北京时间周二22:00，美国7月ISM非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)将出炉。权威媒体调查显示，美国7月 ISM非制造业PMI预计为51.5，此前6月份为50.8。 分析师指出，美国7月ISM服务业PMI可能会对美元和黄金产生影响，具体取决于其是倾向于支持降 息，还是倾向于支持长时间的暂停降息。 美国7月非农就业增长不及预期，且前两月数据合计下修25.8万个岗位，导致美元指数徘徊一周低位， 10年期美债收益率跌至一个月新低。CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员对美联储9月降息的押注已飙升至 90%。OANDA分析师指出："黄金短期技术面明显改善，但3450美元关口仍是关键阻力位，需要更强催 化剂才能突破。" 【技术分析】 值得注意的是，特朗普再次威胁对印度加征关税，地缘政治风险为国际金价提供额外支撑。市场人士认 为，在低利率预期与政治不确定性交织的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产的优势正在凸显。 摘要周二（8月5日）欧洲时段，国际黄金维持在两周高位附近震荡，最新黄金价格交投于3370美元一 线，市场分析认为，美国就业数据疲软引发的降息预期升温，与美印贸易争端加剧共同构筑了黄金 的"双重支撑"。本交易日聚焦美国 ...

OPEC+增产决定对市场产生直接影响，布伦特原油和WTI原油价格均出现下跌。该组织此次增产将全面逆转此前220万桶/日的减产措施，相当于全球需求的 2.4%左右。高盛预测显示，参与增产的8个成员国实际供应增加量将达到170万桶/日。 市场供应压力进一步加剧，因为其他OPEC+成员国在先前超额生产后已开始削减产量。这种供应端的重新平衡过程，使得原油价格面临持续的下行压力。 分析师普遍认为，今年晚些时候全球石油供应将开始超过需求，形成供应过剩局面。 印度等主要石油进口国开始寻找替代供应来源，向伊拉克、阿联酋和科威特等国询问额外石油供应的可能性。这种需求端的调整，进一步影响了全球原油贸 易流向和价格形成机制。 地缘风险与制裁威胁交织影响市场情绪 美国对俄罗斯能源领域实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及180多艘船只、数十家贸易商和两家主要石油公司。这些制裁包括冻结相关实体资产、禁止交易以及提供 保险服务等。制裁措施的实施，可能导致俄罗斯石油供应出现中断风险。 与此同时，地缘政治因素为市场带来不确定性。美国对印度购买俄罗斯石油施加压力，威胁征收高额关税。印度作为全球第三大石油进口国，每日进口约 175万桶俄罗斯原油。特朗普政府设 ...

Market Overview - International gold is currently trading at $3380.79 per ounce, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.91 and a rise of 0.20% [1] - Recent poor U.S. non-farm data has led the market to bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, driving gold prices significantly higher [1] - Changes in Federal Reserve officials and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are also influencing gold prices [1] - Uncertainties in trade negotiations and geopolitical risks continue to create volatility in gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart: Bollinger Bands are opening slowly, with gold prices operating above the middle band; MACD shows a death cross with a potential golden cross forming; RSI indicates oversold conditions with a rebound in the 62-53 range [1] - 4-hour chart: Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices below the upper band; MACD shows a golden cross; RSI indicates overbought conditions with a notable pullback; key support at 3300 and resistance at 3400 [1] - 1-hour chart: Bollinger Bands are opening slowly, with gold prices below the upper band; MACD shows a death cross; RSI indicates overbought conditions with weakening upward momentum; support at 3300 and resistance at 3400 [1] Future Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, consider buying near the support level of $3300, specifically in the range of $3315-25 [3] - For conservative traders, consider buying at the support level of $3250, specifically in the range of $3270-280 [3] - For aggressive traders, consider selling near the resistance level of $3400, specifically in the range of $3385-80 [3] - For conservative traders, consider selling at the resistance level of $3450, specifically in the range of $3440-30 [3]

特朗普还将印度所在的金砖国家集团（BRICS）描述为对美国"敌意"的组织，进一步加深了地缘政治的 分歧。印度外交部发言人强调，印度将继续采取一切必要措施维护国家利益和经济安全。俄乌冲突爆发 以来，印度因能源需求与俄罗斯保持密切关系，这不仅引发了与西方的外交摩擦，也为全球贸易格局带 来了不确定性。在地缘政治风险上升的背景下，投资者倾向于将资金配置到黄金等安全资产，以对冲潜 在的市场波动。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为786元/克至845元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于766元/克 至815元/克。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普近期宣布对数十个国家实施新一轮关税，并明确表示这些关税将维持不变，尤其是对印 度商品征收25%的关税。这一决定与印度从俄罗斯大量采购石油有关，特朗普批评印度通过转售俄油获 取巨额利润，忽视乌克兰局势的道德考量。印度方面则回应称，其能源进口是为了维护国内经济稳定， 并指责美国的针对行为"毫无正当性"。这种针锋相对的贸易争端加剧了全球市场的紧张情绪，推高了黄 金作为避险资产的需求。 今日周二（8月5日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of following market trends and avoiding emotional trading, particularly in the context of gold and oil prices influenced by recent economic data and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. - Recent economic data from the U.S. has been weak, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has contributed to a rise in gold prices [1][2]. - The ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and India, have heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 2 - Gold prices have shown significant upward momentum, reaching a high of $3385.26 per ounce, with a notable increase of approximately 0.3% on August 4, marking three consecutive days of gains [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated monetary policy easing is expected to weaken the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, creating favorable conditions for sustained increases in gold prices [2]. - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and developments in U.S. trade policy, as these factors could significantly impact gold market dynamics [2]. Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a slow upward trend, with key resistance levels identified at $3385 and potential support around $3340 [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies recommend selling on rebounds near resistance levels and buying on dips near support levels to manage risk effectively [5]. - The market is characterized by volatility, and traders are encouraged to maintain strict stop-loss measures and avoid holding losing positions [5].

一、美国经济数据疲软，降息预期点燃黄金热 1. 就业市场急剧恶化，经济信号不容乐观 近期公布的美国7月就业报告令人失望，非农 就业增长低于预期，且前两个月的数据被大幅下修25.8万个岗位。这表明美国劳动力市场正在经 历显著放缓，经济韧性面临挑战。RJO Futures高级市场策略师Daniel Pavilonis指出，疲软的就业数据为美联储降息提供了强有力的理由。市场 对9月降息的预期迅速升温，根据CME FedWatch工具，交易员认为9月降息的概率已从一周前的63%飙升至94.4%，甚至12月再次降息的可能性 也在增加。 2. 通胀压力与降息预期的微妙平衡 与此同时，美国PCE通胀数据在6月录得0.3%的增长，较5月上修后的0.2%进一步上升。通胀的持续存在为黄金提供了额外的支撑。黄金作为传 统的抗通胀资产，在通胀压力与降息预期并存的环境下，往往成为投资者的避险首选。Pavilonis强调，通胀的不利因素与降息预期的叠加，使 得黄金的看涨前景更加明朗。 3. 美债收益率震荡，黄金吸引力增强 美国公债收益率在就业数据公布后出现震荡下行，10年期公债收益率跌至4.202%，创下7月1日以来的最低水平。低收益率 ...

Group 1: Price Trends and Market Demand - Precious metal prices have significantly increased, with platinum and silver seeing notable price hikes, leading to a surge in consumer interest and sales [2][3] - As of August 4, platinum (Pt99.95) closed at 314.56 yuan per gram, up 40.57% from 223.77 yuan per gram at the end of 2024, while silver (Ag99.99) closed at 9201 yuan per kilogram, up 20.75% from 7620 yuan per kilogram at the end of 2024 [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand Drivers - Strong industrial demand is a core driver for the rising prices of precious metals, with silver being widely used in photovoltaic, 5G devices, and electronic components, and platinum playing a crucial role in the hydrogen energy industry [3] - The global energy transition has accelerated the installation of photovoltaic systems, directly boosting silver demand, while platinum's demand in fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen production is rapidly expanding [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks have significantly increased the safe-haven premium for silver and platinum, with ongoing conflicts affecting the export of platinum group metals from Russia and instability in the Middle East threatening key mineral transport routes [3] - The geopolitical conflicts and global economic uncertainties have heightened market risk aversion, leading to concerns over supply disruptions and triggering stockpiling behaviors [3] Group 4: Consumer Impact and Investment Trends - The rising prices of precious metal products are leading consumers to consider alternatives such as K-gold or gold-plated items, while the costs of renewable energy products may increase, indirectly raising the costs of green energy transitions [4] - There is a growing interest among individual investors in precious metals as a hedge against inflation, although high prices increase the risks associated with short-term speculation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are likely to continue a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, but the upside is limited. The actual supply increase is uncertain as OPEC+ production increase needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data**: On August 1, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly dropped to 527.9 yuan/barrel (-0.64% from the previous day), while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $69.36/barrel and $71.78/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly weakened to $1.43/barrel (previous value $2.08), a decline of 31.25%, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by $0.65 to $3.85/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened by 2.2 yuan to 11.6 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for near - month contracts [2]. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ announced on August 3 that it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan since 2024. The US supply is expanding, with May's crude oil production reaching a record 13.49 million barrels per day and Texas production increasing to 5.752 million barrels per day. However, the number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 5 to 410 in the week of August 1, suggesting a slowdown in short - term shale oil production growth. Geopolitical risks remain, such as the attack on a Russian refinery and the redirection of Russian oil tankers due to US sanctions [3]. - **Demand Side**: Demand shows structural differentiation. US petroleum product demand in May reached the highest point since January, and high refinery operating rates support short - term consumption. However, the expected year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's CPI in July dropped to 1.9% (previous value 2.0%), and the risk of economic slowdown may suppress oil demand. Asian buyers may increase their dependence on Middle Eastern and North American crude oil, indirectly supporting Brent and WTI prices [3]. - **Inventory Side**: There is no latest data on US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories, but EIA data shows that US crude oil and refined product supplies reached a new high in May. With the expected OPEC+ production increase, medium - and long - term inventory pressure may gradually accumulate [4]. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, but the upside is restricted. The supply increase is questionable as the actual capacity release of OPEC+ needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 1, 2025, SC crude oil futures price was 527.9 yuan/barrel, WTI was $67.26/barrel, and Brent was $69.52/barrel. The SC - Brent spread was $3.69/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $5.95/barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 42,669,100 barrels, a 1.84% increase from the previous period. The US refinery weekly operating rate was 95.4%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 1, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,916 yuan/ton, and the LU was 3,645 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory was 24.668 million barrels, a 4.09% increase from the previous period [8]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ decided on August 3 to increase oil production by 547,000 - 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 410 in the week of August 1. US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day [9][10]. - **Demand**: Iran lifted flight restrictions on August 2, which may increase oil demand. The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery, which may affect supply [11]. - **Inventory**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The number of medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts was 5,249,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous day. Russian export restrictions may lead to a tight global crude oil and refined product spot market [12]. - **Market Information**: On Monday, spot gold opened slightly higher, and WTI crude oil opened 0.5% lower. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased in the week of July 29. The eurozone's expected CPI year - on - year growth rate in July dropped to 1.9% [13]. Supply - Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, and various inventory data [16][18][22].

上周美元走弱，因数据显示7月非农就业人数仅增加7.3万人，6月数据下修为增加1.4万人，这重燃了市 场对美联储9月降息的希望。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计9月降息概率高达81%。 花旗还强调，2025年第二季度美国劳动力数据疲软，市场对美联储和美国统计数据机构的可信度担忧加 剧，以及与俄乌冲突相关的地缘政治风险升高。黄金传统上被视为政治和经济不确定性时期的避险资 产，在低利率环境中往往表现强劲。 花旗估计，自2022年年中以来，黄金总需求已增长超过三分之一，到2025年第二季度价格已接近翻倍。 该行补充称，黄金需求的强劲增长得益于投资需求旺盛、央行适度买入以及尽管价格走高但依然坚韧的 珠宝首饰需求。 根据Kitco新闻每周黄金调查，随着金价在上周收盘时触及关键短期阻力位3350美元/盎司，市场分析师 的情绪已升至最高点。上周共有17位市场分析师参与了黄金调查，无人投出看跌票。 花旗集团周一将未来三个月的黄金价格预测从3300美元/盎司上调至3500美元/盎司，预期交易区间也从 3100-3500美元调整为3300-3600美元，理由是近期美国经济增长和通胀前景恶化。 "2025年下半年，美国 ...

花旗还强调，2025年第二季度美国就业数据走弱，对美联储和美国统计数据的机构可信度担忧加剧，以 及与俄乌冲突相关的地缘政治风险上升。 该行表示："美国经济增长和与关税相关的通胀担忧将在2025年下半年继续加剧，加上美元走软，将推 动金价适度走高，达到历史新高。" 该行补充称，黄金需求强劲是受强劲的投资需求、温和的央行买入，以及尽管金价上涨，但珠宝需求依 然强劲等因素推动的。 传统上被视为政治和经济不确定时期避险资产的黄金，往往在低利率环境下走势强劲。 花旗估计，自2022年年中以来，黄金总需求已增长逾三分之一，到2025年第二季度，金价上涨了近一 倍。 ...