现货白银也是连跌四个交易日，11月18日，伦敦现货白银跌破50美元/盎司。 潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 在上周猛冲到4200美元/盎司上方后，黄金又跌回4000美元/盎司。 由于美元升值以及市场对美联储12月降息的预期进一步降温，现货黄金连续调整。11月18日下午，伦敦现货黄金一度跌破4000美元/盎司，日内跌幅超1%。 这已是现货黄金连续第四个交易日下跌。 | 16:28 9 | | | ·II 令 □· | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | G | 伦敦金现 | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 4023.040 " | 4045.330 总量 | | | | -22.290 -0.55% 开盘 | 4045.330 现手 | | | | 最高价 | 4055.320 持 仓 0 外 盘 | | | | 最低价 | 3997.658 增 仓 0 内 空 | | | | 分时 | 五日 日K 月K | | ■名 | | 叠加 | | 均价:0.000 | | | 4093.002 | | | 1.18％ 卖ー 4023.310 | | | | | 4023. ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in China is experiencing a collective decline in stock prices, with major companies like China Life and New China Life seeing significant drops in their share values. This trend is influenced by recent regulatory data indicating changes in investment strategies and market conditions [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - China Pacific Insurance (01339) fell by 4.59%, trading at 7.07 HKD - New China Life (01336) decreased by 4.48%, trading at 48.62 HKD - China Life (02628) dropped by 3.48%, trading at 26.04 HKD - China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328) declined by 3.05%, trading at 18.42 HKD [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Data - As of the end of Q3, the total stock investment balance for life and property insurance companies reached 3.62 trillion CNY, showing an increase in both scale and proportion compared to the end of Q2 - The bond allocation ratio for life insurance companies has decreased quarter-on-quarter - Both life and property insurance companies have seen a decline in the scale and proportion of bank deposit allocations [1]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Liu Xinqi, Chief Analyst of Non-Bank Financials at Guotai Junan Securities, notes that the net investment yield for insurance companies is on a downward trend due to a low interest rate environment and narrowing credit spreads - There is a pressing need for insurance companies to shift their asset allocation strategies from passive to active management - The focus should be on flexibly seizing market opportunities and continuously optimizing asset allocation structures to achieve stable investment returns [1].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 新浪财经讯，11月18日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办，申万宏源研究债券首席分析 师黄伟平发表申万宏源2026年债券策略投资展望，他认为， 2025年经济主要支撑在于：1）外需拉动；2）生产驱动，尤其制造业；3）财政扩张社会信用。 过去几年债市核心矛盾的切换：从信用收缩到资产配置再平衡。 2025年债市逻辑主线在预期差：Q1资金预期差、Q2中美关系预期差，Q3资产配置预期差（ 存款搬家 +股市风险偏好回升）、 Q4央行买债预期差。2025年信用周期的框架难以解析债市表现，进入低利率 环境资产配置的性价比开始深刻影响债市。 当前债市核心矛盾进入新阶段："物价+资金流向"开始受市场关注。经济转型进入新阶段，地产对经济 影响可能回到2015年附近，对经济影响不强。 • 化债解决了经济结构转型中的"历史遗留问题"，按照"6+4+2"的化债方案2026年化债进程 到"46%-70%"，资产荒压力进一步缓解。 • 居民存量财富再分配的逻辑开始受到市场重视。 • 利率进入低位后，波动性往往会增加。 百年未有之大变局遇上十五五规划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Tongyu Mengyin Village Bank regarding the adjustment of deposit interest rates indicates a potential shift in the banking industry towards reducing long-term deposit products, reflecting a broader trend in response to narrowing net interest margins [1][7]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Tongyu Mengyin Village Bank will cancel the 5-year fixed deposit product starting from November 5, 2025 [1]. - Many banks, including the six major state-owned banks, still offer 5-year fixed deposit products, suggesting that the trend may not be widespread yet [2]. - The availability of 5-year large certificates of deposit (CDs) has significantly decreased, indicating a shift in investor preferences and bank offerings [3][5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - The demand for long-term deposit products, such as 5-year large CDs, has diminished compared to previous years when they were highly sought after [4]. - Currently, major banks do not offer 5-year large CDs, with the longest available term being 2 years at a low annualized interest rate of 1.40% [5]. Group 3: Banking Profitability and Strategy - The reduction in long-term deposit products and lower interest rates is primarily driven by banks' need to address the pressure from narrowing net interest margins [7]. - The traditional banking profit model of earning from interest rate spreads is evolving, with banks focusing on lower-cost funding and diversifying income sources through wealth management and intermediary services [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider alternative investment products, such as savings-type insurance, and to adopt a tiered asset allocation strategy based on their risk tolerance and liquidity needs [8][9]. - Recommendations for investors include prioritizing short to medium-term deposits or government bonds, while also considering low-volatility financial products and equities for those with higher risk tolerance [9].

宋鹏拥有13年投资管理、5年固收策略研究的基金从业经验，担任汇添富基金养老金投资部总监。他具 备丰富的长期大型保险资金管理经验，对我国债券市场、宏观经济和政策都有深入的理解，能充分把握 市场脉络，具有较强的资产配置能力。 孙丹为险资出身，投资风格稳健，2022年4月加入汇添富基金，目前任养老金投资部投资经理，管理低 波"固收+"产品。其长期的转债资产投研经验，让她对转债的市场特性、定价机制、条款特性有全面的 认知。长期覆盖正股相关多个行业，在细分板块中有较强的选股能力。 茹奕菡拥有5年银行自营、理财投资管理经验，8年纯债组合管理经验。多年深耕固收资产，有成熟的投 资框架。她注重底仓精细化管理，强调持续通过曲线变动和择券优化组合结构，取得超额收益；深入理 解各品种和板块定价，擅长挖掘性价比相对较高资产。 一边是无风险利率下行背景下传统理财收益收窄，另一边是权益市场在4000点左右反复拉锯，投资难度 提升。在这样的市场环境下，相当一部分投资者迫切需要一种既能够抵御市场波动，又能够获取稳健收 益的投资工具。 纵观过去十年的市场表现，混合债券型二级基金指数体现出不错的稳健特性。特别是在沪深300指数收 益为负的年份里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market and gold are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, driven by the AI technology wave and macroeconomic factors, despite potential risks from liquidity and policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Chinese Stock Market Analysis - The Chinese stock market experiences more frequent cycles of upward and downward movements compared to the US market, making the identification of market tops more critical [1]. - Current economic conditions indicate that China is in a recovery phase with low inflation and stable growth, suggesting no immediate need for policy tightening [1]. - The profitability growth of the CSI 300 index is recovering from low levels, with a forward P/E ratio of 12.6, which is below historical market peak valuations [1]. - Concerns about liquidity are present, but there are no clear signals indicating a market peak based on economic and policy factors [1]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold's market top is easier to predict than that of stocks, largely due to its strong correlation with Federal Reserve policies [2]. - The outlook for gold in 2026 will depend on four key factors: economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [2][4]. - Long-term trends suggest a structural increase in gold valuations due to declining dollar credibility and geopolitical uncertainties, with potential for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce if current trends continue [4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The company recommends an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold for the first half of 2026, while maintaining standard allocations in US stocks and bonds, and adjusting commodities to standard allocation [4]. - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain generally loose, supporting the market, while the AI industry trend will continue to bolster A-shares [4]. - For bonds, the risk-reward ratio is declining relative to other assets, suggesting a downgrade from standard to low allocation, focusing on short to medium duration, high coupon varieties [5].

这段时间不管是建行、中信这些大银行，还是工行、中行，都陆续上调了积存金的投资门槛。以前八九百、一千块就能上车，现在不少都涨到一千二、一千 五了，中国银行更是年内第四次调门槛，看得出来银行这是跟着金价行情在调整。我身边就有朋友慌了，跑来问我"是不是再不买就没机会了"，其实这背后 的逻辑没那么复杂。 为啥银行要提高门槛？说白了，金价涨得太火，想进场抄底的人太多，银行一方面是控制自身的运营风险，另一方面也是在筛选真正的长期投资者，不是让 大家跟风炒作。我做财经记者这些年，见过太多追着金价涨跌跑的人，涨的时候疯狂入场，跌的时候又慌着割肉，最后没赚到钱还闹心。 朋友们，最近是不是刷到金价一路飙涨，手里有点闲钱就想买点黄金稳一稳？可别着急动手，因为各大银行都在悄悄"设门槛"了！我是帮主郑重，干了20年 财经记者、专做中长线的老炮儿，今天就跟大家唠唠这事儿，到底是机会还是坑。 另外提醒大家，别把积存金当成快速赚钱的工具，它更像是资产里的"压舱石"。银行提高门槛其实也是在给市场降温，避免大家盲目跟风。咱们做中长线投 资，拼的就是定力，跟着市场节奏走，匹配自己的风险承受力，才能拿得安心、赚得踏实。 要不要我帮你整理一份不同门槛 ...

Core Insights - The capital market has shown steady growth this year, with equity funds experiencing significant gains driven by sectors like technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy [2][3] - Ordinary stock funds and equity fund indices have increased by approximately 30% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index [3] - The total scale of equity funds has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2 trillion yuan since the end of last year [3] Investor Experience - Nearly 60% of surveyed investors reported profits this year, with 10% claiming substantial gains and 45.83% indicating modest profits [3][4] - Some investors have struggled with past losses affecting their current performance, with nearly 30% still facing losses this year [4][5] - A significant portion of investors (40%) are favoring full investment in equity funds without a structured allocation strategy [6][9] Fund Preferences - Index funds are the most favored type of investment, receiving 52.27% of votes, followed by active equity funds at nearly 30% [6] - The popularity of index funds is attributed to their clear logic, transparency, and low costs, which have gained investor confidence [7] - The total scale of domestic stock ETFs is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 and nearly 4 trillion yuan by November 2025 [6] Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly adopting a diversified approach, with nearly 25% indicating they have made internal allocations within equity assets this year [10] - Recommendations suggest using bond funds as a base and selectively increasing equity fund allocations, particularly in domestic technology growth sectors [11] - The industry is moving towards a more rational allocation strategy to break the cycle of "funds making money while investors do not" [11]

Core Insights - The commodity ETF market has experienced explosive growth in 2023, with total net inflows reaching 102.02 billion yuan and total assets growing by 203.92% to 229.99 billion yuan as of November 14 [1] - The primary driver of this growth is the performance of gold ETFs, with leading products like Huaan Gold ETF reaching a scale of 87.38 billion yuan, a 70-fold increase since its inception in 2013 [1] - Factors contributing to the growth include rising commodity prices, the attractiveness of commodity ETFs as low-threshold investment tools, and the expansion of product lines [1][3] Commodity Price Performance - Gold prices have surged this year, with COMEX gold up 48%, SEG gold 54.17%, and Shanghai gold 54.33% as of November 14 [2] - The strong performance of gold directly impacts the net asset value of related commodity ETFs, with the highest net value growth rate reaching 53.94% for 14 products [2] Market Dynamics - The demand for gold ETFs has been bolstered by increased risk aversion, asset allocation optimization, and favorable index investment policies [3] - While gold ETFs have thrived, other commodity ETFs have shown mixed performance, with some experiencing losses, indicating structural differentiation within the market [4][5] Future Outlook - Industry experts anticipate a continued positive trend for commodity ETFs, although structural differentiation is expected to persist [6] - Factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support commodity prices and the overall performance of commodity ETFs, while agricultural and energy chemical ETFs may remain under pressure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry's fund utilization balance has steadily increased, with a further rise in equity asset allocation and a decrease in bond asset allocation, indicating the growing importance of active management capabilities in investment [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Utilization Overview - As of Q3 2025, the insurance industry's fund utilization balance reached 37.5 trillion yuan, a year-to-date increase of 12.6%, driven by stable growth in new and renewal premiums, with a year-on-year premium growth of 8.8% [2]. - The life insurance sector accounted for 33.7 trillion yuan, also up 12.6% year-to-date, while the property insurance sector reached 2.4 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.5% [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Changes - By the end of Q3 2025, the insurance industry allocated 3.62 trillion yuan to equity assets, an increase of 1.19 trillion yuan year-to-date, with an allocation percentage of 10.0%, up 2.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3]. - The allocation to equity funds rose to 5.5%, up 0.2 percentage points year-to-date, while bond asset allocation was 50.3%, up 0.8 percentage points year-to-date but down 0.8 percentage points from Q2 [3]. - Bank deposits accounted for 7.9% of the allocation, down 1.1 percentage points year-to-date, and other assets (primarily non-standard) accounted for 18.4%, down 2.7 percentage points year-to-date [3]. Group 3: Investment Management Strategy - The net investment yield is trending downward due to a low interest rate environment and narrowing credit spreads, indicating a need for insurance companies to shift from passive to active management strategies [4]. - The focus should be on flexibly seizing market opportunities and continuously optimizing asset allocation structures to achieve stable investment returns [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The expectation is that insurance companies will continue to optimize their asset allocation strategies, leading to improved profitability, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [5].