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全球资产配置每周聚焦:“特朗普服软”交易兴起-20250602
大 类 资 产 配 置 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 02 日 "特朗普服软"交易兴起 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250523-20250530) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾:本周(20250523–20250530)。本周美国政坛持续震动。5 月 28 日,马斯克宣布 离开特朗普政府,政府效率部的"马斯克"改革暂时告一段落。此外,特朗普 23 日表示 ...
被“TACO”惹毛的特朗普,市场不确定性又回升了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-31 03:54
Core Viewpoint - The term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) has emerged in the financial circles of Wall Street, reflecting President Trump's inconsistent trade policies and potentially leading to increased market volatility [1][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, uncertainty regarding trade policies has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to the re-emergence of tariffs and restrictions [1]. - Trump's trade policies have shown a pattern of unpredictability, with threats of 50% tariffs on the EU followed by extensions of implementation deadlines [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" acronym was coined by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times to describe Trump's tendency to issue high-stakes threats only to back down under market pressure or negotiation [4]. - This pattern has become a market norm, where Trump's tariff threats often lead to stock price declines, but subsequent policy reversals result in rapid market rebounds [4][5]. - Despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade threats, the U.S. stock market recently recorded its best May performance since 1997, indicating that market participants are beginning to seek rebound opportunities following Trump's threats [5]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump's reaction to the "TACO" term has been intense, as he perceives it as an attack on his strength as a negotiator, which he finds unacceptable [4][6]. - A source indicated that Trump cannot tolerate the perception that his tariff adjustments reflect weakness, as he prides himself on being a tough negotiator [5]. - Following a court ruling that limited his authority to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, suggesting that he views "TACO" as a personal challenge [6]. Group 4: Implications for Future Trade Policies - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic and social considerations [6].
Vatee:美国法院叫停特朗普关税后,亚太股市和美股期货先涨为敬
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 09:48
尽管特朗普否认"退缩"指控,坚称此举为"谈判策略",但市场已形成条件反射。标普500指数当前水平 甚至高于4月2日特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策前,显示投资者正系统性利用政策波动获利。 美股期货逆转跌势,美债收益率攀升前一日承压的三大股指期货全线反弹:道琼斯指数期货涨1.2%, 标普500期货涨1.6%,纳斯达克100期货飙升1.7%。10年期美债收益率延续升势至4.508%,反映市场对 财政赤字扩大的担忧已超越货币政策影响。 日债风险外溢,全球金融市场面临连锁反应日本国债收益率持续走高引发连锁反应。麦格理分析师警 告,日本投资者可能因本土收益率上升而撤离美债,成为新一轮抛售导火索。法国兴业银行策略师艾德 伍兹(AlbertEdwards)更直言,若日债危机爆发,"可能引发全球金融市场末日"。TidalFinancial Group 投资组合经理戈雅德(MichaelGayed)指出,日债正成为"定时炸弹",其风险外溢将冲击全球市场信 心。 "TACO交易"盛行:押注特朗普政策反复在法院裁决前,华尔街已衍生出一种新型投机策略——"特朗普 总是会退缩(TrumpAlways ChickensOut)交易"。该策略基 ...
押注特朗普总是雷声大雨点小的TACO交易走红,他本人愤怒回应称“这叫谈判”
news flash· 2025-05-28 22:26
美国总统特朗普怒斥华尔街有关他最终不愿落实极端关税威胁的说法,称他的反复横跳是为了争取贸易 让步的战略手段。"这叫谈判,"特朗普5月28日表示,并补充说作为谈判的一部分,他会故意"将数字定 得高到离谱",然后再"稍微下调一点"。特朗普在椭圆形办公室的一次活动中被问到所谓的"TACO"交 易。这种交易是指投资者在他发出关税威胁后趁市场暴跌把握机会,预测他最终会退缩,股市会回升。 ...
“TACO”交易主导,市场完全不把关税当回事
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-28 08:43
Core Viewpoint - The current global market is experiencing a significant structural misalignment, indicating investors' indifference towards tariff policy threats, as evidenced by the stable performance of inflation swaps and strong asset performance in countries most affected by tariffs [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Threats - Despite ongoing tariff threats, the U.S. inflation swap prices have remained largely unchanged since April 2, with the 1-year inflation swap slightly adjusting from 3.40% to 3.36% and the 5-year swap increasing from 2.54% to 2.56% [4][3]. - The phenomenon known as "TACO trading" reflects market behavior where declines follow tariff threats, but subsequent reversals occur when the government retracts its stance, highlighting a pattern of market resilience [2][6]. Group 2: Performance of Affected Assets - Surprisingly, assets in developed economies most vulnerable to tariff impacts have shown strong performance, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada reaching a historical high and increasing by 5.4% year-to-date [8][10]. - The Canadian bond index has also risen by 0.3% year-to-date, and the Canadian dollar has appreciated over 4% against the U.S. dollar, indicating a stronger-than-expected performance despite economic growth forecasts being downgraded [10]. - Germany's DAX index reached a historical high, only down 0.4% from that level, outperforming other major indices like Stoxx 600 and CAC40, which is notable given Germany's reliance on trade [11][10].
事关特朗普,“TACO”一词爆火,啥意思?
华尔街见闻· 2025-05-28 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), which refers to President Trump's tendency to backtrack on previously announced policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade, leading to significant market fluctuations [4][11][22]. Group 1: TACO Concept and Market Reactions - "TACO" was coined by Robert Armstrong from the Financial Times, highlighting the market's realization that the U.S. government is quick to retreat from economic pressures when tariffs cause pain [4]. - The "TACO trade" has been observed multiple times, notably in early April when Trump announced and then postponed tariffs, causing market volatility [6][11]. - A recent instance occurred when Trump suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.6% [9][12]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Economic Implications - Following the initial announcement of tariffs, Trump delayed their implementation, resulting in a market rebound, with the Dow rising 1.78% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.47% [12]. - Economic experts, including Justin Wolfer, noted the confusion caused by Trump's inconsistent policy statements, which differ significantly from past presidential behaviors [16][17]. - Goldman Sachs has repeatedly changed its stance on the impact of tariffs, initially predicting sustained inflation but later suggesting that the inflationary impact would be temporary, with a projected core PCE inflation rate of 3.6% later this year [19][20][22]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs' revised outlook indicates a less concerning economic situation, with expectations of GDP growth at only 1% and a mild increase in unemployment to 4.5% [22]. - The firm believes that the current inflation threat is lower than in 2021-2022 due to a relaxed labor market and declining wage indicators [23]. - As tariff effects diminish and inflation slows, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, with the first cut expected in December [24].
“TACO星期二”火了,美国“股债汇”齐升
华尔街见闻· 2025-05-28 02:30
周二,美国股债汇齐涨,再度上演"TACO交易"。 在因阵亡将士纪念日休市一天后,美股在本周首个交易日集体收涨,道指涨1.78%,纳指涨2.47%,标 普500指数涨2.05%,大型科技股普涨。 美债反弹,收益率普跌,长端美债收益率至少跌超8个基点。30年期德债收益率跌超6个基点。 从威胁到妥协:50%关税的48小时反转 这轮市场过山车始于上周五特朗普突然宣布的炸弹消息。在贸易谈判毫无进展的挫败感驱使下,特朗普 宣布将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 市场反应堪称灾难性:道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌256点,跌幅0.6%;标普500指数重挫2.6%;纳斯达克 综合指数下跌1%。这一"天外飞来"的公告让投资者在长周末假期中忐忑不安。 伦敦Saxo Markets的英国投资策略师Neil Wilson在周五特朗普宣布对欧盟征收50%关税的惊人决定后 写道: "希望和预期仍然是,我们将看到'TACO交易'上演。"事实证明,Wilson的预测准确无误。 剧情在周日晚间出现戏剧性反转。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布消息称,应欧盟主席Ursula von der Leyen 的请求,同意将50%关税的实施推迟至7月9日。 "这是 ...
美股周二大涨,TACO现象为其背后力量
news flash· 2025-05-27 21:49
Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in the U.S. stock market on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones increasing by 741 points, is attributed to the "TACO phenomenon," which reflects market reactions to Trump's trade policies [1] Group 1 - The term "TACO trading" stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," describing Trump's tendency to announce high tariffs on foreign goods but later retract or reduce them after market sell-offs [1] - The impact and longevity of the TACO trading phenomenon are yet to be determined, and it remains to be seen if it will reach the prominence of terms like FANG, FAANG, or Magnificent Seven [1]