Core Viewpoint - The company Muyuan Foods is pursuing a listing in Hong Kong to raise funds for expanding its overseas business, aiming to mitigate the impacts of the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods, a leading player in the pig farming industry, has a market capitalization of 220.914 billion RMB and has been listed in A-shares for 11 years [4]. - The company’s performance is closely tied to the fluctuations in pork prices, with significant revenue and profit changes corresponding to these price movements [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 137.947 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17.881 billion RMB, reflecting a staggering growth of 519.42% compared to the previous year [7]. - The company’s net profit has seen significant volatility, dropping from 27.451 billion RMB in 2020 to a loss of 4.263 billion RMB in 2023, before rebounding in 2024 [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig farming industry is characterized by cyclical trends influenced by supply-demand dynamics, disease risks, and policy regulations, making it challenging for companies to predict and manage profitability [8][9]. - The recent downturn in pork prices, which fell to 24.32 RMB per kilogram in 2023 from 50.09 RMB per kilogram in 2019, has prompted Muyuan Foods to seek international expansion as a new growth avenue [5][8]. Group 4: Debt and Liquidity - As of April 30, the company had short-term borrowings of 49.08 billion RMB and non-current liabilities due within a year of 10.178 billion RMB, with cash reserves of 22.029 billion RMB [10][11]. - The company’s debt levels have increased significantly, with short-term debt rising from 5.566 billion RMB in 2019 to 59.258 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a growing financial burden [11][12]. Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Muyuan Foods is establishing a subsidiary in Vietnam to tap into the Southeast Asian market, focusing on the urgent needs for disease prevention and farm upgrades in the region [9][10]. - The company aims to enhance its overseas supply chain and build international industry centers with the funds raised from the Hong Kong listing [4][10].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is currently under pressure, with the average pig price showing a decline in several key provinces [1] - The average price of pork is 20.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets remains stable at 28.00 yuan/kg [1] - The self-breeding profit stands at 48.21 yuan per head, while the profit from purchasing piglets is negative at -16.06 yuan per head, indicating challenges in the market [1] Group 2 - The feed industry is expected to see a recovery in its business environment due to falling raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector, with Hai Da Group positioned for potential growth [2] - The current cycle in the pig farming industry is characterized by a focus on reducing debt rather than rapidly increasing production capacity, with expectations for profitability to begin in Q2 2024 [2] - The market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, potentially overlooking the positive effects of declining raw material costs and anticipated demand recovery in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The poultry industry, particularly the meat chicken sector, may experience performance improvements driven by new demand in 2025, with Saint Agriculture positioned at the bottom of its performance and valuation cycle [3] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be crucial for pet food brands, with a focus on brands that can lead market trends and show profit improvements, recommending domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock sector is experiencing a rebound, with the livestock ETF (159865) showing a slight increase and over 250 million net inflow in the past five days. The optimism in the industry is driven by improving performance of listed pig companies due to the recovery of the pig market last year [1][2]. Industry Supply - The near three-year capacity clearance is the foundation for the expected rise in pig prices in 2024. However, the capacity reduction rhythm may show fluctuations in the second half of 2024, with recent data indicating a return to a downward trend [2]. - As of April 2024, the number of breeding sows is reported at 39.86 million, a decrease of approximately 10% from the peak of 43.90 million in June 2021. By March 2025, the breeding sow inventory is expected to decline to 40.39 million, indicating a re-entry into the capacity reduction phase [2]. Cost Control - Significant cost optimization efforts by pig farming companies have provided support for performance improvement within the industry. Even with potential fluctuations in pig price cycles, leading pig companies are expected to maintain a certain profit margin [2]. - If pig prices begin to rise again, companies may benefit from the widening "scissors gap" between rising prices and declining costs, potentially leading to overall profitability exceeding market expectations [2].

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 站在当下，猪价的拐点言之尚早，但不可否认的是，处在底部区域的养殖ETF（159865）仍值得大 家关注。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过养殖ETF的联接基金（012725）把握养殖板块的投资机会。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金 业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 近期，养殖板块持续活跃，相关ETF——养殖ETF（159865）迎资金加持，近5日净流入额超2.5亿 元。今日开盘，养殖逆势上涨，养殖ETF（159865）涨超0.5%。 相关机构表示，公司业绩方面，随着去年生猪市场行情回暖，上市猪企业绩逐步改善，行业乐观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The succession issue at leading pig farming company Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) has garnered attention as founder Qin Yinglin discusses the company's internationalization strategy and the performance of the next-generation management team during the 2024 annual shareholder meeting. The company has recently emerged from a prolonged low cycle in the pig market, achieving a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 24.43% year-on-year increase [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Growth and Performance - Muyuan Foods has experienced a remarkable revenue growth of approximately 52 times over the past decade, with 2024 revenue reaching 137.947 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company has successfully reduced its pig farming costs, achieving a cost of 12.4 yuan per kilogram in April 2025, with a target of 12 yuan per kilogram for the entire year [6]. - In 2022, Muyuan Foods saw a significant net profit increase of 92.16%, recovering to 13.266 billion yuan after a challenging period in 2021 when net profit dropped by 74.85% [5][6]. Group 2: Succession and Management - Qin Yinglin has established a succession plan, training a second-generation management team with an average age of under 35, composed of business veterans who have grown from the grassroots level [7][8]. - Qin Yinglin's son, Qin Muyuan, is responsible for the meat processing segment and has articulated the development strategy for this sector during the shareholder meeting [7]. Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - Muyuan Foods is advancing its internationalization strategy, including plans for a Hong Kong stock listing to create an international capital operation platform [6]. - The company aims to address the urgent needs of pig farming operators in Southeast Asia regarding disease control and facility upgrades, which presents opportunities for overseas business expansion [6].

Group 1: Business Performance - In 2024, the company's feed business sales volume increased by 0.87%, while the pig farming business saw a 7.55% increase in annual output, reaching 3.0285 million pigs [2][3] - The average selling price of pigs increased by 10.5% compared to the previous year, leading to a higher revenue share from pig farming [2][3] - The company plans to sell 2.9 million tons of feed and aims for a pig output of 3.5 to 4 million heads in 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Research and Development - The company has obtained 28 national new veterinary drug certificates, focusing on improving pig breeding quality and feed formulation [3][5] - Significant R&D achievements include the development of a gene-engineered inactivated vaccine for swine fever, which is a first in the country [5][6] - The company is committed to enhancing its competitive edge through continuous R&D investments in core business areas [3][5] Group 3: Future Growth Strategies - The company plans to expand its feed, pig farming, and agricultural product businesses, leveraging its strategic location to explore markets in Central Asia [3][4] - Future growth will also involve potential mergers and acquisitions based on market conditions [4][6] - The company aims to diversify its business by exploring related fields such as pet feed and vaccines [7][9] Group 4: Financial Goals and Market Position - The company's operational targets for 2025 include a total revenue of 21 billion yuan, with specific goals for feed production, animal vaccines, and corn storage [7][9] - The company has opened over 70 direct sales stores and counters in the northwest and north China regions [11][12] - The company is focused on improving its market value through enhanced governance and investor communication [12][13]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 23.13 points, a decrease of 0.68%, ending at 3380.82 points, with a trading volume of 461.29 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 167.77 points, down 1.62%, closing at 10186.45 points, with a trading volume of 691.11 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 39.89 points, a drop of 1.91%, closing at 2043.25 points, with a trading volume of 315.82 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was less than 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 160 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Industry Performance - The breeding sector saw a significant rise, with the breeding ETF (159865) reaching a peak increase of 0.7% during the day and closing up 0.34% [2] - The breeding ETF has attracted considerable capital attention recently, recording inflows over the past five days [2] - The optimism in the industry is supported by improved performance of listed pig companies due to the recovery of the pig market last year [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a near three-year capacity clearance, which is the foundation for the expected rise in pig prices in 2024 [6] - As of April 2024, the number of breeding sows was 39.86 million, a decrease of about 10% from the peak of 43.90 million in June 2021 [6] - The demand side remains relatively inelastic, while the supply side shows greater elasticity [6] Cost Control and Profitability - Cost optimization in pig farming companies has significantly improved, providing support for performance recovery [7] - The average cost for leading pig farming company Muyuan Foods has dropped to approximately 13 yuan per kilogram [7] - The recovery of profit margins is expected to enhance the asset-liability structure of companies in the industry, increasing resilience during the cyclical downturn [4] Future Outlook - Although it is too early to declare a turning point for pig prices, the breeding ETF (159865) remains worthy of attention as it is at a low point [5] - If pig prices begin to rise again, companies are likely to benefit from the widening "scissors difference" between rising prices and falling costs, potentially exceeding market profit expectations [5]

Group 1: Livestock and Pet Food Industry - The livestock sector is experiencing a supply contraction due to capacity reduction, leading to improved profitability for leading companies like Muyuan Foods, which benefit from scale and efficiency during the new pig cycle [1] - The white feather chicken market faced weak supply and demand, but companies like Shennong Development achieved significant profit reversals in Q1 2025 due to falling feed prices and improved farming efficiency [1] - The core driver of profitability in the livestock sector is the substantial improvement in unit costs, making chicken companies with cost control and channel advantages more attractive for investment [1] - The pet food sector is expected to see both revenue and profit growth in 2024, with profits increasing by 77.8%, driven by lower raw material prices, rapid growth in proprietary brand sales, and steady growth in overseas OEM business [1] - In Q1 2025, the pet food sector remains highly prosperous, but there is significant differentiation among companies; brands like Zhongchong and Guibao are experiencing rapid profit growth, while Petty Holdings faces profit declines due to tariff policy changes and initial investments in new capacity [1] - The seed industry is under pressure, with profits expected to decline by over 50% year-on-year in 2024, and continuing to face challenges in Q1 2025 with an 82.4% year-on-year profit drop [1] - The animal health industry is facing intense competition but is expected to see a rebound in vaccine sales and core product profits starting in Q1 2025, with a projected year-on-year profit increase of 28% [1] - Investment focus should be on leading vaccine companies with stable customer bases and comprehensive product lines, as they are likely to benefit first from downstream recovery and achieve profit restoration [1] Group 2: Medical Aesthetics and Regulatory Environment - The competition in the medical aesthetics sector is intensifying as companies rush to apply for Class III medical device certifications, with certified products expected to become the primary procurement source for downstream institutions [3] - Companies that have obtained Class III certifications and possess industrialization capabilities, such as Haohai Biological and Huaxi Biological, are recommended for their technological barriers and channel synergy advantages, which may lead to rapid profit release during the initial product rollout [3] Group 3: Corporate Restructuring and Market Strategy - Runtian Industrial's plan to "shell" ST United is seen as a strategic move to navigate the current strict IPO review environment, leveraging its profitable consumer assets to enhance the quality and sustainability of the listed company [3] - ST United has been facing continuous losses and cash flow deterioration, with a projected net loss of 63.7 million yuan in 2024, and is under pressure from potential delisting due to ongoing losses and information disclosure violations [3] - Investors are advised to pay close attention to the specific terms of the transaction, including pricing, valuation levels, and profit guarantees, to avoid potential overvaluation or capital manipulation [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Innovation and Market Impact - China Antibody Pharmaceutical's recent placement of new shares at an 11% discount aims to raise 124 million HKD, primarily for the development and international collaboration of its innovative drug SM17, indicating the company's strong focus on this project's clinical advancement and commercial potential [4] - SM17 is a first-in-class drug targeting the IL-25 receptor for treating atopic dermatitis, positioned in a rapidly growing market with significant potential for success [4] - The global market for atopic dermatitis patients exceeds 230 million, with over 70 million in China, and if successful, SM17 could rank among the top treatments in this category [4] - Recent acquisitions by major pharmaceutical companies in the early-stage AD candidate market suggest that SM17 could attract interest for cross-border licensing or acquisition if it demonstrates strong data in Phase II trials [4] - The funding allocation for SM17's clinical advancement and international collaboration is set at 45%, with additional funds aimed at expanding the product pipeline and ensuring operational safety [4] Group 5: Impact of U.S. Drug Pricing Policies on Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies - The U.S. administration's recent executive order aims to tie drug prices to the lowest prices in other developed countries, which may indirectly affect Chinese biopharmaceutical companies by creating opportunities for them to enter international markets [5] - While U.S. innovative drug companies may face long-term gross margin pressures due to this pricing policy, Chinese companies with cost advantages could benefit from increased market access [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual transition of the pig cycle into a reasonable upward phase, driven by the initial effects of capacity reduction and limited short-term expansion capabilities in the industry [2][21][24]. Core Insights - The Chinese pig farming industry has experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as African swine fever and policy-driven changes, leading to an increase in industry concentration but still remaining at a low level [4][21]. - The market demand for pork remains rigid, closely tied to the living standards of urban and rural residents, with the market size of the pig farming industry reaching 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4][5]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand mismatch in the pig market leads to cyclical price fluctuations, with each cycle typically lasting around four years [5][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The concentration of pig farming in China has increased due to policy and environmental factors, yet it remains low, resulting in significant cyclical volatility [4]. - Pork is the primary meat source for Chinese residents, with the pig farming sector accounting for over 50% of the livestock industry's output and value [4]. Pig Production and Output Analysis - The breeding sow inventory has fluctuated since mid-2021, with a reasonable level reached by early 2025, while pig output has shown a downward trend in 2024 [5][8]. - The report notes that the breeding sow inventory is a leading indicator for future pig output, influencing supply over the next 10-12 months [5][22]. Industry Supply Chain and Price Trends - The pig farming sector is heavily influenced by feed prices, which have seen fluctuations due to global supply dynamics [9][10]. - The average wholesale price of pork was reported at 20.85 yuan/kg in early 2025, indicating a downward trend compared to the previous year [15][22]. Industry Policies - The government has implemented policies to optimize pig production capacity management, aiming to stabilize pork prices and reduce cyclical volatility [17][18]. - Recent adjustments to the breeding sow inventory targets reflect improvements in production efficiency and aim to maintain market stability [18][21]. Future Development - The report anticipates that the pig cycle will gradually stabilize as the proportion of large-scale farming enterprises increases, leading to reduced volatility in the market [21][24]. - Challenges remain for pig farming enterprises, including cost control related to raw materials and disease management, which will continue to impact profitability [21][24].

2025/5/12 1 图：生猪养殖周期示意图 图：猪价指引产能导致周期往复 2 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 • 生产特性：生猪的生长速度无法加快，从能繁母猪配种开始生产需要10个月的时间，通过后备时间更长；而市面上 补充后备母猪为50-80KG，需要饲养至120KG以上才可以开始配种，猪价指导生产，盈利增产/亏损减产，现今亦然 如此而养殖户在决策上存在一定的时滞性， • 时滞性的来源： • 1.对后市的预期（预期乐观⬆/悲观⬇） • 2.养殖户手中的资金(宽松⬆/紧张⬇) • 以上特点使得盈利情况指引未来产能方向，亏损时间越长产能去化越充分，非瘟前每一轮周期上行多在2年左右。 图：生猪繁育体系示意图 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 3 图：历史猪周期总结（元/公斤） | | 周期跨度 | 上行区间 | 下行区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 最高价 | 最低价 | 波动幅度 | | 第一轮 | 2006/5-2010/4 | 2006/5-2008/3 | 2008/4-2010/4 | 17.45 | 6.76 ...