证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】 —Charles A Jaffe 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 09 月 30 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： It's not your salary that makes you rich; it's your spending habits. 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《"9·24"一周年——总量"创"辩第 112 期》 2025-09-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 43 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-09-23 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 42 期：兑现降息预期， 否认降息周期——9 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 6 期》 2025-09-18 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 41 期：Rider ...

此外，BII也关注人工智能主题在全球市场的发展，认为AI将持续成为驱动股市的重要因素。Powell补 充：AI不仅是科技股的催化剂，也正逐步渗透至其他产业，成为全球投资的重要主题。 展望未来一周，BII将密切关注美国就业数据的公布。报告指出，若美国劳动市场未出现明显疲弱，美 联储可能不会如市场预期般迅速降息。该行指目前通胀仍具黏性，利率可能维持高档更久，这将影响资 产配置与市场走向。 贝莱德投资研究院(BlackRock Investment Institute,BII)最新发布《每周市场评论》，认为日本股市仍是全 球投资组合中的首选之一。报告指出，日本经济稳健成长，加上持续推动有利股东的企业改革，使日本 股市表现强劲，BII维持对日本股票的超配立场。 BII中东及亚太区首席投资策略师Ben Powell表示，该行看好日本的长期潜力，企业治理改革正在发酵， 薪资上升亦有助于消费支出。即使日元近期贬值至34年新低，仍认为这不会阻碍日本股市的上升趋势。 报告指出，日本股市近期屡创新高，与美国股市徘徊在历史高位形成鲜明对比。新兴市场股票亦在今年 表现亮眼，成为全球表现最佳的资产之一。 在全球利率政策分歧的背景下，日 ...

2025年9月26日，中信期货2025年秋季策略会圆满收官。本次策略会以"潮汐涌动.破卷立新"为主题，采 用线上会议的形式举行。通过7大论坛，中信期货研究所的研究员们以多元视角解析市场，多维度深挖 投资机遇，针对四季度及2026年大宗商品、权益、汇率等期货及衍生品领域展开深入剖析，助力投资者 多维掘金、稳健布局。 宏观与贵金属论坛：稳中求进|宏观趋势与资产配置 中信期货研究所宏观与国际研究部总经理姜婧女士表示，四季度宏观和大类资产基调是"稳中求进"，政 策与基本面对冲效应使得宏观环境偏"稳"，资产配置策略偏"进"。从国内层面看，四季度稳增长政策聚 焦三大方向：一是5000亿元政策性金融工具，二是货币政策大概率实施降准，三是"十五五"规划前瞻。 从海外维度看，美国经济动能趋疲，但政策"再校准"将提供支撑，未来1-2个季度，全球宽松流动性与 财政杠杆带动的复苏预期，将为风险资产提供支撑。 中信期货研究所宏观研究组资深研究员朱善颖女士聚焦贵金属，强调四季度黄金震荡偏强，是长期战略 配置窗口。尽管近两年实际利率与金价相关性降低，但受降息周期重启和美联储独立性风险影响，美国 实际利率下行周期中黄金上涨从未缺席。长期来看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive dynamics between China Merchants Bank (CMB) and Ant Group in the fund distribution market, highlighting how Ant has surpassed CMB in various metrics and the strategies each company employs to maintain or enhance their market positions [5][10][11]. Group 1: Market Position and Performance - As of mid-2024, Ant Group has significantly outperformed CMB in fund distribution, with Ant's equity fund holdings at 8,229 billion yuan compared to CMB's 4,920 billion yuan, marking a 40% lower performance for CMB [11][14]. - CMB has historically been a leader in fund distribution but is now facing the risk of being left behind as Ant Group continues to grow its market share [10][11]. - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to Ant's larger user base and more aggressive online strategies, which have allowed it to capture a significant portion of the fund distribution market [22][48]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - CMB has relied on its strong retail banking presence and high-net-worth clientele, but it has struggled to adapt to the rapid changes in the fund distribution landscape [22][49]. - Ant Group has leveraged its vast user base on Alipay, with over 1 billion total users and 3 billion daily active users, to enhance its fund distribution capabilities [22][48]. - CMB's strategy includes focusing on high-net-worth clients and enhancing its wealth management services, while Ant is expanding its offerings in index funds and flexible investment products [46][47]. Group 3: Challenges and Responses - CMB is facing challenges due to a decline in wealth management income and increased competition from Ant, which has led to a strategic reassessment within CMB [29][30]. - The recent regulatory changes that lower fund sales fees pose additional challenges for CMB, which relies on its high-cost sales model [49]. - CMB is attempting to strengthen its asset allocation capabilities and improve customer experience through enhanced advisory services and product offerings [37][39]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The competition between CMB and Ant Group is expected to solidify, with CMB focusing on high-net-worth clients and complex financial products, while Ant continues to dominate the mass market with its online services [50][51]. - The article suggests that CMB must leverage its strengths in personalized service and high-net-worth client management to maintain its market position amidst increasing pressure from Ant [49][50].

人民财讯9月30日电，全国社会保障基金理事会全国社会保障基金2024年度报告发布。受国内国际多重 因素影响，2024年国内股市前低后高，国际资本市场分化加大。社保基金会加强市场研判，因时因势制 订"稳中求进、以进促稳"的配置策略，在资本市场波动中，坚定信心，保持战略定力不动摇，维持股票 风险敞口基本稳定，获取了A股市场反弹带来的收益；靠前配置、加大配置固定收益资产，较好把握了 利率持续下行带来的投资机会；积极加大股权投资力度，优化海外投资布局，较好发挥了资产配置分散 投资风险、稳定提升基金整体收益的作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in spot gold prices has led to an increase in the popularity of gold-linked financial products, with various banks launching such offerings to attract investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 29, approximately 50 gold-related financial products are currently available in the market, primarily categorized as "fixed income+" products with a risk level of two [1]. - The average annualized return for most "gold fixed income+" products has been between 2% and 4% over the past month, outperforming other fixed income products amid recent market fluctuations [1]. - Since July, several gold-linked structured products have achieved early profit-taking, providing a positive experience for investors [1]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Banks are increasingly offering gold-linked products to enhance product yield attractiveness and meet the needs of target customer groups, especially in the context of rising geopolitical risks and declining yields in traditional fixed-income products [2]. - The international gold price has shown strong momentum, breaking through significant thresholds, which has also driven domestic gold prices higher [2]. - Gold is viewed as a traditional "safe-haven" asset, with long-term asset allocation value, making it suitable for investors seeking stable returns [2]. Group 3: Investment Risks and Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious of fraud and illegal fundraising risks associated with gold-linked financial products, as some may exploit the current gold investment trend [3]. - It is recommended that banks enhance their research capabilities and optimize the structure of gold-related financial products to improve asset allocation and returns [3]. - Investors should assess their risk tolerance and choose appropriate investment channels, ensuring they understand product details and underlying assets [4].

9月以来，公募FOF表现不俗，虽然此前权益市场有所回落，但整体上FOF基金单月投资胜率不低，单月最高收益率已近8%。有不少基金经理在近期对四季 度的配置策略做出研判，特别是对于一些均衡配置的方案给出合理建议，在他们看来，一些"反内卷"、红利方向以及海外权益和商品等也值得关注。 9月公募FOF投资胜率高，业绩最高产品收益率已近8% 9月以来，公募FOF业绩维持高胜率，截至9月28日，权益类FOF的单月投资胜率均超过九成，全市场单月业绩为负的基金数量不足30只（统计初始基金）。 权益市场方面，上周虽然市场延续震荡，但各主要指数也在周内收涨。宽基指数方面，上证指数报3828.1点，上涨0.21%；深证成指报13209.0点，上涨 1.06%；创业板指报3151.5点，上涨1.96%。板块方面，电力设备、电子、汽车板块表现较好。 而在债市方面，当前债券市场的利多、利空信息均相对明确。在低利率时代背景下，债券市场的反应呈现出明显的不对称性，对利空的敏感度大于对利多的 敏感度。国债期货T合约于8月下旬跌破年线后，持续在年线以下运行，自2018年4月以来，除2020年下半年至2021年上半年外，本次为首次跌破年线，表明 前 ...

9月29日，国际金价再创新高，现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，一度涨至3819.8美元/盎司。较月初的 3476.5美元/盎司累计上涨约10%，年内涨幅已超45%。而自9月以来，在美联储降息预期的影响下，国 际金价就持续大涨，屡创新高。 伴随着国际金价屡创新高，消费端的金饰品价格也水涨船高。长假临近，珠宝品牌也迎来了传统的销售 旺季。前往门店选购金饰的顾客络绎不绝，各大珠宝品牌也纷纷推出促销活动以吸引消费者。受国际金 价接连上涨影响，国内品牌金饰克价已经超1100元大关。周大福、潮宏基等品牌9月29日千足金饰品的 价格为1108元/克，较本月初已经上涨约80元/克。 "不过现在有促销活动。千足金每克有40元的优惠，一口价饰品除了'故宫系列'，可以打9.2折。"谈及最 近关于"一口价"饰品的调价传闻，周大福门店的工作人员表示，"10月会上调价格，大概在30%左 右。"同样的涨价消息在六福珠宝的门店也得到确认，其柜员表示，"一口价"饰品10月会涨价，但具体 的幅度还不清楚。 "近期金价波动频繁，是黄金饰品涨价的根本因素。加之每年9月、10月是传统婚庆旺季，也是婚庆金饰 购买的高峰期，市场需求的增加也推动了金饰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that gold has significantly outperformed major stock indices this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, highlighting its status as a key asset in the current economic climate influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2]. Market Performance - The London gold price has risen to 3801.950, marking an increase of 43.170 or 1.15% [1]. - Major stock indices such as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have shown positive year-to-date performances of 8.70%, 16.43%, and 12.96% respectively [2]. Gold Investment Strategies - The article discusses two established asset allocation models: the Permanent Portfolio and the All-Weather Portfolio. - The Permanent Portfolio, proposed by Harry Browne, allocates 25% to stocks, 25% to long-term bonds, 25% to short-term bonds, and 25% to gold, aiming for stability across different economic conditions [3][4]. - The All-Weather Portfolio, created by Ray Dalio, suggests a more dynamic allocation of 30% to stocks, 40% to long-term bonds, 15% to intermediate bonds, 7.5% to gold, and 7.5% to other commodities, focusing on risk balance and efficiency [12][14]. Historical Performance - Both the Permanent and All-Weather Portfolios have achieved annualized returns of approximately 8%-9% from 1971 to 2024, with low volatility and high success rates, generating positive returns in 8 to 9 out of 10 years [15][16]. - The article notes that aside from 2022, when both portfolios experienced losses due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, they have generally performed well [18]. Recommendations for Gold Allocation - The article suggests varying gold allocation based on risk tolerance: - Aggressive investors may allocate 5%-10% to gold for extreme risk hedging. - Moderate investors might consider 10%-15%, aligning with Dalio's recent advice to increase gold allocation to 15%. - Conservative investors could allocate 20%-25% to gold, following the Permanent Portfolio model [18].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 股市马斯克 来源：雪球 最近美国政府被迫关门的消息甚嚣尘上 ， 很多小伙伴表示不解 ， 为什么政府还能关门 ？ 政府关门国家岂不是乱套了 ？ 今天我就和大家聊一聊美国政府关门的情况 ， 以及这次关门风险会对接下来的美股 、 黄金有何影响 ？ 01 美国政府为什么会出现关门的风险 ？ 美国政府的财政年度是从每年的10月1号到次年的9月30号 ， 等到一年结束的时候会通过新的拨款法案为明年的政府运转提供资金 ， 如果这个 拨款法案得不到通过 ， 明年政府就没钱发工资 ， 很多项目也没钱开展 ， 政府就会陷入停摆状态。 说白了 ， 政府关门就是因为预算用完了 ， 需要批准新的预算才能继续运行。 但是政府的预算并不是总统说了算的 ， 而是国会投票决定的。 国会是由共和党和民主党共同组成 ， 两党在预算方面为了各自的选票就会导致政见不一 ， 谁也不服谁 ， 相互对抗对方的提案。 根据历史数据显示 ， 自1980年以来 ， 美国政府已经发生过22次关门或接近关门的情况 ， 其中1995年关门 ...