Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced its worst relative quarterly performance in decades, with strong interest from Wall Street to buy the dip, but finding the right entry point remains challenging due to the looming risks from Trump's tariff policies [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 5.1% this year, while the MSCI global ex-U.S. index has risen by 6.5%, marking the largest quarterly gap since 1988 [3]. - Major technology stocks, once market leaders during the AI boom, have faced significant declines, contributing to the poor performance of the S&P 500 [3][10]. - The so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks have recorded a cumulative year-to-date drop of 17%, raising concerns about entering the market at this time [10]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The upcoming announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump is a focal point for the market, with many investors uncertain about when it will be safe to enter [6][8]. - Analysts express that the uncertainty surrounding tariff details and their impact on corporate earnings is hindering a significant recovery in the U.S. stock market [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Technical indicators suggest that the U.S. stock market has not yet triggered a bottoming signal, with the S&P 500 needing to drop below 5250 points to reach historical low positioning [10]. - The "fear index" VIX has risen above 20, indicating increased anxiety among traders, while the VVIX has shown the largest jump of the year after hovering at six-month lows [10]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - Many investors are feeling frustrated and fatigued due to the current trading environment, lacking clear strategic guidance on how to proceed [12]. - The shift in mindset from greed to fear among traders reflects a growing concern about potential losses, although panic has not yet set in among clients [12].

点击小程序查看报告原文 上周港股震荡走弱，小米高位配股、全球数据中心投资泡沫的讨论、特朗普宣布对进口汽车和零部件征收25%的关税，均抑制了市场情绪。恒生科技上周 下跌2.4%，恒生国企、恒指与MSCI中国指数分别下跌1.6%、1.1%与1.0%，已连续三周回调。行业层面，信息技术（-5.6%）、银行（-2.0%）、保险 （-1.7%）跌幅最大，医疗保健（+3.8%）、原材料（+1.6%）、运输（+1.0%）等上涨。 图表：过去一周信息技术、银行、保险等下跌 资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 图表：恒生指数风险溢价回落至6.2%，接近去年924行情和2023年初市场高点时 资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 近期催化剂相对不足，叠加短期事件如小米配股、特朗普加征关税等带来的情绪扰动，均使得市场在情绪和估值已经透支情况下震荡回调， 这与我们此 前一直提示的港股合理区间为23,000-24,000，乐观25,000，不建议在这个位置追高的判断一致 （《 中国资产重估到哪一步了？ 》）。 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 春节假期以来，DeepSeek引发的AI热潮扭转投资者情绪和宏观叙 ...

Core Viewpoint - CoreWeave, a company providing GPU cloud services, has seen a dramatic increase in revenue but faces significant challenges leading to a disappointing IPO outcome [2][3][8] Financial Performance - CoreWeave's revenue surged from $22.9 million in 2023 to $1.92 billion in 2024, marking a 737% increase [2] - Despite the revenue growth, the company reported a net loss of $863.4 million in 2024, up from a loss of $593.7 million in 2023 [4] - The company carries $8 billion in debt, with some loans having interest rates as high as 14.11% [4] Market Conditions - The technology stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with the Nasdaq index facing its worst quarterly decline since 2022 [4] - Investor sentiment is cautious due to macroeconomic factors and corporate cost-cutting measures, leading to a cold reception for IPOs [4] Customer Dependency - In 2024, 77% of CoreWeave's revenue came from two clients, with Microsoft accounting for 62% of that revenue [4] - Concerns have arisen regarding Microsoft's potential reduction in data center investments due to issues with CoreWeave's service delivery [4] AI Market Dynamics - There are growing doubts about the sustainability of AI infrastructure demand, with Goldman Sachs recently lowering its demand forecasts for AI servers in 2025 and 2026 [5] - The emergence of low-cost AI models is leading to decreased urgency for high-priced computing power [5] Technological Challenges - CoreWeave relies heavily on Nvidia's Hopper chips, but Nvidia has introduced a more advanced Blackwell chip, raising concerns about CoreWeave's competitiveness [6] - The rapid pace of GPU technology advancement necessitates constant upgrades, which can be financially burdensome for companies like CoreWeave [6] Industry Reflection - CoreWeave's struggles reflect broader issues within the AI infrastructure market, highlighting the risks associated with high debt, customer concentration, and rapid technological change [8][10] - The outcome of CoreWeave's IPO is seen as a potential indicator of the overall health of the AI market [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the global consumer market, with strong resilience in high and middle-income consumer categories, while low-income consumers face weakened purchasing power [1][2]. Core Insights - The global consumer market shows significant differentiation, with high and middle-income categories demonstrating strong demand resilience, while low-income consumers are struggling [1][2]. - Essential consumer goods outperformed discretionary goods in Q4, driven by high inflation impacting low-income purchasing power, leading to a preference for cost-effective products [1][3]. - The global beauty market is expected to grow at around 4% in 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed regions [1][12]. Summary by Sections Global Consumer Market Performance - The performance of global consumer goods companies in Q4 shows significant regional disparities, with North America experiencing flat overall demand and Europe outperforming [2]. - Japan's consumption growth is driven by inflation and inbound tourism, while Southeast Asia and India remain active markets [2]. Essential vs. Discretionary Goods - Essential goods performed better than discretionary goods in Q4 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with leading companies in various sectors likely to show more pronounced performance [3]. Sportswear and Apparel Trends - The global sportswear industry saw strong growth in outdoor sports segments, while the mass apparel market remains competitive [4]. - U.S. holiday shopping season promotions boosted sales, but a slight decline is expected in 2025 due to macro uncertainties [4]. Beauty Market Dynamics - The beauty market varies significantly across regions, with North America facing pressure in mass cosmetics, while high-end fragrances continue to grow [7]. - The Chinese beauty market is facing challenges, with a projected retail sales decline in 2024 [8]. Food and Beverage Industry Outlook - The global food and beverage industry faces challenges from low-income consumer pressures in developed markets and slowing income growth in emerging markets [10]. - North American food demand is under pressure, while beverage demand remains relatively stable [10][11]. Future Projections - The beauty industry is expected to see a 4% growth rate in 2025, with emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia becoming key performance drivers for overseas beauty companies [12]. - The food and beverage sector is likely to experience a decline in revenue expectations but maintain earnings per share (EPS) stability due to effective cost management [10].

来源丨新智元（ID：AI_era） 消息一出，英特尔股价在盘后交易中，应声上涨12%。 更令人震撼的是，随着陈立武入主英特尔，芯片界三大顶级巨头已全部由华人执掌： 英伟达黄仁勋、 AMD苏姿丰、英特尔陈立武。 芯片行业精英强势集结，俨然开启了一场「华人一统芯片江湖」的新格局。 英特尔迎来新掌门 编辑丨桃子 好困 三个月后，英特尔终于迎来新任CEO！ 刚刚，英特尔官宣一项重大人事变动—— 任陈立武（Lip-Bu Tan）为新任首席执行官，自2025年3月 18日起正式生效。 这项决定，终于结束了3个月前解雇前CEO Pat Gelsinger后的领导层空缺期。 此次，陈立武将接替临时联合首席执行官David Zinsner和Michelle（MJ）Johnston Holthaus，正式执掌英 特尔帅印。 与此同时，他还将在2024年8月从英特尔董事会卸任后，以新身份重新回归董事会。 值得一提的是，原有的管理团队并未「大换血」。 David Zinsner将担任执行副总裁兼CFO，Johnston Holthaus则继续担任英特尔产品部门的首席执行官。 此外，在新CEO搜寻期间担任董事会临时执行主席的Frank ...

TikTok 处境愈发危险 TikTok 处境愈发危险 美国众议院上周高票通过了一项包含对外援助和 TikTok "不卖就禁" 的法案，旨在以这种方式施压参议 院审议通过。新法案一共收到 360 张赞成票，只有 58 张反对票和 13 张弃权票。反对的人比 3 月那次更 少了（352-65）。 不过此次众议院通过的法案也有 "相对缓和" 的点：将出售 TikTok 的期限从 165 天延长到 270 天，如果 已经确定买家，总统可以再延期 90 天，理论上最长期限达到一年。 电车降价次数超去年全年 万科连续套现之后，还有哪些可以卖 英伟达一天市值少了 2100 亿美元 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 字节跳动明确反对把修改后的法案与美国对外援助预算案等捆绑在一起。 3 月对 TikTo 法案投了反对票、但这次赞成的众议院议员格雷戈里·米克斯（Gregory Meeks）表示，他之 前担心单独的 TikTok 法案授予了总统过于广泛，且可能遭到滥用的权力，但现在相信新版本的法案只 针对 TikTok。而且，新法案为复杂的剥离程序提供了更现实的时间表。 更长的窗口期很重要。3 月版本的 T ...