7月31日周四上午，日本央行宣布维持基准利率不变，并上调了今明两年的通胀预期。 他强调，将密切关注通胀上行风险，不会等到基础通胀率稳定在2%左右再加息，而是取决于基础通胀率达到该水平的可能性。 午后，日本央行行长植田和男召开新闻发布会，表示如果经济和物价走势符合预测，将继续加息。 谨慎看待贸易协议带来的乐观前景 尽管美日已达成贸易政策，但植田和男仍强调贸易局势存在不确定性，基础通胀率仍低于该行2%的目标： "由于美日达成贸易协定，围绕日本经济的不确定性有所消退。但我们的基准预测并未改变，即由于经济增长放缓，潜在通胀将在一段时间内停滞 不前。各国贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高。" 植田和男补充称，日本并非处于有利或不利地位，但要从关税带来的更高成本角度看待关税的影响，希望能在更多硬性数据中观察这一影响。 植田和男还提及，目前日元汇率并未大幅偏离日本央行的预期，不会对物价前景有重大影响。 植田和男讲话期间，美元兑日元持续拉升，现已收复此前全部跌幅，报149.47。 他指出，几乎可以确定的是，"某种程度的高关税"将会生效，因此需要关注企业转嫁成本的趋势。 关注食品通胀回落趋势 植田和男强调，紧缩的货币对需求驱动型通胀有 ...

在7月31日公布的最新利率决议中，日本央行以一致投票决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，为连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。决议公布后，日元兑 美元小幅升值0.5%至148.66。 年底前或再次加息 媒体在本月初美日贸易协议宣布前进行的一项调查显示，大多数经济学家预计日本央行将在年底前再次加息。 稍早，美联储继续按兵不动，且鲍威尔讲话调降了市场对9月降息的预期。美元兑日元汇率随即升至149.43，逼近150关口。一些分析师认为，150是日本政 策制定者的压力点，因为日元贬值到某个程度，会推高进口成本，增加日本家庭的生活成本。大和证券首席经济学家须永彻（Toru Suehiro）称，"日元兑美 元汇率升至150以上，可能会引发市场要求阻止日元下跌的呼声，其中也包括通过日本央行加息来阻止日元下跌。" 保德信固定收益的首席全球经济师兼全球宏观经济研究主管萨恩（Daleep Singh）对第一财经分析称，近期美国与欧盟、日本、菲律宾、印度尼西亚及韩国 先后达成贸易协议，有望进一步提振全球市场的风险情绪，"日美协议的关税税率为15%，包括汽车关税，低于原先曾表示会征收的25%，日本承诺了总额 达5500亿美元的对美投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan highlights that uncertainties arising from trade policies and their developments continue to have a significant impact on the economic and price outlook [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the high level of uncertainty related to trade policies [1]

当前欧元区经济运行亦受到外部因素影响。自2025年4月起，美国新一轮关税政策正式实施，对欧洲汽 车、钢铁、铝等行业形成压力。尽管随后美欧双方围绕关税议题展开谈判，并于上周末达成初步贸易框 架协议，部分商品获得关税豁免，汽车关税回落至基准水平，但贸易政策的不确定性依然是制约投资与 生产的重要因素。 数据显示，欧元区多国经济增长分化明显。西班牙（+0.7%）、葡萄牙（+0.6%）和爱沙尼亚（+0.5%） 环比增长领跑。相比之下，德国和意大利GDP均小幅下滑0.1%。 欧盟统计局表示，此次发布的数据为初步估值，后续将在8月14日公布修正值。 德国联邦统计局当天早些时候发布的数据显示，2025年第二季度德国经济环比萎缩0.1%，符合市场预 期。该数据较第一季度修正后的0.3%增长相比明显放缓。 资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 欧盟统计局30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第二季度，欧元区国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长 0.1%，好于此前"持平"的市场预期。欧盟整体GDP则环比增长0.2%。 德国联邦统计局指出，机械设备 ...

金十数据7月31日讯，据外媒报道，美联储政策声明中有关通胀的措辞自6月会议以来没有任何修 改。"通胀仍在一定程度上偏高"是不变的措辞。这句话表明，随着贸易政策的不确定性持续发酵，美联 储的政策制定者对价格可能再次加速上涨的风险以及通胀尚未明确回到央行2%目标的现实保持警惕。 美联储声明未修改通胀措辞 ...

新华财经法兰克福7月30日电（记者马悦然）欧盟统计局30日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第二季度， 欧元区国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长0.1%，好于此前"持平"的市场预期。欧盟整体GDP则环比增长 0.2%。 按年率计算，欧元区第二季度GDP同比增长1.4%，欧盟增长1.5%，均略低于第一季度的增速。 数据显示，欧元区多国经济增长分化明显。西班牙（+0.7%）、葡萄牙（+0.6%）和爱沙尼亚（+0.5%） 环比增长领跑。相比之下，德国和意大利GDP均小幅下滑0.1%。 德国联邦统计局当天早些时候发布的数据显示，2025年第二季度德国经济环比萎缩0.1%，符合市场预 期。该数据较第一季度修正后的0.3%增长相比明显放缓。 德国联邦统计局指出，机械设备和建筑投资低迷是经济放缓的主要原因，但私人和政府消费支出有所回 升。 当前欧元区经济运行亦受到外部因素影响。自2025年4月起，美国新一轮关税政策正式实施，对欧洲汽 车、钢铁、铝等行业形成压力。尽管随后美欧双方围绕关税议题展开谈判，并于上周末达成初步贸易框 架协议，部分商品获得关税豁免，汽车关税回落至基准水平，但贸易政策的不确定性依然是制约投资与 生产的重要因素。 ...

国际货币基金组织（IMF）在本月二十九日发布的最新《世界经济展望》报告中，将中国今年的经济增长预期大幅上调零点八个百分点至百分之四点八，显 著高于四月预测的百分之四点零。这一调整主要基于中国上半年经济表现超出预期，以及中美实际关税低于此前预估水平。与此同时，IMF将今年全球经济 增长预期上调零点二个百分点至百分之三点零，二零二六年增速预期微调至百分之三点一，但仍低于二零二三年的百分之三点三，显示全球经济复苏步伐仍 受制约。 相比之下，美国今年的经济增长预期维持在百分之一点就，二零二六年预计为百分之二点零。欧元区经济增速虽有所上调，但仍处于较低水平，今年和明年 分别预计增长百分之一点零和一点二。值得注意的是，IMF的报告尚未纳入欧美近期达成的贸易协议影响，该协议规定美国将对几乎所有欧盟进口商品征收 百分之十五的关税，可能对双方经济造成一定拖累。 IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维尔·古兰沙警告称，尽管全球经济增长预期有所上调，但贸易政策的不 确定性仍对经济构成显著风险。他表示，贸易摩擦的影响虽可能比最初担忧的温和，但其负面影响仍在累积，并可能在未来进一步抑制全球经济活动。报告 特别提到，美国通胀可能因关税影响在二 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On July 30, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 773.78 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.42% and a trading volume of 206,379 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 770.20 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 3.58 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed by 10.8% in June to 86 billion USD, with imports decreasing by 4.2% to 264.2 billion USD, marking the lowest level of consumer goods imports since September 2020 [1] - Exports in the same month saw a slight decline of 0.6% [1] Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Zhengxin Futures, gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to multiple factors including trade policy uncertainties and economic policy fluctuations, with a reasonable valuation projected at around 2,990 USD per ounce over the next three years [2] - The pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts poses risks to the Fed's independence, while the upcoming trade agreements and the third round of U.S.-China trade talks may influence market sentiment [2] - The long-term uncertainty in U.S. economic policy remains high, and the demand for precious metals as a strategic asset is expected to rise, providing support for gold prices [2]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, indicating that the global economy maintains a fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainties [1] - Compared to the April forecast, the IMF has slightly upgraded the global growth outlook [2] Growth Projections - The global economic growth is expected to reach 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the April forecast, but lower than the 3.3% in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% [3] - The upgrade in the 2025 forecast is broad-based, attributed to strong preemptive actions in international trade, lower global effective tariff rates, and improved global financial conditions [3] Advanced Economies - For advanced economies, growth is projected at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [4] - In the United States, the growth rate is expected to be 1.9% in 2025, up by 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast, with a slight increase to 2.0% in 2026 [4] - The Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with the 2025 forecast raised by 0.2 percentage points mainly due to strong GDP growth in Ireland [4] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 [5] - China's growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and significant reductions in US-China tariffs [5] - India's growth is projected at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts due to a more favorable external environment [6] Regional Growth Expectations - The Middle East and Central Asia are expected to see growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 [7] - Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is projected at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026 [8] - Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see a decline to 2.2% in 2025, with a recovery to 2.4% in 2026 [9] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is expected to continue declining, with an overall rate projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [12] - The IMF has adjusted the global trade volume forecast upward by 0.9 percentage points for 2025, while lowering the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points [11] Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Ukraine, may pose new supply shocks to the global economy, potentially leading to increased commodity prices and inflationary pressures [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock market opened higher but saw a pullback, with the Dow Jones in the red while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remained positive [1] - The healthcare sector in the US experienced a collective decline, with Novo Nordisk down over 19%, Merck down over 8%, and Eli Lilly down over 5% [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Li Auto's stock dropped nearly 7% after initially rising over 6%, coinciding with the launch of its first pure electric SUV, the Li i8, which is priced between 321,800 to 369,800 yuan [3][5] - The launch of the Li i8 positions it in the mid-to-large luxury family vehicle market, competing with models like the Aito M9, Tesla Model X, and NIO ES8 [5] - The decline in Li Auto's stock also negatively impacted other new energy vehicle stocks, including Xpeng Motors and NIO, which saw significant drops [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its World Economic Outlook report, slightly raising global economic growth forecasts for the next two years [6] - The IMF projects global economic growth rates of 3% and 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts [6] - The report indicates that emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at 4.1% and 4% for the next two years, with adjustments of 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points [6] - China's actual GDP annual growth rate is projected to reach 6%, exceeding expectations, with the IMF raising its 2025 growth forecast for China by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [6]