Core Viewpoint - The announcement by U.S. President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil starting August 1 has raised significant concerns across various sectors in Brazil, particularly in the fishing and aquaculture industries [1][3]. Industry Impact - The Brazilian aquaculture and fishing industry, represented by the National Aquaculture and Fisheries Committee, is particularly vulnerable as approximately 70% of its lobster exports are directed to the U.S. market. The proposed tariff is expected to severely disrupt the entire fishing and aquaculture supply chain [3][5]. - The imposition of the tariff will likely lead to a reduction in orders and price pressures for Brazilian exporters, as U.S. importers are expected to pass the tariff costs onto Brazilian producers, who are already facing increased raw material and shipping costs [5][7]. Economic Consequences - Over one million people in Brazil are engaged in seafood farming, fishing, and related export activities. The tariff could result in significant economic challenges, including potential production halts as some exporters are already considering ceasing operations due to declining profits [5][7]. - A specific example highlighted is the price drop for tilapia, where the selling price fell from 40 Brazilian Reais (approximately 52 RMB) per kilogram to 26 Brazilian Reais (approximately 34 RMB), indicating a substantial loss in profitability for producers [7]. Call for Support - The industry is urging the Brazilian government to provide special credit support to help navigate the challenges posed by the tariffs, with concerns that the negative impacts will persist for an extended period [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, breaking through the 3400 mark before a sharp decline of 60 USD, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][9]. Price Movements - Gold reached a new high at 3438 before experiencing a rapid drop [3]. - The price fell below 3380, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Current support levels are being tested at 3370, with further potential decline towards 3345 [5][9]. - After a period of adjustment, there is a potential upward movement towards 3400 [6]. - Resistance levels are identified at 3433, with ongoing bearish pressure below 3400 [7][8]. Market Influences - Recent agreements between the US and Japan have contributed to a positive outlook for global trade, leading to a decrease in gold prices [10]. - Ongoing negotiations between the US and Europe are also seen as a factor in reducing market tensions, further impacting gold prices [11]. - Upcoming ECB decisions and US economic data releases are expected to influence market sentiment and gold prices [12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points for gold trading, emphasizing the importance of accuracy in trading decisions [12]. - Risk management and position sizing are crucial for maximizing profit opportunities while minimizing risk [12]. - Following experienced traders is suggested as a strategy for achieving higher accuracy in trading [12].

Core Insights - The internal assessment by the Vietnamese government indicates that if the high tariffs proposed by President Trump are implemented, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. could decrease by up to one-third [1] - The report predicts that a tariff rate of 20%-40% could lead to a reduction in export revenue of up to $37 billion, significantly impacting key industries such as electronics, machinery, apparel, footwear, and furniture [1] - The technology sector is expected to be the hardest hit, with an estimated export decline of around $15 billion, posing a direct risk to the sustainability of the electronic supply chain [1] - In the previous year, Vietnam's total exports to the U.S. amounted to approximately $120 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts warn that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone economy may be more severe than generally expected, with a potential slowdown in growth anticipated in the coming quarters [1][2][4]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - The "export rush" effect from tariffs has positively contributed approximately 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the first half of the year, but this effect is expected to reverse in the second half, leading to a similar level of drag on growth [1][4][6]. - Under a baseline scenario of 20% tariffs, Eurozone growth could cumulatively decrease by 1 percentage point over six quarters, while a 30% tariff could lead to a mild recession [2][9]. GDP and Inflation Forecasts - Citigroup has slightly downgraded its inflation forecast for the Eurozone to 1.5% for 2026, down from an average of 2.0% in 2025, and expects inflation to be slightly below the 2% target in 2027 [2]. - The report outlines GDP growth forecasts, indicating a slowdown to near 0% growth in the next three quarters, primarily due to weak exports and investment [1][14]. Export and Investment Dynamics - The report highlights that weak export performance threatens investment prospects, with a 1 percentage point change in export growth leading to a 0.7 percentage point change in corporate investment over the following two quarters [10]. - Despite strong investment performance in the first quarter, the outlook for exports remains weak, which is expected to negatively impact investment decisions and hiring in the coming months [12][14]. Domestic Demand and Consumer Confidence - Private consumption in the Eurozone is expected to recover, supported by real income growth and high savings rates, but this may not fully offset the negative impacts of tariffs [13][14]. - Recent declines in consumer confidence and reduced hiring intentions among businesses raise concerns about the overall domestic demand's ability to prevent a slowdown in growth [14].

Group 1 - South Korea's automobile exports to the U.S. have declined for four consecutive months due to a 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. starting in April [1][2] - In June, South Korea's automobile exports to the U.S. amounted to $2.69 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, while total automobile exports decreased by 8.8% to 244,400 units [2] - Despite the decline in U.S. exports, South Korean automakers have successfully expanded into the Eurasian market, leading to an overall increase in automobile exports by 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a record $6.34 billion for June [2] Group 2 - In the first 20 days of July, South Korea's passenger car exports to the U.S. increased by 3.9%, indicating some resilience in high-value models, but the cumulative export value for the first half of the year was $15.85 billion, a significant drop of 16.5% [3] - The automotive parts export sector is facing severe challenges, with some small and medium-sized enterprises incurring additional costs of millions of dollars due to high tariffs [3] - The export share of South Korean complete vehicles and parts to the U.S. was 49.1% and 36.5% respectively last year, and prolonged high tariffs could pressure profitability and threaten the supply chain of smaller parts manufacturers [3] Group 3 - Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. saw a volume increase of 3.4% in June, but the export value dropped by 26.7%, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3][4] - The average vehicle export price from Japan to the U.S. fell by 29.1% year-on-year, with a significant price drop of 18.2% from March to June [4] - If Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. decrease by 10% in the fiscal year 2025, the industry's profit could decline by 2.4%, and a 10% drop in export prices could lead to a 12.9% profit decrease [4]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened higher with the Dow Jones up 0.19%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.22% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Waterdrop, NIO, and New Oxygen rising over 3%, while Kingsoft Cloud fell over 3% [1] Global Economic News - A warning from business organizations indicates that US tariffs could lead to a 0.8% loss in Italy's GDP by 2027 if a 30% tariff on EU goods is implemented [2] Corporate News - BlackRock analysts noted that European corporate earnings have already factored in tariff risks, suggesting potential for market upside as long as trade shocks are avoided [3] - JD.com announced significant investments in three leading companies in the intelligent robotics sector, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing retail, logistics, and service collaboration [4] - Lexin announced a $60 million stock repurchase plan, with the CEO planning to personally invest up to $10 million in company shares, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [5] - Huami Technology experienced a stock price surge of 395.86% in July, driven by positive revenue growth signals for Q2 2025, marking a significant recovery after three years of stagnation [6]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo criticizes Powell for maintaining high interest rates for too long, which has significant economic implications [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The prolonged high interest rates are estimated to cost the U.S. economy $700 billion annually [1] - Mortgage loan rates are currently 2 percentage points above reasonable levels, affecting housing affordability [1] Group 2: Currency and Tariffs - The depreciation of the dollar has somewhat mitigated the impact of tariffs [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 78,000 yuan and then rebounded. The position volume decreased to below 500,000 contracts, the lowest since March this year, indicating a decrease in capital attention. Due to the uncertainty of copper prices under tariff impacts, short - term funds may flow out, reducing short - term volatility. After the market digests the tariff negatives, copper prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply on Monday and then stabilized around 20,400 yuan. The position volume also decreased rapidly on Monday, with obvious capital outflows. The decline was due to inventory accumulation and concerns about US tariffs. With a weak industrial situation and strong macro - support, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spreads [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the main contract price of nickel fluctuated above 120,000 yuan. With positive US economic data and positive macro - factors, non - ferrous and black sectors rose. However, the long - term fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the increasing port inventory weakens the support for nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 120,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%, and imported 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%, and the cumulative import was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, the import of copper ore concentrates was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the cumulative import from January to June was 14.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. BHP's copper production in the fourth quarter was 516,200 tons, with an expected annual production of 1.8 - 2 million tons [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and imported 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1%. The export of alumina was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The import of bauxite and concentrates was 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.2% [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 18, for the Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract of refined nickel, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 122,480 yuan/ton, Russian nickel was 120,980 yuan/ton, Norwegian nickel was 124,030 yuan/ton, and nickel beans were 119,530 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, copper month - spread, and SHFE inventory and inventory warrants [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue its pressured operation, with short - term dollar index rebound being a negative factor for gold prices. Copper is expected to stabilize with short - term strength, supported by downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term view**: Downward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Weakly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Sideways operation [1] - **Core logic**: Overnight gold price fluctuations intensified. The New York gold initially dropped to around $3330, then quickly rose to around $3380, followed by a pull - back. The dollar index showed a dip - rebound. Market speculation about Trump potentially firing Powell and subsequent denial led to market volatility. The short - term rebound of the dollar index is negative for gold prices [3]. Copper - **Short - term view**: Upward [1] - **Mid - term view**: Sideways [1] - **Intraday view**: Strongly sideways [1] - **Reference view**: Short - term strength [1] - **Core logic**: Since this week, copper prices have been oscillating around 78,000 yuan. The decline in Shanghai copper positions to below 500,000 contracts indicates reduced capital attention. Tariff impacts increase price uncertainty, causing short - term capital outflows. Downstream replenishment and narrowing of refined - scrap spreads support copper prices, and the narrowing LME import loss reflects an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [5].

Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.4%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in the previous month[5] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.8%[2] Market Expectations - Market expectations for June CPI were 2.64% year-on-year and 0.25% month-on-month, which were closely met[5] - Core CPI expectations were 2.95% year-on-year and 0.23% month-on-month, also aligning with actual results[2] Contributing Factors - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and energy prices[5] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, reflecting volatility due to geopolitical factors[5] Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49%, indicating a halt in the continuous decline observed earlier this year[6] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, suggesting a stable labor market despite some weakness in service sector employment[6] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has improved significantly, with the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan dropping by 1.6 percentage points to 5%[2] - The five-year inflation expectation also decreased to 4%, indicating reduced concerns about inflation among consumers[2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the inflationary impact of tariffs will become more pronounced in the coming months as businesses deplete their inventories[7] - Risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions remain high, with potential for renewed price increases if trade conditions worsen[7]