1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -72, and the premium - discount ratio is -4.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is moderately weak, agricultural demand is weak, and the improvement in exports compared to the previous period boosts the market sentiment. The domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 million tons | | 19.5681 million tons | 4.4838 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 236,600 tons | 24.0519 million tons | | | 2019 | | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 4.8794 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 378,600 tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 6.1912 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 378,300 tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 3.5241 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 357,200 tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 3.3537 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 446,200 tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 2.9313 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 446,500 tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 3.6 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 514,000 tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1590 | -10 | 01 Contract | 1662 | 10 | Warehouse Receipts | 7183 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -72 | -20 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.566 million tons | | | Henan Spot | 1600 | 0 | UR01 | 1662 | 10 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.484 million tons | | | FOB China | 2843 | | UR05 | 1737 | 10 | UR Port Inventory | 82,000 tons | | | | | | UR09 | 1755 | 7 | | | | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea's rebound is limited and is expected to fluctuate widely. The 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1,600 - 1,700 yuan/ton. This is mainly due to the recovery of urea maintenance devices leading to increased daily output, the spread of agricultural fertilizer demand, some support from compound fertilizer production for urea demand, appropriate low - price stocking for off - season storage, the re - accumulation of port inventory, a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts, and the high daily output and high inventory situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: On November 14th, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,652 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous week. The average daily price in the Henan urea spot market was 1,594 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [4][5]. - **Basis**: The main urea basis first strengthened and then weakened. On November 14th, the main basis in the Henan market was - 58 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-63) - (-33) yuan/ton [4][8]. - **Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly. On November 14th, the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (-77) - (-72) yuan/ton [4][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 83.93%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 72.89%, unchanged from the previous week. The average daily urea output was 19.67 tons. Some maintenance devices in Shanxi and Henan are planned to resume production next week, and supply is expected to increase [4][11]. Cost - The anthracite market continued its upward trend. As of November 13th, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the price center rising 15 yuan/ton from the previous week's closing price [4][15]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 7.91%, and that of gas - based urea was - 14.25%. Due to the strong operation of coal prices at the cost end, the production profit of urea decreased slightly [15]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: The average pre - collection period of major urea producers was 4.1 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 96.4%. Autumn harvest and sowing are underway, agricultural demand is moderately increasing, and off - season storage is stocking at appropriate low prices, resulting in a marginal improvement in urea production and sales. Currently, winter wheat in the north is in the concentrated sowing period, and late rice in the south is in the large - scale harvesting stage [4][19][23]. - **Industrial Demand**: - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 31.04%, unchanged from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.11 tons, a decrease of 0.33 tons from the previous week. Recently, the compound fertilizer production rate has increased, and the inventory reduction speed of finished products has slowed down [4][23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 57.06%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 2,872 tons. It is expected that the operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will fluctuate above 60% next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores have increased, and the demand support for the panel market has been strengthened [27]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 128.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons from the previous week. Urea port inventory was 26.1 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 7,183, equivalent to 14,366 tons, an increase of 2,598 from the previous week [4][30]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the production reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea spot new orders follow-up has slowed down. Affected by export news, the futures market has risen slightly and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Agricultural autumn fertilization is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilization is also wrapping up. Winter storage fertilizer production has not yet started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. The operating rate of melamine has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments have improved, factory inventories have decreased, and port inventories have slightly increased. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which improves the year-end export outlook and is expected to support the spot market. On November 7, India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tenders, intending to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender closes on November 20, is valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures on Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [3][4][5] 2. Urea Production - Figures on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [4][5] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows figures on production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates [4][5] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Figures on urea small particle FOB prices in the Baltic Sea, large particle CFR prices in Southeast Asia, small and large particle FOB and CFR prices in China, and urea export and on - screen export profits are presented [4][5] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided [4][5] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures on upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and main contract positions and trading volumes are presented [4][5] Market Data - On November 13, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,658 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 58 yuan/ton (-3), the Henan basis was - 48 yuan/ton (-3), and the Jiangsu basis was - 68 yuan/ton (-13). Urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 940 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (+0.08%), the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 82,000 tons (+3,000 tons) [1] - As of November 13, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42 days) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: "消息证伪，回归基本面" - Release Date: November 13, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department - Author's Qualification Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market was generally warm today. After the export news was falsified, the market returned to the fundamental logic. The upstream factory resumption and new production increased the daily output, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price. The downstream inventory was being depleted, and the market was affected by factors such as environmental inspections and raw material price fluctuations [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The overall commodity futures market was warm. Urea opened flat and moved lower, with a slight increase during the day. The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. - The upstream factory resumption and new production pushed the daily output to 200,000 tons, nearly 9% higher than the same period last year, and high daily output was expected to continue this month. The coal price rebounded rapidly in the heating season, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price due to the cold winter expectation [1]. - The autumn fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions was basically finished, and the compound fertilizer factory's start - up load decreased. After the end of environmental inspections, the start - up rate would rise again. The autumn fertilizer inventory was being depleted, and the winter storage policy was cautious due to raw material price fluctuations. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchases increased, and the inventory was being depleted [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,652 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, and rose in the afternoon, closing at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250,538 lots, a decrease of 5,582 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 2,296 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,046 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of +397 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of +599 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +761 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +926 lots [2]. Spot - The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 13, 2025, the national urea daily output was 207,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 85.51% [11]. Enterprise Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [12]. Downstream Data - From November 7 to November 13, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Urea spot new orders follow-up slowed down, and the futures market rose slightly due to export news. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is winding up, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. The overall operating rate remains stable. Melamine operating rate increased slightly, with rigid demand procurement. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and inventory decreased. The high inventory area is still Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light storage rhythm. The news of the fourth batch of 600,000 tons of export quotas has improved the year-end export expectation of urea, which is expected to support the spot market. India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tender on November 7, with an intention to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender will close on November 20, be valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 12, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton (+15). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was -55 yuan/ton (-25), in Henan was -45 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was -55 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (up 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 12, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (-10), and the export profit was 930 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but the export profit is mentioned in the price and basis section, with an export profit of 930 yuan/ton (-1) on November 12, 2025 [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (unchanged), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (up 3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The urea market showed a pattern of opening low and then rising in the afternoon. Although downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. With upstream factory复产 and new production increasing daily output to 200,000 tons and expected to maintain high production this month, the abundant supply makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. The rising coal prices in the heating season are expected to support the urea price from the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for reserve - type domestic use, and raw material fertilizer preparation will gradually start as factories resume work. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchasing has increased, and inventory has been declining. The afternoon market rally was mainly due to export news and improved demand, but supply and high inventory still create significant upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1643 yuan/ton, opened low and then rose in the afternoon, closing at 1655 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The trading volume was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2,247 lots and short positions increased by 2,515 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: Downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, but there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with limited transactions at the high end [1][3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, an increase of 146 from the previous trading day, with all the increase from Ningling Stanley [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: On November 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,500 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51% [10]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease [11]. - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 12, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [11].

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑不足，盘面下挫 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 11 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌，基本收复上周五涨幅。下游畏高，上游工厂 多执行前期低价订单，预计短期现货报价将继续下调。山东、河南及河北尿素工 厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1550-1600 元/吨，个别工厂低端价格略有下调。 基本面来看，供应端基本稳定，日产在 20 万吨左右震荡运行，复产及新投产支 撑高供应的运行。煤炭原料端，供暖旺季价格快速回升，今年冷冬预期下，成本 线预计持续支撑尿素下方。期货盘面降温后，市场高价成交抵触，下游需求以储 备型内需为主，苏皖地区的小麦肥收尾，复合肥工厂刚需拿货，目前工厂开工温 和上行，冬储政策尚未明确，东北地区工厂预计月底逐渐开工，备肥节奏缓慢， 下游需求目前难以支撑价格。供需相对宽松，上游厂内尿素库存继续增加，且部 分上游工厂以淡储为主，谨慎出货，预计库存继续环比回升。出口消息目前基本 被盘面消化，而疲弱内需难以支撑行情，期现共振下行，现货依然贴水于期货， 但基差环比收窄。 2025 年 11 月 11 日，尿素仓单数量 6812 张，环比上个交易日+685 张，辽宁 化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, opportunistic cash-and-carry arbitrage in futures and spot markets [3] - Inter - delivery spread: On the sidelines [3] - Inter - commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are temporarily stable, but new order follow - up has slowed. The market sentiment has improved due to export quota news, with some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizers ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers winding up, and melamine's operation slightly increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - based plant maintenance is expected to start in December. The export sentiment still affects the urea market, and the newly - obtained export quota and the Indian import tender may support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,660 yuan/ton (-7). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,620 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), in Henan was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), and in Jiangsu was - 50 yuan/ton (+37) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (0.08% change). There is information about urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume in related figures [1][17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 90 yuan/ton (+20). There are also data on production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production in related figures [1][19] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - On November 10, 2025, the urea export profit was 962 yuan/ton (+42). The report mentions that urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, and on November 7, India's IPL issued a new urea import tender for 2.5 million tons. There are also data on overseas prices and export profit margins in related figures [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of November 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (0.00% change), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (+3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.29 days (-0.24) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5781 million tons (+23,800), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to be supported in a volatile range. The mid - stream's continuous replenishment and new export quotas support prices, while policy regulation weakens the downward pressure from high domestic supply [2][3] - The domestic fundamentals of urea face relatively large pressure, but policy regulation reduces the intensity of the downward drive. In the fourth quarter, it is a "buyer's market" in China. The 01 contract has a strong resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The trading volume was 321,705 lots, an increase of 172,820 lots, and the open interest of the 01 contract was 268,588 lots, a decrease of 6,554 lots. The basis in Shandong was - 67 yuan, down 3 yuan, and the UR01 - UR05 spread was - 67 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of most urea producers remained stable, with only Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 10 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan and 30 yuan respectively. The industry's operating rate was 80.69%, up 0.43 percentage points, and the daily output was 188,760 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [1] Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a 1.53% increase. Some regions' inventories increased due to environmental protection and market demand changes [2]

中泰期货尿素周报 ——尿素生产成本上移 尿素出口再度放开 2025 . 1 1 . 9 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | 2025年10月31日-11 | 2025年11月7日-11 | 2025年11月14日-11 | 2025年11月21日-11月27 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月6日 | 月13日 | 月20日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量： | 19.35 | 19.86 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本 周预计1家企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生 | | | 万吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | | | | | | 2025年第45周(20251031-1106)，复合肥本周期产能利 ...