Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows signs of differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining while the ChiNext Index rises over 1% [1][7]. Market Overview - The trading volume in the two markets continues to expand, exceeding 1.23 trillion yuan, with the precious metals sector declining due to falling gold prices, while the robotics sector experiences significant gains [3][7]. - Analysts believe that the downside risk in the A-share market is manageable, and there is potential for upward movement, enhancing the value of allocations [3]. Fund Management Insights - The active fund size has rebounded, increasing by 35.6 billion yuan to 3.46 trillion yuan in the first quarter, driven by a recovery in the A-share market and improved investor risk appetite [5][7]. - The latest top 20 heavy stocks held by funds reveal a focus on technology, with Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and Tencent Holdings being the top three holdings, valued at 146.8 billion yuan, 142.8 billion yuan, and 111.5 billion yuan respectively [8][9]. Sector Allocation Trends - Funds have increased their positions in technology stocks, with notable additions in Hong Kong-listed tech giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi [11]. - The active management funds have also increased allocations in sectors such as automobiles, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, while reducing exposure to power equipment and telecommunications [13][14]. Future Investment Directions - Key areas for potential investment include: 1. Domestic demand assets: Increased allocations in sectors like liquor, building materials, steel, beauty care, and retail [15]. 2. Recovery sectors: Increased positions in military, pharmaceuticals, and wind power components [16]. 3. Export chains: High positions maintained in sectors with strong performance expectations [17]. 4. Dividend assets: Reduced allocations to low levels, with potential for future increases [18]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds, and to flexibly adjust their portfolios to mitigate risks and seize opportunities [19].

Core Viewpoint - Dazhu CNC has achieved significant growth in 2024 after two consecutive years of declining revenue and profit, with a revenue increase of 104.56% and a net profit increase of 122.20% compared to the previous year [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Dazhu CNC reported a revenue of 3.343 billion yuan and a net profit of 301 million yuan [2] - For Q1 2025, the company continued its growth trend with revenues of 960 million yuan and a net profit of 117 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 27.89% and 83.60% respectively [2] - Despite the growth, the company's performance has not yet returned to pre-spin-off levels, as the net profit for Q1 2025 is still 66 million yuan lower than the same period in 2022 [5] Market Dynamics - The growth in Dazhu CNC's performance is primarily driven by a recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the electronics sector, which is closely linked to the PCB manufacturing industry [3][4] - The global electronic terminal market is expected to grow at a rate of 4.9% in 2024, with AI infrastructure demands significantly contributing to this growth [3] - The PCB industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029, with expectations for better performance in 2025 compared to 2024 [3] Margin and Cash Flow Concerns - The company's gross profit margin has dropped below 30% for the first time since 2020, falling to 28.11% in 2024, with significant declines in Q1 and Q3 [8][9] - The decline in gross margin is attributed to increased competition in mature product categories, particularly drilling equipment [9] - Despite revenue growth, the net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 262 million yuan year-on-year to 155 million yuan in 2024, and further declined to -335 million yuan in Q1 2025 [9] Strategic Initiatives - Dazhu CNC is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds for overseas expansion, with a focus on enhancing its international presence [2][11] - The company has reported an increase in overseas revenue from 5.35% in 2023 to 10.83% in 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [11] - Ongoing projects related to PCB specialized equipment production and technology development are progressing, with significant investments already made [12]

大族数控2024年营收33.43亿元，同比增长104.56%；净利润3.01亿元，同比增长122.20%；H股上市计划 推进，全球化战略提速。 2025年4月20日，大族数控发布了2024年年报。报告显示，公司2024年实现营业总收入33.43亿元，同比 增长104.56%；归属净利润3.01亿元，同比增长122.20%。这一业绩表现得益于AI产业链基础设施需求的 爆发，以及消费电子市场的复苏和汽车电子技术的升级。与此同时，公司宣布拟发行H股并在香港联交 所主板上市，进一步推进全球化战略。 业绩大幅增长，AI产业链成主要驱动力 大族数控2024年的业绩表现堪称亮眼，营收和净利润均实现翻倍增长。公司营业总收入从2023年的 16.34亿元大幅提升至33.43亿元，同比增长104.56%；归属净利润从1.36亿元增长至3.01亿元，同比增长 122.20%。这一增长主要得益于AI产业链基础设施需求的爆发，尤其是服务器和高速交换机的需求激 增，带动了全球PCB产业市场规模的扩大，下游客户的资本支出增加，从而拉动了公司PCB专用加工设 备订单的增长。 在压合工序方面，公司推出了层压系统，获得了汽车电子、AI服务器电源 ...

在组合配置上，冯炉丹降低了智能机器人相关标的权重，同时加大了AI应用场景、推理侧基础设施的 布局力度。此外，在国产AI产业链方面，从第三方采购方案向大型科技企业自研产业链倾斜。 随着公募基金2025年一季报密集披露，首批科技主题基金调仓动向浮出水面。 截至4月16日，朱雀基金、金信基金、中欧基金、永赢基金、长城基金等公募旗下部分科技类权益基金 产品一季报已出炉，一季报显示，上述基金继续加码AI产业链，信息技术成重仓方向。 具体来看，中欧基金冯炉丹管理的中欧数字经济混合一季度维持了较高仓位运作，冯炉丹重点关注AI 应用、机器人及智能驾驶、国产AI产业链、AI基础设施以及端侧AI五大核心赛道。前十大重仓股中， 信息技术类占据五席，腾讯控股、芯原股份、恒玄科技、翱捷科技、阿里巴巴-W合计占比30.08%；汽 车智能化领域布局了小鹏汽车-W、越疆。 面对AI市场的剧烈波动，多位基金经理在一季报中阐述了最新观点。 中欧基金冯炉丹指出，当前AI产业正面临三大关键转折：首先是AI Agent的商业化突破。未来一年AI代 理有望从概念走向实际应用落地。与传统ChatBot(聊天机器人)不同，这类程序能够独立运行、进行多步 推 ...

Macro and Industry - The first batch of technology-themed funds has revealed their adjustment trends, with fund companies like Yongying, Zhongou, and Changcheng continuing to increase their positions in the AI industry chain in the first quarter, focusing heavily on information technology and manufacturing sectors [3] - Fund managers predict that the commercialization breakthrough of AI agents is accelerating, while the continuous iteration of large models is underestimated, and the mass production and short-term growth capabilities of humanoid robots are overestimated [3] Capital Markets - A-shares rebounded from a low point, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.15% at 3267.66 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw slight declines of 0.27% and 0.13% respectively. The banking sector saw collective gains, and consumer stocks remained active [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.23% to 21466.27 points, marking six consecutive days of gains, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.67% [4] - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 40368.96 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.17% at 5396.63 points. Notably, Boeing and Caterpillar led the declines in the Dow [5] Commodity Market - The IEA's monthly report has lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 730,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 1,030,000 barrels per day, with further slowdown expected in 2026 [7] - Domestic commodity futures saw most contracts decline in the night session, with energy and chemical products generally down, while black metals showed mixed results [8] - The precious metals market saw gold and silver prices rise, with gold reaching a high of 766.74, up 0.73%, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts [10][11] Specific Sectors - In the black metal sector, rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed slight declines, with current steel demand remaining weak due to ongoing contraction in the real estate sector [11] - The agricultural products market saw fluctuations, with soybean meal prices declining while palm oil prices rebounded due to stable export tax rates [11] - The oil market continued to experience sideways movement, with geopolitical and fundamental factors being closely monitored [12]

| | | ■ 英伟达 分时 v 全部:周K ▽ ◎ ○ ○ VS FIO □ | | | | 报价 | 分析 资讯 · | 评论 · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | + 8 × ▽ × × × ▽ ▽ ▽ × × Aa ■ △ | | | | | NVDA 英伟达 | (0) | | | | | 盘前总额 5681.97万 盘 盘前分时 √ ○ ○ ⊙ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 110.710 ↓ -0.220 -0.20% | 收盘价 04/14 16:00 美东 | | 111.311 | | | | | 0.54% | | 110.930 ↑ 0.220 +0.20% | 盘前价 04/15 07:38 美东 | | 111.250 | | | | | 0.49% | | 二 24 S ~ ~ 9 目 ♥ | 快捷交易 | | 111.189 | | | | | 0.43% | | 最高价 114.290 开盘价 114.110 | 成交量 2.65亿 | | 111.127 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with electronic components and power generation equipment sectors leading the gains [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF (588930) opened significantly higher, rising over 1% as of the report, with a latest circulation size of 631 million shares and a total market size of 704 million yuan [1][2] - Key component stocks such as Daotong Technology and Tianzhun Technology rose nearly 4%, while Optoelectronics increased over 3% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced the exemption of tariffs on electronic products like smartphones and computers, which may alleviate price pressures for U.S. consumers and benefit major electronics companies including Apple and Samsung [2] - Huatai Securities views the tariff exemption as favorable for domestic fruit chain and PCB companies, suggesting that the core issues may shift back to overall demand and innovation pace, with optimism regarding the competitiveness and valuation recovery of Chinese enterprises [2][3] - Industrial chain analysis indicates that the impact of tariffs on the Apple supply chain and computing PCBs is largely eliminated, with expectations for recovery in product sales and supply chain pricing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of past trade tensions, particularly the 2019 US-China trade war, on current market conditions and investment opportunities, suggesting that the current market may be entering a stabilization phase after recent declines [3][36]. Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Context - The recent market sentiment has shifted to a risk-off mode, with significant declines in major indices, reminiscent of historical patterns where single-day drops of over 5% often lead to stabilization or recovery phases [3][4]. - Historical analysis indicates that after significant drops, markets can either enter a prolonged bear phase or stabilize, with the current situation aligning more closely with the latter scenario [4][36]. - The article draws parallels between the current market conditions and the 2019 trade tensions, highlighting that both periods faced unexpected tariff increases and subsequent market adjustments [6][37]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 2019 trade war presented both absolute and relative investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that demonstrated resilience or growth despite tariff impacts [12][41]. - Key sectors that thrived during the 2019 trade tensions included consumer staples, technology, and industries with low dependency on foreign demand, such as liquor and domestic appliances [16][43]. - The article identifies three main categories of sectors likely to benefit from current market conditions: those with low foreign demand dependency, sectors benefiting from independent technological innovation, and industries focused on domestic substitution [16][55]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Sector Allocation - The article suggests that the current market may begin to reflect increased domestic counter-cyclical measures, technological independence, and potential progress in US-China negotiations [25][61]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors poised for growth due to domestic demand stimulation, technological advancements, and opportunities arising from international trade dynamics [25][61]. - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include consumer services, technology supply chains, and industries involved in international trade initiatives like the Belt and Road [25][61].

核心结论 过去50余年，美股长期收益大幅领先其他资产：（1）复合收益率达10.7%：1972-2024年，美股以10.7%的复合收益率大幅跑赢其他资产，2012年以来美 股的超额优势显著；（2）美股的高收益但波动较低特征，使其成为全球风险资产中占优：风险-收益角度看，美国资产的风险收益比贴近有效边界，美股 收益率最高，波动率高于债券、房地产，但远低于大宗商品。 美股长牛的背后：盈利驱动+驱动宏观：（1）企业盈利的优势地位，是美股在全球权益市场领先的重要原因：对1970-2024年的标普500收益进行拆分，其 10.9%的复合收益中，盈利增长年化收增长6.6%，股息增长2.2%，估值变动1.8%，也即约六成是盈利贡献；（2）美股市场的相对稳定性，也即"牛长熊 短"的特征，很大程度上归因于其已成为美国居民的核心资产，"驱动宏观"属性较强：美股已成为美国居民最重要资产构成，美股大跌时，美联储倾向于 采取宽松货币政策以救市，Fed Put效应在美股市场上屡见不鲜，上市公司通过分红回购行动，同样起到股市稳定器作用。 往后看，按10年维度判断，美股长期收益大概率边际下滑：（1）按海外机构预期，未来10年美股年化收益率中位 ...

Group 1 - A50ETF Huabao (159596) achieved a trading volume of 67 million yuan with a turnover rate of 5.46%, ranking first among its peers [1] - The market is gradually focusing on high-performance, dividend, and low-volatility stocks as it approaches the earnings season in April [2] - There is an expectation for a rotation towards low-priced, high-performance stocks with strong earnings improvement potential [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in April, particularly in the first half, due to various internal and external disturbances [3] - Domestic macro policy expectations may shift due to an important meeting at the end of April, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy support [3] - Investment strategies should target sectors that have lagged behind, are undervalued, and have potential policy catalysts [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: stable banks and insurance with long-term strategic value, consumer sectors supported by policy, and metals with economic support [4] - A50ETF Huabao (159596) and its off-market linked funds (Class A 021216/Class C 021217) are recommended for investment [5] - MACD golden cross signals indicate positive momentum for certain stocks [6]