Demand - In August, external demand is expected to outperform internal demand, with exports projected to decline by 5.1% due to high base effects and tariff impacts, but the pressure is manageable due to improving external demand and market share gains[1] - Domestic consumption and manufacturing investment are expected to weaken, with retail sales projected to grow by only 4.4% year-on-year, influenced by limited use of subsidy funds[1][27] - High-frequency indicators show that retail sales of passenger cars and white goods in August increased by only 0.8% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively[27] Supply - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating sustained production activity, with the production index increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%[3][45] - Industries with high external demand, such as textiles and specialized equipment, showed significant production index increases of 23.6 percentage points to 57.1% and 8.6 percentage points to 63.9%, respectively[49] - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by resilient indicators in the export chain[4][54] Inflation - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show limited year-on-year improvement at -2.9%, despite rising commodity prices and a low base effect, with the main raw material purchase price index increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 53.3%[5][61] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year in August, constrained by weak food prices and downstream PPI[6]

Economic Indicators - August 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline to -0.3%[3] - July 2025 PPI is projected to increase by about 0.4% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.5%[3] - Industrial added value is anticipated to rebound slightly to 6.0% year-on-year in August 2025[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to rise to 4.5% year-on-year in August 2025[3] Investment and Trade - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to continue declining, reaching a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.3%[3] - Exports in dollar terms are projected to decrease to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] - Trade surplus for August 2025 is estimated at 992 million USD, up from 982 million USD in the previous period[4] Financial Metrics - Monthly increase in credit is expected to be 10,500 million CNY, a significant improvement from a decrease of 500 million CNY previously[4] - Total social financing is projected to increase by 26,000 million CNY for the month, compared to 11,320 million CNY previously[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.8%[4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that South Korea's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.7% year-on-year in August, which is below the expected 2% and lower than the previous value of 2.10% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The updated time of the current fundamental high - frequency data is from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025. The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds expands, with a signal factor of 5.0% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.6, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 43.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points, and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.0, with a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.1%, and that of PPI is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.6, with a week - on - week increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency transportation index is 130.2, with a week - on - week increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency financing index is 235.6, with a week - on - week increase of 29.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering the overall situation, production, demand, prices, and financing is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices are built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 86.7%, up from 86.5%; the semi - tire operating rate is 72.8%, down from 73.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 63.8%, down from 64.8%; the PTA operating rate is 70.9%, down from 76.2%; the PX operating rate is 84.6%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 48.4 tons, up from 47.7 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters, up from 212,000 square meters; the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6%, down from 10.3% [30]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Decreases - The operating rate of petroleum devices is 29.3%, down from 30.7% [39]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1156 points, down from 1175 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.0 points, up from 296.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Decreases - The daily average box office of movies is 152.4 million yuan, down from 176.7 million yuan [61]. CPI: Agricultural Product Prices Remain Stable - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.0 yuan per kilogram, down from 20.1 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan per kilogram, up from 4.8 yuan; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan per kilogram, up from 17.5 yuan [68]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 695 yuan per ton, down from 703 yuan; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 68 US dollars per barrel, up from 67 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9725 US dollars per ton, up from 9616 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2616 US dollars per ton, up from 2577 US dollars [72]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 39.37 million person - times, down from 40.09 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,473, down from 14,834 [83]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 153,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons; the soda ash inventory is 1.878 million tons, down from 1.904 million tons [91]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Continues to Rise - The net financing of local government bonds is 243.5 billion yuan, up from 208.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 30.4 billion yuan, up from - 48.4 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.7%, up from 0.6%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.9%, up from - 1.03% [102].

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for September 2025, including employment data and manufacturing indices in the US and China [1][2] - Key dates include the US non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's economic conditions report, which are critical for assessing economic health [1] - The article highlights the importance of consumer confidence indices in both the Eurozone and the US, which are expected to influence market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The article mentions the release of China's August trade balance and M2 money supply data, which are significant for understanding the country's economic performance [1] - It also notes upcoming monetary policy decisions from major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, which could impact global financial markets [1][2] - The article outlines the importance of oil inventory data in the context of energy markets, particularly in relation to US crude oil production [2]

Group 1 - The PCE index is considered a more comprehensive measure of economic inflation compared to the CPI, as it includes non-profit institution consumption and dynamically adjusts the weight of goods to reflect substitution effects [2] - The upcoming data will reveal the true extent of tariff cost transmission, with the full chain of cost impact from ports to retail having been completed since spring [2] - Despite signals of a policy shift from the Federal Reserve, high inflation may still limit the space for interest rate cuts, with economists believing that unless the upcoming August CPI shows a significant increase, the Fed's plans for a rate cut in September will remain unchanged [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 0.5% month-on-month in July, driven primarily by a surge in new car sales, with annualized sales reaching 16.4 million vehicles [3] - The growth in personal consumption expenditures is projected to slow down to 1.3% in the third quarter and further to 1.1% in the fourth quarter, influenced by rising prices and the job market [3] - The slowdown in consumer spending, a core driver of the U.S. economy, will directly constrain overall economic performance, leading to a more complex adjustment in the coming months due to inflation pressures and expectations of policy easing [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August increased by 2.6% year-on-year, matching market expectations but showing a decrease from the previous value of 2.9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of former President Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve, suggesting that his attempts to undermine its independence could threaten the stability of the U.S. dollar and the broader financial system [1][5][10]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, to lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy and reduce debt costs ahead of the midterm elections [1][4][10]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to rising inflation and unemployment in the U.S., as well as the significant national debt of $36 trillion, which incurs over $1 trillion in interest annually [4][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to prevent financial crises, designed to be an independent entity that balances power between the government and private banks [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar and preventing inflation, as historical instances of political interference have led to severe economic consequences [9][11]. Group 3: Potential Consequences - Trump's actions could lead to a loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve, prompting global investors to sell off U.S. dollars and bonds, which could destabilize the financial system [10][12]. - The article warns that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence for personal political gain could have dire repercussions, as seen in past instances where political pressure led to rampant inflation [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that consumption is showing signs of recovery, while different sectors of the economy are experiencing varying trends. The weekly economic index has rebounded, with both production and demand sub - indices rising. However, there are also areas of decline, such as in real estate sales and some export price indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 6.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 7.9%, up 0.1 percentage points, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was - 2.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production last week was 25.1%, a 9.7 - percentage - point increase. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.3%, down 0.3 percentage points, and the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 73.1%, up 1.0 percentage point [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipment rate last week was 39.8%, down 0.3 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 37.9%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 30.7%, down 2.2 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities last week was - 14.3%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 13.0%, a 11.0 - percentage - point decline [1]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the daily average retail sales of passenger cars last week was 8.0%, a 12.0 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was 45.6%, up 18.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 1.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.0%, up 1.4 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Export - South Korea's export year - on - year in mid - August was 18.0%, a 22.3 - percentage - point increase from the first ten - day period. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) last week was - 54.4%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 17.6%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index last week was - 9.2%, a 2.0 - percentage - point decline. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 23.3%, down 2.4 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 18.1%, down 2.6 percentage points [2]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index last week was 3.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 14.4%, down 0.2 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was 2.5%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 19.0%, up 2.1 percentage points, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was - 10.1%, up 0.4 percentage points [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].