Core Insights - The silver market has seen a significant breakthrough, with prices surpassing previous highs and currently trading above $43.50 per ounce, while gold remains stable in its historical high range [1] - Silver has experienced a 50% increase this year, reaching its highest level since 2011, while gold has also performed well with a nearly 40% increase so far in 2025 [3] - The demand for silver is largely driven by the rising gold prices, as some investors who missed the opportunity in gold are turning to silver to catch up in the precious metals bull market [3] - The weakening US dollar and economic uncertainties have led investors to view precious metals as core assets for hedging against inflation and risk, resulting in significant inflows into gold and silver markets [3] - The rising gold prices are attracting more retail investors to the precious metals sector, with silver being a preferred choice due to its lower entry barriers and higher potential returns [3] Industry Analysis - Despite the similarities in financial attributes between silver and gold, silver's extensive industrial applications make its risk profile more pronounced, as its price is closely tied to macroeconomic cycles and industrial demand [4] - A potential global economic downturn or weaker industrial demand could lead to greater downside pressure on silver prices compared to gold [4]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and the same for silver. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels. The option strategy is to hold off [8]. Core View - The market still tends to bet that the Fed will continue the rate - cut process in October, and the logic of dollar asset substitution remains. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 820 yuan/gram - 850 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the existence of loose macro - expectations and the narrowing expectation of the gold - silver ratio given industrial demand, the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10100 yuan/kilogram - 10600 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem emphasized that the current interest rate level is between "slightly restrictive and neutral", and the room for future rate cuts is limited. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he does not currently support further rate cuts because "inflation has remained too high for a long time". Fed Governor Milan said that unless the situation changes, he will continue to promote rate cuts and is willing to vote against again. Geopolitically, France officially recognized the State of Palestine, and 152 out of 193 UN member states have recognized Palestine, with only the US among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council not recognizing it [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 831.02 yuan/gram and closed at 846.50 yuan/gram, a 1.92% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 847.5 yuan/gram and closed at 850.98 yuan/gram, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9971.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10317.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 789,654 lots, and the open interest was 504,051 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10348 yuan/kilogram, a 0.30% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 22, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.147%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.546%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 22, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 1016 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by - 263 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 362,999 lots, a - 22.77% change from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,340,506 lots, a - 21.56% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 994.56 tons on the previous day, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,369 tons, an increase of 164 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 22, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was - 19.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1087.95 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.05, a - 0.59% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.60, a - 1.29% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On September 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,222 kilograms, a - 5.12% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 606,548 kilograms, a - 21.67% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,508 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,330 kilograms [7].

Group 1 - International gold prices surged to a historic high, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $61.8 to $3781.2 per ounce, marking a 1.66% increase [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings exceeded 1000 tons for the first time since August 2022, indicating strong investment demand [2] - Silver prices also reached a fourteen-year high, with December silver futures increasing by $0.95 to $44.315 per ounce, reflecting a 2.19% rise [3] Group 2 - Market confidence in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains high, despite cautious statements from officials regarding inflation and rate adjustments [1] - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [2] - The silver market is expected to experience a fifth consecutive year of supply-demand imbalance, contributing to bullish expectations for silver prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 2.01% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.81%. The report predicts that precious metals will fluctuate upward in the short - term and step - up in the long - term [2] - Gold price trend is the anchor for silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are reached in batches, concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 interest - rate cuts are still expected within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure to rebound. The CRB commodity index is under pressure to rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] - **Data Summary**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have shown different degrees of changes. For example, Comex gold主力合约收盘价 increased by 1.12% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8.36% compared to the previous day [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have changed. For example, the main Comex silver contract increased by 3.00% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 16.15% compared to the previous day [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate both decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% compared to the previous week [9] - **Other Key Data**: Data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys in the US, as well as data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign - exchange reserve ratios, and various risk and commodity - related indices, are presented with their corresponding changes [10][11][12] - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different future meeting dates is provided [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. However, due to the coexistence of inflationary upside and employment downside risks, there are significant differences within the Fed regarding interest rate forecasts. Powell indicated that this is a risk management-type rate cut, and his hawkish remarks have brought uncertainty to the rate cut path in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the market still places high bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly. [3] - In the short term, affected by the realization of the Fed's rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar index, precious metals will experience a brief correction. From a medium- to long-term fundamental perspective, it is expected that the transmission of tariffs to inflation will gradually become apparent. If inflation significantly heats up and the employment market shows signs of recovery in the second half of the year, it may affect the Fed's rate cut rhythm, which will be negative for precious metals. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the investment demand for precious metals from central banks and investors remains strong, providing bottom support for precious metals prices. The long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of Shanghai Gold is long-term bullish, short-term oscillating, and investors should pay attention to correction opportunities. In the medium term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai Silver is short-term oscillating, and in the medium term, it is recommended to buy on dips. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The spot price of gold in the London market increased by 0.33% to $3663.15 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 1.05% to $3719.40 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 0.47% to 830.56 yuan per gram, and the price of Gold A (T+D) decreased by 0.52% to 826.00 yuan per gram. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 1.41% to 3946.35 million ounces, and the total COMEX gold position increased by 1.29% to 520,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.78% to 266,400 lots. The spot price of silver in the London market decreased by 0.06% to $42.24 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price rose by 1.60% to $43.37 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 0.64% to 9971.00 yuan per kilogram, and the price of Silver A (T+D) decreased by 0.94% to 9940.00 yuan per kilogram. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.64% to 52404.33 million ounces, and the total COMEX silver position increased by 3.99% to 163,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX silver decreased by 4.45% to 51,500 lots [5]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The domestic gold-silver ratio fell to around 83 last week, and the overseas gold-silver ratio fell to around 85, still higher than its long-term historical average. After the Fed cut interest rates in September, in line with market expectations, precious metals prices rose and then corrected due to profit-taking by investors [7]. - **Domestic-Overseas Price Spread**: The domestic-overseas price spreads of gold and silver both decreased compared to the previous week. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Dollar Index**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% at its September FOMC meeting, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. After the interest rate decision was announced, the US dollar index plunged and remained at a low level, boosting precious metals prices. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals prices oscillated strongly [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: After the Fed announced its September interest rate decision, the real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds declined. However, subsequent hawkish remarks by Powell and a decrease in the number of unemployment benefit claims announced on Thursday indicated a slowdown in the weakening trend of the labor market, causing the real yields of US Treasury bonds to rebound [16]. - **Key US Economic Data**: In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The PPI was 2.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, and -0.1% month-on-month, turning negative for the first time in four months. The core PCE price index in July increased by 2.88% year-on-year, and the PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year. The ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and the ISM services PMI was 52. Retail sales in August increased by 0.63% month-on-month. The ADP employment number in August increased by only 54,000, and non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of initial unemployment benefit claims last week decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 [20][24][27]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut and Geopolitical Factors**: The Fed's September interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but Powell's remarks were hawkish. The market still has high expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Sino-US negotiations have made progress, while the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to disrupt the market [34]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the speculative net long position of CMX gold increased by 47,000 lots to 266,400 lots, while the speculative net long position of CMX silver decreased by 24,000 lots to 51,500 lots [37]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 19, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased last week [38]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 3946.35 million ounces, a 1.41% month-on-month increase, and the COMEX silver inventory was 52404.33 million ounces, a 0.64% month-on-month decrease [42]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In September 2025, the global gold reserve increased by 15.24 tons to 36,359.73 tons. China's gold reserve increased by 1.87 tons to 2300.40 tons, the 10th consecutive month of increase. In the second quarter of 2025, the global total gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with strong industrial demand for silver [45]. This Week's Key Focus - **Fed Officials' Speeches**: Fed officials will deliver speeches on the US economic outlook this week. Pay attention to the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy [46]. - **Key US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index for August and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September will be released this week. Pay attention to the US inflation situation [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand and potential for silver, particularly driven by its industrial applications and the ongoing bullish trend in precious metals due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] - Silver prices have shown a significant increase, with a cumulative rise of over 33% in the past five months, compared to a 12% increase in gold prices during the same period [1] - The World Silver Association predicts a supply deficit in the global silver market, reaching 117.6 million ounces by 2025, indicating a sustained demand for silver [1][2] Group 2 - The recovery in the photovoltaic industry and the positive outlook for the energy storage sector are contributing to the strong demand for silver as a key metal in energy transition [2] - The European Photovoltaic Association forecasts that global solar power installations will reach 655 GW in 2025 and 665 GW in 2026, further boosting silver's industrial demand [2] - Investment demand for silver remains high, with the largest silver ETF maintaining holdings above 15,000 tons, indicating strong market interest despite being below historical highs [2][3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics favor a scenario where silver prices could reach $50 per ounce, driven by both investment and industrial demand [2][3] - The relationship between gold and silver is characterized as "gold on the stage, silver in the spotlight," indicating that while gold leads in a bull market, silver is expected to follow with significant gains [3] - There is a cautionary note regarding the historical pattern where surging silver prices may coincide with a peak in gold prices, necessitating close monitoring of market trends [3]

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - **Report Date**: September 22, 2025 - **Reporting Institution**: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut has been implemented, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, leading to a strong - side oscillation in precious metal prices. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US August PCE data to be released on Friday [7][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut was implemented, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, and the price of US gold continued to oscillate strongly. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3,719 per ounce, up 1.1% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3,760, and the lower support level is $3,640 [7]. - **Silver**: Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut was implemented, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, and the price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 1.6%, closing at $43.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $42, and the upper resistance level is $45 [10]. 3.2 Weekly View - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut was implemented, and the market anticipates a lower end - point for this round of rate cuts, causing precious metal prices to oscillate strongly. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the total non - farm payrolls for March. The US August PPI data was lower than expected, and the dot - plot of the FOMC meeting shows two more rate cuts. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries have been finalized, with the tariff increase generally lower than market expectations, leading to increased optimism about a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be persistent. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US August PCE data to be released on Friday [12]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - to - dollar and pound - to - dollar exchange rates, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), Fed's balance sheet size and its weekly changes, gold - to - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends, but no specific analysis is provided [16][18][21]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - **US August Retail Sales MoM**: The announced value was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5% [26]. - **US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ended September 13**: The announced value was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value of 263,000 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - **Fed Meeting in September**: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut this year after a cut in December last year. The dot - plot indicates two more rate cuts this year, generally in line with expectations. The statement emphasizes the downward risk of employment compared to the July meeting. Powell believes that tariffs have a one - time impact on core commodity inflation, and the probability of persistently high inflation is low. - **Economic Forecast Adjustment**: The Fed slightly raised the economic growth forecasts for 2025 - 2027, with increases of 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively compared to the June forecasts, reaching 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%. It maintained the forecast of an annual unemployment rate of 4.5% this year and slightly lowered the unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3%. The Fed is more optimistic about the economic growth outlook and believes that the risks in the job market are generally controllable [27]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory increased by 17,077.21 kg to 1,227,454.08 kg this week, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,479 kg to 57,429 kg [14]. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 105,128.15 kg to 16,299,580.27 kg this week, and SHFE inventory decreased by 87,126 kg to 1,159,443 kg [14]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: As of September 16, the CFTC speculative fund net long position was 256,079 contracts, an increase of 728 contracts from last week [14][34]. - **Silver**: As of September 16, the CFTC speculative fund net long position was 48,778 contracts, a decrease of 2,111 contracts from last week [14][34]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - **Tuesday (September 23), 21:45**: US September SPGI Manufacturing PMI Flash - **Thursday (September 25), 20:30**: US Q2 Real GDP Annualized QoQ Final Value - **Friday (September 26), 20:30**: US August PCE Price Index YoY [36] Strategy Suggestion - Trade cautiously and within a range. Refer to the operating range of 820 - 855 for the SHFE gold December contract and 9,800 - 10,500 for the SHFE silver December contract [14].

Core Insights - Silver has increased approximately 44% this year, approaching its recent high during the pandemic [1] - Gold has risen about 39% in the same timeframe [1] Summary by Category - **Performance Metrics** - Silver's price increase is around 44% year-to-date, nearing its peak observed during the pandemic [1] - Gold's price has appreciated by approximately 39% this year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.64%. The short - term core logic includes: in terms of short - term hedging, trade agreements are being reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at high levels in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver decreased slightly, and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. Summary by Section Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) also rose. The basis and spreads, and various ratios showed different changes. The positions of Comex gold increased, while the positions of Shanghai gold main contract decreased. The inventories of LBMA and Shanghai gold remained stable, while the Comex gold inventory decreased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased slightly [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai gold futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [7]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) showed mixed trends, and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) increased. The basis and spreads changed. The positions of Comex silver decreased, while the positions of Shanghai silver main contract increased. The visible inventory of silver increased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the iShare silver ETF inventory increased [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai silver futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the VIX index increased, while the geopolitical risk index decreased significantly [9][12]. - **Interest Rate Spreads and Inflation**: The US - EU and US - China interest rate spreads (10 - year bond yields) increased. The CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change. The inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [11]. - **Economic Indicators**: GDP growth showed different trends in annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate increased, and non - farm payrolls decreased. The labor participation rate decreased, and average hourly wage growth slowed down. Other economic indicators in the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys also showed various changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The central bank gold reserves of China increased slightly, while those of the US remained stable. The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign exchange reserves increased, while the proportion of the euro decreased. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves increased globally and in China and the US [12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate range in different periods from October 2025 to October 2027 [13].

Core Insights - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. saw the largest decline in nearly four years, reversing a significant increase from the previous week, although there are concerns about the accuracy of the data due to a reported underestimation in North Carolina [1][2][3] - Gold prices fell for the third consecutive day, influenced by cautious trader sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and a strengthening dollar, with prices retreating approximately $70 from a recent record high [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent comments, particularly from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicated a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, which contributed to the decline in gold prices [3] Market Reactions - Following the jobless claims data, spot gold experienced a drop of over $40 at one point, ultimately closing down 0.41% at $3643.75 per ounce, while spot silver rebounded slightly, closing up 0.35% at $41.79 per ounce [1][2] - The dollar index saw a decline on the same day, reflecting market volatility and the potential impact of political pressures on the Federal Reserve's policy independence [3] Future Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact, with key support levels identified at $3550 for gold and $40 for silver [4] - Continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings are expected to support a recovery in gold and silver prices [4]