美联储大戏马上开战！ 隔夜，美股三大指数全线收涨，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.11%，纳斯达克指数涨0.94%，标普500指数涨0.47%，其中纳斯达克指数、标普 500指数均续创历史新高。 本周全球金融市场的核心将聚焦美联储利率决议。近期多项数据显示，美国劳动力市场疲软，刺激了对美联储周三降息的预期。芝商所"美联储观 察"工具显示，降息25个基点的概率高达96%，另外不到4%则是降息50个基点。 隔夜，现货黄金价格强势收于3678.73美元，涨幅约1%，并在盘中一度触及3685.47美元的惊人纪录新高。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续涨势，一度触 及3697.04美元，创下纪录新高，目前在3695美元附近徘徊。 在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕，两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 当地时间9月15日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请，维持了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间，美国参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过对斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事会成员的提名。米兰将参与9月16日开始为期两天的 美联储会议。 白宫 ...

Core Points - Google has become the fourth U.S. company to reach a market capitalization of $3 trillion, with its stock price surging over 4% to a record high, reaching $3.03 trillion in market value [1][2][6] - The rise in Google’s stock is attributed to strong performance in the tech sector, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and robust earnings momentum, particularly in AI [1][9] - Analysts highlight that Google Cloud has emerged as a significant growth engine, with a projected $1,060 billion in pending orders, of which approximately 55% is expected to convert into revenue within two years [6] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached all-time highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.66% and the S&P 500 up 0.45% [8] - Other large tech stocks also saw gains, with Tesla rising over 5% and Amazon increasing by more than 1% [7] Analyst Insights - Analysts note that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to result in at least a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which is contributing to positive market sentiment [9] - The strong earnings growth of 11% in Q2 for S&P 500 companies has led to increased confidence among analysts, prompting upward revisions in earnings expectations [9][10] - Despite warnings of potential short-term market pullbacks, analysts remain optimistic about long-term growth, with some projecting a 9% increase in the S&P 500 by mid-2026 [11]

Group 1 - The core logic of the "Run it hot" strategy is that tax cuts and interest rate reductions will jointly "heat up" the economy, triggering a new wave of growth [1] - The market performance reflects this enthusiasm, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 46,000 points for the first time, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index reaching historical highs [1] - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, there are concerns regarding weak employment reports and tariffs potentially dragging down economic growth, highlighting a divergence in views [1][4] Group 2 - The "Run it hot" trading strategy is based on the belief that the U.S. economy will perform strongly under supportive monetary and fiscal policies, even amidst negative data [3] - Investors' optimism is supported by the notion that the economy is still growing and that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could create a favorable environment for risk assets [4] - However, some analysts warn that investors may be misreading the current economic conditions, with evidence suggesting a gradual economic slowdown that could pressure cyclical sectors [6] Group 3 - Data released indicates concerning signals, such as a revision showing that the U.S. added 910,000 fewer jobs than initially reported over the past year [5] - Bob Elliott expresses skepticism about the optimistic outlook, noting that even a slowdown in growth could disappoint investors expecting significant profit increases [7] - The bond market's performance suggests a more complex investor psychology, as rising bond prices typically indicate expectations of an economic slowdown [7] Group 4 - The rise of AI may be reshaping traditional economic narratives, with indicators of consumer strength remaining robust despite a weak labor market [9] - Lower borrowing costs could further fuel investment in the AI sector, as evidenced by Oracle's announcement of multi-billion dollar contracts, significantly boosting its market value [9] - Economists suggest that the ongoing technology investment cycle provides underlying support for the economy, although concerns about the labor market are increasing [10]

Core Viewpoint - The "Run it hot" trading strategy is driving U.S. stock markets to new highs, fueled by expectations of tax cuts and interest rate reductions that are believed to stimulate economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has surpassed 46,000 points for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices have also reached historical highs [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to its lowest level in three years, indicating strong market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Economic Sentiment - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, there are concerns regarding weak employment reports and potential tariffs that could hinder economic growth [1][2] - Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited Funds, emphasizes that the "Run it hot" strategy relies on the belief that strong monetary and fiscal policies will support economic performance [2] Group 3: Diverging Opinions - Analysts warn that there are troubling signals in the data, such as a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past year, suggesting that investors may be misreading the current economic conditions [2][3] - David Kelly from JPMorgan Asset Management argues that evidence points to a gradual economic slowdown, which may pressure cyclical sectors like manufacturing and retail [3] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The rise in U.S. Treasury bonds aligns with the typical behavior of investors anticipating an economic slowdown, indicating a more complex investor psychology [3][4] - Some traders express confusion over the rise in long-term bonds, questioning if an economic rebound as predicted by "Run it hot" would lead to inflation and higher long-term rates [4] Group 5: AI and Economic Narrative - The emergence of AI may be reshaping traditional economic narratives, with indicators of consumer strength remaining robust despite a weak labor market [5] - Oracle's recent multi-billion dollar contracts in AI highlight its strong market position, contributing to a significant increase in its market value [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and copper are both expected to be strong in the short - term, with a rising trend in the medium - term and a volatile but strong - biased trend in the intraday period. The core reasons are the approaching US interest rate cuts, the approaching industrial peak season for copper, and the increase in market attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last week, gold prices rose and then fell, followed by high - level consolidation. New York gold oscillated below $3700, and Shanghai gold oscillated below 840 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22nd, gold prices have been on an upward trend, breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent resurgence of the AI boom has led to new highs in the US Nasdaq and China's ChiNext, increasing market risk appetite and being negative for gold prices. In the long run, the approaching US interest rate cuts have given strong upward momentum to gold prices. Short - term gold prices are expected to be supported by the 5 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, copper prices increased in volume and rose. Shanghai copper reached above 80,000 yuan, and LME copper reached above $10,000. Technically, copper prices are increasing in volume and price, showing a trend of breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter [4]. - **Driving Factors**: - **Macro - level**: The US August non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, CPI met expectations, and with the approaching September interest - rate meeting, the probability of a rate cut exceeded 90%, and the probability of 3 rate cuts this year increased to 70%. The weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals, which was beneficial to copper prices from a financial perspective [4]. - **Industry - level**: China has entered the industrial peak season. Low domestic copper inventories and the expected replenishment demand before the National Day have increased market optimism about copper inventory reduction, providing inventory support for copper prices. The expected increase in AI's copper consumption and the significant rise in copper - related stocks in the domestic stock market may drive up the price of raw material copper [4]. - **Technical - level**: Copper prices are increasing in volume and price, with a tendency to break through the oscillation range since the second quarter. It is expected that futures prices will run strongly, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the July high [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday trend of being oscillating and slightly stronger. The main reasons are the approaching US interest rate cut and strong upward momentum after breaking through the oscillation range [1][3]. - Copper is also predicted to be short - term strong, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday trend of being oscillating and slightly stronger. This is due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the approaching industrial peak season, and strong upward momentum with increasing positions [1][5]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: rising; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger [1][3]. - **Reference View**: Short - term strength [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the gold price first rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai gold oscillated around the 830 - yuan mark last night. The recent AI boom has led to new highs in the US Nasdaq Index and China's ChiNext Index, increasing market risk appetite and being negative for the gold price. In the long run, the gold price has been rising since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter of this year. The short - term upward momentum is strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [3]. Copper (CU) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: rising; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger [1][5]. - **Reference View**: Short - term strength [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Last night, the copper price continued to rise with increasing positions, and the main contract price was approaching the highs in July and September. At the macro level, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is positive for the copper price. At the industrial level, the support from the domestic industrial peak season for the futures price is continuously strengthening. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro situation and the industry entering the peak season, the futures price is expected to be strong. Technically, the futures price has been rising with increasing positions, and the upward momentum is strong. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous highs [5].

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets Inc. is launching its own social media platform, "Robinhood Social," aimed at creating a community for retail investors similar to Reddit's WallStreetBets, allowing users to share trading strategies and holdings in real-time [1][3]. Group 1: Platform Features - The initial phase of Robinhood Social will invite a select group of customers, with plans to expand access later [1]. - Users will be able to post trades related to stocks, options, or other assets, and these posts will allow for real-time updates and comments [1]. - The platform will feature profiles of influential investors, including public figures like Nancy Pelosi and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, whose trading details will be disclosed as required by U.S. law [2]. Group 2: Community Engagement - Robinhood aims to leverage the strong community engagement seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, where retail investors flocked to platforms like WallStreetBets [3]. - The company believes that Robinhood Social can provide unique, real-time insights that other platforms do not offer, despite users likely maintaining their existing social media accounts [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The platform will also enable retail investors to short stocks, a more advanced investment strategy, and will introduce overnight trading for certain index options starting early next year [4]. - The rise of WallStreetBets has shown that low trading costs, meme culture, and verifiable retail trading can create a powerful community that influences market dynamics [5][6]. Group 4: Market Impact - The emergence of WallStreetBets has been attributed to a combination of factors, including the low-cost trading revolution, meme culture, and significant events like the GameStop incident, which have all contributed to its mainstream popularity [6]. - The platform's design aims to replicate the success of WallStreetBets by fostering a similar environment for retail investors to engage and influence market trends [6].

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets Inc. is launching its own social media platform, "Robinhood Social," aimed at creating a community for retail investors similar to Reddit's WallStreetBets, allowing users to share their trading positions and strategies without leaving the platform [1][3]. Group 1: Platform Features - The initial phase of Robinhood Social will invite a select group of customers to join, with plans for broader access later [1]. - Users will be required to attach a stock, option, or other asset transaction to their posts, which can be updated in real-time [1]. - The platform will allow users to comment on posts, enhancing interaction among retail investors [1]. Group 2: Influencer Engagement - Investors will be able to follow influential figures on the platform, including public personalities like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, whose trading details will be disclosed as required by U.S. law [2]. Group 3: Community and Historical Context - The launch of Robinhood Social reflects the company's original vision of creating a networked community for sharing investment information, which has been a significant aspect of its user engagement [3]. - The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the strong community among Robinhood users, who actively participated in forums like WallStreetBets [3]. Group 4: Credibility and Features - The credibility of Robinhood Social will stem from the transparency of real trades being shared by users, contrasting with potentially manipulated posts on external platforms [4]. - The platform is expected to include features such as private messaging, website or app links, and image sharing, which will be rolled out after initial testing [4]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of WallStreetBets was facilitated by low trading costs, meme culture, and the ability to verify retail investors' real trades, which Robinhood aims to replicate [5][6]. - The platform's design is intended to create a flywheel effect where viewing, mimicking, and participating in trades becomes a self-reinforcing cycle among users [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by "emerging-driven" features in the complex environment of the first half of 2025, with technology, consumption, and pharmaceuticals being the core engines of overall performance growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, major indices in the Hong Kong stock market performed strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 18.68%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index up by 19.05% [2] - The rise in indices was primarily driven by the "AI boom" leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets and a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 731.93 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector was the most explosive, with significant growth across various sub-sectors including AI, e-commerce, and hardware [2] - AI companies saw substantial revenue increases, with SenseTime reporting approximately 1.74 billion CNY in revenue, a 21% year-on-year increase, and a 256% increase in generative AI business revenue [3] - The hardware sector achieved high growth due to "core technology localization," with SMIC reporting revenue of 4.46 billion USD, a 23% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The "new consumption trio" of Pop Mart, Mixue Group, and Laopuhuangjin showed impressive performance, with Pop Mart's revenue reaching 13.88 billion CNY, a 204.4% year-on-year increase [4] - Mixue Group achieved revenue of 14.87 billion CNY, a 39.3% increase, while Laopuhuangjin reported a revenue of 12.354 billion CNY, a 251% increase [4] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry benefited from "R&D transformation and overseas breakthroughs," with innovative drugs and medical devices being key growth pillars [5] - Mindray Medical's international business revenue reached 8.332 billion CNY, accounting for 50% of total revenue, with rapid growth in developing countries [5] Group 5: IPO Market - The IPO market in Hong Kong saw approximately 42 companies go public, raising about 107 billion HKD, with 75% of new listings from emerging industries [7] - Notably, the new listings are reshaping industry performance, with companies like Ningde Times driving growth in upstream lithium mining and downstream electric vehicle procurement costs [7] Group 6: Future Outlook - The emerging industries are expected to continue driving structural growth in the second half of 2025, with technology benefiting from accelerated AI commercialization and the consumer sector focusing on the "self-economy" [8] - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to see increased activity in BD transactions driven by breakthroughs in innovative drugs [8]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market is entering a "critical decision period," with Bitcoin facing resistance around $108,000, while new token WLFI has launched its TGE with support from institutions like Jump Crypto and DWF Labs [2] - Significant unlocks of tokens such as SUI ($145 million) and ZETA ($8.4 million) are creating liquidity pressures, leading to a "blood-sucking effect" in the short term [2] - The correlation between traditional finance and the crypto market is deepening, prompting investors to explore asset allocation channels, including learning about U.S. stock trading [2] Group 2 - Bitcoin's current price is $107,863, with the $100,000 support level seen as a critical threshold; a drop below $98,000 could signal the end of the bull market [3] - Bitcoin ETF has experienced its first net outflow of $127 million after four days of inflows, indicating a cooling in spot trading activity [3] - Ethereum shows relative resilience, priced at $4,397.19 with a year-to-date increase of 31.69%, but analysts warn of a potential retest of the $4,000 support level [5] Group 3 - WLFI has become a significant market variable, launching its trading pairs on platforms like OKX and LBANK, with a total supply of 100 billion tokens and an initial circulating supply of 5% [6] - The trading volume for WLFI reached a turnover rate of 23% within two hours of its launch, indicating strong user interest and platform efficiency [6] - Upcoming macroeconomic risks, including U.S. employment reports and inflation data, are expected to influence market direction, with XBIT providing tools for users to navigate these changes [8]