风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 报告导读： 白酒板块动销和批价上行。大众品板块中零食、乳制品有望迎来春节备货投资 行情。 投资建议： 成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 白酒：春节动销渐起，飞天批价上涨。 本周1月29日白酒板块单日大幅上涨，主要受地产政策、茅台批价、流动性等多重因素催化。据我们观察，茅台价盘 理顺后渠道融合度显著提升，线上i茅台掀起抢购潮，线下经销商出货甚至略快于往年，近期礼赠及饮用需求增加，普飞批价本周一度涨超1700元。展望后 续：1）短期维度，白酒开门红推进中，除强势品牌外多数渠道打款积极性一般，预计动销高峰2月开启，届时若普飞等核心大单品需求持续释放，则有望支 撑价盘，若批价确认企稳，我们认为其对股价的压制将会减轻；2）中期维度，2026年景气修复和库存去化尚需时间，预计酒企通过以价换量或控量的方式维 持渠道韧性，典型的以价换量如高端龙头茅台、五粮液，控量如习酒、郎酒等，5-6月起行业迎来低基数，动销或将逐步企稳，具备较强放量潜力的品牌有望 更快修复，行业预计呈现主动或被动去库之势，为后续发展奠定基础。 大众品：元旦良好人流量利好出行相关食饮需求。 （ ...

格隆汇1月28日｜招商策略研报指出，过去一个月市场总体小幅震荡上行，部分涨价资源品、AI景气催 化的TMT板块表现较好。展望2月份，行业配置重点关注景气修复的线索和春季行情的演绎，聚焦顺周 期+科技领域，同时随着春节临近，增加对部分可选消费的关注。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分 布、估值、交易、周期阶段和赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注电子（半导体）、传媒（广告营销、 游戏、影视）、机械（自动化设备、工程机械）、电力设备（电池、电网设备、光伏设备）、基础化 工、社会服务等。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will slowly rebound to near zero in the first half of 2026, with the AR-gap and Phillips curve models indicating a mild recovery in PPI year-on-year, although the support from macro variables is weaker than the momentum of inflation itself [7][19]. - Beneficiary sectors during the historical periods when PPI rises from negative to positive include non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, electricity, home appliances, agriculture, coal, electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals [7][21]. - The liquidity-sensitive mode of major assets indicates that market sentiment has reached the upper range of historical thresholds, leading to a decrease in the explanatory power of sentiment on equity asset gains, suggesting a potential decline in momentum driven by sentiment [7][39]. Group 2: Inflation and Beneficiary Sectors - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy has led to market expectations of "price recovery," which helps to change the deflationary mindset, although the upward space for inflation is constrained by demand [19]. - Historical analysis shows that during periods when PPI rises from the bottom to near zero, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, steel, electricity, and public utilities exhibit significant positive marginal impacts on overall equity markets [21][27]. - The report identifies that the structural opportunities in the consumer sector are present, while the dividend sector faces both profit and valuation pressures [7][27]. Group 3: Macro and Funding Perspectives - The macro liquidity environment is characterized by a "price soft and volume stable" pattern, with marginal recovery in base currency issuance but still relying on rapid declines in interest rates to improve the overall funding situation [46]. - Global macro liquidity is also showing marginal recovery, primarily driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market [46][48]. - The report notes that the recent surge in new applications for equity funds indicates a warming market sentiment, with expectations that major funds will concentrate their investments around the end of the first quarter of 2026 [53][60]. Group 4: Style Allocation - The report indicates that the information ratio for dividend and consumer sectors continues to decline, with no reversal signals currently, while the information ratio for cyclical sectors is rapidly strengthening, suggesting a shift in focus towards growth sectors to capture momentum gains [74]. - The growth sector's net value is approaching previous highs, but there is still significant room for the information ratio to rise, indicating a potential for better performance in this area [74].

来源：新浪基金 市场有望在寻找主线中震荡上行，整体机会大于风险，操作上可保持积极，在科技成长与景气修复方向 中择优配置。短期来看，市场已进入针对春季行情的做多窗口。在节后增量资金回补下，有放大波动 率、选择方向的需求，整体走势偏乐观。 配置上建议围绕高景气和产业趋势展开，包括机构回补的景气趋势方向，如调整充分、具备估值和景气 度保护的板块（光模块、PCB、锂电储能和材料）等。同时，进行科技成长的纵深挖掘，如AI端侧与应 用、机器人等，以及潜在政策催化方向，跟踪"十五五"规划相关的前沿领域，根据催化事件布局。期货 端存在补涨潜力的铜、铝等工业金属也可关注。 美股市场：有望维持震荡偏强格局，关注宏观数据和盈利 随着假期因素逐步消退和成交量恢复，市场关注点有望重新回到宏观数据、货币政策信号以及企业盈利 预期上。若利率环境保持相对友好，且经济数据未出现明显下行风险，美股在2026年初仍具备维持震荡 偏强格局的基础。但是，考虑到指数仍处于历史相对高位，结构性分化与阶段性波动回升的可能性依然 存在，市场或将在乐观预期与谨慎定价之间反复博弈。 摩根资产管理资深环球市场策略师朱超平在2026年首期《每周市场洞察》中，对海内外 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market is expected to trend upward after a period of consolidation, focusing on three main directions: policy catalysis, economic recovery, and benefits from interest rate cuts [4][14][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government shutdown and its potential impact on asset volatility, while also noting the relatively mild market reaction so far [15][16] - Domestic policies are expected to provide short-term support, with significant attention on the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming APEC meeting for potential U.S.-China progress [16][17] Group 2 - The report identifies ten key stocks for October, including companies from various sectors such as electronics, automotive, and new energy, with no specific ranking among them [5][12] - The electronic sector features companies like Zhongwei Company and Fudan Microelectronics, which are expected to benefit from advancements in technology and market demand [18][22] - The automotive sector includes Moulding Technology, which is positioned to gain from increasing demand for lightweight and customized exterior parts due to the shift towards electric vehicles [34][36] Group 3 - In the electronics sector, Zhongwei Company reported a significant revenue increase of 36.46% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, although net profit saw a decline due to increased costs [18][19] - Fudan Microelectronics is facing intense competition in the market, leading to a slight decrease in revenue and profit, but is advancing its FPGA product line to maintain a competitive edge [22][23] - Moulding Technology is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to new projects with major automotive clients, projecting revenues of 71.4 billion yuan for 2024 [32][34] Group 4 - The report indicates that Meihu Co. is diversifying into new energy vehicles while maintaining strong growth in its traditional pump business, with a projected revenue increase for 2025 [39][40] - Shenzhen New Star is experiencing a significant recovery in performance, with a projected revenue of 15 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by a rebound in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices [43][44] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. reported a record net profit of 8.67 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and rising prices of copper and cobalt [49][50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in performance for Q2 2025, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year [7] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7 to 3.15 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.32% to 53.2% [7] - The report highlights that the decline in oil prices has led to a narrowing of product price spreads, impacting profitability [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a stable supply-demand balance in the ethane market, which may enhance profitability in the C2 segment [7] - New material projects are facing delays due to trade tensions, but the company has significant growth potential from its high-end new materials industrial park [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 53.971 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.875 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [6] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.04 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 9 [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 22.6% in 2025 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 19.5% in 2025 [6]