中国银行保险资产管理业协会(以下简称"银行保险资管业协会")近日发布的"保险机构2026年资产配置展 望调查结果"显示，保险机构今年普遍看好的境内投资资产是股票和证券投资基金。其中，多数保险机 构对2026年A股市场持较乐观的态度，并计划小幅增配A股。同时，2026年保险机构最看好的境外投资 品种是港股，黄金投资和美股投资也受到保险机构较大关注。 此外，银行保险资管业协会发布的银行保险资产管理行业投资信心指数显示，权益投资信心指数显著上 升。 境外投资看好港股 银行保险资管业协会表示，此次调查更加突出"资产配置"导向。127家保险机构参与反馈，包括36家保 险资产管理机构和91家保险公司。 调查结果显示，从大类资产配置来看，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资 产。多数保险机构预计对银行存款、债券、证券投资基金及其他金融资产的配置比例与2025年基本持 平，部分保险机构有意愿适度或微幅增加股票投资。 从债券配置来看，多数保险机构对2026年债券市场持中性态度。利率债方面，保险机构预计10年期国债 收益率将处于1.8%—1.9%(含)，30年期国债收益率将集中在2.2%—2.4%(含)。信 ...

风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 报告导读： 白酒板块动销和批价上行。大众品板块中零食、乳制品有望迎来春节备货投资 行情。 投资建议： 成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 白酒：春节动销渐起，飞天批价上涨。 本周1月29日白酒板块单日大幅上涨，主要受地产政策、茅台批价、流动性等多重因素催化。据我们观察，茅台价盘 理顺后渠道融合度显著提升，线上i茅台掀起抢购潮，线下经销商出货甚至略快于往年，近期礼赠及饮用需求增加，普飞批价本周一度涨超1700元。展望后 续：1）短期维度，白酒开门红推进中，除强势品牌外多数渠道打款积极性一般，预计动销高峰2月开启，届时若普飞等核心大单品需求持续释放，则有望支 撑价盘，若批价确认企稳，我们认为其对股价的压制将会减轻；2）中期维度，2026年景气修复和库存去化尚需时间，预计酒企通过以价换量或控量的方式维 持渠道韧性，典型的以价换量如高端龙头茅台、五粮液，控量如习酒、郎酒等，5-6月起行业迎来低基数，动销或将逐步企稳，具备较强放量潜力的品牌有望 更快修复，行业预计呈现主动或被动去库之势，为后续发展奠定基础。 大众品：元旦良好人流量利好出行相关食饮需求。 （ ...

格隆汇1月28日｜招商策略研报指出，过去一个月市场总体小幅震荡上行，部分涨价资源品、AI景气催 化的TMT板块表现较好。展望2月份，行业配置重点关注景气修复的线索和春季行情的演绎，聚焦顺周 期+科技领域，同时随着春节临近，增加对部分可选消费的关注。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分 布、估值、交易、周期阶段和赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注电子（半导体）、传媒（广告营销、 游戏、影视）、机械（自动化设备、工程机械）、电力设备（电池、电网设备、光伏设备）、基础化 工、社会服务等。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will slowly rebound to near zero in the first half of 2026, with the AR-gap and Phillips curve models indicating a mild recovery in PPI year-on-year, although the support from macro variables is weaker than the momentum of inflation itself [7][19]. - Beneficiary sectors during the historical periods when PPI rises from negative to positive include non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, electricity, home appliances, agriculture, coal, electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals [7][21]. - The liquidity-sensitive mode of major assets indicates that market sentiment has reached the upper range of historical thresholds, leading to a decrease in the explanatory power of sentiment on equity asset gains, suggesting a potential decline in momentum driven by sentiment [7][39]. Group 2: Inflation and Beneficiary Sectors - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy has led to market expectations of "price recovery," which helps to change the deflationary mindset, although the upward space for inflation is constrained by demand [19]. - Historical analysis shows that during periods when PPI rises from the bottom to near zero, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, steel, electricity, and public utilities exhibit significant positive marginal impacts on overall equity markets [21][27]. - The report identifies that the structural opportunities in the consumer sector are present, while the dividend sector faces both profit and valuation pressures [7][27]. Group 3: Macro and Funding Perspectives - The macro liquidity environment is characterized by a "price soft and volume stable" pattern, with marginal recovery in base currency issuance but still relying on rapid declines in interest rates to improve the overall funding situation [46]. - Global macro liquidity is also showing marginal recovery, primarily driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market [46][48]. - The report notes that the recent surge in new applications for equity funds indicates a warming market sentiment, with expectations that major funds will concentrate their investments around the end of the first quarter of 2026 [53][60]. Group 4: Style Allocation - The report indicates that the information ratio for dividend and consumer sectors continues to decline, with no reversal signals currently, while the information ratio for cyclical sectors is rapidly strengthening, suggesting a shift in focus towards growth sectors to capture momentum gains [74]. - The growth sector's net value is approaching previous highs, but there is still significant room for the information ratio to rise, indicating a potential for better performance in this area [74].

Group 1: A-share Market Insights - The macro environment is positive with a strong RMB exchange rate and ongoing expectations for overseas interest rate cuts, providing a favorable liquidity backdrop for the market [2] - The end-of-year PMI data showed a seasonal increase, boosting confidence in the economy for 2026 [2] - The national fiscal work conference emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment in key areas [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investment recommendations should focus on high-growth sectors and industry trends, including sectors with valuation and growth protection such as optical modules, PCBs, and lithium battery storage [3] - There is potential for deep exploration in technology growth areas like AI applications and robotics, as well as tracking policy catalysts related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which have potential for price recovery, should also be monitored [3] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with attention shifting back to macro data, monetary policy signals, and corporate earnings expectations [4] - If the interest rate environment remains favorable and economic data does not show significant downturn risks, the market can sustain a strong oscillating trend [4] - Structural differentiation and phase volatility may still occur as the market navigates between optimistic expectations and cautious pricing [4] Group 4: European Stock Market Trends - The European stock market has shown stable performance, with signs of recovery entering the new year, although it remains primarily in a range-bound operation [5] - Positive local policies are enhancing growth momentum, supported by fiscal buffers established since the pandemic and energy crisis [5] - Improvements in consumption and rising real wages, along with the transmission of interest rate cuts to the real economy, may lead to growth exceeding potential levels in Europe for 2026 [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate a majority leaning towards gradual interest rate cuts, contingent on inflation continuing to decline as expected [6] - There is a cautious stance among some members regarding immediate rate cuts, emphasizing the need to observe data performance [6] - Divergent opinions on future interest rate paths and the timing of rate cuts suggest increased uncertainty in monetary policy for 2026, heavily reliant on forthcoming data [6] Group 6: Venezuela Oil Market Impact - The recent events in Venezuela have raised concerns about global oil price volatility, but the country's relatively small share in global oil production limits the potential impact [7] - Venezuela's daily oil production is around 1 million barrels, with exports of approximately 900,000 barrels, accounting for just over 1% of global oil output [7] - The geopolitical risks in Venezuela may lead to a release of oil capacity once tensions ease, but ongoing expansions by the U.S. and OPEC+ could continue to suppress oil prices [8]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market is expected to trend upward after a period of consolidation, focusing on three main directions: policy catalysis, economic recovery, and benefits from interest rate cuts [4][14][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government shutdown and its potential impact on asset volatility, while also noting the relatively mild market reaction so far [15][16] - Domestic policies are expected to provide short-term support, with significant attention on the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming APEC meeting for potential U.S.-China progress [16][17] Group 2 - The report identifies ten key stocks for October, including companies from various sectors such as electronics, automotive, and new energy, with no specific ranking among them [5][12] - The electronic sector features companies like Zhongwei Company and Fudan Microelectronics, which are expected to benefit from advancements in technology and market demand [18][22] - The automotive sector includes Moulding Technology, which is positioned to gain from increasing demand for lightweight and customized exterior parts due to the shift towards electric vehicles [34][36] Group 3 - In the electronics sector, Zhongwei Company reported a significant revenue increase of 36.46% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, although net profit saw a decline due to increased costs [18][19] - Fudan Microelectronics is facing intense competition in the market, leading to a slight decrease in revenue and profit, but is advancing its FPGA product line to maintain a competitive edge [22][23] - Moulding Technology is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to new projects with major automotive clients, projecting revenues of 71.4 billion yuan for 2024 [32][34] Group 4 - The report indicates that Meihu Co. is diversifying into new energy vehicles while maintaining strong growth in its traditional pump business, with a projected revenue increase for 2025 [39][40] - Shenzhen New Star is experiencing a significant recovery in performance, with a projected revenue of 15 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by a rebound in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices [43][44] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. reported a record net profit of 8.67 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and rising prices of copper and cobalt [49][50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in performance for Q2 2025, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year [7] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7 to 3.15 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.32% to 53.2% [7] - The report highlights that the decline in oil prices has led to a narrowing of product price spreads, impacting profitability [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a stable supply-demand balance in the ethane market, which may enhance profitability in the C2 segment [7] - New material projects are facing delays due to trade tensions, but the company has significant growth potential from its high-end new materials industrial park [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 53.971 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.875 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [6] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.04 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 9 [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 22.6% in 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 19.5% in 2025 [6]