瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 螺纹钢市场周报 需求下滑&炉料反弹 螺纹期价区间整理 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 1. 价格及价差：截至1月30日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3128（-14），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3280（-30）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量增加。199.83（+0.28），同比（+22.16）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需176.4（-9.12），（同比+168.65）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库双增。螺纹钢总库存475.53（+23.43），（同比-177.6）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率39.39%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少9.53个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75% ...

这些言论加剧了特朗普对鲍威尔长期的攻击模式。特朗普在第一任期内任命了鲍威尔，但此前曾称其为"主要输家"和"笨蛋"。 鲍威尔在利率决议公布后不久便会见了记者。这是自司法部就其关于美联储大楼翻新工程的参议院证词启动刑事调查以来，他举行的首次新闻发 布会。他拒绝就该调查发表评论，而是利用此次露面机会捍卫央行的独立性，并警告不要对货币政策进行政治干预。他表示，允许民选官员影响 利率决定将破坏其信誉，而这种信誉"很难恢复"。 在美联储选择维持利率不变后，总统特朗普对美联储主席发起了新一轮攻击，此举立即招致了白宫方面的强烈反对。 美联储在周三以10比2的投票结果决定，将其基准贷款利率维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。这一决定迅速招致了总统的批评。 特朗普在社交平台上发帖，指责这位央行行长行动过于迟缓。他写道："杰罗姆'为时已晚'·鲍威尔再次拒绝降低利率，尽管他完全没有理由让利率 保持如此高位。"他敦促美联储"大幅降低利率，现在就行动！" 摩根士丹利财富管理公司的首席经济策略师艾伦·曾特纳表示，"美联储的调子依然如故"。她补充说，尽管降息最终可能会到来，但"投资者将不得 不保持耐心"。 美联储表示，其决定反映了美国经济的持续 ...

美联储主席人选宣布在即，美联储前理事沃什（Kevin Warsh）获提名概率超8成，另有消息称特朗普政府正筹备提名沃什出任主席，德银预测其将开 启"降息缩表"时代。 30日，据央视新闻，当地时间29日，据一位知情人士透露，前美联储理事凯文·沃什当天前往白宫，与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普会面。另一位知情人士透 露，这位前美联储理事给特朗普留下了深刻印象，特朗普正在筛选人选，以接替将于5月卸任的美联储现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。 当天稍早前，美国总统特朗普表示，计划于当地时间30日上午（北京时间今晚）公布下一任美联储主席的人选。 预测市场Polymarket最新显示，沃什被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至95%。 由于沃什长期以偏鹰派立场著称，这一预期迅速推升美元和美债收益率，并对商品价格形成压制。内外盘期货普遍下行，贵金属成为跌幅最为集中的品 种。 这一任命将结束特朗普与鲍威尔长达数年的紧张关系。特朗普在首个任期内提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席，但随后多次批评美联储未能更快降息。 美联储本周维持基准利率不变，在去年连续三次降息后按下暂停键。 若沃什获提名，降息与缩表或并行 沃什横跨学术界、监管机构和投资界的经历，使他对金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a strong fluctuation against major currencies, with the USD/CAD exchange rate hitting a 15-month low, influenced by the Bank of Canada's monetary policy and external factors such as oil prices and trade relations [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the CAD has shown strength against major currencies, with the USD/CAD rate reported at 1.3504, reflecting a slight daily increase of 0.12% [1] - The CAD has stabilized around 0.7380 against the USD, continuing its recent rebound trend [1] - The exchange rate against the Chinese yuan has also rebounded, with 100 CAD equating to 512.29 CNY, alleviating earlier depreciation pressures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, and indicated that this rate is suitable for achieving a 2% inflation target while supporting economic recovery [1] - The Bank of Canada has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, with projections of 1.1% and 1.5% growth for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a gradual but positive recovery [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve is strengthening the CAD's position, with market expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed this year [2] - The narrowing interest rate differential between Canada and the U.S. is reducing the attractiveness of the USD, indirectly supporting the CAD's strength [2] Group 4: Oil Price Correlation - The CAD, being a commodity currency, has a positive correlation of approximately 0.7 with international oil prices, which are currently rebounding due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3] - Recent increases in WTI crude oil prices, which surged by 4% to $65.90 per barrel, are expected to enhance Canadian crude oil export prospects, providing robust support for the CAD [3] Group 5: Economic Fundamentals - Despite the CAD's recent strength, underlying economic weaknesses limit its appreciation potential, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% in December 2025, the highest since 2021 [3] - Declining consumer confidence and low corporate investment continue to highlight insufficient domestic demand, posing challenges for sustained CAD strength [3] Group 6: Trade Pressures - Increased average tariffs from the U.S. on Canadian goods, now at 5.9%, are leading to a decline in Canadian exports and reduced corporate investment intentions [4] - The upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in summer 2026 could significantly impact Canadian exports if terms change, further increasing volatility risks for the CAD [4] Group 7: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for USD/CAD remains bearish, with the pair consolidating around 1.3534 after breaking below the key 1.3700 level [4] - Short-term support levels are focused on 1.3534 and the 1.3600-1.3620 range, while resistance is seen at 1.3760-1.3780 [4]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce his nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair, which will influence the central bank's policy direction for the next four years, as current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2023 [1]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Trump indicated that the nominee is "well-respected and known in the financial community," and that the choice will not be surprising, coming from a list of candidates [1]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has led the selection process and submitted four final candidates: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, and White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [1]. Group 2: Market Predictions - The probability of Kevin Warsh being nominated as the new Fed Chair has surged to 79% according to the prediction market Polymarket [2]. Group 3: Candidate Profiles - Rick Rieder has made a strong impression on Trump, advocating for lower interest rates, which aligns with the administration's focus on affordability in the housing market [4]. - The new Fed Chair's selection will conclude the ongoing tension between Trump and Powell, as Trump has criticized Powell for not lowering rates quickly enough during his first term [5]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump's ongoing commentary suggests a keen interest in monetary policy, emphasizing that "interest rates are still declining," which indicates the potential impact of the new Chair on future interest rate policies and the balance between addressing inflation and supporting economic growth [5].

The Fed last paused interest rates in September 2023, holding the funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50% after a rapid tightening cycle aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflation.After the December rate cut, Powell said that the lowering of rates brought monetary policy “within a broad range of neutral.”The two goals often conflict, operate on different timelines and are influenced by unpredictable global events.The Fed’s dual congressional mandate requires it to balance inflation and job growth via interest rates.The ...

国际金价在美联储维持利率政策的背景下逆势突破5500美元，市场用脚投票，揭示了对未来经济不确定 性的深层担忧。 1月底，全球金融市场见证了一场历史性的背离：美联储将联邦基金利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的区间， 而国际金价却在这一政策背景下逆势突破每盎司5500美元。这一矛盾现象揭示了当下全球经济的深层次 困境——避险需求已压倒传统利率逻辑，成为主导黄金市场的核心力量。 反常飙升 1月29日早间，黄金市场呈现出一幅与传统金融理论背道而驰的画面。在美联储明确维持3.5%至3.75% 利率区间的同时，国际黄金期货和现货价格却双双突破每盎司5500美元大关，甚至一度逼近5600美元。 更令人深思的是，金价在创下历史新高后迅速回落超过100美元，这种剧烈波动恰恰反映了市场在高利 率环境与避险需求之间的艰难抉择。 通常情况下，美联储维持高利率政策会增加持有黄金的机会成本，抑制金价上涨。但此次市场似乎完全 无视这一传统逻辑，将关注点完全放在了地缘政治风险和全球经济不确定性上。 多重力量的重新评估 美联储的高利率政策在此次黄金上涨中扮演了一个复杂角色。表面上看，维持利率不变应该对黄金构成 压力；但实际上，这一政策决策背后隐 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【白银期货最新行情】 | 1月29日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 30891 | 8.51% | 759570 | 281218 | 特朗普警告对伊朗下一次袭击将更严重，称后者时间不多了。伊朗常驻联合国代表团回应称，伊方愿在 相互尊重基础上与美对话。 数据显示，1月29日上海白银现货价格报价31100元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（30891元/千克）升水 209元/千克。 【机构观点】 美联储1月议息会议按下暂停键，维持利率在3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支持降息25个基点；鲍威尔重 申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话，并表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明 可以放松政策，建议继任者远离政治。 美联储停止降息，鲍威尔表示不会置评美元走势，金价拉动银价走高，银价受监管压力暂缓涨势。随着 3月COMEX主要交割月来临，逼仓言论再度来袭，需谨慎分辨市场消息。沪银溢价大幅收敛至3700元/ 克，国内情绪再升温。国内外交易所全面上调保 ...

美联储1月议息会议按下暂停键，维持利率在3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支持降息25个基点；鲍威尔重 申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话，并表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明 可以放松政策。 美财长：总统可能在一周左右公布美联储主席人选。另外，特朗普表达不担忧美元走弱后，他表示，美 国长期奉行强势美元政策，绝对没有干预日元。 川普警告对伊朗下一次袭击将更严重，称后者时间不多了。伊朗回应称，伊方愿在相互尊重基础上与美 对话。 因对伊朗局势的担忧升温，油价周三升至去年9月底以来最高。WTI原油震荡上行，重回63美元上方， 最终收涨1.47%，报63.57美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨1.33%，报67.42美元/桶。 1月29日 资讯分享 周三，现货黄金本月以来的迅猛涨势毫无放缓迹象，周三首次突破5400美元/盎司，日内暴涨220美元， 创单日涨幅之最，最终收涨4.6%，报5417.44美元/盎司；现货白银随黄金上行，最终收涨3.97%，报 116.77美元/盎司。 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 29 日 铂：跟随抬升 钯：警惕补涨 产 业 服 务 研 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 694. 80 | | -1.54% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 670. 45 | | -2.22% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2705. 10 | | 2. 27% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2704. 10 | | 2. 29% | | | | 铝金期货2606 | 504. 00 | | -3.63% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 459.00 | | -4.77% | | | | 纽约包主连(前日) | 2.095. 50 | | 7. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 2.059.50 | | 6.60% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | ...