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金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：宏观水温舒适；白银：稳步爬升 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：960-1000元/克、14500-16000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落0.22%，伦敦银回升1.98%。金银比从前周的66.6回落至65.9，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.16%（2年期3.48%），美元指数录得98.7。 ◆ 本周贵金属价格继续上行，周五再度创出新高，COMEX白银突破67美元/盎司，沪银触及15769元/千克，COMEX黄金则是再摸 4409美元/盎司高位。宏观层面本周进一步释放压力，非农数据失业率出现明显回升，同时CPI显著回落，使得利率进 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：宏观水温舒适；白银：稳步爬升 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：960-1000元/克、14500-16000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落0.22%，伦敦银回升1.98%。金银比从前周的66.6回落至65.9，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.16%（2年期3.48%），美元指数录得98.7。 ◆ 本周贵金属价格继续上行，周五再度创出新高，COMEX白银突破67美元/盎司，沪银触及15769元/千克，COMEX黄金则是再摸 4409美元/盎司高位。宏观层面本周进一步释放压力，非农数据失业率出现明显回升，同时CPI显著回落，使得利率进 ...

Core Insights - The article compares two mining ETFs: Global X - Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), highlighting their differences in expense ratios, portfolio breadth, and risk profiles for investors seeking precious metals exposure [2][8]. Expense Ratios and Performance - GDX has a lower expense ratio of 0.51% compared to SIL's 0.65%, making it more cost-effective for investors [3] - Both ETFs have shown a 1-year return of 151% as of December 16, 2025, indicating strong performance in the precious metals sector [3] - GDX offers a lower dividend yield of 0.5% versus SIL's 1.08%, which may attract income-focused investors [3] Portfolio Composition - GDX provides exposure to 56 gold mining companies, primarily large-cap, with significant holdings in Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd, Newmont Corp, and Barrick Mining Corp, reflecting a diversified approach [5] - SIL focuses exclusively on silver miners, holding 39 stocks, with top positions in Wheaton Precious, Pan American Silver Corp, and Coeur Mining Inc, appealing to those seeking direct silver exposure [6] Market Context - Precious metals investing is seen as a hedge against inflation and a means of portfolio diversification, with silver prices recently reaching an all-time high and gold steadily rising [9] - Silver is noted for its higher volatility compared to gold due to its dual role as an industrial metal and a store of value, while gold is primarily viewed as a safe haven during economic or political instability [10] Risk Considerations - Both ETFs are focused on mining companies, which carry specific operational risks that can affect stock performance independently of the precious metals they mine [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆★, same as gold [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Not explicitly rated in terms of stars, but considered a good long - allocation variety in the medium - term, with a need to be vigilant about short - term risks [2] Core Viewpoints - The overnight US November CPI and core CPI unexpectedly dropped to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, with the core CPI at its lowest since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates think there is still room for interest rate cuts. The precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend. If gold can break through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [1] - The continuous rise of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the shift of funds in the precious metals sector, and the prospects of large - scale hydrogen energy applications during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period give platinum and palladium higher premiums. They are good long - allocation varieties in the medium - term, but short - term risks due to large price increases and possible high - level capital outflows need attention [2] Summary by Related Information US Economic Data and Interest Rate Expectations - US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year rose from 26.6% to 28.8% [2] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, in line with market expectations, and is likely to have ended the interest rate cut cycle [2] - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, and the governor said the pace of interest rate cuts would slow [2] - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.5% to 0.75%, reaching the highest level in 30 years [2]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月19日16时10分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌0.01%，沪银主力收跌0.46%，铂金主力收跌1.70%，钯金主力收涨涨1.67%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，特朗普称 乌克兰和平谈判"接近结果"，美俄官员本周末将会晤。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方 面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置， 可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下 次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期 强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指 ...

Core Insights - The platinum group metals (PGMs), including platinum and palladium, have experienced a significant price surge, with both futures and spot prices reaching historical highs, prompting the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to implement trading limits to cool market enthusiasm [1][3][7] Price Surge in Futures Market - On December 18, the domestic PGM market saw a comprehensive explosion, with platinum futures (PT2606) peaking at 549.9 yuan/gram and closing at 542.6 yuan/gram, marking a daily increase of 5.32%. Palladium futures (PD2606) closed at 476.6 yuan/gram, up 6.99%, with multiple contracts showing strong closing performance [3] - Internationally, platinum prices reached a high of $1995.6 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 114%, while palladium peaked at $1787 per ounce, reflecting an approximate 85% rise, both achieving significant new highs [3] - The jewelry market followed suit, with prices for platinum jewelry surpassing 800 yuan/gram, reaching 815 yuan/gram, and the Shenzhen market seeing platinum jewelry prices rise to around 470 yuan/gram, a 56% increase from approximately 300 yuan/gram earlier in the year [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in PGM prices is attributed to a combination of fundamental, policy, and financial factors, with a tight supply being the core driver. South Africa, the largest platinum supplier, is facing production challenges due to extreme weather, power shortages, and aging mines, leading to a projected 13% year-on-year decline in PGM output by Q1 2025 [5] - The current one-month leasing rate for platinum remains above 10%, indicating strong holder reluctance to sell and a scarcity of deliverable spot metal, which has created a liquidity crisis that has transmitted to the futures market, resulting in strong buying pressure [5] - Demand remains robust, particularly in the automotive catalyst sector, with the hydrogen energy industry further enhancing platinum's catalytic value. Additionally, the listing of platinum and palladium futures options has stimulated investment and hedging demand [5] Market Regulation and Diverging Opinions - As the market experiences significant price increases, opinions on the future performance of PGMs have diverged. Some analysts believe the current price surge may be excessive and could face correction pressure next year, while others argue that structural supply shortages will support higher price levels in the long term [7] - To mitigate excessive market volatility, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading limits on platinum and palladium futures contracts, effective December 23, 2025, restricting daily opening positions for non-futures company members or clients to a maximum of 500 lots [7]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 贵金属价格持续走强，主力合约沪银2602昨日收于15521元/千克，涨幅3.44%，日减仓2.56万手；主力 合约沪金2602昨日收于980.50元/克，日减仓372手。 贵金属近期表现仍沿宽松主线演绎：12月美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。美联 储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，逐次会议将依据数据决策。通胀仍偏高，但 非关税驱动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预计2026年第一季度见顶。利率已处于中性 区间上端，政策正从限制性向中性过渡。整体看，降息时点不确定性对于贵金属的价格利空正逐步出 清。此外，除了12月预期内的降息之外，每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划可能推动对于边际上更 加宽松货币政策的预期，或是推动近期贵金属价格走强的主要因素之一。 基本面看，白银现货仍偏向 紧张；尽管LBMA白银库存略有回升，但SLV白银ETF实物持仓仍使得可交割 ...

12月18日，铂、钯期货延续强劲走势。截至当日午盘收盘，铂期货主力2606合约报542.65元/克，上涨 5.32%；钯期货主力2606合约报476.6元/克，上涨6.99%。12月12日至今，铂、钯期货价格均已涨逾 20%。 昨晚，广期所公告，根据《广州期货交易所风险管理办法》，经研究决定，自2025年12月23日交易时 起，非期货公司会员或者客户在铂期货PT2606、PT2608、PT2610、PT2612合约上单日开仓量分别不得 超过500手，非期货公司会员或者客户在钯期货PD2606、PD2608、PD2610、PD2612合约上单日开仓量 分别不得超过500手。 中信期货分析师王美丹认为，基本面偏紧将为铂价提供较强的上行动力。当前，铂需求处于结构性扩张 阶段，供应紧缺状态预计将延续。预计铂2025年供需缺口扩大至46.4吨，2026年约37.9吨。 从宏观环境来看，邓伟斌表示，美联储进入降息周期，美元指数走弱降低了持有贵金属的机会成本。同 时，在金银价格大幅上涨后，市场资金寻找价值洼地，铂、钯顺势成为贵金属板块的焦点。 值得注意的是，近期日元套息交易松动。顾冯达表示，若日本央行政策转向导致日元套息交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of precious metals, particularly gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, highlighting the significant price increases in 2023 and the differing forecasts for 2024 and beyond from various financial institutions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of December 18, 2023, precious metals have been the main drivers of market gains, with palladium contracts hitting the limit up, platinum rising over 5%, and silver increasing more than 3% [3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 65%, silver has increased by more than 126%, platinum has risen over 116%, and palladium has seen a 95% increase [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - BMO Capital Markets predicts that gold will continue its upward trend, with an expected average price of $4,600 per ounce in the first half of 2024 and an annual average of $4,550 per ounce for 2026 [3]. - The outlook for silver is more complex, with BMO forecasting an average price of approximately $56.30 per ounce for 2026, peaking at around $60 per ounce in Q4 2026 [4]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates a slowdown in gold price increases due to reduced purchases by central banks and ETFs, predicting a price of $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2024, while silver is expected to underperform [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver trading has led to record high futures trading volumes in the U.S., with over 158,000 contracts traded on December 17, 2023 [6]. - The value of silver has surpassed that of crude oil for the first time in over 40 years, indicating its growing importance as both an industrial and investment asset [6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates further, which could weaken the dollar and increase demand for non-dollar assets [7]. - Barclays Bank predicts two rate cuts in 2024, aligning with the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve [7].