Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that MP Materials will receive significant investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, which is expected to enhance the domestic production capacity of rare earth magnets and potentially raise the price ceiling for praseodymium and neodymium products [4][9] - Short-term impacts on the industry are expected to be limited due to the time required for MP Materials' expansion, with the new magnet manufacturing facility projected to be operational by 2028 [5] - The report indicates that the price floor set by the U.S. government for praseodymium and neodymium products is significantly higher than current domestic prices, suggesting a potential upward shift in domestic pricing [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices have declined due to tariff disturbances and seasonal demand weakness, with domestic consumption showing a slight increase as prices fall [6][14] - Aluminum prices have also decreased, influenced by external market conditions and reduced demand from the aluminum rod and plate sectors [20][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases attributed to renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic data [7][26] Minor Metals - The report notes stability in antimony prices, with a prevailing bullish sentiment despite limited market transactions [8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a fundamental recovery, with prices for light rare earths increasing due to the positive sentiment from MP Materials' investment [9][42] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will stabilize in the near term, with a projected trading range of 77,500 to 79,000 CNY/ton [15] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 20,300 to 21,000 CNY/ton [21] - Gold and silver prices are predicted to continue their wide-ranging adjustments, with gold expected to trade between 750 to 800 CNY/gram [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have significantly rebounded due to expectations of an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, driven by Trump's "big and beautiful" legislation [1] - The Senate has narrowly passed a tax and spending bill, which is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, depending on the version [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are also contributing factors to the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a three-year low of 96.37 [1][2] Group 2 - Market participants are divided on the outlook for interest rate cuts, with some believing that weak economic data and dovish Fed comments increase the likelihood of early cuts, while others point to a strong job market and inflation risks delaying cuts [2] - Ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks are expected to maintain gold's safe-haven appeal, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated as the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches [2] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data on July 15 will be crucial in assessing inflation trends and could influence market expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher if core CPI growth is weaker than expected [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that geopolitical risks and trade frictions are driving the rise in gold and silver prices, with both metals reaching historical highs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Gold prices experienced a volatile trend, reaching a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on COMEX and 836.30 yuan per gram on the Shanghai market, driven by tariffs, interest rate cut expectations, and ongoing Middle East conflicts [1] - Silver outperformed, with COMEX silver breaking $37, a thirteen-year high, and Shanghai silver touching 9075 yuan per kilogram, supported by geopolitical risks, surging photovoltaic installations, and a projected supply gap of 117 million ounces [1] Group 2 - In the second half of 2025, the precious metals market is expected to show a pattern of "short-term fluctuations and long-term positivity," with the Federal Reserve likely to implement two more interest rate cuts [2] - Gold is highlighted as a core safe-haven asset, benefiting from weakened dollar credit and global economic uncertainty, while silver is driven by both financial and industrial demand, particularly from the expanding photovoltaic sector [2] - The operational strategy suggests maintaining a bullish stance on precious metals, with COMEX gold likely to fluctuate between $3200 and $3600 per ounce, and COMEX silver targeting $38 to $40 per ounce [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The geopolitical situation overseas has eased, leading to a short-term fluctuation in gold prices. As of June 27, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 2.9% to $3,286.1 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.5% to 954.82 tons [2][3] - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, the highest since February 2025, with expectations of a 2.6% increase. The previous value was revised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2][3] - Following the PCE data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut remained largely unchanged. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a temporary decline in risk aversion, contributing to a slight drop in gold prices this week. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [2][3] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of June 27, the LME copper futures contract rose by 2.3% to $9,879 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 130,100 tons as of June 19, a decrease of 15,800 tons [3][4] - The LME copper inventory stood at 91,300 tons as of June 20, continuing to approach historical lows. The import copper concentrate index reported a negative $44.81 per ton on June 27. The annual negotiations between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters resulted in a mid-year TC long-term price dropping to $0 per ton, indicating a tight balance for copper concentrate in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The easing of geopolitical risks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have improved macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting copper prices. The combination of rigid supply, low inventory, and a weakening dollar is expected to accelerate the price elasticity of copper [3][4] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of June 27, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 1.3% to $2,595 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 463,000 tons as of June 20, an increase of 14,000 tons [4] - The LME aluminum inventory was at 345,200 tons as of June 26, with global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels remaining low. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been operating at high levels, with no immediate expectations for new projects to come online [4] - The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, as many northern aluminum plants have increased their aluminum water ratio, leading to a decrease in ingot production and a potential decline in aluminum ingot inventory. The mid-term outlook for aluminum prices is positive due to a tight supply-demand balance and low global inventory levels [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes are highlighted, with a long-term positive outlook. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [5] - For copper, the gradual recovery of domestic demand and the acceleration of industrialization in emerging markets are expected to open up long-term demand for refined copper. The tight supply of copper concentrate is also noted. Recommended stock: Zijin Mining [5] - In the aluminum sector, the weak supply and strong demand dynamics are anticipated to accelerate, leading to a potential rise in aluminum prices. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is expected to continue a high-level oscillation in the short term, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures indicates that the focus has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and tariff negotiations, with expectations of three rate cuts in the second half of the year [1]. - Guosen Futures highlights that geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, are providing a support level for gold at $3,300 per ounce, while market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year are strengthening [2]. - Everbright Futures notes that the weakening U.S. economic data has bolstered expectations for rate cuts, with the dollar index declining, which supports gold prices [3]. Group 2: Price Levels and Predictions - Gold is expected to oscillate around the $3,300 to $3,400 per ounce range in the short term, with silver fluctuating between $36 and $37 per ounce [2]. - Lombard Odier suggests that gold may enter a price consolidation phase in the near term, with strong support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,400 per ounce [3]. - FXStreet reports that the bearish sentiment is currently dominating the gold market, with prices falling below $3,300, but potential support exists due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening dollar [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on international oil prices and the subsequent effects on the USD/JPY exchange rate, highlighting the complexities in market reactions to these events [1][5]. Group 1: USD/JPY Exchange Rate Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, maintaining a strong short-term technical structure above the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the BOJ signals a prolonged period of monetary easing, the yen may weaken further [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive effect on the yen [5]. - The correlation between the USD and oil prices remains strong, while the yen's safe-haven status is diminishing amid a recovery in market risk appetite [5]. - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections in July may introduce fiscal uncertainties, contributing to a structural outflow of capital from Japan [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Predictions - A report from a financial group indicates that if the USD/JPY cannot break through the resistance level of 144.83 to 145.59, it may face technical adjustment pressures, with support levels at 143.80 and 143.20 [6]. - Should the USD/JPY break above 145.55, there is potential for the exchange rate to rise to the 146 to 148 range [6]. - Analysts predict that the USD/JPY could reach as high as 155 by the end of the year due to ongoing structural capital outflows and political uncertainties [5].

Group 1 - Geopolitical risks have re-emerged as a primary focus in trading, with complex reactions in currency and interest rate markets compared to traditional safe-haven assets [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, with a strong short-term technical structure above key moving averages [4] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [4][5] Group 2 - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive impact on the JPY [6] - The USD is expected to strengthen against the JPY, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 155 by the end of the year due to structural capital outflows from Japan and upcoming fiscal uncertainties [7] - The JPY is underperforming against other major currencies like the EUR and AUD, influenced by the stabilization of Eurozone policies and commodity price movements [6]

Group 1 - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48% to $3452.60 per ounce, and a weekly increase of 3.17% [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 0.21% to $36.37 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 0.64% [1] - Analysts noted that escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, supporting the safe-haven status of precious metals [1] Group 2 - Huishang Futures indicated that the safe-haven attribute of gold will limit its downside potential, predicting continued high-level fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The resilience of the U.S. economy may provide some support for silver's industrial demand, with potential for further correction in the gold-silver ratio [1] - Long-term factors such as stagflation risks, rising dollar credit risks, and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide core support for gold [1] Group 3 - New Century Futures reported that as of June 11, SPDR Gold ETF saw an outflow of 1.45 tons, indicating a bearish sentiment among institutional investors [4] - As of June 3, CFTC's non-commercial net long positions in gold increased by 13,721 contracts to 187,905 contracts, reflecting a bullish sentiment among speculators [4] Group 4 - Industrial Futures stated that the long-term outlook remains favorable for gold prices, maintaining a judgment of upward movement in the gold price's mid-term center [6] - The World Gold Council reported that in May, global physical gold ETFs experienced an outflow of approximately $1.8 billion, ending a five-month streak of net inflows [6] - The total assets under management for global gold ETFs fell to $374 billion by the end of May due to price volatility [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price is in a high - level oscillation this week, while the silver price has skyrocketed continuously, and the gold - silver ratio at a high level has rapidly corrected. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline in the short term, and investors should focus on the opportunity for silver to catch up in price. The market's expectation for the non - farm data is weak, and investors are advised to pay attention to the possibility of data exceeding expectations and conduct risk management in advance. [9][11] - The short - term trend of precious metals is oscillating with a slight upward bias, showing a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The medium - term trend is a high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Property Analysis 3.1.1. Safe - haven Attribute - The safe - haven sentiment during Trump's trade war has been realized. The leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, agreeing to hold a new round of talks as soon as possible and extend mutual visit invitations. However, there are still risks of escalation in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, etc. [4] - The United States was downgraded by Moody's, completely leaving the top - tier AAA credit rating club. The demand for the $16 billion 20 - year bonds auctioned by the US Treasury was weak due to investors' concerns about the increasing US debt burden. The US debt scale has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified the market's doubts about the US dollar credit system. [4] 3.1.2. Monetary Attribute - The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the overall employment data has weakened. The market has reignited the expectation of an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After the number of layoffs and the ADP employment data, the latest number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a seven - month high, and the import decline in April set a record. [5] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally returned to the central bank's 2% target. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to stabilize its next interest rate cut until September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. [5] 3.1.3. Commodity Attribute - Although the consumption of gold jewelry is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold purchase demand at a high level. [5] - The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound from a low level, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic precious metal prices. The easing of the trade war is expected to promote the recovery of silver's industrial demand. [5] 3.1.4. Capital Flow - Recently, the CFTC managed funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in gold and continuously increased their net long positions in silver. In the domestic market, the net long positions in Shanghai gold have continuously increased, and the net long positions in Shanghai silver have remained at a high level. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions. [7] 3.2. Review of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Path from 2024 - 2025 - In 2024/5/1, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of reducing the balance sheet from June 1st, and still expected inflation to decline gradually over time. [13] - In 2024/6/12, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate policy unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of interest rate cuts for the year. [13] - In 2024/7/31, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in reducing inflation, and indicated that an interest rate cut might be an option in September. [13] - In 2024/9/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in subsequent years. [14] - In 2024/11/7, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation". [14] - In 2024/12/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2025. [14] - In 2025/1/29, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since September 2024, and the policy statement removed the expression about "inflation making progress towards the target". [14] - In 2025/3/20, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, planned to slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction from April 1st, and significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for 2025 while raising the inflation forecast. [14] - In 2025/5/7, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, stating that the uncertainty of the economic outlook had further increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation had both increased. [14] 3.3. Support and Resistance Levels - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 755 - 760, and the resistance level is 790 - 800. [9] - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8400 - 8430, and the resistance level is 9500 - 9530. [9]