Core Viewpoints - Short-term gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a high range, while the long-term focus is likely to continue moving upward due to various economic factors [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotai Futures notes that despite a decrease in initial jobless claims in the U.S., the economic outlook remains mixed, with expectations for a Fed rate cut in December providing some support for precious metal prices [1] - Nanhua Futures emphasizes that central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand will continue to push precious metal prices higher in the medium to long term, while short-term focus is on the Fed's rate cut expectations [2] - Wells Fargo highlights that declining interest rates, uncertainty, a weak dollar, and a pullback in cryptocurrencies are solid foundations for the next phase of gold price increases [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Guotai Futures identifies significant technical resistance for gold around $4,200 per ounce, with support levels at $4,000 and $3,900 [1][2] - Nanhua Futures also points out that the London gold market faces resistance at $4,250 per ounce and support at $4,000 per ounce, with silver showing similar patterns [2] - BCA Research suggests that gold is likely to remain within its current range due to the Fed's neutral stance, but anticipates a long-term upward trend by 2026 [4] Group 3: Economic Factors - Guotai Futures mentions that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and unsustainable U.S. debt levels will likely increase dollar credit risk, supporting gold prices in the long run [1] - Wells Fargo indicates that the diversification trend in the market will further elevate gold prices, especially as competitors like AI-driven stocks and cryptocurrencies show relative weakness [3] - BCA Research maintains a neutral outlook for gold in the short term but expects a favorable environment for gold as real interest rates decline [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic, and the high - tech industry continues to grow. The interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend rebounds slightly [3]. - The coal - coke market is adjusting at a high level due to concerns about supply resumption. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to remain stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%, and the long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak spot prices, increased supply, and weak demand [6]. - Natural rubber prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to strong cost support and weak demand [7]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak demand [8]. - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9]. - Hog prices may remain volatile as sufficient supply is offset by increased consumption [10]. Summary by Related Categories Stock - Bond Market - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, with the medium - term trend remaining optimistic. The high - tech industry continues to grow. Treasury bond interest rates are consolidating, and the market rebounds slightly [3] Black Industry - Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke market adjusts at a high level. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to be stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4] Gold Market - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%. The long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Log Market - Spot log prices are weak, supply is under pressure, demand is hard to sustain, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Rubber Market - Due to rainfall in the main production areas, cost support is strong. Demand is weak, and prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Soybean and Soybean Meal Market - US soybean export is weak, domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8] Oil and Chemical Market - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9] Hog Market - Hog supply is sufficient, consumption may increase, and prices may remain volatile [10]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 美联储内部分歧加剧，贵金属承压回落 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属有所承压，周线整体收跌。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美联储官员上 半周表态偏鹰，加上美联储10月会议纪要进一步暴露美联储内部对于12月降息的分歧日益 加剧，同时美国政府明确10月非农、CPI数据均不公布，这意味着美联储官员在年内最后 一次会议前可能将同时失去就业、通胀两项关键经济数据，不得不促使美联储谨慎控制降 息节奏。受此影响，美联储12月降息概率骤降，美股、比特币等资产全线下挫，流动性紧 缩下贵金属价格亦承压下挫。但随着恐慌指数回升，上周五晚间，美联储官员安抚市场， 称预计未来还会进一步降息，且有官员表态预计不久美联储将重新扩表，美联储降息预期 再度回升，流动性紧缩风险有所缓和，贵金属跌幅收窄。（2）俄罗斯央行开始抛售实物 黄金，一度对金价 ...

Report Summary of Gold and Silver Futures 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 910 - 970 yuan/gram, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the medium - to - long term [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. Short - term silver prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the medium - to - long term [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. The core driving factors for the range - bound movement last week were fluctuations in US Treasury yields, differences in Fed policy expectations, and repeated market sentiment [7]. - **Trend Logic**: In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 910 - 970 yuan/gram. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to gradually rise, supported by the continued trend of central bank gold purchases globally and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term shock consolidation last week, with the upper pressure level at 960 - 970 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 960 - 970 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX Gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][25]. Silver Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. The core driving factors for the wide - range shock movement last week were differences in Fed policy expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and the game of continuous destocking of spot inventory [33]. - **Trend Logic**: In the short term, silver prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to gradually rise, supported by the tight global silver supply - demand situation (low inventory + resilient industrial demand such as photovoltaics) and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [33]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Silver contract 2602 was in short - term shock consolidation last week, with the upper pressure level at 12,000 - 12,600 yuan/kg and the lower support level at 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [37]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Silver contract 2602 will continue to be in short - term shock consolidation, with the upper pressure level at 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg and the lower support level at 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It is recommended to wait and see [38]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX Silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [45][47][49].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic despite recent fluctuations, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $4084.59 per ounce, hitting a weekly low of $3997.78 before reaching a high of $4132.38, ultimately closing at $4064.80, reflecting a weekly range of $134.6 and a decline of $19.79 or 0.48% [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with expectations of a bullish trend in the longer term, despite short-term resistance [3][5]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has not indicated an end to the easing cycle, with many officials suggesting further policy loosening over time, which supports the case for future rate cuts [5]. - Recent strong employment data and mixed signals from Fed officials have tempered immediate rate cut expectations, but the overall sentiment remains that a rate cut in early next year is likely [5][9]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for a global rate cut cycle in 2026 are providing strong support for gold prices [5]. - The absence of employment data due to government shutdowns raises concerns about decision-making and unemployment rates, further underpinning gold's appeal as a safe haven [5]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices closed above the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for further gains, with the 10-week moving average serving as a key support level [7]. - The current price action suggests a consolidation within a triangular pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support levels at $3930 and $4045 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a period of fluctuation and adjustment in the short term due to mixed signals from the non-farm employment data and ongoing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On November 20, gold opened at $4077.91 per ounce, reached a high of $4109.92, and then fell to a low of $4038.65 before closing at $4077.22, with a daily fluctuation of $71.27 [3]. - The market anticipates mixed economic data releases, including the U.S. November PMI and consumer confidence index, which may continue to influence gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - The strong performance of the September non-farm employment data and the Federal Reserve officials' reluctance to rush into rate cuts have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut, but this could also be seen as a temporary alleviation of negative factors for gold prices [5]. - Long-term, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue easing policies, indicating that the rate cut cycle remains in play, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices are currently supported by the 10-week moving average, suggesting potential for future strength if this support holds [8]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support at $3930, guiding trading strategies [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4050 and $4030, while resistance levels are at $4105 and $4130 [10].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice urging member units to enhance market risk control due to increasing volatility in international gold prices, with gold jewelry prices in China surpassing 1300 RMB per gram [1] - As of November 19, the international spot gold price briefly exceeded 4100 USD per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 55%, making gold one of the best-performing asset classes this year [1] - Major Chinese gold jewelry brands have reported prices for 24K gold jewelry exceeding 1300 RMB per gram, with specific brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook pricing at 1307 RMB and 1305 RMB per gram respectively [1] Group 2 - Global central banks have shown increased enthusiasm for gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year rise [2] - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached approximately 2304.457 tons, marking a continuous increase for 12 months, although the recent increment was slightly lower than previous months [2] - Morgan Stanley suggests that many central banks, especially in emerging markets, will continue to increase their gold holdings despite potential reductions in buying intensity due to rising prices [3]

黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间: 2025-11- 1,060 1.040 1.020 1,000 980 960 2025-10-09 2025-10-27 2025-11- 2025-09-24 11:58 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1041.43 吨黄金 不过整体来看，黄金虽有所反弹，但在缺乏有力催化剂的情况下，美元坚挺对金价构成持续压制。投资者正等待美国经济数据来确认方向。 美国就业数据显示劳动力市场温和走弱。ADP数据显示，截至11月1日的四周内，美国私营部门就业岗位平均每周减少2500个，前期为减少11250个。此外， 截至10月18日当周，初请失业金人数升至23.2万人。数据公布后，投资者提高了对美联储12月降息的预期。 CME FedWatch工具显示，市场对12月降息50个基点的押注概率从当日早些时候的46%升至50%，但仍低于上周的67%。交易员正在等待即将发布的一系列美 国经济数据，特别是周四公布的9月非农就业报告。 EBC黄金属于持仓报告解读 .11 5G < 截至11月18日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by geopolitical and financial risks, with significant purchases by central banks and rising gold prices expected to continue [3] - As of November 18, 2025, the gold ETF fund has seen a 0.50% increase over the past two weeks, with a current price of 8.87 yuan and a trading volume of 6397.36 million yuan [2] - Gold prices have risen 55% year-to-date, influenced by economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and increased inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a significant increase from 21 tons in August, indicating a trend towards diversifying reserves [3] - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have corrected previous overly optimistic rate cut expectations, contributing to a price pullback in gold, although strong support is seen around the $4000 per ounce level [3] - The latest net inflow into the gold ETF fund is 3.65 billion yuan, with a total of 10 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.20% to $4045.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.25% to $50.05 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that precious metal prices may continue to be pressured by a strengthening dollar and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, but the long-term trend of global central bank gold purchases remains unchanged, providing support for precious metals [1] - Since 2022, the traditional negative correlation between gold prices and the real interest rates of the dollar has weakened, with the driving force behind rising gold prices being unprecedented gold purchasing by central banks, particularly in emerging markets [1] Group 2 - The natural supply constraints of gold, due to the scarcity of mineral resources and the lengthy exploration and extraction cycles, have resulted in a relatively rigid supply, with global gold production remaining between 3400-3700 tons since 2018 [4] - The marginal changes in demand have become the core driving force reshaping gold pricing logic, as gold and the dollar are in a competitive relationship, with central banks replacing dollars with gold when dollar credit declines [4] - From 2022 to 2024, the average annual net gold purchases by global central banks are expected to reach 1073 tons, accounting for 23% of total global gold demand, with Goldman Sachs predicting that gold prices could rise to $4900 by the end of 2026 [4]