原油成品油早报 ·分析师：市场对美伊战争风险定价仍然不足 金十数据1月29日讯，财经网站investinglive分析师Adam Button表示，美国已向伊朗提出多项要求，但《纽约时报》 称，没有迹象显示伊朗会接受其中任何一项，甚至不愿就此展开谈判。该报称，美国和欧盟官员已向伊朗提出三项要 求：永久终止所有铀浓缩活动；限制弹道导弹的射程和数量；停止对中东地区所有代理武装的支持。此前还有报道称， 伊朗将被要求交出所有已完成浓缩的铀。任何国家都很难同意对弹道导弹这类传统武器设限，整件事听起来更像是将以 更多军事打击告终。我强烈怀疑油价受到买盘支撑的很大一部分原因在于市场正在计入美伊战争的可能性。特朗普在委 内瑞拉的"轻松胜利"或许让他尝到了政权更迭的甜头，而鲁比奥和内塔尼亚胡无疑也在推动采取行动。我认为，市场对 这里的风险定价仍然不足。 ·伊朗外交部长阿拉奇：伊朗武装部队已严阵以待，手指扣在扳机上，随时准备对任何"侵略"作出回应。 ·伊朗副外长：做好200%的自卫准备 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/29 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BR ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen for the third consecutive day due to increased military threats from the U.S. against Iran, with Brent crude surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September of the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures rose approximately 2.7%, reaching over $70 per barrel, while WTI crude futures exceeded $65 per barrel [1]. - As of the latest update, Brent crude futures were up 1.89% at $69.69 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increased by 1.27% to $64.48 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - President Trump issued a "last ultimatum" to Iran, indicating a potential military strike, which has heightened geopolitical risks and contributed to the rise in oil prices [2]. - Iran has responded strongly, stating that any military action from the U.S. would be considered the start of a war [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The recent threats from Trump have injected a risk premium into oil prices, with traders seeking to hedge against potential U.S.-Iran conflict [3]. - Call options have been priced higher than put options for approximately 14 months, indicating a sustained concern over geopolitical risks [3]. - Hedge funds have increased their net long positions in crude oil to the highest level since August of the previous year, reflecting growing confidence in rising oil prices despite earlier expectations of oversupply [6]. Group 4: Supply Chain Risks - The potential for U.S. military action against Iran could threaten oil supplies from the Middle East, which accounts for about one-third of global oil supply [6]. - The probability of significant disruptions in energy flows in the Gulf region due to Iranian retaliation has been raised from 15% to 20% by energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group [6].

作者 胡群 1月29日，国际黄金市场迎来历史性时刻，现货黄金价格强势突破5500美元/盎司，盘中最高达到 5595.44美元，距离5600美元整数关口仅一步之遥。东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞分析认为，近 期金价呈现加速上行态势，"单月涨幅达1200美元/盎司"，这一显著增长主要受地缘政治风险升级与美 元信用弱化双重因素驱动。他强调："本轮金价攀升已突破传统避险逻辑，反映出全球风险定价机制正 在发生结构性转变。"这一突破不仅体现了短期避险需求，更预示着全球货币体系正经历深度重构，黄 金正加速完成从传统储备资产到新型价值基准的历史性跨越。 来源：东方财富 此次历史性突破发生在全球宏观格局剧烈调整的背景下。与以往单一危机引发的避险行情不同，当前金 价异动嵌入在更广泛的制度性变革之中，各国对美元主导体系的信任度正经历系统性重塑。瞿瑞指出， 地缘政治风险扩散与货币政策不确定性相互交织，使得市场避险情绪持续升温，进而推动黄金需求显著 扩大；与此同时，美元指数走弱降低了黄金的持有成本，进一步助推金价创下新高。他特别提到，特朗 普政府近期对伊朗发出强硬军事威胁，而伊朗方面回应将采取前所未有的反制措施，地缘政治紧张局势 显 ...

多家机构看好金价长期走势，德意志银行预测今年金价或突破6000美元/盎司，东方金诚也认为，长期 来看，金价上涨的逻辑延续，且不具备逆转条件，国际黄金价格有望上涨至6000美元/盎司。但同时也 警示，短期涨幅过大积累了大量获利盘，可能引发技术性回调，投资者需警惕高位剧烈波动的风险。 监管应对：门槛与风险等级双提升 1月29日，国际现货黄金价格盘中强势突破5500美元/盎司大关，一度逼近5600美元关口。本周以来，金 价累计涨幅超500美元，年初至今涨幅已高达28%。回顾本轮行情，涨势之迅猛远超传统避险逻辑范畴 ——国际金价在短短一个月内飙升1200美元，从4000美元攀升至5500美元仅耗时不到三个月。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞指出，本轮金价飙升主要受三重因素驱动：一是地缘政治风险扩大 引发避险情绪急剧升温；二是政策不确定性提升；三是美元指数持续走弱，显著降低了黄金的持有成 本。这三股合力共同助推金价不断刷新历史新高。 驱动因素：地缘紧张与政策预期的共振 具体来看，地缘政治层面，近期局势急剧恶化。特朗普敦促伊朗尽快达成核协议，否则将面临远比去年 6月更为猛烈的军事打击，而伊朗方面则表态若被步步紧逼，将作 ...

摘要周四(1月29日)亚欧盘中，美国务卿卢比奥1月28日证实，美、丹、格陵兰岛已正式启动北极安全协 议技术性讨论。此举源于特朗普此前多次提议美国接管格陵兰岛(遭格、丹及欧洲盟友强烈反对)。卢比 奥称将谨慎推进，避免媒体炒作以增灵活性。地缘紧张局势支撑黄金避险需求，周四亚市现货黄金连续 第九日走强，交投于5530美元附近，日内涨约2%，一度触及5596.33美元历史新高。 周四(1月29日)亚欧盘中，美国务卿卢比奥1月28日证实，美、丹、格陵兰岛已正式启动北极安全协议技 术性讨论。此举源于特朗普此前多次提议美国接管格陵兰岛(遭格、丹及欧洲盟友强烈反对)。卢比奥称 将谨慎推进，避免媒体炒作以增灵活性。地缘紧张局势支撑黄金避险需求，周四亚市现货黄金连续第九 日走强，交投于5530美元附近，日内涨约2%，一度触及5596.33美元历史新高。 【要闻速递】 北极谈判根源(特朗普主权提议、美北极扩张)未消，主权争议为长期风险点，谈判破裂或强硬言论将推 升避险；美控委石油产业是颠覆全球能源格局的变量，"资源民族主义+大国干预"创造持续不确定性， 为黄金提供长期溢价。短期黄金偏强，中期关注两大议题：若北极谈判僵局或美对委政策 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant gains on January 29, with major contracts such as silver rising over 8%, gold and international copper over 7%, and copper over 6% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1864.00 points, up 71.46 points or 3.99% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Index closed at 2570.39 points, up 98.54 points or 3.99% [1] Group 2 - The bullish sentiment in the metal market intensified, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weak US dollar, with gold prices surpassing 5500 USD and silver breaking the 30000 CNY per kilogram mark [3][4] - Despite the bullish trend, there are concerns about potential price corrections due to profit-taking and increased regulatory scrutiny in the precious metals market [3] Group 3 - The copper market saw a surge in prices, with domestic and international copper prices rising over 4% to 8%, reaching historical highs, despite a backdrop of rising inventories and slowing demand [4] - The geopolitical situation, particularly threats of military intervention in Iran, continued to support the oil market, with domestic SC crude oil and fuel oil also experiencing gains of over 3% [4] Group 4 - The lithium carbonate market continued to decline, with prices dropping over 3% as market sentiment cooled, following a period of rapid price increases without sufficient supportive news [5] - The supply situation for lithium remains tight, with potential support for prices due to low overall inventory levels and maintenance at lithium salt plants during the upcoming holiday [5] Group 5 - The polysilicon market faced a downturn, with prices falling below 50,000 CNY per ton amid weak demand and high inventory levels, despite regulatory efforts to stabilize the industry [6] - The overall sentiment in the polysilicon market is cautious, with expectations of continued price weakness due to high inventory and uncertain downstream demand as the holiday approaches [6]

据央视新闻，当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。在此次利率政策出台前，市场 普遍预期美联储将在本周政策会议上维持利率不变，此前该机构已在2025下半年连续三次降息。 央广网北京1月29日消息（记者 宓迪）国际金价本周内连破多个重要关口，接连创下新高。Wind数据显 示，截至1月29日14时10分，现货黄金（伦敦金现）报5586.470美元/盎司，日内涨3.11%，最高触及 5598.750美元/盎司，创下新高；COMEX黄金期货价格报5583.3美元/盎司，当日涨4.55%，最高触及 5626.8美元/盎司，同样创下新高。今年以来，现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货涨幅分别达到29.37%、 28.88%。 国内黄金品牌金饰价格方面，截至记者发稿，周生生足金饰品价格为1708元/克；老庙足金饰品价格为 1706元/克；周大福足金（饰品、工艺品类）价格为1706元/克。 财信金控首席经济学家、财信研究院副院长伍超明对央广财经记者表示，今年以来金价呈现突破性上涨 态势，显示市场对贵金属的配置热情达到阶段 ...

gold.org Gold Demand Trends Q4 and Full Year 2025 Groundbreaking year for gold Demand volumes and the gold price both smash records Total gold demand in 2025, including OTC, exceeded 5,000t for the first time. Combined with the record-breaking run in the gold price – setting 53 new all- time highs during the year – this yielded an unprecedented value of US$555bn (+45% y/y). Heightened investment activity drove overall demand growth: global gold ETF holdings grew 801t – the second strongest year on record – ...

智通财经APP获悉，山东墨龙(00568)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.37%，报4.51港元，成交额5.99亿港元。 消息面上，1月28日晚，山东墨龙发布公告，于2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日，预计净利润为正值且 属于扭亏为盈情形。归属于上市公司股东的净利润400万元至600万元，同比增长109.15%至113.73%； 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损2850万元至2500万元，同比减少90.85%至91.97%。 值得关注的是，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普1月28日在社交媒体上说，一支庞大的舰队正前往伊 朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。他还称，希望伊朗能够迅速坐到谈判桌前。此举加剧了市场对中东地区 地缘政治风险可能扰乱石油供应的担忧。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that international gold prices have surged, with spot prices and April futures exceeding $5,500 per ounce, driven by various fundamental factors [1][2] - The gold market's value has increased by over $3.5 trillion, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 20% as of January 2026 [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, trade tensions, rising inflation pressures, and a declining dollar index are contributing to increased gold purchases by individual investors [1][2] Group 2 - Standard Chartered Bank notes that the demand for precious metals is not solely driven by speculation but is also supported by ongoing central bank demand [1] - Analysts suggest that the current rise in gold prices is driven by structural changes rather than technical buying, with prices moving from $4,000 to $5,500 in less than three months [1] - A report from XS.com indicates that the overall confidence in fiat currencies is weakening, and the stability of the global monetary and fiscal framework will influence future gold price trends [2] Group 3 - Most institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting stability at $5,400 by the end of the year and Deutsche Bank forecasting a rise to $6,000 as the dollar weakens [2] - Market participants warn that the rapid increase in gold prices may lead to a technical correction in the short term [3]