Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement to reduce auto import tariffs to 15% and exempt certain goods from punitive tariffs. Additionally, positive progress in U.S.-EU trade talks is expected to lead to a deal with a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [3] - Strong economic data has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000, the lowest in three months, and the composite PMI and services PMI both rising in July, indicating accelerated economic activity. This has led to a stronger dollar index (up 0.3%) and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.408%, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3] - President Trump's rare visit to the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, which could provide medium to long-term support for gold prices. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September [4] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. June durable goods orders, which is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health, likely to impact gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weakening trend after forming three consecutive bullish candles, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed. The price has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [5] - Key support levels to monitor include 3339, the lower boundary of the current upward channel, and 3324, a trendline support formed by previous lows. Resistance is significantly higher at around 3450, making a rebound to this level unlikely in the short term [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a series of bearish candles, with a slight recovery after hitting 3351. Confirmation of the 3351 low is crucial; if the price rebounds above this level, resistance can be identified at 3393/3395 and 3402/3406. A drop below 3351 would lead to a focus on the daily support levels mentioned [6] - The one-hour chart suggests that gold may be in a corrective phase, with potential for a rebound from the recent low at 3351. The structure indicates that if the price breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a shift in trend direction [7]

Core Insights - The latest PMI data indicates a strong start for the U.S. economy in Q3, but there are significant uncertainties regarding the sustainability of this growth [1] Economic Growth - The current economic growth is heavily reliant on the services sector, while the manufacturing sector has experienced its first deterioration of the year [1] - The decline in manufacturing is partly attributed to the fading effects of short-term purchases driven by tariff expectations [1] Business Confidence - Business confidence in both manufacturing and services has decreased, reaching one of the lowest levels in two and a half years [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflationary pressures are rising, with companies attributing cost and price increases to tariffs [1] - The price increase for goods and services in July was one of the largest in the past three years, suggesting that consumer price inflation may exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines reported a second-quarter revenue of $7.24 billion, slightly below the expected $7.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.43, lower than the anticipated $0.53. The company expects economic turmoil to consume up to $1 billion of its annual pre-tax profit, leading to a significant reduction in its 2025 shareholder return forecast [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s second-quarter revenue was $7.24 billion, slightly below the expected $7.3 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.43, lower than the analyst expectation of $0.53 [1] - Southwest Airlines anticipates a pre-tax profit of $600 million to $800 million for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of $1.7 billion [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Competition - Southwest Airlines provided a more cautious outlook compared to larger competitors like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, which reported a recovery in travel demand [2] - Factors such as frequent tariff policies, inflation pressures, and operational chaos at some hub airports have negatively impacted consumer confidence and demand [2] - Delta Airlines noted improvements in corporate travel demand, while United Airlines indicated that demand recovery could lead to exceeding its 2025 profit targets [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a significant transformation plan, moving away from its long-standing "one-size-fits-all" business model [2] - Southwest Airlines plans to introduce more spacious premium seating, designated seating services, and new boarding processes starting next year [2] - The company has begun charging for checked baggage since May, with the initiative exceeding expectations without negatively impacting flight operations [3] Group 4: Revenue Projections - Southwest Airlines expects a unit revenue growth range of -2% to 2% for the third quarter, compared to analysts' previous expectation of a 1.7% increase [4] - The company aims to achieve $1.8 billion in pre-tax profit by 2025 and $4.3 billion by 2026 through cost reductions and increased revenue from new fare packages and service fees [3] Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The board of Southwest Airlines has approved a $2 billion stock buyback plan, expected to be completed within two years [5]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around South Korean farmers' concerns regarding potential agricultural market openings in trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States, particularly the import of American apples as a bargaining chip [1][3] - Indonesian and Japanese governments are also considering opening their agricultural markets in negotiations with the U.S., raising alarms among South Korean farmers who fear becoming collateral damage in these talks [1] - The South Korean government has stated that rice and U.S. beef over 30 months old will not be included in the negotiations to protect food security and livestock stability, while apples and genetically modified crops are viewed as negotiable items [3][4] Group 2 - The apple production in Gyeongsangbuk-do, a major apple-producing region in South Korea, amounts to 824.7 billion KRW (approximately 4.29 billion RMB), accounting for over 60% of the national output [4] - There are over 18,000 farming households in Gyeongsangbuk-do, with a total cultivation area of 19,000 hectares, indicating the region's significant reliance on apple farming [4] - The local council in Gyeongsangbuk-do has warned that opening the market to U.S. apples could lead to an "irreversible fatal blow" to the national fruit industry, exacerbating existing challenges faced by farmers [4][5] Group 3 - The high prices of apples in South Korea highlight structural issues within the agricultural sector, with apple prices reportedly close to three times the OECD average [5] - Rising food prices are attributed to high distribution and labor costs, as well as climate change impacts, which have led to significant crop reductions this year [5] - The volatility in agricultural prices is becoming more pronounced due to extreme weather conditions, revealing the increasing fragility of the agricultural industry in South Korea [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has shifted its focus back to tariffs and trade following the passage of the "Great American Rescue Plan," with a series of high-intensity tariff actions initiated in early July [1] Tariff Actions - Trump announced three rounds of tariffs from July 7 to 10, targeting 14 countries with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%, 8 countries with tariffs from 20% to 50%, and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, along with a unified tariff of 15% or 20% for other countries [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to stabilize around 15-16% in the near future, with most newly notified countries having a negligible impact on the overall effective tax rate [1][2] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of new tariffs, major asset prices remained stable, with the U.S. stock market reaching new highs and the long-term U.S. Treasury yield rising slightly to around 4.4% [5] - Investors appear to be desensitized to Trump's tariff policies, viewing them more as negotiation tactics rather than significant threats [5] Tariff Revenue - U.S. tariff revenue surged to $26.6 billion in June, quadrupling the usual level, with total revenue for the first half of the year reaching $87.2 billion [5] - The 10% baseline tariff has generated over $17.7 billion in revenue, with specific tariffs on the automotive sector contributing more than $10.7 billion [5] Future Projections - Analysts predict that if the average effective tariff rate remains between 10-14%, it could yield annual tariff revenues of $300 billion to $400 billion, potentially offsetting the increased spending from the "Great American Rescue Plan," which is estimated to add $340 billion annually [6] - The effective tariff rate is projected to be around 2.3% by the end of 2024, with potential increases if new tariffs are fully implemented [6][10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The impact of tariffs on inflation appears limited, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in June, lower than earlier in the year [11] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts due to the potential for tariffs to exert lasting inflationary pressure, with expectations for a rate hold in July and a possible cut in September [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite rising calls for interest rate cuts from President Trump and speculation about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the Fed's policy rate outlook remains largely unchanged due to increasing inflation pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, as inflation data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.4% to 2.7% in June [2] - The trend of declining commodity prices is reversing, contributing to overall inflation and suggesting that businesses may be passing some costs onto consumers [2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that inflation may be at a "turning point," with nearly half of the goods experiencing annualized price increases of 5% or more, double the rate from January [2] - Fed officials project that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% by the end of the year, but they only anticipate a 0.5 percentage point rate cut, which is significantly less than market expectations [2] - There is a general consensus among Fed officials against aggressive rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index is facing key resistance in the 97.80-98.00 range, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern, creating multiple technical pressure points [3] - Momentum indicators show mild bullish signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering to near the neutral zone of 50, indicating a restoration of market momentum, though it has not yet reached overbought conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the U.S. basic "reciprocal" tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures and suppressing economic growth [1] Economic Impact - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth in light of the new tariff assumptions, reflecting the impact of import tariffs [1] - The core inflation forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 3.4% to 3.3%, while the 2026 forecast has been increased from 2.6% to 2.7%, and the 2027 forecast has been raised from 2.0% to 2.4% [1] - Tariffs are expected to cumulatively raise core prices by 1.7% over the next 2-3 years [1] GDP Growth Projections - The tariffs are projected to reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 0.3 percentage points in 2027 [1] - Consequently, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that strong retail sales and initial jobless claims data have weakened market expectations for a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, while core retail sales rose by 0.5%, better than the expected 0.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, below the market expectation of 235,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates may remain cautious due to inflation pressures and the recent economic data, with a potential economic growth slowdown to 1% and an unemployment rate rise to 4.5% [3] - The upcoming CPI data will be crucial; if the core CPI year-on-year rate rises to 2.9% or higher, expectations for rate cuts may be further delayed, supporting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Conversely, if inflation pressures ease, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September or December, which could boost U.S. stocks and silver prices [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that silver prices are maintaining support at 37.3, with expectations of upward movement after a recent adjustment from a high of 39 [4] - The silver price is projected to have upward potential, with a focus on the resistance level around 38.6, indicating possible formation of two peaks or a single peak at this level [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility due to rumors about the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of further adjustments and potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 16, gold prices opened at $3324.52 per ounce, initially supported by buying pressure but later faced resistance, leading to a low of $3319.51 and a high of $3376.99 during the day [3][5]. - The final closing price for gold was $3347.41, reflecting a daily increase of $22.89, or 0.69%, with a trading range of $57.48 [3][5]. - The market is currently influenced by various economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the PPI, which has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have not broken below the 10-week moving average, indicating potential support and a possible entry point for bullish positions if prices decline further [8][10]. - The daily chart shows that gold is maintaining a triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting that after this period of volatility, there may be an upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3355 and $3366 [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, with expectations that most of these will exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of Powell's dismissal adds uncertainty, which may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the recent inflation data may validate the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, indicating that the current rebound of the US dollar is unlikely to be sustained [1] Group 2 - The US dollar experienced a slight decline against the euro and yen after reaching multi-week highs, as inflation pressures intensified due to tariff policies, leading investors to slightly reduce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding stated that the rise in inflation related to tariff-affected goods supports the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, while the continued slowdown in service-related inflation should support rate cuts in September and beyond [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming PPI data release to assess whether price pressures are genuinely beginning to rise [1] - Deutsche Bank forex analyst Michael Pfister noted that attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence by Trump are unlikely to cease, and given his demand for a 300 basis point rate cut, a 25 basis point cut is unlikely to satisfy him, suggesting that the dollar's current rebound may not last long [1]