Core Insights - The article discusses the investment philosophy of Prakash Prasad from Aranda Investment, emphasizing risk avoidance and historical analysis over speculative predictions [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Prasad's investment approach is characterized by avoiding significant risks, which he believes is essential for long-term survival in the market [1] - He advocates for focusing on historical data rather than future predictions, aligning with the principles of evolutionary biology [2][3] - The article highlights that successful investors should prioritize high-quality companies and avoid those with high debt or questionable management practices [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Prasad's strategy includes purchasing high-quality stocks at reasonable prices, particularly during periods of short-term setbacks [1] - The article notes that Aranda Investment has only made a few significant purchases in the past decade, indicating a disciplined investment approach [1] - Investors are encouraged to rely on high-cost signals from companies, such as consistent historical performance, rather than low-cost promotional claims [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The economic situation from November 9 to November 15, 2025, shows weak supply and demand, with downward pressure on prices. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow is increasing, and freight prices are slightly rising. Consumption, investment, and exports all show mixed trends, and there are also corresponding changes in the performance of major asset classes [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - Bond indices mostly rose, with the AA and AA - indices of ChinaBond corporate bonds rising the most, both by 0.06%. - Stock indices generally fell, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling the most, with a weekly decline of 3.85%. - Commodities showed mixed performance, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rising the most by 5.07% and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index falling the most by 0.65%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.36%, and the US dollar depreciating by 0.31% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Upstream: The coal consumption of the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.70 pcts to 29.00%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.36 pcts to 82.79%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00% week - on - week. - Real estate chain: The operating rate of rebar increased by 0.68 pcts to 41.98%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 75.30%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 3.50 pcts to 33.68%. - Consumer goods chain: The operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.41 pcts to 91.23%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.51 pcts to 76.18%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 0.69 pcts to 83.94%. - Automobile chain: The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 0.01 pcts to 73.68%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires decreased by 0.96 pcts to 64.50% [1]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 0.80% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 0.61%, while that of international flights decreased by 0.42%. Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, while those in Shenzhen and Guangzhou increased. - Freight prices rose slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.03% week - on - week, but the total volume was lower than the same period last year [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 22.00% year - on - year, and retail decreased by 19.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. - Movie box office and attendance increased. The weekly box office increased by 107%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers increased by 94%. - Agricultural product prices declined. The price of pork decreased by 0.93% week - on - week, and the price of vegetables decreased by 3.41% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction performance was weak. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.03%, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 3.7 pcts. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.3% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.0% week - on - week. - The real estate market showed seasonal upward trends. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 20.1% week - on - week, with increases in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6%, while the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.4%. The land transaction area in 100 cities decreased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Exports - Port throughput decreased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 4.3%, while the container throughput increased by 1.4%. - Most shipping indices rose. The BDI index increased by 1.00% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, and the CCFI index increased by 3.39% week - on - week [1].

#投资已经不是隐隐的感觉，而是比较确定了。脚踏实地的。 ...

#投资看段永平采访感觉完全没登味啊，很真实，很圈粉的一期。是我有登味？ ...

Investment Performance - USDT 资金池复合年化收益率约为 21% [1] - BTC 资金池复合年化收益率约为 11% [1] - 极端保守策略下，最大回撤为 0 [1] Risk Management - 日常杠杆在 0.1-0.5 之间 [1] - 极端情况下杠杆不到 0.5 [1] Market Comparison - 币圈的 beta 收益优于传统金融 [1]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving letter this year is particularly anticipated as he hands over the reins of Berkshire Hathaway to Greg Abel, leading to a sense of loss among shareholders regarding Buffett's insights [5][12] - Buffett converted 1,800 A shares into 2.7 million B shares and donated them to four family foundations, highlighting his commitment to philanthropy [5][6] - The letter emphasizes the importance of trust in leadership, with Buffett expressing confidence in Abel's capabilities to manage the company [8][75] Group 1 - Buffett's Thanksgiving letter is filled with personal reflections and gratitude, contrasting with the more business-focused annual shareholder letters [7][19] - The letter discusses the transition of leadership to Greg Abel, who Buffett believes is exceptionally qualified to manage the company's funds [15][75] - Buffett reflects on his life experiences and the influence of key individuals in his journey, emphasizing the importance of relationships and mentorship [35][36][40] Group 2 - The letter addresses the challenges of aging and the need for careful planning regarding wealth distribution and charitable goals [60][62] - Buffett plans to accelerate donations to his children's foundations to ensure they can manage his estate effectively while they are still in their prime [63][64] - He expresses a desire for his children to continue his philanthropic legacy, emphasizing the importance of responsible wealth management [71][72] Group 3 - Buffett acknowledges the unpredictability of life and the role of luck in his longevity and success, reflecting on the advantages he has had [58][59] - The letter critiques the corporate culture surrounding executive compensation, highlighting the need for vigilance among boards of directors [78][82] - Buffett concludes with a message of gratitude and encouragement for continuous improvement, regardless of past mistakes [91][95]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - From November 2 to November 8, 2025, investment demand was weak while port throughput rebounded. Industrial production was weak, personnel flow continued to rise, freight prices increased slightly, automobile sales grew year - on - year, prices continued to rise, construction was weak, the real estate market declined, and most shipping indices went up [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, interest - rate bond indices generally declined, credit - bond indices generally rose, stock indices and commodities showed mixed performance, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. The 5 - year China Bond Treasury Index fell the most by 0.08%, the AA - China Bond Corporate Bond Index rose the most by 0.09%, the CSI 300 Index rose the most by 0.82%, the SME Board Index fell the most by 0.59%, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose the most by 0.57%, the Nanhua Black Index fell the most by 2.62%, the Japanese yen had the largest increase of 0.60%, and the US dollar appreciated by 0.13% against the RMB [1][6] 2. Industrial Production - Production performance was weak. Upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 1.80 pcts to 29.70%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.42 pcts to 83.15%, and the crude steel output decreased by 9.78%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.00 pcts to 41.30%, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.65%, and the mill operating rate decreased by 0.02 pcts to 37.18%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.15 pcts to 90.82%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.69 pcts to 77.69%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.75 pcts to 84.63%. In the automobile chain, the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.26 pcts to 73.67%, and the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 65.46% [1][9] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.68% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 4.20%, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 2.14%. Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased, while those of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.01%, with the total volume lower than the same period last year [1][25] 4. Consumption - Automobile sales increased year - on - year, and prices continued to rise. The previous period's automobile wholesale increased by 24.00% year - on - year, and retail increased by 47.00%. The 4WMA of both wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates increased. This period's movie box office decreased by 27% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 28%. Agricultural product prices rose, with pork prices increasing by 2.42% and vegetable prices increasing by 0.87% week - on - week [1][43] 5. Investment - Construction performance was weak, and the commercial housing market declined. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 3.2 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 1.69%, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 1.1%, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 5.2 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 5.9%. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 40.6%. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 3.9%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2%. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][51] 6. Export - Port throughput rebounded, and most shipping indices increased. The port cargo throughput increased by 15.7% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 13.8%. The BDI index increased by 7.02%, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.59%, and the CCFI index increased by 3.60% week - on - week [1][77]

Core Viewpoint - The "Yangtze River Delta" investment event in Qionglai City aims to showcase the city's resources and high-quality development achievements while facilitating communication and cooperation between government, enterprises, and talent in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the Qionglai Municipal Government and the Qionglai Investment Promotion Bureau, inviting nearly a hundred representatives from listed companies, specialized and innovative enterprises, and investment institutions from the Yangtze River Delta region [1]. - The event serves as a platform for government-enterprise talent exchange and supply-demand matching, highlighting Qionglai's advantages in location, ecology, industry development, and investment environment [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Qionglai Economic Development Zone and state-owned enterprises released an investment opportunity list covering sectors such as new energy, new materials, cultural tourism integration, and modern services, providing clear cooperation windows for enterprises [2]. - Investment opportunities were also promoted in specific towns, such as cultural tourism and creative development in Pingle Town, and agricultural tourism and health vacation projects in Huojing Town, leveraging local ecological and agricultural resources [2]. Group 3: Talent Attraction - The Qionglai Municipal Talent Office introduced the "Phoenix Lai Qi" talent policy system and awarded "Talent Green Cards" to Qionglai natives in the Yangtze River Delta, emphasizing the city's commitment to attracting talent and investment [2]. Group 4: Cultural Showcase - The event featured a Qionglai specialty exhibition area showcasing local products such as Qionglai wine, tea, and bamboo weaving, reflecting the blend of ancient culture and modern industry, which piqued the interest of attendees to explore Qionglai further [2].

Core Viewpoint - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index experienced fluctuations downward, while international crude oil prices declined; industrial-related data showed mixed trends in prices and supply [3] Agricultural Products - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated upward, with international crude oil prices declining; agricultural product prices generally increased [4] - Specifically, Brent crude oil decreased by $1.62 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by $1.14 per barrel; average wholesale prices for vegetables rose by 0.09 yuan per kilogram, while pork and beef prices increased by 0.43 yuan and 0.56 yuan per kilogram, respectively, but lamb prices dropped by 0.19 yuan per kilogram [5] Industrial Data - Industrial-related data showed mixed trends: the Nanhua Industrial Products Index fluctuated downward, with glass prices slightly rising and coking coal prices declining [15] - Glass futures closed up by 8 yuan per ton, while coking coal futures fell by 16 yuan per ton; the blast furnace operating rate was recorded at 83.15%, slightly up from last week and higher than the historical average [15] Real Estate Investment - Investment-related data in real estate remained weak; land transaction area in 100 major cities increased to approximately 24.89 million square meters, while commodity housing transaction area in 30 major cities rose to about 2.02 million square meters, still significantly below the historical average [24] - The index for second-hand housing listing prices declined, with the decrease rate increasing compared to the previous week; the cumulative value of completed housing area increased but remained below historical levels [24] Travel Consumption - Travel consumption data mostly increased, aligning with seasonal trends; subway passenger volumes in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose, with growth rates of 0.52%, 0.11%, 1.62%, and 1.22%, respectively [34] - Movie box office revenue slightly decreased, falling below the same period in 2024, 2023, and 2021; retail sales of passenger cars surged, exceeding historical levels, while the number of domestic flights executed slightly declined but remained above historical averages [34]

Economic Activity Changes - Economic activity has faced new pressures on both supply and demand sides since October, with a decrease in working days and high inventory levels constraining production [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with the production index declining more than new orders [2][9] - Demand pressure is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector, as companies accelerate debt repayments, which negatively impacts fixed asset investment [2][20] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Excluding low base effects, industrial profits are weaker than in previous years, with the overall cost rate at a historical high of 85.4% [3][31] - In September, industrial profits increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9% [3][31] Policy Measures to Mitigate Growth Pressure - The introduction of "incremental policies" aims to alleviate the investment squeeze caused by debt resolution, with nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy financial tools deployed by October [4][39] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to temporarily boost retail sales, while service consumption remains resilient, with a projected retail sales rebound of 3.4% in October [4][50] Export Dynamics - The U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods starting in November, which may trigger a "rush to export" phenomenon, supporting October's export figures [5][60] - October's export growth is expected to remain resilient at 7%, bolstered by a rise in processing trade imports [5][60] Monthly Data Performance - The PPI is expected to recover slightly to -2.1% in October, driven by rising prices of upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][74] - CPI is projected to rise to 0.4% year-on-year in October, supported by low base effects and resilient service consumption [6][82] Summary of Economic Outlook - Policies are actively countering internal economic pressures, with the actual GDP for October estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth [7][95] - High inventory levels and accelerated debt repayments are constraining supply and demand, but recent policy measures and easing U.S.-China tariff tensions may signal a potential economic recovery [7][95]