Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been driven by concerns over potential tariffs on gold bars imported from Switzerland, which is a major refining center for gold [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Gold Market - A report indicated that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection classified 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a higher tariff code, raising fears of increased costs for imports from Switzerland [2][3] - The announcement led to a significant spike in gold futures prices, with COMEX gold reaching $3534.10 per ounce on August 8, before a subsequent clarification from the White House caused prices to drop [3][4] - The potential imposition of tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, as Switzerland plays a crucial role in refining and trading gold [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the White House's clarification that gold would not be subject to tariffs, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX futures falling over 2% to below $3400 per ounce [4][5] - The gold market has been in a consolidation phase, with London spot gold showing minimal fluctuations from May to July, indicating a period of adjustment [5][6] - Analysts suggest that short-term gold prices may oscillate between $3300 and $3500 per ounce, while medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The resolution of the tariff concerns is expected to stabilize market sentiment, allowing focus to shift back to fundamental factors such as the U.S. dollar's performance and global economic conditions [6] - Analysts believe that gold prices are likely to remain in an upward trend due to persistent demand for safe-haven assets amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6] - Predictions indicate that gold could reach a target price of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for further increases to $3800 per ounce if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the company, indicating strong growth potential in the gold mining sector [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global gold mining firm, formed by integrating all gold mines of Zijin Mining outside of China, and is one of the fastest-growing companies in the gold mining industry [1][9]. - As of the end of 2024, the company ranks ninth globally in gold reserves and eleventh in gold production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61.9% in net profit from 2022 to 2024 [1][9]. - The company operates seven controlling gold mines and one associate mine across eight countries on four continents, with a total gold resource of 1,614 tons and a reserve of 856 tons as of the end of 2024 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a strong historical growth trajectory, starting from the acquisition of the Tajikistan Jilau/Talco gold mine in 2007, and has since expanded its operations significantly [1][9]. - The company’s financial performance shows a robust increase in both volume and price, with a CAGR of 21.4% in gold production from 2022 to 2024 [9]. Resource Project Introduction - The company’s gold mines are distributed globally, with significant operations in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Colombia, Suriname, and Ghana [12][14]. - The average grade of the company’s gold resources is 1.4 g/t, with a total estimated gold metal content of 1,796.5 tons [16][17]. Financial Performance - The company’s total production in 2024 is projected to be 46.7 tons, with an annualized growth rate of 9.6% in gold production from 2022 to 2024 [18][19]. - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) has increased from $1,046 per ounce in 2022 to $1,458 per ounce in 2024, but the growth in costs has been well-controlled in 2024, with only a 0.6% increase year-on-year [20][21]. Core Competitiveness - The company’s competitive edge lies in its effective incentive mechanisms, a professional management team, strong acquisition capabilities, and operational efficiency [4][9]. - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base, particularly during periods of low metal prices, and has a strong exploration capability to optimize resource acquisition costs [4][9]. Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the gold market is poised for growth, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and increased gold purchases by central banks amid rising geopolitical risks and declining currency credit [4][9]. - The report highlights that global central banks have been significant buyers of gold, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicating a bullish outlook for gold prices [4][9].

Performance Overview - The gold industry has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, driven by high gold prices, with companies like Shandong Gold expecting a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 84.3% to 120.5% [1] - Western Gold anticipates a net profit of 130 million to 160 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96.35% to 141.66% [2] - Some companies, such as Zhaojin Gold, have successfully turned losses into profits, projecting a net profit of 34 million to 50 million yuan compared to a loss of 54.93 million yuan in the same period last year [2] Production and Cost Focus - Institutions are increasingly interested in future gold production, capacity expansion plans, and cost changes among gold companies [1][2] - Chifeng Gold aims to enhance gold production and has reported significant cost reductions in overseas projects, maintaining relatively low unit costs in the industry [3] - Hunan Gold has indicated that its comprehensive costs have risen due to deeper underground mining, lower ore grades, and increased labor costs [3] International Gold Price Trends - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been noted, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of 3,534.1 USD per ounce on August 8 [3] - The market's expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have contributed to the upward trend in gold prices [4] Global Gold Demand and Supply - In Q2 2025, global gold demand reached 1,249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by strong investment demand [4] - Despite a 14% decline in gold jewelry demand by volume, the value of global jewelry consumption increased [4] - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2, although the pace of purchases has slowed [4]

Core Insights - In June 2025, global central banks continued to favor gold, with a net increase of 22 tons in official gold reserves, marking a slight month-on-month rise for the third consecutive month [1] - In the first half of 2025, global central bank net gold purchases totaled 123 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The National Bank of Poland emerged as the largest net buyer of gold in 2025, acquiring 67 tons, followed by the Azerbaijan State Oil Fund and the National Bank of Kazakhstan [1] Central Bank Activities - Uzbekistan's central bank was the largest net buyer in June, while Kazakhstan's International Bank also made significant purchases [1] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore was the only net seller in June, selling 6 tons of gold [1] - As of the end of July, the People's Bank of China had gold reserves of 2,300.41 tons, with an increase of 1.86 tons, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation [1]

智通财经APP获悉，世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，截至7月底，中国人民银行黄金储备量2300.41吨，环比 增加1.86吨；连续九个月增持黄金。2025年6月，全球官方黄金储备净增22吨，已连续第三个月环比小幅上 升。2025年上半年全球央行净购金量达123吨，较2024年同期小幅下降。 2025年6月 全球官方黄金储备净增 已连续第三个月环比小幅上升 2025年上半年 全球央行净购金量达 较2024年同期小幅下降 150 100 50 fine 0 -50 -100 -150 购金总量 售金总量 净值 6月,乌兹别克斯坦央行是 本月最大的净买家* 吉尔吉斯斯坦 乌兹别克斯坦 哈萨克斯坦 + Q Inn +7 Int 捷克 +7.00 士直其 加纳 菲律宾 -7 III 新加坡 - I URLD 放眼全球 本月最大的净买家为乌兹别克斯坦央行 哈萨克斯坦国家银行购金规模同样显著 新加坡金融管理局(MAS)是唯一的净卖家 本月净售黄金6吨 全球央行购金总量略低于2024年的同期水平 波兰国家银行是 2025年迄今为止最大的净买家 净购金67吨 其次是阿塞拜疆国家石油基金和 哈萨克斯坦国家银行 0 20 80 -20 ...

Core Insights - International gold prices are rising due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar, with spot gold surpassing $3,380 per ounce and a weekly increase of nearly 3.5% [1] - Citibank has raised its target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce over the next three months, indicating strong long-term bullish sentiment [1] Monetary Policy and Dollar Trends - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is fueled by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, with a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a potential 50 basis point cut in October, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness and benefits gold [4] - Global central bank gold purchases increased by 34% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 240 tons, with China increasing its holdings for eight consecutive months, supporting long-term gold prices [4] Geopolitical and Risk Aversion Factors - Tensions in the Middle East, including missile launches from Iran towards Israel and Israel's full occupation of Gaza, have heightened risk aversion, pushing gold prices higher [5] - Trade tensions, such as Trump's tariffs on countries like Russia and India, have raised supply chain concerns, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [6] Technology and Consumer Demand - Emerging technologies like brain-computer interfaces and nanochips are increasing industrial demand for gold, with predictions of a potential increase in annual demand by thousands of tons in five years [7] - There is a divergence in consumer behavior, with traditional wedding demand remaining strong while some younger consumers are shifting towards "renting" gold jewelry; investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for price corrections [7] Market Dynamics - A psychological barrier exists where consumers tend to buy when prices are rising, leading to a 30%-40% drop in sales when prices fall, as they anticipate lower prices [8] - Merchants' promotional efforts, such as reducing processing fees, have limited impact since these fees only account for 1%-2% of the total price [9] Price Expectations - Current gold prices (approximately 780 RMB per gram) are significantly higher than the beginning of the year (around 620 RMB per gram), with consumer price expectations centered around 600-700 RMB per gram [10] Investment and Consumer Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious of technical pullback risks, particularly if prices fall below $3,200 per ounce, and to avoid high-leverage operations [11] - Long-term strategies include investing in gold ETFs or accumulating gold, with a recommended allocation of no more than 10% of household assets to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [12] - Consumers in need should focus on wholesale markets for gold priced by gram and avoid high processing fee jewelry [13] - Some consumers are taking advantage of high prices to sell back gold, with ordinary jewelry being discounted by about 10 RMB per gram and high-weight gold bars only 2-3 RMB per gram [14] Future Trends Forecast - Short-term factors driving gold prices include geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations, with a target of $3,500 per ounce [15] - Mid-term price corrections may occur if trade tensions ease, potentially pulling prices back to the $2,700-$3,000 range [16] - Long-term prospects suggest a high probability of gold prices exceeding $4,000 due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [16]

中国人民银行数据表明，央行二季度净购金6吨，上半年累计增储19吨，截至6月，连续8个月增持黄金。 不过，世界黄金协会发布最新的二季度全球黄金需求报告却显示，市场购金主力军的全球央行的购买量有所放 缓，全球央行在二季度净购金166吨，增储量同比减少了21%。 全球央行购金速度放缓除了当前金价处于较高位置之外，对于金价上涨的前景表明了并不统一的立场。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.26%，报收782.5元/克。 图片来源：曲合APP 前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，随着 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达成贸易协 议对市场情绪影响减弱对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降 息可能性，政治局势也使避险需求再次升温，未来美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将不断增加带来单反波 动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，金价连跌后快 速修复整体仍维持偏强震荡，多单在 3300 美元（770 元）上方继续持有。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF (518880) experienced a slight decline of 0.46% to 7.354 CNY, with a trading volume of 10.67 billion CNY, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1][2]. Fund Performance - Over the past 10 trading days, the gold ETF saw a net outflow of 23.17 billion CNY, while the last 5 days recorded a net outflow of 17.42 billion CNY, followed by a net inflow of 5.13 billion CNY in the last 2 days [1]. - As of July 28, 2025, the circulating scale of the gold ETF reached 576.41 billion CNY [1]. Market Analysis - Long-term outlook remains bullish for precious metals due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and persistent supply-demand gaps in silver, despite short-term bearish pressures from easing risk aversion as global trade negotiations progress [2]. - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Senate and the potential increase in fiscal deficit rates are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [2]. Product Overview - The Huaan Gold ETF, established on July 18, 2013, is one of the earliest gold ETFs in China, benchmarked against domestic gold spot price returns, and has established a leading position in terms of scale and performance [3]. - Investors are advised to consider phased investment or dollar-cost averaging strategies when participating in the Huaan Gold ETF (518880) and its linked funds [3].

基本面： 周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅低开后守住此前跌幅表现清淡，盘中最低测试至3319.12美元/盎司，目前暂交投于3333美元附近。因美国和欧洲 达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价仍受到部分逢低买盘支撑，因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%，为 连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 上周，美元指数从逾两周低点反弹，显著推高了黄金对海外买家的成本。美元的走强不仅源于美国经济数据的稳健表现，还得益于市场对美欧贸易谈判乐观 情绪的消化。尽管短期内受到经济数据和贸易协议预期的支撑，美元在过去一周仍录得一个月来最大单周跌幅。美国股市标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数上周 五创下收盘纪录新高，受助于对美国可能很快与欧盟达成贸易协议的乐观情绪。欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩于周日在苏格兰与美国总统特朗普会晤。此前，欧 盟官员和外交官表示，美欧预计周末将达成一项框架贸易协议。特朗普此前表示，与欧盟达成贸易协议的可能性为"50%"。 当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表示，欧盟将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures experienced fluctuations but maintained above the $3400 mark, indicating a recovery in market sentiment amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 21, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.63%, reaching $3410 per ounce, marking a five-week high [1]. - On July 22, gold futures opened at $3410.7 per ounce, peaked at $3416.3, and then fell slightly to $3403.1, a decrease of 0.1% [1][2]. - The average price recorded was $3407.0, with a slight decline of $3.4 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion and a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline [3]. - Analysts suggest that four key factors will influence whether gold can surpass $3500: central bank purchasing, geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and dollar performance [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential fundamental weakness in the market due to declining investment demand thereafter [4].