在2026年中挑战4000美元关口。 领峰贵金属交易平台作为专业的贵金属交易平台,为投资者提供了优质的交易服务和 ...