行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 07 月 21 日 受油价下跌拖累，2025Q2 石化行 业景气下行，关注未来中下游景气 修复 看好 ——石油化工 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 表 1：主要石油化工品价格走势 | | 价格 | 环比（%） | 同比（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025Q2 | 2025Q1 | 2024Q2 | | Brent 原油（美元/桶） | 66.7 | -11.0% | -21.5% | | WTI 原油（美元/桶） | 63.8 | -10.8% | -20.8% | | NYMEX 天然气（美元/百万英热） ...

化工板块全天强势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后持续上行，尾盘再度拉升，盘 中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.28%，截至收盘，涨1.95%。 成份股方面，行业龙头万华化学全天狂飙，截至收盘，大涨8.29%，肥料、石化等细分板块亦表现不 俗，截至收盘，华鲁恒升大涨超5%，新凤鸣涨超4%，华峰化学、荣盛石化、盐湖股份等多股涨超3%。 资金面上，基础化工板块今日大举吸金。数据显示，截至收盘，基础化工板块单日获主力资金净流入额 达到62.37亿元，净流入额在30个中信一级行业中高居第2。 | 序号 | | 名称 | 主力净流入额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | CI005003 | 有色金属(中信) | 109.64亿 | | 2 | | Cl005006 基础化工(中信) | 62.37亿 | | 3 | | Cl005012 国防军工(中信) | 43.23亿 | | 4 | CI005027 | | 26.81亿 | | ਦ | CI005019 | 食品饮料(中信) | 21.32亿 | 消息面上，近日，欧洲化工巨头科思创位于德国多尔马根的工厂发生电气 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in performance for Q2 2025, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year [7] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7 to 3.15 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.32% to 53.2% [7] - The report highlights that the decline in oil prices has led to a narrowing of product price spreads, impacting profitability [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a stable supply-demand balance in the ethane market, which may enhance profitability in the C2 segment [7] - New material projects are facing delays due to trade tensions, but the company has significant growth potential from its high-end new materials industrial park [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 53.971 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.875 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [6] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.04 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 9 [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 22.6% in 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 19.5% in 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The pesticide industry is experiencing a continuous recovery, with significant improvement in profitability. Several pesticide companies have reported substantial profit increases for the first half of 2025, with Xinda Co. achieving a net profit of approximately 130 million to 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2443.43% to 2834.73%, and Limin Co. reporting a net profit of about 260 million to 280 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 719.25% to 782.27% [1][9][10] - The main reasons for the profit growth in the pesticide sector include increases in both product sales and prices. Although pesticide prices are currently at historical lows, improvements in domestic and international supply and steady growth in end-user demand may lead to price turning points for certain pesticide varieties [1][9][13] - The global pesticide market is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated market size of 1,582.375 billion yuan in 2024, expected to reach 1,998.533 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.97% [13] Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange has seen a weekly increase of 2.60%, ranking second among five major industries, only behind the consumer services sector, which rose by 3.59% [2][21] - The performance of sub-sectors within the chemical new materials industry has been mixed, with notable increases in metal new materials (+4.21%), non-metal materials (+6.65%), and rubber and plastic products (+1.03%), while textile manufacturing and professional technical services experienced declines [2][22][23] - Key companies in the chemical new materials sector have shown significant stock performance, with Benlang New Materials rising by 35.14%, Silane Technology by 11.74%, and Kaida Catalysis by 9.26% [2][23][27] Group 3 - Jiashan Co. plans to establish a new electronic materials intermediate project with an annual production capacity of 1,000 tons, focusing on photolithography raw materials, with an estimated total investment of approximately 80 million yuan [3][47] - The company aims to enhance its product variety and strengthen its market position in the high-end photolithography raw materials sector, which is experiencing significant growth opportunities [3][47]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 桐昆股份(601233.SH) 2025 年 05 月 12 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：石油石化/炼化及贸易 当前价格(元)：10.83 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 桐昆股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 8.30 | -11.95 | -11.16 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 3.98 | -9.47 | -9.96 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《桐昆股份(601233.SH)：静待桐花 映日开，方得昆玉照朝晖》，2025.1.27 桐昆股份(601233.SH)：盈利水 平显著提升，稳步扩产龙头巩固 投资要点 事件： 点评： 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 101.31 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China and is expected to benefit from industry recovery and new capacity investments in regions like Fujian and Anhui [9] - The report anticipates a steady increase in net profit for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 2.02 billion yuan, 2.99 billion yuan, and 3.41 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.42 yuan [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 25.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 611 million yuan [6] - The company’s polyester production capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, and it plans to add two new production lines in 2025, which are expected to enhance profit margins [6][9] Industry Outlook - The growth rate of polyester filament production capacity is expected to slow down, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026, down from 7.1% from 2017 to 2023 [7] - The demand for polyester filament is projected to increase by 18% in 2024, with an absolute increment of nearly 5 million tons, indicating a positive market outlook [7] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with the market share of the top six companies increasing from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, suggesting a more favorable competitive environment for larger manufacturers [7]

鸡苗景气修复仍待拐点，种鸡、种猪与益生909 布局具备一定潜力。1）行业层面，据禽业协会，24 年 我国祖代鸡更新同比+17%至150 万套，25 年鸡苗供应或较宽松。但新西兰、美国禽流感疫情影响下1-2 月祖代鸡更新量同比-74%，我们认为或令2H25 父母代鸡苗供给边际收缩，有望托底商品代鸡苗价格。 2）公司层面，24 年公司祖代种鸡进口回升至23 万套，3 月从法国引进3.6 万套祖代种鸡，为24 年12 月 至今唯一从国外引种企业；同时，24 年东营、河北、山西等多处新场投产，4 月公告拟投资新建100万 套父母代白羽肉鸡产能；我们预计公司鸡苗销量有望同比持续回升。此外，25 年公司种猪产能仍将继 续释放，也有望逐步贡献业绩增量。 1Q25 归母净利-0.13 亿元，基本符合我们预期公司公布1Q25 业绩：1Q25 收入6.23 亿元，归母净利-0.13 亿元，同比分别-9.4%/-112.0%，环比分别-36.6%/-106.5%，业绩基本符合我们预期。公司短期业绩下 滑，一方面系商品代鸡苗销售价格低于去年同期，另一方面在于小白鸡、乳业等副业板块亏损。 发展趋势 鸡苗价格低迷叠加副业亏损，公司短期业 ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 28 日 润丰股份 (301035) —— 25Q1 业绩改善显著，to C 业务占比持续提升，中 长期价值值得期待 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13,296 | 2,686 | 14,579 | 15,860 | 18,093 | | 同比增长率（%） | 15.8 | -0.3 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 14.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 450 | 257 | 929 | 1,116 | 1,419 | | 同比增长率（%） | -41.6 | 68.0 | 106.5 | 20.0 | 27.2 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.61 | 0.91 | 3.31 | 3.97 | 5.06 | | 毛利率（%） | 19.8 | 19.3 | 20.2 | 20.6 | 21.0 | | RO ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 11.88 [6][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 net profit improved year-on-year, primarily due to the realization of revenue from its real estate business, which is entering a monetization phase [1]. - The dye and intermediate product market is showing signs of recovery, contributing positively to the company's performance [2]. - The real estate business is expected to continue generating revenue, with a significant portion of inventory already sold [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 3.24 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 400 million, exceeding expectations [1]. - The sales volume for dyes, additives, and intermediates in Q1 was 56,000 tons, 15,000 tons, and 27,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 0.8%, 0.3%, and 7.8% [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's comprehensive gross margin improved to 28.6%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, due to a decrease in raw material prices [2]. - The company reported a decrease in construction projects in progress, down RMB 260 million year-on-year to RMB 570 million [2]. Real Estate Business - The real estate project "Huaxing New City" has fully topped out, with a sales rate exceeding 90%, indicating strong future revenue potential [3]. - Non-recurring gains increased by RMB 180 million year-on-year to RMB 100 million, primarily due to changes in the fair value of financial assets and liabilities [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 2.15 billion, RMB 2.36 billion, and RMB 2.47 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.66, RMB 0.72, and RMB 0.76 [4]. - The target price of RMB 11.88 corresponds to an 18x PE for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in the dye industry and orderly progress in real estate projects [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 performance with significant year-on-year growth in net profit, driven by improved PVA pricing and successful product launches in the new materials segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached 2 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year but down 4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 118 million yuan, a 150% increase year-on-year but a 31% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-recurring net profit was 117 million yuan, reflecting a 160% year-on-year increase and an 18% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1] - The company's Q1 net profit was in line with expectations of 105 million yuan [1] Product Performance - PVA sales volume increased by 22% year-on-year to 57,000 tons, while revenue from PVA rose by 29% year-on-year to 630 million yuan [2] - The average price of PVA improved by 5% year-on-year to 11,000 yuan per ton [2] - The company achieved a comprehensive gross margin of 15.3%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Dynamics - The PVA market is experiencing a recovery due to demand support and an optimized competitive landscape [3] - PVA exports increased by 16% year-on-year to 60,000 tons, indicating strong international demand [3] - The company aims to launch new projects, including a 20 million square meter PVA optical film production line, in Q2 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 530 million, 670 million, and 770 million yuan for 2025-2027 [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected at 0.25, 0.32, and 0.37 yuan [4] - The target price for the company is set at 5.50 yuan, based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [4]