通胀压力
Search documents
巴西8月失业率5.6% 与2012年以来最低水平持平
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-30 17:58
Core Viewpoint - Brazil's unemployment rate in August remained at 5.6%, matching the lowest level since the data collection began in 2012, indicating a strong labor market recovery [1] Employment Data - The number of unemployed individuals in Brazil decreased to 6.1 million, the lowest in nearly 12 years, while the total employment reached 102.4 million [1] - The employment rate for the working-age population held steady at a historical high of 58.1%, with formal employment contracts increasing to 39.1 million [1] Job Creation - In August, Brazil added 147,000 formal jobs, contributing to a total increase of 1.4 million jobs over the past 12 months [1] Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the economic vitality in Brazil to government stimulus measures, demographic changes, and technological advancements [1] - Increased job opportunities and income are stimulating consumer spending, although strong demand is also raising inflationary pressures [1] Monetary Policy - To combat rising prices, the Central Bank of Brazil raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 15% in June [1]
澳洲联储如期维持利率不变 警告通胀压力再度抬头
智通财经网· 2025-09-30 06:41
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% following three rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach due to stronger-than-expected inflation and economic data [1][2] Economic Indicators - The RBA noted signs of a recovery in private demand and stable labor market conditions, which influenced their decision to keep the cash rate unchanged [1] - Recent data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose for the second consecutive month in August, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target range of 2% to 3% [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in August, reflecting a tight labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the RBA's decision, the Australian dollar rose to 0.6607 against the US dollar, and the yield on three-year government bonds increased slightly to 3.59% [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut in November, with the probability now below 50%, and have fully priced in the next rate cut to occur in May next year instead of February [1] Future Outlook - The RBA is expected to adopt a cautious stance moving forward, with any future easing likely to be implemented gradually [2] - Upcoming economic data, including third-quarter inflation figures and employment reports, will be critical for the RBA's future decisions [1][2] Global Economic Context - International factors such as protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions are contributing to economic uncertainty, although the worst-case scenarios regarding tariffs have not materialized for Australia [2][3]
大越期货贵金属周报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the expectation of interest rate cuts was high, the PCE met expectations, copper prices rose significantly, and the prices of gold and silver continued to expand their gains. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but they may experience significant fluctuations. Given the approaching National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the approaching deadline for the US government shutdown, and the concentration of important US data such as non - farm payrolls, coupled with high market attention, investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: The prices of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai Gold 2512, Shanghai Silver 2512, etc., showed varying degrees of increase. For example, Shanghai Gold 2512 rose 3.17%, and Shanghai Silver 2512 rose 6.98%. The US dollar index rose 0.55%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB depreciated 0.3% [4][13]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: The US second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, with a PCE price index of 2.6%. The US August core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [13][14]. - **Policy and Political Events**: The White House warned of potential permanent layoffs during a government shutdown, escalating the budget deadlock. All living former Fed chairmen and many former US Treasury secretaries, White House economic advisers, and economists urged the US Supreme Court not to allow Trump to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The US finalized a tariff agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1, and exempting some EU products from tariffs from September 1 [13][14][15]. - **Other Economic Data**: The US August new home sales annualized total was 800,000, far exceeding expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, both lower than expected. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose to 51.4 [15][16]. 3.2 Weekly Review - **Market Trends**: The expectation of interest rate cuts increased again last week, and gold and silver prices rose. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the US government shutdown deadline, and the concentration of important US data, the upward trend of gold and silver prices remains, but there may be significant fluctuations. Silver prices rose sharply on Friday night, but there was a reduction in positions on that day, so investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of Shanghai Gold decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The net position of Shanghai Silver decreased significantly, with both long and short positions increasing. As of September 23, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Macroeconomic Data**: The US second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, with a PCE price index of 2.6%. The US August core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [13][14]. - **Industry - related Data**: The US August new home sales annualized total was 800,000, far exceeding expectations, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, and the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, both lower than expected. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI preliminary value rose to 51.4 [15][16]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold and Silver Positions**: The net position of Shanghai Gold decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The net position of Shanghai Silver decreased significantly, with both long and short positions increasing. There were obvious single - day increases in positions for both Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver during the week, but there was a reduction in positions on Friday night despite the sharp rise in prices [13]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13][31]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position increased significantly in an oscillatory manner, while the silver ETF position decreased slightly in an oscillatory manner [34][36]. - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase significantly, the COMEX gold inventory continued to increase, the Shanghai Silver inventory increased significantly, and the COMEX silver inventory increased slightly [38][39][41]. 3.5 Summary - The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but they may experience significant fluctuations during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays due to the approaching US government shutdown deadline and the concentration of important US data. Given the reduction in positions on Friday night despite the sharp rise in silver prices, investors should operate with caution and hold light positions during the holidays [13].
申银万国期货首席点评:规模以上工业企业利润同比增长
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:17
Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].
美国8月核心PCE物价指数环比增0.2%符合预期,消费支出温和增长0.4%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 13:21
Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]
【环球财经】巴西央行预计2026年经济增速放缓至1.5%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 06:27
巴西财政部长费尔南多·阿达本周公开批评称,15%的基准利率"甚至不应处于这一水平",当前经济存在 降息空间。他表示,经济团队正在寻求每年3%以上的 GDP增长率,高利率不仅抑制经济扩张,也威胁 政府在2026年大选年的民众就业和收入目标。 央行行长加布里埃尔·加利波洛(Gabriel Galípolo)此前就通胀目标连续超标向财政部长提交公开信,解 释其原因包括经济过热、汇率波动、电力成本上升及极端气候冲击。加利波洛认为,维持高利率对控制 通胀、保护劳动者购买力至关重要。他强调,"历史经验表明,高通胀才是损害劳动者收入的最大威 胁。在就业和工资保持强劲的情况下,收紧政策仍是必要措施。" 新华财经圣保罗9月26日电 巴西中央银行25日发布的三季度货币政策报告(Monetary Policy Report)将 巴西2025年国内生产总值(GDP)增速预期由2.1%下调至2%。同时,巴西央行首次公布的2026年经济 增速预期仅为1.5%。 报告指出,受持续的高利率政策、全球经济放缓和2025年农业高增长难以延续等因素影响,巴西经济增 长在2026年可能明显减弱。今年下半年,尽管农业和采掘业表现良好,但美国加征关税的 ...
首席点评:公募基金规模首破36万亿
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Crude oil, methanol, gold, silver, copper, iron ore, corn, lithium carbonate [6] - **Bearish Outlook**: Zinc, cotton, apple, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM) [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The scale of China's public - offering funds has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with bond funds slightly decreasing due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The US GDP growth rate in Q2 was revised up, and the PCE price index indicated persistent inflation. The market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1]. - For the stock index, September was more volatile, in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - The SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia will ban diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - The glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash was being digested. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day 3.1.1 International News - The US GDP in Q2 was revised up to an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [7]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce included three US entities in the export control list and three Taiwan - related US entities in the unreliable entity list [8]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed measures to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and relevant departments are studying regulatory measures [9]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, ICE No. 11 sugar, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybean oil all rose, while LME copper and CBOT soybean meal fell [11]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index**: After the decline of US indices, the previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The financing balance increased. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has started [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after hitting the bottom. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity. The domestic economic situation was still in adjustment. With the Fed's rate cut, the central bank's policy space has increased, but policy adjustment needs central government deployment. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and neutral on short - term bonds [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose slightly at night. Russia restricted fuel exports, and the global decline rate of oil and gas field production accelerated. Future OPEC production increase should be monitored [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the coastal inventory decreased. It is short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell slightly. Supply may increase, the bonded area inventory decreased, and tire production increased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Prices follow the cost, and future demand and supply policies should be monitored. It may fluctuate within a low - level range [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to rebound, and the supply - demand situation was slowly improving. The inventory of glass and soda ash decreased. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [4][18]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend paused. The Fed's rate - cut stance was cautious, but the rate - cut prospect was clear. The long - term driver for gold was still there, but there was short - term adjustment [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose slightly at night. The smelting output may increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. It may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased. Inventory was being digested rapidly. It may fluctuate in the short - term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi should be monitored [23]. 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices were weak. The fundamentals of finished steel products improved, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills resumed production, and iron ore demand was supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remained stable, and supply pressure increased. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market is expected to be bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal fell at night, and rapeseed meal was strong. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period ended early. Domestic soybean meal may fluctuate at a low level [28]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils were strong at night. The impact of floods in Malaysia on palm oil production was limited. After digesting the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, oil prices rebounded [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but pressured by imports. Zhengzhou sugar may fluctuate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. International supply pressure still exists, and domestic new - cotton purchase is in focus. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded. Shipping companies signaled post - holiday price support, but success depends on cargo volume and capacity control. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [32].
公募基金规模首破36万亿 -20250926
申银万国期货研究· 2025-09-26 00:49
Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, reaching 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a monthly increase of 1.18 trillion yuan [1] - The scale of bond funds has slightly decreased by 28.5 billion yuan due to the stock-bond seesaw effect [1] - The U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter has been revised up to 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, indicating stronger inflationary pressures with a PCE price index of 2.6% [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market indices have experienced three consecutive declines, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising and prices for gold and crude oil increasing [1] - The financing balance in the Chinese market increased by 14.08 billion yuan to 24,141.23 billion yuan, indicating a more volatile market in September compared to July and August [2][11] - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a prolonged period of rising, with a divergence in bullish and bearish forces [2][11] Group 3 - The international oil market is affected by Russia's partial ban on diesel exports and extended ban on gasoline exports, leading to fuel shortages in certain regions [3][14] - The U.S. initial jobless claims have decreased to 218,000, the lowest since July, indicating a tightening labor market [3][14] - The International Energy Agency reports a significant acceleration in the decline of global oil and gas field production, primarily due to increased reliance on shale oil and deep-sea resources [3][14] Group 4 - The glass futures market continues to rebound, with production enterprise inventories decreasing by 1.42 million heavy boxes to 53.29 million heavy boxes [4][18] - The soda ash futures market has also seen a slight rebound, with inventories down by 54,000 tons to 1.444 million tons [4][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, leading to positive expectations for future supply changes in the glass industry [4][18]
深夜!全线大跌!美股芯片股突遭猛烈抛售 发生了什么?
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-09-25 23:10
Group 1 - The semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 2% and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also falling more than 2% [2][3] - Other major tech stocks also declined, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3%, indicating a broader weakness in the tech sector [3] - The market sentiment was negatively impacted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's warning about high valuation risks and the increasing likelihood of a US government shutdown, with a 76% probability of a government shutdown by 2025 according to Polymarket [4][3] Group 2 - Analysts are reassessing the collaboration between Oracle, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, which forms a business loop where OpenAI purchases cloud services from Oracle, Oracle buys GPUs from NVIDIA, and NVIDIA continues to invest in OpenAI [4] - The potential government shutdown is a growing concern, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, as negotiations between Republicans and Democrats remain stalled [4][5] - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 3.8% for Q2, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further, as inflation pressures appear more persistent than previously assessed [7][8]
美国重磅数据出炉 美股三大指数收跌 特斯拉市值一夜蒸发超4600亿元!白银期货大涨!美联储官员最新发声......
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-25 22:55
当地时间9月25日,美股三大指数集体收跌,道指跌0.38%,纳指跌0.5%,标普500指数跌0.5%。 个股上,甲骨文跌超5%;特斯拉跌超4%,市值一夜蒸发645亿美元(约合人民币4602亿元);Meta跌超1%;苹果涨超1%。 英特尔大涨近9%。消息面上,英特尔公司已就获得苹果公司的投资事宜与其接触。知情人士称,此举是为加强这家目前部分由美国政府持股的芯片企业的 业务基础。这些知情人士表示,苹果与英特尔还讨论了如何进一步深化合作。相关磋商仍处于早期阶段,未必会达成协议。如果协议达成,这笔交易将延 续近期对英特尔的外部注资浪潮:上周,英伟达宣布出资50亿美元,并计划与英特尔在个人电脑与数据中心芯片上展开合作。上个月,日本科技巨头软银 集团也宣布向英特尔投资20亿美元。 知情人士还称,英特尔已与其他多家公司接触潜在的投资与合作。 美国二季度核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年化季环比终值为2.6%,高于预期的2.5%,前值为2.5%。 有分析指出,这份强劲的报告也显示出通胀压力比之前评估的更为顽固。 华尔街机构指出,最新发布的数据可能会限制美联储未来的降息空间。尽管美联储上周降息了25个基点,并预计今年还将有两 ...