热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 分析师： 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 投资要点： 2025年生猪市场处于去产能周期，全年商品猪出栏均价14元/kg，上半年猪价稳定、养殖利润尚 可，下半年起受前期产能释放、消费疲软影响，猪价加速下跌，11月跌至11.67元/kg，养殖端普遍 亏损；期货市场受基差修复、政策调控等因素影响，呈现阶段性波动，年底逐步企稳。 2026年生猪产业处于第6轮猪周期去产能后期，供应端能繁母猪存栏将继续探底至合理区间，上半 年出栏压力显著，下半年随产能去化效果显现压力缓解；需求端季节性特征延续，餐饮消费恢复 形成支撑，替代品分流作用边际递减；成本端因养殖技术优化、生产效率提升进一步下移，全年 规模场自繁自养平均成本约12元/kg。在此背景下，2026年猪价中枢将温和上移，呈"三段式"波 动：1-3月年初探底，1月达全年低谷（11-11.5元/kg）；4-9月年中回升，7-9月受产能去化与中秋 备货驱动偏强（12.5-13.5元）/kg）；1 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs - **Neutral (★☆☆)**: Eggs [1] - **Unclear (White Star)**: Domestic Soybeans [1] 2. Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand balance and inventory levels. Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Domestic Soybeans - The main contract of domestic soybeans is relatively strong. The auction price is slightly lower than the previous two times but still firm, and the spot purchase price has increased. South American new - season soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, with improved weather in Brazil and Argentina [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to drop to about 1.8 million tons, with reduced soybean meal output. The downstream feed demand is weak, and the end - of - month inventory may remain high at about 1 million tons. The trading logic focuses on concerns about US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. The price of soybean meal will oscillate at the bottom following US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the main contracts of domestic soybean and palm oil reduced positions, and prices rebounded. South American new - season soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and domestic soybean crushing volume remains high. There are concerns about the customs clearance rhythm of domestic soybeans. Malaysian palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and the short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market rebounded slightly today. Due to the delay in Australian seed crushing, the inventory of coastal rapeseed oil mills remains low. The EU slightly adjusted the rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet. The rapeseed futures price is under medium - term pressure but lacks short - term driving forces, so it is recommended to wait and see [6] Corn - The main corn futures contract C2603 opened high and closed low, down 0.31%. The spot price in Northeast and North ports is strong. The resumption of low - price old wheat auctions in early 2026 may suppress corn prices. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high, and the Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] Live Hogs - The main live hog 03 contract continued to rise and hit a new high, but other contracts did not break through yesterday's high. Some provinces started second - fattening replenishment in late December. Short - term spot prices may remain strong, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year, so it is recommended to short on rallies for the 03 contract [8] Eggs - Egg futures adjusted weakly with a small reduction in positions. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation, showing an oversupply situation. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, while the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be stronger. The second - half - year peak - season contracts have high premiums, and the trading rhythm may be volatile [9]

未来，在非洲猪瘟等重大疫病的区域净化、种猪遗传改良的"卡脖子"技术突破、养殖废弃物资源化利用 的前沿探索等方面，两大巨头均有潜力开展更具实质性的联合研发或数据共享，从而降低整个行业的系 统性风险，提升中国生猪产业的核心竞争力。 生猪养殖行业龙头企业多年来不断向外透露出共赢发展的理念。 作为生猪养殖行业的两大巨头，牧原股份与温氏股份近年来在生产规模及养殖技术等方面实现大幅提 升，成为行业践行高质量发展的典范。 2025年接近尾声之际，12月26日至27日，温氏股份副总裁张祥斌一行到访牧原股份，双方团队在种猪与 健康管理、饲料营养、猪场设计与环保等方面坦诚交流分享，在经验互学互鉴中实现了共同提升。 在生猪行业当前大力践行"反内卷"的背景下，此番两家龙头企业的深入交流，无疑传递出了养殖企业正 从过往以规模扩张和价格竞争为主导的"内卷"泥潭中抽身，积极探索以开放协同、技术共享、生态共建 为特征的"竞合"新路径，为破局"猪周期"困局、构筑长期健康发展的产业新生态提供了关键范本。 据了解，本次交流中双方已凝聚了一个关键共识，即生猪养殖行业当下的核心矛盾已非简单的市场份额 之争，而是如何共同应对生产效率瓶颈、资源环境约束与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural and livestock sector, represented by pig farming, continues to rise, with the highest "pig content" agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price increase of 0.71% as of December 29 [1][11]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened with a slight dip but then rose, with a current price of 0.996, reflecting a gain of 0.007 [2][12]. - Key stocks in the sector include Muyuan Foods, which surged over 5%, and other companies like Brother Technology, Wens Foodstuff, and several others showing gains of over 1% [1][11]. Industry Trends - Data from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Agriculture indicates a 2.10% month-on-month decrease in the number of breeding sows as of November 2025, marking four consecutive months of decline [4][12]. - The pig farming industry is entering a regulatory phase, with authorities reducing production capacity to control pig prices, which are under downward pressure due to increased slaughter volumes and large pig inventories [3][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the supply-demand dynamics in the pig farming sector will improve, with ongoing supply pressures expected to ease by the second half of 2026 [3][14]. - The agricultural and livestock sector is currently valued at a relatively low level, presenting a good opportunity for long-term investment [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The agricultural ETF (159275) is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, tracking the CSI Agricultural and Livestock Index, which includes leading companies in pig farming and related sectors [5][15]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading pig farming companies, which are expected to recover in valuation as the market stabilizes [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry in China is facing a challenging environment in 2025, characterized by supply-demand imbalance, declining prices, and expanding losses, leading to a significant restructuring of the industry [1] Industry Status: Supply High and Losses Widen - In 2025, the overall supply of pigs remains high, exacerbating market supply-demand conflicts, with a total pig output of 530 million heads in the first three quarters, a slight increase of 1.85% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the national pig inventory reached 43.68 million heads, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The core issue of high supply is that the breeding sow inventory remains above the reasonable level, with 40.35 million heads as of September 2025, exceeding the reasonable holding level by 3.5% [2] - The oversupply has led to a downward trend in pig prices, which fell from 15-16 CNY/kg at the beginning of the year to around 11-12 CNY/kg in Q4 2025 [2] - The decline in prices has pushed farming profitability into the loss zone, with average losses per head reaching 122 CNY by November 2025 [3] Impact on Farmers and Enterprises - The widening losses are straining the cash flow of small and medium-sized farmers, while some leading listed companies are responding by cutting capital expenditures and reducing sow inventories [6] - The price of piglets has significantly dropped, with 7 kg piglets selling for 209 CNY/head, well below production costs [6] Policy and Market Dynamics Driving Capacity Reduction - The continuous decline in pig prices has led to widespread losses in the industry, but 2026 may bring a turning point due to the combined effects of policy and market forces [8] - Policy measures are becoming a key driver for capacity reduction, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizing "anti-involution" and capacity control [8] - Leading enterprises are proactively reducing production capacity by halting new pig farm constructions and culling inefficient sows [8] - Market forces are also compelling capacity reduction, as the willingness of farmers to replenish stock has dropped significantly, with a 1.1% month-on-month decrease in sow inventory in October 2025 [9] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, when both piglet and fat pig prices are low, capacity reduction accelerates, and the current conditions meet this criterion [12] - The industry is experiencing significant cost differentiation, with leading companies achieving lower production costs compared to smaller firms, which is driving further industry concentration [12] - By 2026, the industry may see a new cycle beginning, with supply pressures easing and potential price increases anticipated in the latter half of the year [13] - The current phase of losses and peak capacity typically indicates the establishment of an upward trend for the sector, suggesting investment opportunities as valuations remain low [14]

2025年，我国生猪养殖行业在供需失衡、价格低迷和亏损扩大的困境中持续磨底。然而，政策引导与市 场力量正共同倒逼产能加速去化，行业格局面临深刻重塑，而生猪养殖企业也正面临行业周期底部和估 值底部的双重局面。 供给量总体维持高位 2025年，生猪供给量总体维持高位，加剧了市场供需矛盾。根据农业农村部数据，2025年前三季度全国 生猪出栏量达5.30亿头，同比小幅增长1.85%，处于近五年同期次高水平（仅低于2023年）。2025年三 季度末，全国生猪存栏43680万头，同比增加986万头，增长2.3%，环比增加1233万头，增长2.9%。 生猪产能高位震荡的核心在于能繁母猪存栏量仍高于合理水平。广发证券研报数据显示，截至2025年9 月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量为4035万头，较3900万头的合理保有量仍高出3.5%，供给压力尚未缓解。 供给过剩导致猪价全年震荡下行。申万宏源证券（000562）研报显示，本轮猪周期自2024年三季度见顶 后开始下行，2025年全年猪价震荡向下，猪价自年初的15元~16元/千克跌至四季度的11元~12元/千克左 右。 随着猪价跌破成本线，养殖行业转入亏损区间。申万宏源证券研报显示，本 ...

Core Insights - The demand for pork is increasing as the Southern region enters the curing season, with traditional consumption peaks during New Year and Spring Festival, yet pork prices remain low [1] - The average price of live pigs is between 5.5 to 6 yuan per jin, which is below the cost line, while prices for other meats and vegetables are rising [1] - The wholesale price of pork has decreased by 23.7% year-on-year, contrasting with price increases for beef, lamb, chicken, and vegetables [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The warm winter in the Southern region has led to a dispersed demand for cured and sausage products, and the late timing of the Spring Festival has further spread out the demand for pork [1] - High levels of breeding sows from last year's fourth quarter have resulted in an abundant supply of market pigs, particularly during the fourth quarter, leading to a low price fluctuation for pork [1] Market Dynamics - Many small-scale pig farmers are exiting the market, with reports indicating a significant reduction in the number of small pig farms [1] - Despite the exit of small farmers, the代养 (substitute breeding) model is gaining popularity, allowing farmers to raise pigs for large enterprises without market risk [1][2] - The代养 model is leading to increased production capacity and output of pigs, which is affecting pork price trends [2] Industry Trends - Large breeding companies are aggressively expanding into new markets, increasing competition among pig farmers [2] - The scale of代养 operations is growing, with higher entry requirements for farmers, indicating a shift towards larger operations [2] - Industry experts suggest that cost control is essential for farmers to navigate the current downturn in pork prices, with production costs varying significantly among different farms [2]

Summary of Shennong Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennong Group - **Industry**: Pig Farming Key Points and Arguments Production and Cost Targets - **Expected Output**: Shennong Group anticipates a production volume of 3.5 million pigs in 2025, with a focus on controlling total costs below 12 CNY/kg, aiming for 11.5 CNY/kg [2][6] - **Regional Focus**: The majority of output will be concentrated in Yunnan and the Guangxi and Guangdong regions, with an expected output of nearly 1 million pigs from these areas [2][7] Cost Management Strategies - **Cost Reduction Measures**: The company plans to lower farming costs through several strategies: - Improving PSY (Pigs Weaned per Sow per Year) to 30.3 heads, with a target of over 30 heads next year - Maintaining a feed-to-meat ratio around 2.45 - Achieving a survival rate exceeding 85% - Stabilizing weaning costs at approximately 270 CNY [2][4][9][8] Market Conditions and Price Forecast - **Current Market Trends**: The overall trend for pig prices is declining after a profitable period of about 18 months, with farmers experiencing losses for about a quarter [3] - **Future Price Expectations**: The average pig price for 2026 is expected to be weaker than in 2025, ranging between 12 to 13 CNY/kg, with no significant price rebound anticipated in the first half of the year [15] Production Indicators - **Key Production Metrics**: As of November, the total cost was 12 CNY/kg, with a weaning cost of 269 CNY per head and a PSY of 30.3 heads [4][8] Dependency on Contract Farming - **Contract Farming Model**: Currently, about 70% of production is through contract farming, with plans to increase this to 80% or even 90%. There are no plans for new self-built capacity [5][16] Financial Performance of Other Segments - **Other Business Segments**: - Feed sales have decreased, yielding only slight profits - Slaughtering operations generate annual profits in the tens of millions - The deep processing segment is currently in a strategic loss phase but aims for breakeven within five years [20] Disease Control and Impact - **Disease Management**: The company has maintained stable disease control, with minimal impact from African swine fever and blue ear disease on production [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Dividend Policy - **Capital Expenditure**: The budget for capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to remain stable without significant fluctuations [18] - **Dividend Policy**: Dividends will be considered annually based on operational performance, ensuring funds are available for shareholder needs [19] Regional Cost Differences - **Cost Variations**: There are minor differences in farming costs across regions, with the best facilities achieving costs below 11.5 CNY/kg, while average facilities maintain around 12 CNY/kg [11] Raw Material Price Considerations - **Cost Targets and Raw Materials**: The cost targets for 2026 are based on raw material prices remaining stable compared to 2025, with adjustments made if prices fluctuate significantly [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual phenomenon of vegetable prices being higher than pork prices in China, exploring the reasons behind this trend and its implications for consumers' dietary habits and daily lives [3][10]. Group 1: Vegetable Price Surge - Vegetable prices have significantly increased this winter, with common vegetables like cabbage and tomatoes seeing price hikes. For instance, cabbage prices have risen from 1.37 yuan per kilogram last year to 2.38 yuan per kilogram this year, effectively doubling [12][15]. - The price of tomatoes has reached 8-9 yuan per kilogram, making them more expensive than eggs, which are now the main ingredient in dishes like tomato scrambled eggs [3][9]. - The "vegetable basket" price index rose to 127.65 in November, with a month-on-month increase of 6.17 points and a year-on-year increase of 3.55 points [16]. Group 2: Factors Behind Price Increases - Adverse weather conditions, including multiple cold waves in northern China and continuous rainy weather in southern regions, have severely impacted vegetable supply, leading to higher prices [18][21]. - The supply chain disruption has resulted in a mismatch between supply and demand, causing a scarcity of vegetables in the market [21][36]. Group 3: Pork Price Decline - In contrast to vegetables, pork prices have been on a downward trend, with prices dropping by 27% year-on-year. For example, the average price of pork was 11.81 yuan per kilogram in December, continuing a five-week decline [24][26]. - The oversupply of pork is attributed to increased production capacity from pig farmers, leading to a market surplus [26][28]. Group 4: Changing Consumer Behavior - Despite the drop in pork prices, the demand for beef and lamb has remained strong, with beef prices increasing by 8.5% year-on-year. This shift is linked to changing health perceptions among consumers, who are increasingly opting for leaner protein sources [30][32]. - The article highlights a growing awareness of health issues related to diet, with many consumers now prioritizing vegetables and healthier protein options over traditional meat consumption [34][36].

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]