Report Information - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.10.12 - 2025.10.18) [3] - Date: October 18, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Lv Qiang, Wang Zheyi [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an analysis of the economic situation from multiple aspects during the period of 2025.10.12 - 2025.10.18, indicating that the industrial production shows a seasonal rebound, personnel flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction investment is weak but the real - estate market rebounds seasonally, and export port throughput decreases with differentiated shipping indices. Also, various major policy events have occurred during this period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Large - Scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. The ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index had the largest weekly increase of 0.33%. The STAR 50 Index had the largest weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index had the largest decline of 3.43%. The Japanese yen had the largest increase against the RMB with a weekly increase of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB with a weekly increase of 0.05% [3]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production showed a seasonal rebound. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week. The petroleum asphalt plant operation rate increased by 1.30 percentage points to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operation rate remained the same as last week at 84.25%, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operation rate increased by 1.35 percentage points to 41.33% week - on - week, the float glass operation rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 76.65%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operation rate decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 91.06% week - on - week, the PTA operation rate decreased by 1.92 percentage points to 75.56%, and the methanol operation rate increased by 4.00 percentage points to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automobile chain, the automobile semi - steel tire operation rate increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72% week - on - week, and the automobile all - steel tire operation rate increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% week - on - week [3]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow increased, and freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3]. 3.4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales declined, and prices showed a mixed performance. The previous - period automobile wholesale decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail increased by 7.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate declined. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The pork price decreased by 2.38% week - on - week, and the vegetable price increased by 0.13% week - on - week [3]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed weak performance, and the real - estate market rebounded seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate decreased by 2.1 percentage points week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 percentage points week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices showed a mixed performance. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [3]. 3.7. Major Policies/Events - On October 13, the year - on - year export in September 2025 was 8.3%, exceeding expectations. On October 14, China imposed countermeasures on 5 US subsidiaries of South Korea's Hwa Ocean Co., Ltd. On October 14, the central bank announced a 6 - month repurchase of 600 billion yuan on October 15. On October 15, the year - on - year growth rates of CPI and PPI improved moderately. On October 15, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing decreased. On October 17, the central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [3].

Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, including industrial production, people and freight flow, consumption, investment, export, and the performance of major asset classes. It points out that industrial production shows seasonal recovery, people flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction shows weakness while the real - estate market recovers seasonally, port throughput decreases, and shipping indices are differentiated. Also, major asset classes show distinct trends with bond indices rising, stock indices falling, most commodities dropping, and foreign currencies appreciating [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 0.33%; the STAR 50 Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index fell the most, with a decline of 3.43%. Foreign currencies appreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest increase, a weekly gain of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciating against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.05% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Production shows seasonal recovery. In the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.25% compared with last week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar production increased by 1.35 pcts to 41.33% week - on - week, the operating rate of float glass increased by 0.34 pcts to 76.65% week - on - week, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 pcts to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament decreased by 0.03 pcts to 91.06% week - on - week, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 1.92 pcts to 75.56% week - on - week, and the operating rate of methanol increased by 4.00 pcts to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 pcts to 72.72% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 20.56 pcts to 64.52% week - on - week [1]. 3. People and Freight Flow - People flow increased, while freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, but the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales showed a decline, and prices were differentiated. The previous period's automobile wholesale sales decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail sales increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates both declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices were differentiated, with pork prices decreasing by 2.38% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 0.13% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction showed weakness, while the real - estate market recovered seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 2.1 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices were differentiated. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the SCFI index increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the CCFI index decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [1].

#投资我 15 岁的时候玩魔兽世界做地精，赚了很多 G。后来有了金团，做老板进去消费，最好的装备都直接买了，绕过了进团 farm 赚 DKP 的过程。可惜直到快 30 岁才玩 Crypto 做投资，发现和 15 岁做的事情一模一样，也赚了一点。在现实里喜欢的东西大部分不用考虑价格，终结了打工 farm 赚工资的过程。仅仅考虑钱的方面，这 15 年确实走了弯路😂所以我敬佩那些少年天才，更喜欢他们从无到有，快速变强的那个版本。那也是 15 岁的我，在当时的现实情况下，把自己喜欢的事情做成了。秋田散人 (@lnkybtc):我们 20 岁之前为梦幻西游魔兽世界充的钱，不亚于 00 后在币圈交的学费。但这两笔钱对于财务与真实世界的理解和教学来说，大概是意义相差甚远的。 ...

Investment Philosophy - Strong individuals appreciate other strong individuals [1] - Weak individuals tend to be jealous, slander, and insult strong individuals [2] - Most people in the world are weak [3] - When unable to confirm facts, the choice of version depends on whether one wants to be strong or weak [3]

Core Insights - Dave Ramsey emphasizes a straightforward approach to retirement planning, focusing on consistent saving, debt avoidance, wise investing, and a long-term perspective on retirement [1][2] Retirement Planning - Retirement planning starts with setting clear goals, yet only about 52% of individuals have calculated their necessary retirement savings according to the 34th Annual Retirement Confidence Survey [3] - Ramsey encourages individuals to visualize their ideal retirement lifestyle to motivate goal achievement [3] Investment Strategy - Ramsey recommends investing 15% of gross income in mutual funds through tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s, which is deemed sufficient for significant progress towards retirement goals while allowing for short-term financial objectives [4] - For example, an individual earning $100,000 annually and investing 15% ($15,000) at an average annual return of 8% could accumulate nearly $1.1 million in 25 years without increasing contributions [5] Debt Management - Ramsey advocates for a debt-free lifestyle, advising individuals to pay off all debts, excluding mortgages, well before retirement [6] Key Questions for Retirement - Important questions to consider include desired retirement age, activities during retirement, necessary savings, monthly investment amounts, investment choices, and preparation for medical and long-term care expenses [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have caused anxiety among investors, highlighting the need for a more rational approach to investment decisions rather than succumbing to market panic [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The gold price recently broke the 990 mark, leading to heightened anxiety among investors, with one individual expressing fear of missing out on potential gains [1]. - The article emphasizes that market volatility often triggers irrational behavior among investors, leading to poor decision-making [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Gold is characterized as a "stabilizing asset" in an investment portfolio, but it is not the most lucrative option compared to high-quality stocks in the long term [3]. - The article suggests that younger generations are finding alternative ways to engage with gold, such as renting for ceremonial purposes, which alleviates the pressure of high purchase costs [3]. - It is advised that investors should focus on their risk tolerance and investment horizon rather than fixating on short-term market movements [3].

Group 1 - The article highlights the lack of awareness among investors regarding bond index funds compared to stock index funds, suggesting a need for education on investment methods for bond index funds [2] - A free course is offered to help investors understand the investment strategies related to bond index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The concept of "moat" is introduced, emphasizing the importance of a company's competitive advantage and its sustainability for long-term profitability [6] - The article references Warren Buffett's 1999 article on the moat theory, stating that products or services protected by a strong moat can yield substantial returns for investors [6] - It discusses the challenges of low-barrier opportunities in the market, which lead to increased competition and reduced profitability, highlighting the necessity of having a moat to avoid relentless competition [6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs President John Waldron stated that U.S. economic growth is increasingly driven by investment rather than consumption [1] Group 1 - The emphasis on investment as a key driver of economic growth indicates a shift in the economic landscape [1] - This perspective suggests potential opportunities for sectors related to capital investment and infrastructure development [1]

#投资批量涌现野生的优秀交易员，回头看可能就是这些年份的奇人奇景。金融知识为零的小白，从各行各业转入 Crypto 领域，短短几年内实战经验浓缩了金融领域几十年变迁，最终实现百倍乃至万倍的本金扩张。虽然红利缩水，赚得不是最多的。但我认为 2021-2025 入行的这批人绝对是 Crypto 历史上最强的。身为其中平庸的一员，还是得感恩时代。郭宇 guoyu.eth (@turingou):趁着暴跌，我和 becky 聊了一会儿我自己这十几年来对大饼价格的理解，录音因为涉及到一些具体的人和公司，不方便发出来，所以我整理个文字版本。大饼的真实价格发现我认为分为三个阶段，上古的 OTC 交易阶段，中心化交易所订单簿阶段和大饼 ETF 通过后的华尔街屯币阶段。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price has increased by over 50% this year due to uncertainties in global trade, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the stability of the U.S. fiscal situation [1] - On October 8, gold reached a historical high of $4059.07 per ounce before retreating, indicating short-term downward pressure due to overbought conditions [1] - Current trading shows gold fluctuating around $4030 per ounce, with a potential for profit-taking after a strong four-day rally [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase, facing resistance near the $4000 mark and support around the same level [3] - A double top pattern is forming, suggesting a potential decline towards $3930 and possibly $3900 if the $4000 support is broken [3] - The short-term trading strategy recommends selling on rebounds near $4000 and buying on dips around $3930 and $3900 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is experiencing a reduction in risk premium as tensions in the Middle East ease, with Brent crude oil prices dropping below $66 per barrel [4] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to rising inventories and uncertain future demand recovery [4] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with WTI crude oil stabilizing around $62 per barrel [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil price has broken below its lower trading range, indicating a downward trend [4] - Short-term trends show oil prices facing resistance at $62.30 and support at $60.5 to $59.5 [4] - The trading strategy suggests selling on rebounds and buying on dips, focusing on the resistance and support levels mentioned [4]