今日贵金属延续调整。周五美国公布9月CPI和核心CPI均为3%略低于预期,市场维持年内再降息两次预期, 本周降息板上钉钉，关注鲍威尔讲话指引，不排除宣布停止缩表。中美结束新一轮贸易谈判,双方就稳妥解 决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时表示不再考虑对中国加征100%的关 税。贵金属中长期上涨逻辑稳固,短期风险偏好有所向好,技术面严重超买正在修复,可能形成月线级别的 调整,构建震荡平台为进一步走向提供基础,建议暂时观望等待参与机会。本周聚焦美联储议息会议和APEG 领导人峰会消息指引，此外关注美国政府停摆问题能否得到解决。 ★美国CPI—(1)美国劳工部数据称,美国9月 CPI同比上涨3.0%,环比上涨0.3%,核心CPI同比上涨3.0%,环 比上涨0.2%。②美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:数据"非常出色"，通胀正在放缓，美联储压力减 轻。③美国白宫:下个月可能无法公布通胀数据,为史上首次。 ★贸易协议——1美国与泰国签署关键矿物协议,并将维持对泰国19%的关税;②特朗普与巴西总统会晤,双 方将进行经贸谈判,巴方要求在谈判过程中暂停关税;3美国与马来西亚签署贸易协议和关键矿产协议; ...

Group 1 - US stock index futures rose in early Asian trading due to positive news regarding a comprehensive trade agreement between the US and China [1][3] - S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, while major Asia-Pacific markets also saw gains [3] - On October 24, US stock markets continued their upward trend, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1%, both reaching new closing highs [3] Group 2 - Currency markets showed mixed results, with Australian and New Zealand dollars slightly rising, while the US dollar's performance varied against other major currencies [3] - Analysts remain cautious despite the optimistic market sentiment, with some suggesting that the current situation reflects a cooling rather than a fundamental improvement [3][4] - This week is critical for the market as central bank policies and US corporate earnings season converge, potentially leading to market volatility [4]

Market Overview - Asian stocks surged as easing trade tensions between China and the US improved risk appetite, with significant gains in South Korea's KOSPI, Taiwan stocks, and Japan's Nikkei, each rising over 2% [1][2] - MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares increased by 1.3% to a record peak [2] Trade Deal Implications - A potential trade deal would pause American tariffs and Chinese rare earths export controls, alleviating investor concerns [2] - Investors are looking for confirmation that the trade truce holds and that China's stimulus measures lead to tangible growth [3] Currency and Commodity Movements - The Australian dollar rose by 0.42% to $0.6541, reflecting its status as a risk and China proxy [4] - Safe-haven gold prices fell by 1%, while US Treasuries declined, resulting in a 3.8 basis points increase in the benchmark 10-year bond yield [5] Central Bank Meetings - Central bank meetings in Japan, Canada, Europe, and the US are anticipated, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [6] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain current rates, with the BOJ considering future rate hikes as tariff-induced recession fears ease [7] Earnings Season Focus - The US earnings season is highlighted by reports from major companies like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, which are expected to show stronger results despite narrowing profit margins compared to the broader index [8] - Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, a key area for many megacap companies, is driving stock market performance [9]

Core Points - The ongoing US-China talks in Malaysia focus on three main issues, including China's stricter rare earth export controls, which the US fears could disrupt supply chains in critical sectors like semiconductor manufacturing and defense [3] - The US aims to pressure China into relaxing these export restrictions to ensure stable raw material supplies for industries such as electric vehicles and semiconductors [3] - The US also seeks to increase Chinese imports of agricultural products like soybeans to alleviate export barriers faced by American farmers [3] - A significant goal of these talks is to prepare for a meeting between the two countries' leaders at the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea [3] Measures Taken by the US - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that if China does not lift its rare earth controls, the US will collaborate with the G7 to impose software export restrictions on China, targeting its high-tech development [4] - The US has initiated an investigation into whether China has complied with trade agreement terms signed during Trump's first term, with potential additional sanctions if non-compliance is found [7] - Starting November 1, the US plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, a measure linked to China's rare earth export controls, which could be used as leverage in negotiations [7] China's Response - China is portrayed as a responsible nation that has historically adhered to international agreements, contrasting with the US's inconsistent approach [9] - Despite the US's pressure tactics, China remains steadfast in its negotiation stance, having learned from past experiences where it made concessions that were not reciprocated by the US [9] - The US's traditional methods of negotiation, characterized by threats and tariffs, are viewed as ineffective against China, as evidenced by the reduction of a lengthy sanctions list during the talks [9] Conclusion - The resolution of US-China differences is suggested to require equal treatment and mutual benefit, rather than unilateral pressure and sanctions, as trade wars yield no winners [11]

亚洲新兴市场股市跃升至逾四年高位，货币汇率同步攀升，因与美国关联的贸易摩擦的缓和迹象提振了 市场风险偏好。在科技股的推动下，有机构的亚洲新兴股市指数上涨1.3%，触及2021年3月以来的最高 水平。而随着韩国KOSPI指数首次突破4000点大关，韩元领涨亚洲货币。周末特朗普公布了与几个东南 亚国家的贸易协议，这些协议未来可能包括对该地区主要出口商品的关税豁免。SGMC Capital创始人兼 首席执行官Massimiliano Bondurri表示，这些新闻"相当有建设性"，加上本周晚些时候美联储可能降 息，将继续提振股市。"未来几天我们将充分释放这种乐观情绪。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普同巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦会晤时预测，两国可能"很快"达 成贸易协议，随后美国和巴西的高级贸易谈判代表将于周一举行会谈。 按照计划，在两国总统会晤后数小时内将启动更正式的谈判，美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔和美国 国务卿马尔科·卢比奥计划于周日晚上会见巴西外交部长Mauro Vieira和发展、工业、贸易和服务部副部 长Marcio Rosa。 此次会谈标志着两国关系基调发生重大转变。过去几个月，特朗普与卢拉曾在公开声明中互放狠 话。 卢拉已表示，愿意与包括特朗普在内的多方探讨合作机会，以推动开发这种为电动汽车、先进武器 系统和医疗设备所需的关键矿物。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 特朗普表示，他与卢拉"相处得很好"，并暗示愿意撤销近几个月来因其巴西起诉其右翼盟友雅伊尔 ·博索纳罗而对该国征收的惩罚性关税。 "我们应该能够 ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：反弹震荡，等待中美经贸会谈指引 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4104 +23（+0.56%） | 4098 | -12 （-0.29%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2933 +17（+0.58%） | 2949 | +9 （+0.31%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1060.5 -1.5（-0.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 293.9 +1.6（+0.55%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2990～3020， 较昨+20或+40； M2601+60/+70/+90/+100， | 现货基差M2601+80， 较 ...

#行情 美国谷物期货集体上涨，大豆期货涨1.3%，豆粕期货涨1.1%。美国财长贝森特暗示，“我相信，当与中国达成协议的消息公布后，我们的大豆种植户会感到非常高兴。” https://t.co/THBSWoHsNA外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):在中美高级别经济官员贸易会谈中形成初步共识后，特朗普表示，他有信心与中国达成协议。美国财长贝森特称，预计该协议将推迟中国扩大对稀土矿物和磁铁的出口管制，并避免特朗普威胁对中国商品征收的新一轮100%的关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased in early trading on Monday due to a trade-deal framework outlined by U.S. and Chinese economic officials, which alleviated concerns about potential tariffs and export restrictions impacting global economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The trade-deal framework between the U.S. and China is seen as a positive development for the oil market, as both countries are the largest consumers of oil globally [1] - Easing of fears regarding tariffs and export curbs is expected to support global economic growth, which is crucial for oil demand [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The rise in oil prices reflects market optimism following the announcement of the trade-deal framework [1] - The initial trading response indicates a potential stabilization in oil markets amid ongoing trade negotiations between the two economic giants [1]

Core Points - The U.S. has reached new trade agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam during President Trump's visit to Asia, but the lack of binding details raises uncertainties about the agreements' impacts [1][2][3] - The agreements involve commitments to reduce tariffs on U.S. exports, including agricultural products and automobiles, and to facilitate U.S. access to critical minerals and technology [2][3] Group 1: Trade Agreements - The agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia include commitments to reduce tariffs on various U.S. exports and to accept U.S. regulations in the automotive and agricultural sectors [2] - Malaysia has pledged to invest $70 billion in the U.S. over the next ten years, and both countries will facilitate U.S. access to critical minerals [2][3] - The agreements with Thailand and Vietnam are preliminary frameworks aimed at establishing a more comprehensive trade agreement in the future [2] Group 2: Tariff and Regulatory Details - The U.S. will maintain a "reciprocal tariff" of 19% to 20% on imports from these countries but will offer tariff exemptions for certain products, which will be determined in future negotiations [3] - Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister expressed satisfaction with the agreement but hopes for lower tariffs on clothing, footwear, and tourism goods, which are crucial for its economy [3] - Analysts have noted that the agreements lack legal binding power, leading to significant uncertainties regarding their implementation and effectiveness [3]