Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal revenue in China has shown stability and growth in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a positive economic trend, with tax revenue growth turning from negative to positive for the first time this year [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - National general public budget revenue reached 148198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [2]. - National tax revenue totaled 121085 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02%, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue this year [2]. - The four major tax categories (domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax) all maintained growth in the first eight months [2]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, the largest tax source, generated approximately 47000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2]. - Corporate income tax, the second-largest source, amounted to about 32000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, indicating a potential improvement in corporate profitability [2]. - Domestic consumption tax generated around 12000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [2]. - Individual income tax reached approximately 11000 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 8.9%, attributed to rising property income among certain demographics [2]. Group 3: Non-Tax Revenue and Government Fund Income - Non-tax revenue for the first eight months was 27113 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth rate of 11.7% [3]. - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was 26449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with land use rights transfer income at 19263 billion yuan, down 4.7% [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure and Debt Financing - National general public budget expenditure reached 179324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with a focus on social welfare and employment, education, and health care [6]. - Social security and employment expenditure exceeded 30000 billion yuan, growing by 10% year-on-year [6]. - Government bond net financing for the first eight months was 102700 billion yuan, an increase of 46300 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting a more proactive fiscal policy [6].

Group 1: Economic Support and Fiscal Performance - In the first half of 2025, broad fiscal expenditure growth reached 8.9%, significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth of 4.3% and the average annual growth of 1-3% since 2022[1] - By June 2025, the broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap was -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest for the same period historically, indicating strong support from government bonds and special bonds[1] - Social security and employment expenditures increased by 9.2% year-on-year, while scientific and technological expenditures rose by 9.1%, reflecting a focus on industry upgrades and consumer welfare[2] Group 2: Future Fiscal Strategies and Challenges - If economic pressure increases in the second half of 2025, there may be a need for fiscal stimulus, especially to meet the annual GDP growth target of around 5%[3] - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap in July was -5.6 trillion yuan, indicating a slight increase of only 0.4 trillion yuan from June, suggesting a potential slowdown in fiscal support[3] - The issuance of new government debt is nearing its limit, which may hinder the ability to maintain high growth rates in fiscal expenditure moving forward[3] Group 3: Key Areas of Fiscal Support - The fiscal policy is increasingly focused on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection, with significant attention on resolving hidden debt issues[5] - The government has allocated approximately 900 billion yuan for child-rearing subsidies, with central government covering about 90% of this amount[5] - Emerging industries such as marine economy, artificial intelligence, and commercial aerospace are identified as key areas for future policy support[5]

Group 1 - Since April, Japan's exports to the U.S. have been declining for five consecutive months due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1] - In August, Japan's overall trade deficit was 242.5 billion yen, a decrease of 65.9% year-on-year, with exports slightly down by 0.1% to 8.43 trillion yen [1] - Japan's exports to the U.S. in August fell by 13.8% year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yen (approximately 9.5 billion USD), marking an increase in the decline rate compared to July's 10% [1] Group 2 - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. shrank by 50.5% in August to 324 billion yen, primarily due to a 28.4% drop in automobile exports [3] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15%, down from a previous rate of 25%, but this is still significantly higher than the pre-April rate of around 2.5% [4] - The analysis from Bloomberg Economics indicates that the 15% tariff level will still impact Japan's exports negatively in the future [5] Group 3 - Japan's strong economic performance in Q2 was supported by domestic demand, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.0%, surpassing expectations [6] - However, there are concerns that upward revisions in private inventories may pressure economic growth in Q3, with a potential for negative growth [6] - Predictions suggest that the U.S. tariff policies could lead to a nearly 25% decline in Japan's exports to the U.S., threatening 0.5% of Japan's GDP [6]

as we're about the midpoint of the day, but we have this very important Fed meeting. We all think we know what's going to happen. Jim, you and I were just talking before the show about the backdrop, about where we're sitting.Um, sort of frame it up for us. I think we all know what we think is going to happen from the meeting. What.Well, you know, we have a Fed chair and a Fed open market committee that doesn't like surprises. So, I think the 25 basis points is is probably baked in at this point in time. It ...

Core Viewpoint - The Spanish central bank has released an optimistic economic forecast, indicating steady growth and improvements in fiscal conditions, with adjustments made to GDP and inflation predictions for the coming years [1]. Economic Growth - The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 0.6% to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting a robust expansion trend [1]. - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 2.4% to 2.6% [1]. - The growth predictions for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively [1]. Inflation - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4% [1]. - This forecasted inflation rate is still lower than the actual inflation level of 2.9% in 2024, indicating a gradual easing of overall inflationary pressures [1]. Fiscal Conditions - The forecast for the government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for 2025 has been revised down from 2.8% to 2.5%, suggesting improved fiscal discipline and a more stable fiscal situation [1]. Debt Levels - The government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 100.7% by the end of 2025, followed by a decline to 100.4% in 2026 and further down to 100% by the end of 2027 [1]. - This trajectory indicates that the government is making progress in controlling the scale of public debt [1].

Economic Growth and Demand - China's economic growth remains strong, but domestic demand is slightly below expectations, with key production and demand indicators showing stable growth in the first eight months of the year [2] - In August, there was a marginal decline in economic performance, with year-on-year growth rates for industrial value added, service production index, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and export amounts all weakening [2] - The internal driving force for economic growth has not yet solidified, with ongoing transitions between old and new growth drivers, particularly due to household deleveraging impacting economic circulation [2] Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies on September 16 to expand service consumption, enhancing consumer credit support and promoting collaboration between financial institutions and businesses [3][4] - Service consumption is identified as a crucial support for improving livelihoods and upgrading consumption, with a projected 6.2% year-on-year growth in service retail sales for 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points [5] - The government aims to attract more foreign consumers and reduce restrictions in high-end medical and leisure sectors to increase quality service supply [6] External Trade and Export Dynamics - In August, China's total goods imports and exports grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [7] - The export of electromechanical products saw a significant increase, with a 9.2% year-on-year growth in the first eight months [7] - Despite a decline in export growth rate, the resilience of exports is expected to exceed expectations due to adjustments in export markets, particularly with ASEAN and EU countries compensating for reduced exports to the US [7][8] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The economic growth is primarily supported by policy measures and structural highlights, but challenges remain due to weak internal and external demand, low corporate profit expectations, and funding constraints [8] - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for economic stabilization, with the effectiveness of policy financial tools, local government projects, and consumption stimulus policies being pivotal for maintaining growth [8]

Economic Growth Data - In August 2025, China's industrial added value and service production index grew by 5.2% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, showing a month-on-month slowdown of 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment grew by only 0.5%, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.3 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value rose by 9.3%, maintaining the previous month's level and significantly outpacing the overall industrial added value growth[2] - The production index for information transmission, software, and IT services, as well as finance and leasing services, grew by 12.1%, 9.2%, and 7.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong service sector performance[2] Consumer Trends - Restaurant income increased by 2.1% year-on-year, while retail sales of goods grew by 3.6%, with the former showing a month-on-month increase of 1 percentage point and the latter a decrease of 0.4 percentage points[2] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to show effects, although the growth rates for related retail categories like home appliances and furniture have begun to slow down[2] Investment Insights - From January to August, infrastructure investment grew by 2.0%, manufacturing investment by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with all showing a decline compared to the previous month[2] - Private investment fell by 0.8 percentage points to -2.3%, with real estate development private investment dropping by 16.7%, significantly impacting overall private investment growth[2] Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum in August 2025 has slowed, but new policy measures are expected to stabilize growth, including the potential introduction of new financial tools and early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026[2] - Risks include the possibility of ineffective growth stabilization policies, unexpected overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[10]

"懂王"又开始搞事情了。 事实上，这一想法早在特朗普第一任期内就曾提出，近期再度旧事重提，引发市场广泛关注。特朗普认 为"这可以节省开支，让管理者专注于企业的正常运营"。 这一举措预计将遭遇很多反对的声音。季度财报不仅披露企业经营情况，还通常伴随业绩说明会，分析 师可借此向公司高管提问。 部分投资者警告称，若财务信息披露周期延长，透明度将下降，市场波动性或加剧，从而削弱美股吸引 力。 不过，特朗普的这一提议也不乏很多支持者。有专家认为，从优化上市公司资本配置的角度看，过于关 注季度盈利目标可能导致基于短期影响的决策，希望管理层将目光放在长期发展上。 被誉为"华尔街一哥"、摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙和"股神"巴菲特曾发表联合评论文章，呼吁企业不要过 于强调季度盈利预测。虽然他们并未反对季度财报本身，但认为企业往往为了满足季度预期而压缩投资 与招聘。 不管怎样，上述政策调整需要经过SEC的一系列流程。业内人士预计，最快也要2026年之后才能落地。 特朗普动作频频，降息前夜的博弈！ 除了上述提议之外，近期最受资本市场关注的，自然还是美联储即将召开（9月16日至17日）的议息会 议。 当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普呼吁美 ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has upgraded its rating on U.S. long-term Treasuries from "underweight" to "neutral" as investors anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy Adjustments - BlackRock's tactical investment stance for U.S. long-term Treasuries has been adjusted to "neutral" for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-standing "underweight" strategy [1] - The company has also downgraded its position on short-term Treasuries from "overweight" to "neutral" [1] - The adjustment is based on the expectation of a short-term decline in Treasury yields, despite structural factors pushing yields higher in the long term [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, although it remains above the 52-week low of 3.622% reached last September [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - BlackRock's Jean Boivin noted that a weak labor market provides a reasonable basis for the Fed to cut rates, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that U.S. economic growth, while slowing, remains resilient, and corporate earnings will continue to be stable [2] - The market's driving factors are shifting from tariffs and policy uncertainty to a balance between inflation, economic growth, and government debt [2] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation still favors inflation-linked bonds over long-term government bonds [2] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, indicating positive market sentiment [3] - BlackRock views the Fed's upcoming policy decision as a potential turning point for global markets, with the possibility of supporting both U.S. equities and long-term Treasuries if the rate cut occurs under controlled inflation and sustained economic growth [3] - However, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential resurgence of inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Peru's economy is projected to grow by 3.41% year-on-year in July 2025, surpassing market analysts' expectations of 3.0% [1] Economic Performance - Most economic sectors in Peru showed expansion in July, indicating a positive trend in overall economic activity [1] - The mining sector experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 13.2%, while the fishing industry surged by 34.9%, becoming the main drivers of economic expansion for the month [1] - The construction sector grew by 2.7% year-on-year, and the manufacturing sector saw a modest increase of 1.2% [1] Future Outlook - The Central Bank of Peru has raised its full-year economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.4%, supported by the strong performance of July's economic data [1] - However, the overall economic trajectory for the year will require further validation through subsequent monthly data [1]