Economic Growth - The US economy shows signs of robust recovery with a revised annualized GDP growth rate of 3.3% in Q2, up from the initial estimate of 3% [1] - Business investment continues to be a significant driver of economic growth, increasing by 5.7% in Q2, significantly higher than the preliminary estimate of 1.9% [1] - Domestic Gross Income (GDI) also saw a 4.8% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q2, compared to just 0.2% in Q1, indicating heightened economic activity [1] Corporate Profits - Corporate profits grew by 1.7% in Q2, reversing the significant decline seen in Q1, with non-financial corporate after-tax profits maintaining a ratio of 15.7% of total value added, above pre-pandemic averages [2] - The pass-through of tariff costs remains a key uncertainty, as companies may choose to raise prices rather than absorb costs, potentially exacerbating inflation [2] Trade and Consumer Spending - Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP, marking a historical high, contrasting with the negative impact on the economy in Q1 [2] - Consumer spending showed a modest recovery with an annualized growth rate of 1.6% in Q2, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 1.4%, but still below long-term trends [2] - The "final sales" metric, which excludes trade and inventory fluctuations, grew by 1.9% in Q2, indicating a need for stronger domestic demand [2] Retail Sector Insights - Retailers exhibit mixed attitudes, with Walmart raising its annual sales forecast, while Home Depot emphasizes healthy customer finances; Target's sales, although down year-over-year, exceeded market expectations [3] - Concerns persist regarding the potential impact of tariffs on sales data, with future cost pass-through effects likely to emerge [3] Inflation and Employment - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.5% in Q2, consistent with preliminary estimates, with upcoming PCE data expected to provide insights into Q3 economic trends [3] - Recent unemployment claims data shows a decline in continued claims, adding positive signals for upcoming non-farm payroll data [3]

Group 1 - The market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain the key interest rate at 4% during the September meeting, but the outlook for interest rates has become uncertain, making it difficult for traders to gauge expectations [1] - Short-term, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have weakened, providing upward momentum for the British pound, as investors believe the Bank will adopt a more cautious approach for a longer period [1] - Analysts from ING suggest that the continued cooling of rate cut expectations supports short-term momentum for the pound, with the euro potentially falling below 0.86 against the pound [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates that the UK economy continues to face challenges, with retail sales declining for the 11th consecutive month, and the CBI monthly retail sales balance slightly improving but remaining in negative territory [2] - Retailers are experiencing low sentiment and are facing cost and pricing challenges, with average sales price balances rising significantly, indicating that high cost pressures are forcing retailers to increase prices despite weak demand [2] - The UK economy is facing increasing inflationary pressures, with the Bank of England predicting the consumer price index to reach 4% by September, compounded by rising energy price caps affecting millions of households [2] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding interest rate prospects is highlighted by comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann, who is inclined to keep rates unchanged for an extended period but is prepared to take more aggressive policy actions if domestic demand risks materialize [3] - Mann's views align with those of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who noted the severe challenges posed by potential weak economic growth in the UK [3] - If the Bank of England implements aggressive easing policies in 2026, it could negatively impact the British pound [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Printing Group (00450) reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in losses for the six months ending June 30, 2025, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1] Financial Performance - The group achieved a revenue of HKD 935 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14.63% [1] - The loss attributable to equity holders amounted to HKD 48.779 million, which is an increase of 990.76% compared to the previous year [1] - The loss per share was reported at HKD 0.054 [1] Market Conditions - The group's main clients are international brands from Europe and the United States, facing rising "landed costs" due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [1] - Trade barriers have intensified the operational challenges for clients and have weakened consumer purchasing power due to rising import prices, leading to more cautious consumer sentiment [1] - Supply chain disruptions continue, making consumers more sensitive to inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hongxing Printing Group (00450) reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in losses for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to rising costs and cautious consumer sentiment driven by trade barriers and inflation pressures [1]. Financial Performance - The group achieved a revenue of HKD 935 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14.63% [1]. - The loss attributable to equity holders amounted to HKD 48.779 million, which is an increase of 990.76% compared to the previous year [1]. - The loss per share was reported at HKD 0.054 [1]. Market Conditions - The group's main clients are international brands from Europe and the United States, facing increased "landed costs" due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [1]. - Trade barriers have intensified the operational challenges for clients and have weakened consumer purchasing power due to rising import prices, leading to a more cautious consumer sentiment [1]. - Supply chain disruptions continue, making consumers more sensitive to inflationary pressures [1].

Group 1: Gold Market - The Shanghai gold futures price closed at 779.18 CNY per gram on August 25, with a daily increase of 0.46% and a trading volume of 226,253 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 775.72 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 3.46 CNY compared to the futures price [1] - Current market sentiment is cautious, with gold prices experiencing narrow fluctuations around moving averages, and MACD showing limited movement [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for August recorded an initial value of 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, significantly exceeding the expected 49.5 [2] - The services PMI slightly decreased to 55.4, but the strong recovery in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a nine-month high of 55.4 [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, indicating a potential cooling in the job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Following remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased to 90% [3] - Powell indicated a shift in risk balance, suggesting a potential adjustment in policy stance due to rising risks in the job market [3] - The market is closely monitoring Powell's upcoming speech for further insights into monetary policy direction [4]

Core Viewpoint - 恒富控股 (00643) has issued a profit warning, expecting a significant increase in net losses for the six months ending June 30, 2025, amounting to approximately 30 million HKD, compared to a loss of about 12 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a substantial net loss of approximately 30 million HKD for the upcoming six-month period [1] - The expected loss for the previous six-month period was around 12 million HKD [1] - Revenue is projected to decline by approximately 70% due to a significant reduction in order volume from major clients in the US and Europe [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - The decline in revenue is attributed to changes in procurement strategies by clients, alongside broader macroeconomic challenges [1] - The company's gross margin has decreased, influenced by ongoing inflationary pressures on supply chain and subcontractor pricing [1] - There has been a reduction in sales volume of higher-margin children's clothing, contributing to the overall decline in profitability [1] Group 3: Facility and Production Issues - The company faces idle costs associated with its Heshan facility, which will cease handling any further production orders after completing existing ones by May 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is cautiously opening the door to interest rate cuts, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as Chairman Powell signals a careful strategy rather than aggressive easing [3][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Powell describes the labor market as "peculiar," indicating that the seemingly stable unemployment rate masks a decline in both labor supply and demand [5][6]. - He warns against focusing solely on supply-side constraints, such as immigration policy, which may overlook weakening demand signals that could lead to a rapid deterioration in the job market [5][6]. - A cooling labor market could serve as a mechanism to prevent a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices driven by tariffs [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Inflation Concerns - Despite Powell's efforts to build consensus, there is significant resistance within the Federal Reserve regarding the rationale for rate cuts, with some officials arguing that inflation remains too high [6]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expresses skepticism about the temporary nature of tariff-driven price increases, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem notes that businesses are testing their pricing power [6]. - Concerns about inflation are echoed outside the Fed, with economists warning that Powell's dovish stance may underestimate inflation pressures and overstate labor market risks [6]. Group 3: Cautious Easing Approach - Powell's cautious tone this year contrasts sharply with his assertive stance from the previous year, reflecting a fundamental shift in economic conditions [7]. - The current environment of "high inflation, low interest rates" necessitates a more restrained approach to monetary easing, limiting the potential for significant declines in mortgage rates and borrowing costs [7]. - There are warnings that premature rate cuts could lead to a reversal in policy direction, potentially damaging the Fed's credibility and leading to perceptions of tolerance for inflation above the 2% target [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is cautiously opening the door to interest rate cuts, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as indicated by Chairman Powell's recent statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Powell describes the labor market as "peculiar," with a stable unemployment rate masking a decline in both labor supply and demand [2]. - He warns against focusing solely on supply-side constraints, such as immigration policy, which may overlook weakening demand signals that could lead to a rapid deterioration in the job market [2]. - A cooling labor market could help prevent a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices driven by tariffs [2]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Inflation Concerns - Despite Powell's efforts to build consensus, there is significant resistance within the Federal Reserve regarding the rationale for rate cuts, with some officials arguing that inflation remains too high [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that price pressures are increasing and questioned whether tariff-driven price hikes are merely temporary [3]. - External economists, like Michael Strain, believe Powell's remarks underestimate inflation pressures and overstate the risks of a weakening labor market [3]. Group 3: Cautious Easing Strategy - Powell's cautious tone this year contrasts sharply with his more decisive stance from the previous year, reflecting a fundamental shift in economic conditions [5]. - The current environment of high inflation and lower interest rates necessitates a more restrained approach to monetary easing [5]. - The market should not expect rapid rate cuts unless there is a significant and sudden deterioration in the labor market [6].

Group 1 - The US manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 53.3, indicating a recovery in industrial momentum [1] - Initial jobless claims increased to 235,000, the highest in eight weeks, suggesting a cooling labor market [1] - The mixed economic signals present a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing inflation pressures against employment slowdown risks [1] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from 82% to 74%, reflecting a slight reduction in market confidence [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that the September meeting remains "open," highlighting the contradictory economic signals [1] - Boston Fed President Collins suggested that if the labor market continues to face pressure, a rate cut in September remains a reasonable option [1] Group 3 - The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK rose to -17 in August, the highest in a year, benefiting from the Bank of England's rate cuts [1] - Despite the rise in consumer confidence, concerns about persistent inflation, rising employment risks, and fiscal pressures limit the sustainability of this recovery [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate shows signs of weakness, currently trading below the 20-day moving average [1] Group 4 - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI remains around 45, indicating a neutral to weak price range [2] - A rebound above 1.3450 could test the resistance at 1.3520, while a drop below 1.3380 may accelerate the decline towards 1.3300 [2] - The current rebound in GBP/USD appears to be more of a technical correction rather than driven by fundamental factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]