Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of urea has weakened, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand. In the fourth quarter, gas - based urea plants began maintenance in December, and coal - based plants that were under maintenance have gradually resumed operations. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, and the daily urea output has slightly decreased. Currently, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China continues to increase, but some plants in Hubei and other regions have insufficient operations due to raw material and weather factors, and the operating rate in Henan has decreased due to environmental protection. With the introduction of policies to ensure the supply of raw materials such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, and phosphate fertilizers, the sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded, with rigid demand for purchases. As off - season storage progresses, factory inventories are being depleted, and port inventories are slightly increasing. The subsequent purchase rhythm will slow down. Currently, new orders are decreasing, and the spot price has been lowered in major regions, with downstream buyers adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China, the raw material purchase rhythm, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents information on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes data on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][26][28] 4. Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Information on the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between overseas and Chinese prices, and the export profit and disk export profit of urea is provided [31][35][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders, are presented [56] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, and the futures warehouse receipts, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [54][58][63] Market Analysis Price and Basis - On December 15, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,629 yuan/ton (+4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,670 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu it was 1,680 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 71 yuan/ton (- 14), in Henan it was 41 yuan/ton (- 24), and in Jiangsu it was 51 yuan/ton (- 14). The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10), and the export profit was 844 yuan/ton (- 30) [1] Supply Side - As of December 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 81.85% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2342 million tons (- 56,300), and the inventory of port samples was 123,000 tons (+18,000). In the fourth quarter, gas - based urea plants began maintenance in December, and coal - based plants that were under maintenance have gradually resumed operations. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, and the daily urea output has slightly decreased [1][2] Demand Side - As of December 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.62% (+0.09%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.86% (+0.20%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.94 days (- 0.41). Currently, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The operating rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China continues to increase, but some plants in Hubei and other regions have insufficient operations due to raw material and weather factors, and the operating rate in Henan has decreased due to environmental protection. With the introduction of policies to ensure the supply of raw materials such as sulfur, sulfuric acid, and phosphate fertilizers, the sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded, with rigid demand for purchases [1][2] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

上周磷肥政策的改变，带来化肥板块投机性压制，尿素现货成交转弱。在政策保供与生产利润修复的支撑 下，尿素日产预计将维持高位，高供应对价格构成显著压力。然而出口政策的适时、连续调节，持续为基本 面泄压，从而削弱了价格的下行驱动强度。在出口政策调控背景下，短期现货价格受到明显压制，业内情绪 有减弱，短线国内尿素行情走低。由于目前东北地区已经连续补库两周，复合肥工厂及贸易商追高意愿逐步 减弱，但尿素显性库存连续去库，基本面对价格形成支撑。总体而言，尿素市场处于基本面与政策的区间 内。短期其下行空间受到有力支撑，但上方同样承压，01预计将延续震荡走势。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 南华期货尿素产业周报 ——期现回归 2025/12/14 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 0 2 4 6 | | | 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期 出口配额企业多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1690 （+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差7，升贴水比例0.4%，中性； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135.7万吨（-3.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面弱势下行，工业需求按需 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 12 日 【行情分析】 尿素日报：雨雪天气恐影响发运 尿素盘面低开低走，日内下跌超 1%。现货价格保持稳定，以窄幅波动为 主，下游观望情绪浓厚。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围 多在 1630-1680 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端，高端价位成交寥寥。基本面来 看，前期装置复产后，日产有所回升，今日肥易通数据显示日产约 19.5 万吨， 但后续气头装置检修依然在继续，中下旬产量依然有下降区间。下游以经销商 及复合肥厂拿货为主。由于原料端价格的上涨，复合肥成品价格居高，导致终 端畏高情绪。工厂走货以前期订单发运为主，本期开工负荷增速大幅下降，环 比增长 0.09%，依然同比偏低 2.97%，虽有一定的回升空间，但受制于原料端高 企的价格及终端的疲软心态，预计复产进程有限，周末华北地区大雪天气，影 响发运，推迟后续备货节奏。本期库存继续去化，环比去化 4.36%。综合来 说，天气影响市场对后市的需求，周末收单预计下滑，盘面抗跌性转弱，短期 难有大幅反弹。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1631 元/吨开盘, 低开低走，日内下跌 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.12」 「 期货市场情况」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1660-1700元/吨， 均价环比持平。尿素市场窄幅松动，尿素工厂暂时有订单支撑，上下游暂时僵持为主。尿素市场 交投气氛走低，成交重心小幅下移。 行情展望：部分前期检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量小幅增加，下周预计2家企业装置计划停车， 1家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量变动幅度预计有限。进入12月份之 后储备需求有所放缓，但短期仍有补仓需求。复合肥工业对尿素需求较为坚挺，企业继续排产冬 储肥，复合肥产能利用率预计稳中有升。目前尿素分批进行港口发运，部分企业发运进行收尾阶 段。工业复合肥对尿素的刚需推进、储备需求的适当补仓，以及部分企业出口订单的兑现，助推 本周尿素工厂库存继续下降。短期工业复合肥开工较高，持续需求推进，部分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that the supply - demand pattern continued to deteriorate and the decline of urea widened; this week's view is that urea continues to decline as prices are cut to receive orders before the holiday [3] - The market sentiment has been average since the weekend, with the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas falling and the trading volume being mediocre [3] - The supply is abundant as the overhauled plants are gradually resuming production and the daily output has increased to over 190,000 tons; the demand is in a "vacuum period" with the agricultural demand ending and the compound fertilizer not starting large - scale production [3] - The third batch of export quotas has been implemented, and urea has returned to the domestic fundamentals. Although the collective sharp rebound of bulk commodities provides some emotional support for urea futures, the order - receiving weakens after the spot price rises, and it is still treated with a volatile mindset in the short term [3] - The trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading without chasing the short; to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2.1 Core Data Changes - Supply - National: In the 37th week of 2025 (20250911 - 0917), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 83.88%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [4] - Supply - Shandong: The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 81.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [4] - Demand - Melamine: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from last week [4] - Demand - Compound Fertilizer: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81 percentage points [4] - Demand - Urea Demand of Compound Fertilizer: As of September 19, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 370 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 59.78% [4] - Demand - Advance Receipt: As of September 17, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.18 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period [4] - Inventory - Enterprise: On September 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1653 million tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [4] - Inventory - Port: As of September 18, 2025 (the 38th week), the sample inventory of urea ports was 516,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,400 tons [4] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal rose, the spot price of urea fell, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production had a profit of 40 yuan/ton, the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 270 yuan/ton, the futures price fell, the basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Urea new order transactions have slowed down, and spot prices have loosened. In the fourth - quarter, gas - based plant maintenance starts in December, while coal - based plant maintenance has gradually recovered. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, so the urea supply remains stable. Currently, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The operating rates of compound fertilizers in the Northeast and Hubei regions continue to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall increase in the operating rate. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded with rigid demand for procurement. As off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement activities progress, urea enterprises' shipments have improved. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. However, the subsequent procurement pace may slow down. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement pace, the national off - season storage pace, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 8, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,646 yuan/ton (-27). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-30), and in Jiangsu it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton (-3), in Henan was 44 yuan/ton (+7), and in Jiangsu was 44 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. II. Urea Output - As of December 8, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 8, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (-30), and the export profit was 859 yuan/ton (-52). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - No specific data summary other than the export profit of 859 yuan/ton (-52) on December 8, 2025, is provided. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (+0.70) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 8, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate and correct, and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage positions opportunistically. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see. - Inter - commodity: None [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some downward pressure on the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the oversupply pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (UR01, UR05, UR09) decreased on December 8 compared to December 5. UR01 dropped from 1673.00 yuan/ton to 1646.00 yuan/ton (-1.61%); UR05 from 1736.00 yuan/ton to 1710.00 yuan/ton (-1.50%); UR09 from 1752.00 yuan/ton to 1724.00 yuan/ton (-1.60%). [1] - Domestic spot prices for small - granular urea in most regions either decreased or remained unchanged. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1720.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.74%); in Henan, from 1710.00 yuan/ton to 1690.00 yuan/ton (-1.17%). [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1646 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1651 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 167073 hands. [1] Long - Short Logic - In terms of valuation, the rebound of urea from the bottom is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In terms of drivers, export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may encourage storage enterprises to enter the market. [1] Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on opportunities to go long on dips. [1]

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 尿素：震荡回落 国 泰 君 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,673 | 1,688 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,682 | 1,694 | -12 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 110,200 | 155,992 | -45792 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 110,200 | 155,992 | -45792 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 200,353 | 209, ...