尿素日报 | 2025-09-25 尿素企业库存继续累积 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-24，尿素主力收盘1673元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1610 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-63 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：-63元/吨（-25）；江苏基差：-53元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（+0），出口利润1149 元/吨（+9）。 供应端：截至2025-09-24，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨（+5.29），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-24，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（+0.53）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，随盘面反弹 成交好转，关注节前收单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复 ...

尿素基本面数据 2025 年 09 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 尿素：节前步入震荡格局 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 1. 2025 年 9 月 24 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 121.82 万吨，较上周增加 5.29 万吨，环比增加 4.54%。本周期尿素企业库存继续上涨，临近国庆，各地尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单，少数企 业因流向问题造成库存上涨，部分企业积极发货去库存，虽然企业库存涨跌不一，但整体库 存仍处于上涨趋势。其中企业库存增加的省份：甘肃、河北、河南、湖北、吉林、江西、内 蒙古、四川、新疆、重庆。企业库存减少的省份：安徽、海南、黑龙江、江苏、青海、山东、 山西、陕西。（隆众资讯） 2. 短期国庆节前尿素期货逐步进入震荡格局。短期而言，尿素生产企业节前持续降价收单，在 期货研究 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,673 | 1,658 | 1 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,672 | 1,658 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-09-24 内需依旧偏弱，九江心连心开车成功 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-23，尿素主力收盘1658元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-48 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-38元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-38元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（-10），出口利润1140 元/吨（+19）。 供应端：截至2025-09-23，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-23，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收 单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货 ...

【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | and the comments of | | --- | | | 尿素：周内走势关注现货节前收单，趋势仍偏 弱 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,660 | 1,661 | - 1 1077 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,658 | 1,666 | - 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 113,802 | 112,725 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 307,396 | 297,254 | 10142 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,535 | 7,810 | -275 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 377,421 | 375,627 ...

成文日期：20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250919）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行，收盘价为 1661 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手，较上日减少 0.1 万手，持仓量 29.7 万手，较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1： 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply Recovery, Limited Demand Support [1] Core View - Urea prices fluctuated this week, with the futures price slightly down and the spot price also decreasing. The supply has increased as maintenance devices resumed operation, while agricultural demand is scattered. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers has slightly improved, but urea production and sales are still weak, and enterprise inventories have continued to accumulate. The port is exporting, and attention should be paid to the support level of the 01 contract and the positive - spread trading opportunity of the 1 - 5 spread [3]. Market Changes - **Price**: On September 19, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,661 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.12%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 1.22% [3][6]. - **Basis**: The main urea basis weakened. On September 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 36 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from - 51 to - 35 yuan/ton [3][8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened. On September 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan/ton, and the weekly range was from - 61 to - 48 yuan/ton [3][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 80.24%, an increase of 2.78 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.94%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output was 190,000 tons. Next week, some Shanxi manufacturers' devices are planned to stop or undergo maintenance, while the maintenance devices of Henan Xinlianxin are gradually resuming. It is expected that the spot supply will still increase, with the daily output ranging from 185,000 to 195,000 tons [10]. Cost - The anthracite market increased slightly. As of September 18, the含税 price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 920 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 10 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: National agricultural demand is scattered at this stage. Autumn harvest is underway in the Northwest, Jianghan, and Southwest regions. In Chongqing, the harvest of rice and corn is basically completed, and the soybean harvest is over 50%. In Sichuan, about 70% of the rice and 60% of the corn have been harvested. In Guizhou, about 40% of the autumn grain has been harvested. In Hubei, nearly 70% of the corn, nearly 60% of the soybeans, and nearly 20% of the single - cropping rice have been harvested [3][19]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 799,800 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved [3][19]. - **Other Industrial Demand**: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.76%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 27,480 tons. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation for nearly two months. Urea port inventory was 837,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week. There were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 156,200 tons [3][25]. Key Points of Attention - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the transaction improved. After manufacturers raised the quotes, the transaction was average. - Domestic demand is weak, with urea factory inventories continuing to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in Northeast China. - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. - The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. - The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. In September, it is still the export window period, and urea exports are continuing with an accelerating pace, leading to a decline in port inventories. The export volume in August was 800,000 tons, and the export volume in September is still expected. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the month - on - month improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary of Each Section Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On September 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,670 yuan/ton (- 11). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,650 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,640 yuan/ton (- 10); in Jiangsu, it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 30 yuan/ton (+ 1); in Henan, it was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 1); in Jiangsu, it was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 11). The urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (- 10), and the export profit was 1,158 yuan/ton (- 5) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of September 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1653 million tons (+ 32,600 tons), and the port sample inventory was 516,000 tons (- 33,400 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of September 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 38.63% (+ 0.81%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+ 1.40%); the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.18 days (- 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Sections in the Table of Contents - **Urea Basis Structure**: It includes figures such as the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, the price of the urea main continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [5][1][6] - **Urea Production**: It includes figures of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [5][23] - **Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate**: It includes figures of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][27][35] - **Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit**: It includes figures of FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR prices of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, and urea export profit and disk export profit [5][34][44] - **Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders**: It includes figures of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and the number of days of orders to be delivered [5][51][52] - **Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes figures of upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract positions, and main contract trading volume [5][55][58]

尿素日报 | 2025-09-18 内需偏弱，厂内库存继续累积 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-17，尿素主力收盘1681元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1660 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-31 元/吨（+5）；河南基差：-21元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：-31元/吨（+5）；尿素生产利润120元/吨（+0），出口利润1163 元/吨（-4）。 供应端：截至2025-09-17，企业产能利用率79.34%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为54.94 万吨（-7.15）。 需求端：截至2025-09-17，复合肥产能利用率37.82%（+4.74%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.38%（-3.60%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，山东河南价格跌至1580元/吨后成交好转，厂家上调报价后成交一般。目前部分 地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥厂拿货积极性不高，逢低采购 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差79，升贴水比例4.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超 ...

9月上旬尿素期货价格整体呈现下跌走势，现货市场观望情绪较浓。短期来看，尿素供需宽松，市场情 绪偏空。在缺乏明显利多驱动的情况下，预计期货价格维持偏弱震荡态势。 现货市场交投氛围依旧偏弱，部分地区现货报价明显下移，山东、河南等主要产区中小颗粒尿素出厂价 普遍跌至年内低位。在需求难以显著增长的情况下，现货市场疲软态势预计将持续。 供应方面，尽管部分装置检修导致日产量短期降至19万吨，但国内尿素整体供应仍处于相对高位。根据 隆众资讯数据，9月第2周新增4台装置停车，4台装置恢复生产，产量小幅上涨；产能利用率为 79.34%，环比上升1.24个百分点。随着计划检修的装置数量不断减少，预计尿素产能利用率和日产量都 将进一步提升。根据最新的产能投放计划，今年四季度仍有新增产能释放，2026年尿素日产量可能突破 21万吨大关，届时国内供应压力将进一步加剧。此外，当前上游企业库存持续累积，处于近5年同期高 位。最新数据显示，国内尿素企业总库存为113.27万吨，同比增长50%，库存压力较大。2025年尿素生 产利润同比明显下滑，新型气流床生产利润约300元/吨，传统固定床生产利润约50元/吨，天然气工艺 生产利润约150元/ ...