来源：滚动播报 经合组织最新预测显示，主要经济体的降息周期将在2026年底前结束。该组织指出，尽管经济增长将趋 于放缓，但多数主要央行的政策宽松空间已十分有限。经合组织预计，美联储在2026年底前仅会再降息 两次，随后将在整个2027年将联邦基金利率维持在3.25%至3.5%区间——此举旨在平衡关税引发的通胀 压力与劳动力市场疲软的影响。此外，该组织预计欧元区和加拿大不会进一步降息，而通胀率最终稳定 在2%左右的日本将持续收紧货币政策。对于英国，经合组织表示英国央行的降息"将在2026年上半年停 止"，澳洲联储则将在同年下半年达到类似节点。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔暗示可能推迟降息，通胀压力持续引发市场关注 针对这一情况，经济学家们纷纷发表观点。一些专家认为，美联储需要在控制通胀和刺激经济增长之间 取得平衡。推迟降息可能是为了观察通胀趋势和经济增长情况，以便作出更明智的决策。他们认为，美 联储将继续关注经济数据的变化，并采取适当的措施来确保经济的稳定。 此次鲍威尔的表态对金融市场产生了重要影响。投资者们开始重新评估市场利率的预期，并密切关注通 胀数据的变化。同时，全球其他央行也在关注美联储的决策，以了解全球货币政策的走向。 总之，由于通胀压力的持续存在，美联储可能推迟降息决策。市场需密切关注通胀数据和经济状况的变 化，以了解未来利率走势。美联储将继续致力于确保经济的稳定并促进可持续增长。 【注：本文内容由人工智能辅助生成，仅供学习和参考之用。文中观点和数据仍需经本人甄别与核实， 不代表最终立场。】 当地时间新闻报道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次公开演讲中暗示，由于通胀压力持续存在，美联 储可能会推迟降息。这一表态引发了全球金融市场的广泛关注。 近期，通胀问题已成为美国经济面临的一大挑战。随着全球供应链的混乱和原材料价格的上涨，美国通 胀压力持续加剧。在 ...

Core Insights - Global markets are currently experiencing a short-term oscillation and a complex interplay of major central bank policies, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a rising probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike [1][2] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on December 12-13, while the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on December 19 [2] - Kristina Hooper from Man Group highlights that the rising yield of Japanese government bonds could increase borrowing costs for governments already facing challenges [2] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures are collectively declining, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.07%, and Dow futures down 0.10% [3][4] - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 1.855% following strong auction demand [3][4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stable at 4.08% [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November, with the largest decline in four months due to weak orders [2] - Upcoming economic reports, including the November ADP private sector employment report and the preliminary consumer confidence index for December, are expected to provide further insights into the labor market and inflation [2] Group 4: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Gold prices fell by 0.6% to $4206.48 per ounce, while silver dropped over 1.2% to $57.27 per ounce [4][9] - Bitcoin rebounded by 0.7% to $87053.6, following a significant sell-off that led to nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated [4][13]

年末的"黑色星期五"本是美国一年一度的购物狂欢日，然而，今年美国"黑色星期五"却呈现出了人潮汹 涌、消费降温的矛盾景象。 美国研究消费与物价的专家特蕾·博奇接受采访时说，美国正面临关税带来的物价上涨，零售商从海外 进口商品的成本更高，虽然零售商承担了部分压力，但最终这些压力还是会转嫁到消费者身上。 分析认为，通胀压力、就业增长疲弱、失业率处于四年高位，让更多美国人选择"只看不买"。 美国全国零售商联合会（National Retail Federation）数据显示，消费者在"黑五"人均预计支出从去年的 902 美元下降至 890 美元。与此同时，美国零售销售增速低于预期。专家认为，特朗普政府的关税政策 是商品价格上涨的重要原因。 ...

Group 1 - The capital market is entering the final phase of the annual "grand performance" as 2025 comes to a close [1] - The competition among actively managed equity funds has intensified, with 25 funds doubling their returns by the end of November [2] - The top-performing fund, managed by Ren Jie, achieved a return of 191.71%, with significant holdings in companies like Xinyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang [2][4] Group 2 - The ETF market is experiencing a significant capital migration, with strong performances in the biotechnology sector, where the S&P Biotechnology ETF rose by 14.03% in November [6][7] - Commodity-related ETFs also performed well, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF increasing by 4.30% and grain ETFs showing gains of over 3% [6][7] - Gold-related ETFs have started a new upward trend, with several ETFs gaining over 3.2%, highlighting their safe-haven appeal amid year-end market conditions [6][7] Group 3 - The communication ETF led the market with a 96.11% increase over the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting strong momentum in the AI era [9] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector was a major winner, with various ETFs in this category rising between 85.22% and 87.42% [9] - Resource sectors also performed well, with mining ETFs up by 82.32% and non-ferrous metal ETFs up by 76.83% due to rising global inflation expectations [9] Group 4 - In November, the Nikkei 225 ETF fell by 9.39%, and the fintech sector faced a collective pullback, indicating pressure on traditional consumption and energy sectors [9][10] - The cautious sentiment among investors is reflected in the net inflows to safer assets like short-term bond ETFs and gold ETFs, which saw significant capital inflows [10][11] - The Hong Kong technology sector ETFs attracted substantial net inflows, indicating strong market confidence in this area [10][11]

Group 1 - The ETF market experienced a significant capital migration in November, with strong rebounds in the biotechnology sector, as evidenced by the S&P Biotechnology ETF rising by 14.03% and the Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF increasing by 12.83% [1] - Commodity-related ETFs also performed well, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF up by 4.30%, the Agriculture ETF rising by 3.63%, and the Soybean Meal ETF increasing by 3.37%, reflecting ongoing concerns about geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [1] - The gold sector began a new upward trend after a period of adjustment, with multiple gold-related ETFs, including the Shanghai Gold ETF and Gold ETF, showing gains exceeding 3.2%, highlighting their safe-haven attributes as year-end approaches [2] Group 2 - The November performance of ETFs revealed a cautious investor sentiment, with significant inflows into safer assets such as the Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF, which saw a net inflow of 11.4 billion yuan, and the Short-term Bond ETF with a net inflow of 7 billion yuan [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETFs attracted substantial capital, with net inflows of 5.168 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF and 4.651 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF, indicating recognition of the valuation advantages in the Hong Kong tech sector [3] - Conversely, there were notable outflows from several ETFs, including the CSI 300 ETF with a net outflow of 2.839 billion yuan, the Coal ETF with a net outflow of 2.522 billion yuan, and the SSE 50 ETF with a net outflow of 2.181 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - The average nominal salary in Kyrgyzstan for the first nine months of 2025 reached 42,757 som (approximately 491 USD), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [1] - After adjusting for inflation, the real wage growth was reported at 10.9% [1] - Significant salary increases were observed in sectors such as real estate, construction, administrative and support services, and professional technical services [1] - The growth in nominal and real incomes is supporting consumer demand while also contributing to rising inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures at the production level [1][3] - The core PPI rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, further highlighting ongoing inflation concerns [3] - Wholesale prices for September saw a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, primarily driven by rising gasoline costs, with energy price fluctuations being a major factor in wholesale inflation [5] Group 2 - Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-over-month in September, which is lower than the previous value, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumer spending [7] - The current economic situation in the U.S. presents a complex scenario of inflationary pressures alongside slowing consumption and a weak labor market, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [9]

该行策略师团队指出，尽管黄金目前处于"超买"状态，但市场整体仍"投资不足"，且美国特殊的政策组 合为其提供支撑。美银预计明年黄金均价将达4538美元，并指出矿产供应紧张、库存低迷和需求不均衡 是主要支撑因素。 报告同时提示风险，称美联储的鹰派立场是黄金面临的主要下行压力——加息会提升持有无息资产黄金 的机会成本。此外，美银同步上调了2026年铜、铝、银和铂金价格预测，唯认为钯金市场仍将维持供应 过剩格局。 今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于947附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂946.26元/克， 涨幅1.45%，最高触及947.68元/克，最低下探933.38元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国银行最新报告预测，黄金价格至2026年可能升至每盎司5000美元。该行认为，推动近期金价上涨的 宏观因素将持续存在，主要包括不断增长的政府债务、持续的通胀压力以及相对较低的利率环境。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为940元/克至960元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于930元/克 至950元/克。 ...

Group 1 - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, supports initiating interest rate cuts in December, citing that the risk of sudden deterioration in the labor market outweighs the risk of inflation rebounding [1] - The current balance in the labor market is fragile, with potential for sudden and irreversible deterioration, suggesting that policymakers should act before clear signs of weakness appear [3] - The impact of tariff-driven cost increases has been less than initially expected, as companies have optimized supply chains and absorbed some costs, reducing inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - Despite inflation hovering around 3%, which is above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, Daly believes that the negative impact of a collapsing labor market is more significant than the effects of moderate inflation [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials express caution regarding further rate cuts due to concerns about potential price pressure spreading across the economy, particularly in the service sector [3] - If the economy unexpectedly accelerates next year, current easing measures could force the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, leading to market disruptions and increased economic volatility [3]