"CPI环比下降主要受季节性因素和油价下行影响。"董莉娟说，天气转暖，部分鲜活食品大量上市，食 品供应总体充足。3月份食品价格环比下降，影响CPI环比下降约0.24个百分点，占CPI总降幅六成。此 外，旅游淡季出行人数减少，出行类价格有所下降。其中，飞机票和旅游价格分别下降11.5%和5.9%， 合计影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点。 3月份CPI同比、环比有所下降，但提振消费需求等政策效应逐渐显现，加之春节错月影响消退，更多 方面显现出明显的积极变化。董莉娟介绍，从环比看，CPI环比降幅小于近十年同期平均水平0.2个百分 点。"以旧换新"等政策效应逐渐显现，扣除能源的工业消费品价格环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.3 个百分点；从同比看，CPI同比降幅收窄，比上月收窄0.6个百分点。 "扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI明显回升，同比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.5%。"董莉娟说，其中，服 务价格同比由上月下降0.4%转为上涨0.3%，对CPI的影响由上月下拉0.15个百分点转为上拉0.13个百分 点。 国家统计局4月10日发布的数据显示，3月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，全国工业 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The food price decline year-on-year shrank by 1.9 percentage points to -1.4%, reducing its downward impact on CPI by 0.35 percentage points[5] - Non-food prices increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, contributing an additional 0.24 percentage points to CPI[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.5% year-on-year in March, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The decline in production materials prices increased by 0.2 percentage points to -0.4%, with significant drops in the mining and raw materials sectors[7] - The PPI is expected to decrease by approximately 2.8% in April, continuing a trend of negative growth throughout the year[8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The low inflation environment is expected to persist in the short term, with CPI likely to continue negative growth in the second and third quarters[9] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are anticipated to focus on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and supporting private enterprises[9] - The impact of external factors, such as global economic slowdown and trade pressures, is expected to further challenge domestic inflation recovery[9]

CPI Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased to 0.5% year-on-year from -0.1% in the previous month[11] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, a narrowing of the decline by 1.9 percentage points compared to last month[10] PPI Analysis - March PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.5%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4%[17] - Production materials prices fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with the largest drop in the mining industry, particularly coal and oil extraction[17] - Living materials prices decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a further decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[17] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food, services, and consumer goods[24] - The overall inflation target of 2% for the year remains distant, with new consumption policies anticipated to provide some support[24] - April PPI is likely to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with a focus on expanding internal demand and stabilizing growth policies[25]

Inflation Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.5% in March from -0.1% in February, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[10] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[9] PPI Trends - March PPI year-on-year fell by 2.5%, with production materials down by 2.8%, marking an increase in the decline by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors experienced the largest declines, with coal mining PPI down by 14.9% year-on-year[18] - Manufacturing and construction sectors showed seasonal demand expansion, but overall industrial demand remains weak, impacting PPI negatively[23] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food and service sectors, but seasonal factors may lead to a decline in food prices[22] - PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with potential policy adjustments to stimulate growth[23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a recovery in CPI year-on-year growth and an expansion in the year-on-year decline of PPI, influenced by various seasonal and input factors [1][2][4]. CPI Analysis - In March, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the core CPI significantly rebounded to 0.5% [1][4]. - The main drag on the CPI was food prices, which fell by 1.4% month-on-month, contributing approximately 60% to the total CPI decline [6][4]. - Seasonal factors, such as warmer weather leading to increased fresh food supply, and a tourism off-season causing a drop in travel-related prices, were significant contributors to the CPI's month-on-month decline [1][6]. - Excluding food and energy, the core CPI showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, indicating a potential positive impact from consumption-boosting policies [1][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -2.5% in March, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with production materials experiencing a decline of -2.8% [9][10]. - Input factors, including falling international oil prices and weakened domestic demand, significantly influenced the PPI's month-on-month and year-on-year performance [2][10]. - Specific industries, such as coal mining and oil extraction, saw notable price declines, with coal mining prices dropping by 14.9% [9][10]. - Despite the overall decline, some high-tech industries showed price improvements, with educational and pharmaceutical equipment prices increasing by 7.6% and 6.1%, respectively [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of China's tariff retaliation against the U.S. on domestic inflation, particularly focusing on the effects on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][12]. Group 1: Import Structure from the U.S. - In 2024, China's total imports from the U.S. are projected to be $163.6 billion, accounting for 6.3% of total imports, a slight decrease from 6.4% in the previous year [4][13]. - The import structure consists of approximately 34% capital goods, 34% industrial supplies, and 31% consumer goods, with significant changes observed since 2018, particularly a decrease in automobile imports and an increase in food imports [4][13]. - An analysis of specific HS4 categories reveals two types of imports: those that are low in volume but highly dependent on the U.S. (e.g., high-protein sorghum) and those that are high in volume but have low dependency on the U.S. (e.g., crude oil) [4][13]. Group 2: Impact on CPI - Using the structural decomposition method, it is estimated that the 34% tariff could increase the CPI by approximately 0.09 percentage points if fully passed through [5][6][19]. - The cost transmission method suggests that the tariff could lead to a 2.2% increase in the import price index, which would translate to a CPI increase of about 0.19 percentage points [7][8][22]. - Historical experience indicates that similar tariffs in 2018 resulted in an average CPI increase of 0.11 percentage points, leading to an estimated increase of 0.28 percentage points for the current tariff scenario [10][25]. Group 3: Methodology for CPI Impact Assessment - The assessment of CPI impact involved three methods: structural decomposition, cost transmission, and historical experience, each yielding different estimates for the potential increase in CPI due to the tariffs [5][22][25]. - The structural decomposition method involved selecting significant import categories and matching them to CPI components, while the cost transmission method relied on historical correlations between import price indices and CPI [17][22]. - The historical experience method extrapolated from past tariff impacts, adjusting for the differences in the composition of goods affected by the tariffs [10][25].

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B slightly declined, indicating a weak trend[1] - Investment sector sentiment continues to rise, while the real estate sector shows a decline[1] - Seasonal comparison shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.14, underperforming historical averages[1] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential downward adjustment[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 11, 2025, is expected to rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to decline[1] - The deviation between predicted and actual ten-year government bond yields reached a historical high of 85 basis points, indicating significant divergence from the macroeconomic fundamentals[18] Price Tracking - Food and non-food prices both increased this week, with March CPI food prices expected to decline by approximately 1.5% month-on-month[2] - The overall CPI is projected to decrease by about 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year recovery to -0.1%[2] - March PPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of about 0.1%, remaining flat year-on-year at -2.2%[11]

Core Viewpoint - The economy is expected to achieve a "good start" in Q1, with GDP growth projected around 5.1%, exceeding the annual target growth rate [2][4]. Economic Outlook for Q1 - Q1 GDP growth is anticipated to be approximately 5.1%, slightly lower than the 5.4% in Q4 of the previous year [9]. - Industrial growth is expected to be strong at around 5.7%, driven by the "new economy," export incentives, and advancements in "hard technology" [4][9]. - Financial sector growth is projected to be below 6.5%, influenced by lower stock trading volumes and insurance premium income [4][9]. - Real estate growth is forecasted at 1%, down from 2% in Q4, primarily due to negative growth in new housing sales [4][9]. - Information technology, leasing, and business services are expected to maintain high growth rates [4][9]. Key Economic Data for March - CPI is expected to rebound from -0.7% to around -0.2%, while PPI is projected at -2.3% [5][12][13]. - Retail sales growth is anticipated to rise to 4.8%, driven by a surge in "trade-in" activities [5][20]. - Exports are projected to grow by 2.5%, while imports may decline by 5.5%, influenced by increased tariffs [5][15][16]. - Fixed asset investment growth is expected at 4.2%, with real estate investment declining by 10% [5][17]. - Industrial production growth is forecasted at 5.5%, supported by strong PMI indices [5][14]. Sector-Specific Insights - Retail sales are expected to benefit from accelerated "trade-in" programs, with significant increases in automotive and home appliance sales [20][21]. - Financial sector growth is projected to remain stable, with new social financing expected at 4.8 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase [22].

Economic Growth - The domestic economic growth momentum is steadily improving, with the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remaining positive and Index B continuing to rise[1] - Investment sector sentiment is improving, while consumer and real estate sectors show little change; investment performance is relatively strong[1] - Seasonal comparison indicates that Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, with this week's standardized increase at 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Asset Prices and Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; a mean reversion suggests that the ten-year government bond yield is expected to rise and the Shanghai Composite Index to fall in the upcoming week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of March 21, 2025, is 2.47%, while the actual yield is 1.87%, indicating a deviation of 61 basis points[18] - The predicted Shanghai Composite Index for the same week is 3,174.98, lower than the actual value of 3,411.22[19] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have both slightly decreased, with March CPI food expected to be -1.0%, non-food at -0.1%, and overall CPI at -0.3%[2] - The domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to -2.1%[2]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券⾸席经济学家 贾东旭 ⾼级宏观分析师 联系⼈： 企业端同样显现谨慎态度，1-2⽉中⻓贷合计同⽐少增6000亿元，PPI持续收缩制约投资意愿。 尽管1⽉ 单⽉企业中⻓贷呈现⾼增态势，但2⽉数据印证该趋势难以为继。PPI持续处于收缩区间压缩企业盈利空 间，叠加外部不确定性，企业资本开⽀保持观望姿态。 曙光初现：2⽉社融增速已获财政融资放量⽀撑，居⺠资产结构调整显露积极信号。 但化债资⾦到位滞 后（2⽉财政存款同⽐多增16374亿）与信贷需求疲软显⽰复苏基础尚不牢固。更加积极的财政政策或将 有效打破当前预期偏弱的循环格局。随着"加⼤⽀出强度、加快⽀出进度"的财政政策加速落地，预计社 融将保持稳中有升，财政资⾦直达实体有望改善微观主体现⾦流，进⽽推动信贷企稳。 常规跟踪：信贷同⽐少增，社融同⽐多增。 2⽉新增信贷10100亿，同⽐少增4400亿，边际拖累主要源于企业中⻓贷。 居⺠部⻔贷款下降3891亿， 同⽐少减2016亿，其中短贷减少2741亿，同⽐少减2127亿，中⻓贷减少1150亿， ...