Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing sales growth rate continues to narrow, while second-hand housing prices rise but sales decline [1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, while wholesale sales have increased; the operating rate of semi-steel tires remains stable [1] - The tourism market shows marginal improvement, with hotel occupancy rates and revenue per available room increasing [1] Group 2: External Demand - Direct exports to the U.S. have rebounded, with container booking volumes from China to U.S. ports showing year-on-year growth [2][3] - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on European goods, which may benefit China's exports to Europe, particularly in the machinery sector [4] Group 3: Production - Weak terminal construction demand due to increased rainfall in southern regions, leading to a decline in steel prices and production [5] - Prices for PTA, polyester chips, and POY have continued to rise due to maintenance and rising oil prices, although inventory levels have slightly increased [6] Group 4: Prices - Gold prices have rebounded, while copper and crude oil prices are fluctuating within a range; domestic chemical products continue to rise, and steel prices have decreased [7] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies have supported gold prices, despite OPEC+ production increases [8] Group 5: Future Focus - Attention is directed towards corporate profit data and PMI data for further insights into economic conditions [9]

Group 1 - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament show improvement, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8% respectively [2][17] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2 - Construction industry shows mixed performance; national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates are significantly lower than last year, with year-on-year changes of 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and -0.6 percentage points to -6.9% respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3 - The real estate market continues to decline, with average daily transaction area for new homes dropping by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% respectively [2][63] Group 4 - Agricultural product prices show divergence; vegetable and egg prices have decreased by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - Industrial product prices have rebounded, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 2% [3][117]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly lower than the same period last year, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3%, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices show divergence, with the West America route continuing to rise while Southeast Asia route prices have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices falling by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% year-on-year [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly below last year's levels, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices are showing divergent trends, with the price on the West America route continuing to rise, while prices on the Southeast Asia route have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices declining by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in commodity prices, domestic demand, external demand, production, and pricing, highlighting the fluctuations in gold, copper, and oil prices, as well as the recovery in housing sales and the impact of tariff adjustments on exports [1][2][4][6]. Domestic Demand - New housing sales are improving, with a narrowing decline in growth rates, while second-hand housing and passenger car sales are decreasing. The average selling price of home appliances is rising [2]. - Service consumption has seen a marginal improvement year-on-year, despite a post-holiday decline in demand. Movie box office revenues have decreased, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [2][11]. - The retail of passenger cars is declining, while wholesale sales are increasing, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [2]. External Demand - The recent unexpected reduction in China-US tariffs has led to a rebound in direct exports to the US. The current effective tariff rate is 10%, with 24% of tariffs suspended, which may support continued export activities [2][3][12]. Production - Progress in trade negotiations has boosted market sentiment, particularly in the steel sector, where some steel mills have raised factory prices, leading to a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates and an increase in steel prices [4][5]. - In the chemical sector, prices of PTA, polyester chips, and POY have significantly rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and maintenance of production facilities [5]. Pricing - Gold prices have retreated due to the reduction in tariffs and improved global risk appetite, with expectations of short-term fluctuations. Long-term support for gold prices remains due to unsustainable US debt and the diminishing dollar system [6]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to improved economic expectations and future demand from European revitalization and post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine [6]. - Oil prices are recovering from previous lows but may face long-term pressure from global energy transitions and potential increases in US oil supply [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the CPI in April showed a month-on-month increase driven by gold, travel, and imported beef prices, the year-on-year figure remains negative for the third consecutive month, highlighting persistent demand weakness [3][4][8]. - The April CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, outperforming the seasonal average of -0.1% over the past decade, primarily due to a 10.1% rise in gold jewelry prices, a 3.9% increase in beef prices, and a 3.1% rise in travel-related costs [4][10]. - The year-on-year CPI remained at -0.1% in April, with several price categories showing weakness, including a continued decline in pork prices and stagnant or falling prices in various consumer goods and services [4][6]. Group 2 - The PPI in April saw a year-on-year decline from -2.5% to -2.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [5][6]. - A total of 22 out of 30 categories in the PPI showed no month-on-month growth, indicating widespread price weakness across industries [6][7]. - The article notes that the decline in international oil prices, influenced by tariffs and global economic conditions, has led to decreased prices in domestic oil and gas extraction and processing [7]. Group 3 - The article emphasizes that improving domestic demand is crucial for restoring price levels, as the central bank continues to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery through monetary policy [9][8]. - The transition to a demand-driven growth model is highlighted as essential, with a call for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and social policies to expand effective demand, particularly in consumption [9][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and a significant increase in human mobility and travel intensity, indicating a mixed economic recovery trend. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [2][5] - The chemical sector shows marginal improvement, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [2][13] - However, the automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with semi-steel tire operating rates dropping by 11.3 percentage points to 17.9% [2][13] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to 5% and 3.8% to 6.3% respectively [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates, however, have increased year-on-year by 7% to 2% [2][21] Group 3: Demand Trends - There is a notable recovery in housing transactions, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8% [2][29] - Port cargo throughput has significantly improved, rising by 10.4% year-on-year to 4.2%, while container throughput increased by 2.5% to 2.9% [2][32] - Human mobility has surged, with the migration index increasing by 50.5% year-on-year to 51.4% [2][34] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][46] - The South China industrial product price index decreased by 0.7%, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 0.4% [2][49]

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 原油上升，金、铜震荡上行。 内需： 房、车销售回升，假期出游热电影淡。 ① 新房、乘用车销量增速升，二手房降，家电销售均价增速上行。5月新房销量增速降幅收窄，但二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售、批发增速均有 回升，但受成本抬升，需求预期悲观等因素影响，半钢胎开工率超季节性回落；家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。五一假期家电价格多有回升。 ② 假期出游热度高涨，假期国内出游人次同比增长6.4%，出游总花费同比增长8.0%，纳入监测范围的国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量7595.44万 人次，同比增长5.2%。 不过，电影市场表现惨淡，五一档票房收入不到7.5亿元，同比去年同期下降45.9%。 外需： 对美出口量继续下行，但抢转口仍有支撑。 ① 港口高频数据显示，美国总进口、自中国进口货物到港量增速均大幅下滑，指向对美出口量有所减少。而东南亚地区港口停靠量大幅上升，反映抢转口仍在继 续。 ②美国正式对全球关键汽车零部件加征25%的关税，中美经贸谈判将于周末开始，关注会后通报结果。 生产： 节后库存阶段性累积，开工有所放缓。 ① 受部分钢厂铁水转移和检修减产影响 ...

很多观点认为关税将导致日本经济增长率放缓。也有日银相关人士认为，中美相互征收高关税将 导致全球经济减速的"间接影响更大"。 经济的下行将成为拉低物价的主要原因，另一方面，如果发生供应链的混乱和重建，反而会推动 物价上涨。 日银内部也有不少观点认为，长期存在的劳动力短缺将推动加薪，2026年春季劳资谈判也将维持 高水平加薪。 日银总裁植田和男 政策利率将维持在0.5%。日银认为，美国特朗普政府的关税政策本身及其对经济产生的影响难以 预测，不确定性高，因此将观察动向…… 日本银行（央行）将于4月30日和5月1日举行货币政策会议。政策利率将维持在0.5%。日银认 为，美国特朗普政府的关税政策本身及其对经济产生的影响难以预测，不确定性高，因此将观察 动向。预计2025年度以后的实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长率也将下调。 5月1日的会议结束后，日银将公布每3个月更新一次的《经济和物价形势展望》（展望报告）。 截至1月，从实际GDP的展望（9位政策委员的中间值）来看, 2025年度为同比增长1.1%，2026 年度为增长1.0%。从消费者物价指数（CPI/生鲜食品除外）的涨幅来看,2025年度为2.4%，2026 年度为 ...

外需： 4月出口或回落，关税不确定性对出口仍有支撑。 ①关税对外需影响初步显现，4月韩国前20天出口增速回落，我国集装箱吞吐量等出口数量指标有所下行。但考虑到关税不确定性仍在，部分转口贸易或仍带来抢 出口需求，将对外需有一定支撑。 核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 金、铜震荡上升，原油区间震荡。 内需： 房销售走弱、车持平上月，室外出游热度较高。 ①房销售走弱、车持平上月，家电销售均价同比增速跌多涨少。4月新房销量增速降幅走扩，二手房价升量减。商品消费中，乘用车零售增速持平上月，批发有所 回升，受市场需求疲软影响，轮胎企业调整生产计划，导致半钢胎开工回落；本周家电价格多有上行。 ② 本周商圈人流指数和上海迪士尼乐园客流上升，一线城市至海口的航班均价转为上行。不过，电影市场表现仍旧惨淡，持续位于历年同期低位。五一假期临近， 建议关注假期消费情况。 生产： 产能调控需加强，传统基建有望加速恢复。 ①由于4月以来多地错峰生产执行力度减弱，竞争加剧，本周水泥价格续降，企业库容比续升，终端需求暂弱，本周水泥发运率继续回落。 ②本周石油沥青开工率继续上行，同比回正，样本建筑工地资金到位率续升，同时水泥基建直供量超过去年 ...