Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US dollar (USD), driven by higher-than-expected inflation data, with the latest trading around 0.6483 [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, surpassing the previous level of 3.5% and market expectations of 3.6% [1][3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% in December, as current inflation remains above the target range of 2-3% [3]. - The RBA's November meeting minutes indicate a preference for keeping interest rates stable, with only a 6% probability of a rate cut to 3.35% in December according to interest rate futures [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The strengthening of the AUD is contrasted by a weakening USD, with the US Dollar Index stabilizing around 99.80 after a mild decline [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen significantly, with over 84% probability for a 25 basis point cut, up from 50% a week prior [3]. - Supporting factors for this expectation include a drop in the US core PPI, slowing retail sales growth, and a significant decline in the consumer confidence index to 88.7 [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD currency pair is currently in a rectangular consolidation range, with effective support around 0.6420 and resistance at the 9-day moving average of 0.6479 [4]. - A successful breakout above the 0.6479 level could lead the AUD to challenge the psychological level of 0.6500, with stronger resistance anticipated around 0.6630 [4].

Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their median forecast for U.S. economic growth next year to 2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a significant rise from 1.3% six months ago [4] - The main drivers of economic growth are expected to be personal consumption and business investment, although nearly all economists anticipate that current tariff policies will drag down economic growth by at least 0.25 percentage points [4] Employment Market - The U.S. job market is projected to add approximately 64,000 jobs per month, which is slightly above the current year's end level but still far below recent norms [7] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the beginning of next year and remain within this range throughout the year [7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is expected to decline to 2.9% by the end of this year and only slightly decrease to 2.6% next year, with new import tariffs contributing an estimated 0.25 to 0.7 percentage points to inflation [7] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and an additional 50 basis points throughout next year, gradually moving towards a neutral rate [7] Trade Policy Impact - Trade policies are seen as a key variable that could disrupt growth prospects, potentially increasing costs and compressing corporate profit margins while also limiting consumer spending [10] - Market participants are advised to closely monitor upcoming data releases to verify whether these economic forecasts align with actual economic performance [10]

根据近期公开表态，负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会成员在是否调整利率的问题上几乎势均力敌。今年拥有投票权的12位官员中，已有5位倾向于在12 月维持利率不变，而其他成员则表现出不同的倾向。例如，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近期释放了支持降息的信号，而美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼等人则在之前的会 议中对维持利率的决定提出异议。 随着12月政策会议临近，美联储内部关于利率政策的讨论愈发激烈，官员们对未来行动的意见呈现明显分化。与此同时，主席鲍威尔保持沉默，令市场对政 策走向的判断更加扑朔迷离。 官员立场分化，政策方向难达共识 这种分歧并非偶然。自今年6月以来，美联储尚未达成过一次全员一致的投票结果。分析认为，这种局面反映了政策制定者在平衡劳动力市场支持与通胀控 制两大目标时的艰难抉择。此外，此前政府停摆导致多项关键经济数据发布延迟，也削弱了官员们依据共同信息基础达成共识的能力。 从历史角度看，美联储内部出现意见分歧并不罕见。在1980年代为遏制高通胀而大幅加息，以及1990年代对通胀持续担忧的时期，委员会内部都曾出现较多 的异议投票。一些经济学家指出，当前的分歧可能具有积极意义。前美联储经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆认为，鲍威尔保持沉默 ...

US equities advanced on Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested the central bank may have room to cut interest rates again in December. The comments helped the stocks set onto a path to break a two-day slide driven by weakness in artificial intelligence stocks and renewed rate-policy uncertainty. ...

Is there real progress in this economy right now. I know we can look at these numbers and find some modicum of stability, but is a real progress, real growth. Well, this is also a very important question remain, because if we think about what was the reason why we had a slowdown over the summer, it was likely because of the turmoil that came after Liberation Day.But Immigration Day is now eight, nine months ago, and things are gradually getting better on the trade for at least us. More clarity. And we've, o ...

相较于9月会议的预测，10月的预测显示截至2028年的实际GDP增长总体小幅增强，这主要反映了预期 潜在产出增长的提升以及金融条件预计将提供更大支撑。2025年后，随着关税上升带来的拖累减弱， GDP增长预计将保持高于潜在水平的态势直至2028年，金融条件将转变为支出的顺风因素。因此，失业 率预计在今年之后逐步下降，随后稳定在略低于工作人员对自然失业率估计值的水平。通胀预测与为9 月会议准备的预测基本相似，预计关税上调将在2025年和2026年对通胀构成上行压力。此后，通胀预计 将回归此前的反通胀趋势。工作人员继续认为预测面临的高度不确定性，理由包括劳动力市场降温、通 胀仍处高位、政府政策变化及其对经济影响的不确定性加剧，以及政府停摆导致的数据获取受限。 美联储最新政策会议纪要显示，尽管多位官员对劳动力市场疲软表示担忧，但认为在年内剩余时间维持 利率稳定可能是适宜之举。 咨询公司RSM首席经济学家JosephBrusuelas解读称，这份纪要"清晰揭示了鹰鸽两派的分歧，文本暗示 鹰派略占上风，他们围绕通胀固化风险提出了具有说服力的论据"。自10月会议以来，经济背景已发生 变化：美国政府停摆结束，就业与通胀等关 ...

盘前市场动向 1. 11月19日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.25%，标普500指数期货涨0.45%，纳指期货涨 0.53%。 | = US 30 | 46,205.80 | 46,216.30 | 45,992.00 | +114.10 | +0.25% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,646.90 | 6,648.60 | 6,594.60 | +29.50 | +0.45% | | = US Tech 100 | 24,633.90 | 24,641.30 | 24,366.90 | +130.80 | +0.53% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.40%，英国富时100指数涨0.15%，法国CAC40指数涨0.05%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.18%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,264.66 | 23,264.66 | 23,105.52 | +91.61 | +0.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 英国富时100 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price has fallen below $90,000, continuing a downward trend for nearly a month, with the cryptocurrency market losing over $1 trillion in value during this period due to high tech stock valuations and uncertainty regarding U.S. interest rates [1][6]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price dropped nearly 2.5% to $89,385, marking its first fall below the $90,000 threshold since April [1]. - The cryptocurrency market has seen a total market cap decline of approximately 25% since reaching a peak on October 6, equating to a loss of about $1.2 trillion [5]. - In the past 24 hours, over 180,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations exceeding $1 billion [3][4]. Historical Context - Bitcoin's performance in 2025 has erased all gains made earlier in the year, with a year-to-date decline of about 4% [4][5]. - The historical returns of Bitcoin from 2010 to 2025 show significant volatility, with notable declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022, alongside substantial gains in other years [5]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts indicate that Bitcoin's recent downturn is influenced by rising concerns over interest rate policies and high valuations in speculative markets [6]. - The market's skepticism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has intensified, impacting both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market [6]. - The aftermath of the October 10 "liquidation disaster," which saw over $19 billion in forced liquidations, continues to affect market sentiment [7]. Correlation with Tech Stocks - There is a notable increase in the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks, with a 30-day correlation coefficient of approximately 0.80, the highest since 2022 [8]. - The performance of Bitcoin is increasingly resembling that of leveraged tech stocks, with some options traders betting on further declines [10].

来源：江南都市报 11月18日，比特币价格七个月来首次跌破9万美元关口。 持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 此次逆转行情出现之际，正值经济逆风加剧，包括市场对利率政策再度产生担忧，以及投机市场估值过高。期权交易员押注比特币将进一步下跌，近期对 8.5万美元和8万美元行权价的看跌期权保护需求占据主导。 ...

11月18日，比特币跌破9万美元，持续一个月的下跌态势已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。此次逆 转行情出现之际，正值经济逆风加剧，包括市场对利率政策再度产生担忧，以及投机市场估值过高。期 权交易员押注比特币将进一步下跌，近期对8.5万美元和8万美元行权价的看跌期权保护需求占据主导。 ...