Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Bullish with Volatility [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Volatile [2] - Glass: Bullish with Volatility [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - SSE 50 Index: Bullish [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - Year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - Year Treasury Bond: Downward [3] - Gold: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Silver: Bullish with Volatility [3] - Pulp: Consolidating [4] - Logs: Range - bound Volatility [4] - Soybean Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Palm Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish with Volatility [4] - Soybean Meal: Volatile [4] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile [4] - No. 2 Soybeans: Volatile [4] - No. 1 Soybeans: Bearish with Volatility [4] - Live Pigs: Bearish with Volatility [6] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: Hold for Observation [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Hold for Observation [8] - PR: Hold for Observation [8] - PF: Bullish with Volatility [8] Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations. However, Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut, providing support for commodities [2] - The expected blast furnace production restrictions in China have been temporarily disproven, so the impact on iron ore demand is minimal. The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2] - Affected by a coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - cut - throat competition, coking coal and coke prices rose sharply overnight. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and coal prices are supported in the short term [2] - The steel market's supply - demand contradiction has intensified. With the approaching traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar remains weak, and the futures price is looking for support after a significant adjustment [2] - The glass market's supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and the real demand needs to be further observed [2] - The stock index market has seen capital inflows into semiconductor, computer hardware, and financial sectors, while capital has flowed out of aviation and gas sectors. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - The bond market has shown weak trends due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The current logic driving the gold price increase remains valid, and gold is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - The log market has relatively small supply pressure and increasing demand for stocking up by processing plants. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - The oil market has positive demand prospects. The demand for biofuels is increasing, and the inventory of palm oil is lower than expected. The oil market is expected to be bullish with volatility [4] - The meal market is affected by factors such as the adjustment of soybean planting area, weather conditions, and import policies. The market is expected to be volatile [4] - The live pig market has an increasing supply and weak consumption demand due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6] - The natural rubber market has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, but the gap is narrowing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - The PX market is affected by the uncertainty of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the reduction of old production capacity in South Korea. The price is relatively strong [8] - The PTA market's supply - demand situation has improved, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [8] - The MEG market has increasing supply pressure, but low inventory supports the price [8] - The PR and PF markets have relatively stable short - term supply - demand structures, but the market's expectations for future demand are cautious [8] Summaries by Categories Metals - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly on a环比 basis, and the arrival volume has also rebounded. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure under high port clearance. The terminal demand is weak, but steel mills have little motivation to cut production actively. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by a coal mine accident and anti - cut - throat competition, the prices rose sharply overnight. The recovery of coal mines in production areas is slow, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates remain high. The price is expected to be bullish with volatility [2] - **Rebar and Coiled Steel**: The steel mill's production restrictions in Tangshan are less than expected. The overall demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction has intensified. The price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and its de - fiat currency attribute is becoming more prominent. The market's risk - aversion demand still exists, and the price is expected to be bullish with volatility [3] Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and promoting sports consumption. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][3] - **Bonds**: The bond market trends are weak due to market interest rate fluctuations. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [3] Industrial Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate [4] - **Logs**: The supply pressure is relatively small, and the demand for stocking up by processing plants is increasing. The price is expected to move within a range [4] - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap in the natural rubber market is narrowing. With the expected improvement in supply and relatively stable demand, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [8] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price is relatively strong due to supply - demand and production capacity factors. The PTA price follows cost fluctuations, the MEG price is supported by low inventory, and the PR and PF markets have stable short - term supply - demand but cautious demand expectations [8] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Meals**: The demand for oils is positive due to biofuel demand and lower - than - expected palm oil inventory. The meal market is affected by planting area, weather, and import policies, and is expected to be volatile [4] - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The price is expected to be bearish with volatility [6]

到2025年，通胀率回落至2.3%，然而美联储却坚持将利率维持在4.25?.5%的高位，坚决不降息。特朗普的施压与威胁让美联储的独立性经受空前的考验。 而在2020年疫情危机期间，鲍威尔的果敢应对则成为他任内的耀眼功勋。2020年3月，新冠疫情席卷全球，美股在短短10天内经历4次熔断，失业率飙升至 14.7%，金融市场陷入流动性枯竭的恐慌之中。在这关键时刻，鲍威尔展现出与其平日谨慎风格截然不同的果断行动。 美联储在两周内将利率从1.5?.75%急速下调至零。 随着特朗普的公开施压以及对解雇的威胁，美联储的独立性正面临史无前例的考验。这位保守派领导者已经深陷舆论与政策的漩涡之中……看鲍威尔究竟 做错了什么，做对了什么？ 自2018年接手美联储以来，杰罗姆·鲍威尔经历了美国经济动荡近半个世纪的种种考验：从特朗普的减税政策所带来的繁荣，到新冠疫情引发的金融危 机，再者是四十年来罕见的通胀风暴，以及在2025年特朗普重回白宫后产生的政治斗争。鲍威尔的决策时而能够力挽狂澜，时而则显得迟缓无力，既成功 将市场从崩溃的边缘拉回，也因对形势的误判饱受指责。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.50% year-to-date, with a focus on achieving full employment and controlling inflation, targeting a 2% inflation rate [2][3] - Recent economic trends show a cooling labor market alongside rising inflation due to tariff initiatives, raising questions about a potential 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming September meeting [3][8] - The Fed's decision-making process is heavily reliant on economic data, with the next Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report due shortly after Powell's speech, which is expected to be data-dependent [6][8] Group 2 - The June PCE report indicated a headline inflation rate of +2.6%, which is moving away from the Fed's +2% target, while core PCE remained at +2.8% for two consecutive months [7][8] - The market showed positive movement in pre-market futures, with the S&P 500 attempting to break a five-session losing streak, reflecting adjustments in tech stock valuations and retail earnings amid tariff considerations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is expected to provide insights into the latest interest rate policy, particularly regarding the anticipated rate cuts in September and potential further cuts by the end of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Powell's Speech - Investors are almost certain about a rate cut in September and are closely monitoring Powell's indications regarding the policy path for the remainder of the year [2]. - The market is sensitive to any deviations from the expected dovish stance, with a 47% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, which could lead to significant market volatility [2][4]. Group 2: Scenarios Based on Powell's Indications - **Scenario 1: Hawkish Indications** If Powell suggests a more conservative rate cut path than expected, U.S. equities may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an overly optimistic outlook [4]. - **Scenario 2: Dovish Indications** A more accommodative stance from Powell could boost future earnings growth for major companies, positively impacting U.S. equities, although this scenario is considered the least likely [6]. - **Scenario 3: Meeting Market Expectations** If Powell's speech aligns with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another by year-end, market reactions could range from neutral to negative, as investors might engage in "sell the news" behavior [8].

美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚10点在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话。当前，美联储正 面临美国纵容特朗普前所未有的政治压力，但喜忧参半的经济数据可能迫使鲍威尔采取折中立场，导致 关键问题悬而未决。 在特朗普的施压下，投资者也对美联储下月降息充满期待。此前两位美联储理事已在最近一次政策会议 上推动降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软速度可能快于整体就业数据显示的情况。 然而，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且随着特朗普进口关税成本传导至零售价格，通胀预期可能进 一步上升。部分政策制定者认为，这种价格调整过程可能持续到明年，因此在此时降息需谨慎。 不过，波森认为降息可能是为就业市场提供"保险"，"部分原因是为了在政治上争取时间，因为如果不 降息，局势将更加紧张。但他们不会明说。" 特朗普的政治施压 随着特朗普的言行日益被视为对美联储独立性的威胁，鲍威尔和美联储所处的政治环境已成为降息叙事 中的重要组成部分——几乎任何决策都被解读为向特朗普妥协或无理对抗，而非基于事实的风险平衡。 特朗普对鲍威尔发起了猛烈的人身攻击，并要求其辞职。其政府内部有人以美联储大楼翻修成本超支为 由，鼓动"解雇"鲍威尔。但根据法律，美联储主席和 ...

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于今晚在杰克逊霍尔发表备受期待的讲话，市场将终于获知美联储对利率 政策的最新思路。 投资者目前几乎已确定9月降息，并密切关注鲍威尔对年底前政策路径的表态。隔夜市场对大型零售商 财报和美联储7月会议纪要反应平淡，反映出降息预期已成为当前市场焦点。 面对劳动力市场疲软但GDP表现良好、消费者通胀相对可控但生产者通胀上升的复杂经济环境，鲍威尔 的讲话全球瞩目。市场预期年底前可能有两次降息(可能性47%)，任何偏离预期的表态都可能引发市场 波动。 值得注意的是，尽管更多降息整体上是积极的，但可能导致股市内部轮动。随着资本获取更容易，盈利 修正预期增强，目前领涨市场的大型科技股可能失去青睐。本周早些时候，科技股为主的纳斯达克100 指数已经出现了相对更大的跌幅。 情景一：鹰派程度超预期 若鲍威尔暗示的降息路径比市场预期更为保守，美股可能面临回调压力。分析认为，目前市场接近历史 高点，估值已基本反映完美前景，这使其对降息预期的任何重新校准都极为敏感。 投资者看重低资金成本对企业未来盈利增长的提振作用，这历来是美股上涨的主要驱动力。如果企业获 得资本的难度高于预期，投资者可能减少持仓，引发市场回落 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and its potential impact on the US dollar index and interest rates [1][2] - The US dollar index is currently trading around 98.60, with expectations of further upward movement if Powell does not counter the market's rising interest rate cut expectations [1] - The US Treasury market is active, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.339% and the 2-year yield to 3.798%, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and a weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting for signals regarding the Fed's next rate actions, with a 77% probability of a rate cut in September indicated by futures markets [1] - The dollar's ability to maintain its upward trend largely depends on Powell's tone; a dovish stance could push the dollar index above 99.320, while a rebuttal to rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback towards the 98.317 support level [2] - The dollar index has broken through the 98.317 resistance level and is now above the 50-day simple moving average, with the next resistance levels identified at 98.950 and the major target range of 99.177-99.320 [2]

Federal Reserve Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, urging Chairman Powell to remove her from the board due to concerns over her financial history [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated she would not support a rate cut if a policy decision were made tomorrow, citing persistent high inflation [2][3] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but he is concerned about the labor market [3][4] Market Reactions - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75% [5] - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow down 152.81 points, as investors await Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference [6][7] U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a framework agreement on trade, which includes a commitment to apply either the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on EU goods [8][9] - The agreement aims to reduce tariffs on automobiles and parts, with a potential reduction to 15% contingent on EU legislative action [10] Polyester Sector Insights - The polyester sector has seen a rebound since August 15, driven by stable oil and coal prices, low inventory levels, and approaching demand season [11][12] - The upstream PX segment is performing well, while PTA and polyester segments are experiencing lower profits, indicating a "strong upstream, weak downstream" dynamic [13]

新华财经北京8月21日电（王姝睿）受英国8月超预期的PMI数据提振，投资者认为英国央行在2025年再 次降息的可能性降低。 数据显示，英国8月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）初值升至53.0，创2024年8月以来最高水平，远超预期 值51.6。此次增长主要由服务业强劲反弹推动，服务业PMI从7月的51.8升至53.6。英国企业对未来一年 的商业活动预期达到2024年10月以来最乐观水平。 凯投宏观认为，英国商业活动表现强劲的迹象增加了英国央行更长时间维持利率不变的可能性。根据周 四公布的商业调查，本月经济活动加快，显示英国私营部门的活力强于此前预期。 S&P Global首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示，数据表明英国经济在夏季加速增长，订单数据仍 显示需求环境"不平衡且脆弱"。企业报告称，他们对近期政府政策变化的影响表示担忧，同时也对更广 泛的地缘政治不确定性感到不安。由于4月雇主工资税和最低工资上调，企业劳动力成本增加，各行业 均在裁员，但裁员速度较7月有所放缓。 尽管整体数据向好，但英国8月制造业PMI跌至47.3，为三个月以来新低，并连续第五个月低于50荣枯 线，反映出全球贸易环境对其造成的影响。 英国 ...

另外，黄金市场近期观望情绪较浓，主要原因在于鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表演讲。而 根据过往经验，这一场合曾多次被他用于引导市场对利率政策的预期。 技术上看，金价围绕21日均线上下窄幅波动，方向并不十分明朗，本周多空分水岭在3355美元／盎司， 目前金价在该位置下方运行，说明当前市场是空头略占优势。若周内剩余时段金价能突破并重新站稳该 位置，金价周内仍有继续上行的空间。上行阻力关注3381美元／盎司附近，若金价有效突破该位置，阻 力调整至3428美元／盎司附近。下行支撑关注3309美元／盎司附近，若金价有效跌破该位置，支撑则调 整至3283美元／盎司附近，交易策略上暂时以观望为主。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京8月21日电 随着美联储人事问题再出波澜，避险需求推动国际金价隔夜探底回升，强势收 复前一天的跌幅。不过，在市场仍在观望等待美联储主席鲍威尔讲话，情绪偏向谨慎的背景下，黄金短 时方向或仍不明朗。 基本面方面，北京时间周四（8月21日）凌晨公布的7月货币政策会议纪要显示，多数美联储官员在上月 的会议中强调，通胀风险已压倒对劳动力市场的担忧。官员们承认对通胀高企和就业疲软的担忧，但主 流观点仍将通胀 ...