这个变化，会和我们所有人都有关系。 为什么本周，大A中的消费板块，一路在涨呢。 背后应该和明年刺激消费的主线，有关系。 在年底的重要会议里面，关键的提出了八大任务，其中有一条主线，放到了2026年的最重要位置。 那就是：内需主导。 2026年，我们每一个人，可能真的能实实在在的感受一轮 真正意义上的消费刺激了。 而这会是2026年的关键主线之一。 其实内需这件事，大家听得真的不少，而且也感受到这2年的一些动作。 比如消费券、国补、购物节等等，但大家体感觉得没有什么用。 问题到底出现在哪呢。 原因就2个， 绕开了收入和安全感。 很多人一直想不清楚一个问题，明明中国的GDP已经达到了美国的70% 。 那为什么我们国内的消费却不够给力呢？ 我觉得这里涉及到了分配的问题。 我们 就要 搞清楚 ， 我们G 家 赚钱 的 模式 ，G 家 核心 的 税源 到底 是 怎么 来 的 。 从税收角度来说，我们国家主要收的是标准的 间接税 。 而 间接税 的 特点 ， 就是 和 消费 没什么 关系 。 那么，2026年如果真的要刺激政策，有一个必须要做的。 那就是地方S收，要 和居民收入 绑定在一起。 这样地方才会有动力，才能想出 ...

12月19日，央行开展7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，保持不变。7天逆回购利率保持不变，意味着12月22日LPR下调的概率非常低。 2024年，央行行行长潘功胜表示：未来可考虑明确以央行的某个短期操作利率为主要政策利率，目前看，7天期逆回购操作利率已基本承担了该功能。 12月22日（节假日顺延）将是年内最后一次降息窗口（1年期和5年期LPR）。股民和购房者非常关注这一天降不降息。 原因很简单，每年的1月1日是很多房贷或其它贷款调息日，如果上年LPR下调，那么很多房贷或其它浮动贷款利率也会下调。 不过，最新的迹象显示：12月22日1年期和5年期LPR下调的概率非常低。本月降息与否悬念似乎揭开了。 那么下一个降息的窗口在哪里？ 可能在明年上半年，但在降息之前，降准可能先行开始，有不少学者预测，降息可能在明年1月份开启。 最近，学习时报头版刊文提到："十五五"时期年均经济增长速度达到5%左右是完全有条件的。 国家明确提出：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。坚持内需主导，全方位扩大国内需求，要推动投资止跌回稳。 后来，7天期逆回购操作利率成为LPR定价的锚。由于明后两天是周末，7天期逆回购操作利率在LPR调整窗 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent surge in the A-share consumer sector is the continuous release of supportive policy signals aimed at boosting domestic consumption [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance have jointly issued a notice to implement "three new" pilot projects in 50 cities, emphasizing the importance of reform and innovation to stimulate market vitality [1][2] - The recent policy initiatives align with the central economic work conference's focus on expanding domestic demand and implementing actions to boost consumption [2] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the policy support for the consumer sector is likely to be sustained and may exceed expectations, with a focus on supply and demand policies by 2026 [4] - Specific sectors such as e-commerce integrated with AI, travel industry chains benefiting from policy stimulus, and new retail sectors advancing digital reforms are highlighted as promising investment opportunities [4][5] - The recent collective surge in the consumer sector is seen as a positive market response to the implementation of these policies, indicating a potential deep-seated change driven by policy guidance, technological advancement, and innovative business models [5]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 国债期货周报 经济内生动能偏弱，期债阶段性修复 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、国家发改委投资司指出，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，接下来要从畅通供需循环、投融资循环等方面采取针对性措施，着力 扩大有效投资。要扩大新兴产业有效投资，保持合理政府投资力度，研究调整地方政府专项债券项目"自审自发"试点范围；2、商务部会同财 政部召开"三新"试点工作部署推进会。会议强调，各试点城市要进一步完善实施方案，建立健全工作推进和保障机制，抓紧出台试点资金 （项目）管理办法，紧扣"三新"试点支持方向，精心筛选支持项目，强化项目动态管理；3、市场监管总局强调，要加力推进全国统一大市场 建设，强化公平竞争治理，推动经济循环畅通。要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，推动形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序。 基本面：1、国内:1）11月份，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%；规模以上工业增加值同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices generally declined this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling to varying degrees. The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated. The domestic economic data in November continued to be weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November showed a slowdown, but the market's confidence in the data was affected by the government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased. The market trading activity declined compared with last week [8]. - In November, the external demand in the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December set a positive tone. Next year, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be loose, but the market still has differences on the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the market lacks incremental information, and the interest rate may continue to fluctuate [8]. - The real - estate sector dragged down the overall fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing investment decreased slightly, and the real - estate sector remained at a low level. The production declined, and the differentiation between upstream and downstream enterprises became more serious. The policy of expanding domestic demand is expected to be continuously strengthened, which is expected to drive the growth of the consumer market [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.28%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock - Index Futures fell by 0.10%. A - share major indices generally declined, and the four stock - index futures showed differentiated performance. The domestic economic data in November was weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November had credibility issues due to the government shutdown. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased, and the market trading activity declined. Allocation suggestion: Buy on dips [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.04%, with a weekly change of - 0.07BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.14%. In November, the external demand improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The policies in December were positive, and the expectation of loose monetary policy increased, but there were differences in the market regarding the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the interest rate may continue to fluctuate. Allocation suggestion: Range trading [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose by 1.50%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 0.43%. With the strengthening of crude oil and gold, the commodity index is expected to further strengthen. Attention should be paid to the US CPI and PCE data released on Friday. Allocation suggestion: Wait - and - see [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate fell by 0.12%, and the euro - US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.19%. The weak non - farm payrolls report, lower - than - expected CPI inflation data, and the dovish stance of FOMC officials support the Fed's loose policy path. The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts will suppress the US dollar index. The Bank of Japan's tendency to turn hawkish and the European Central Bank's wait - and - see attitude will support the euro and the yen in the short term. Allocation suggestion: Cautious wait - and - see [8]. Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The central government emphasized expanding domestic demand, stabilizing the real - estate market, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy next year. It will also focus on preventing and resolving financial risks [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's Williams said the current policy stance was appropriate; Trump's new policy may weaken US AI regulation; multiple Fed officials expressed their views on inflation and interest - rate cuts; Europe proposed to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with real - estate investment falling by 15.9%. In November, the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year and decreased by 0.42% month - on - month [12]. - **US**: In November, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, the non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year [11][17]. - **EU**: The eurozone's industrial output in October increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.2 [17]. - **UK**: The November unemployment rate was 4.39%, the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the central bank interest rate was cut to 3.75% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - On December 22, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate and the UK's Q3 GDP annual growth rate final value will be released. - On December 24, 2025, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 will be released. - On December 25, 2025, Japan's November unemployment rate will be released [78].

Core Viewpoint - Improving income distribution is crucial for breaking the current constraints on consumer demand and driving economic growth, as highlighted by experts at the "2026: Forecast and Strategy" conference [1]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's economy is currently characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" dynamic, with insufficient domestic demand being a significant barrier to high-quality development [4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is hovering around zero, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced 27 consecutive quarters of negative growth, leading to structural deflationary pressures that weaken investment and job creation [4]. - The gap between actual economic growth (approximately 5%) and nominal growth indicates a persistent issue where statistical data does not align with public sentiment [4]. Group 2: Consumer Dynamics - Consumption, accounting for about 60% of GDP, is critical for economic stability, yet its growth has slowed from previous double-digit rates, indicating an urgent need for intervention [5]. - Experts attribute the core issue of weak domestic demand to the slowdown in income growth and the need for optimization in income distribution [8]. Group 3: Income Distribution Analysis - The Gini coefficient, a measure of income distribution fairness, is approximately 0.465, with a target of reducing it to below 0.4 by 2030 being proposed [8]. - The urban-rural income ratio stands between 2.3 and 2.4, which is still considered high compared to international standards, with a goal to reduce it below 2 during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8]. - The share of labor income in primary distribution and the share of residents' income in national income have shown potential for significant improvement [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Income Growth - Experts suggest implementing proactive employment policies and investing in human capital to address structural employment issues exacerbated by technological changes [11]. - Recommendations include enhancing social security systems and fiscal policies to improve income redistribution, particularly for low- and middle-income groups [12]. Group 5: Consumer Confidence and Spending - The decline in various income types, including operational, wage, property, and transfer incomes, has directly suppressed consumer confidence and spending ability [9]. - To stimulate consumption, experts propose moving beyond traditional short-term stimulus measures to focus on long-term investments in human development and service consumption [13]. Group 6: Investment and Structural Reforms - Expanding domestic demand requires effective investment coordination and deep systemic reforms, with a focus on stabilizing real estate and capital markets [15]. - Long-term economic growth is tied to technological innovation and industrial upgrades, which are essential for increasing income and creating high-quality jobs [15].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a strong rebound today, while the ChiNext Index experienced a pullback. The consumer sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Dongbai Group and Zhuangyuan Pasture hitting the daily limit. The real estate sector also rose, with companies like Guangyu Group and Zhongtian Service reaching their daily limits. The total trading volume across Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.75 trillion [1]. Hot Topics Consumer Sector - The consumer sector remained active, with stocks like Zhuangyuan Pasture achieving a three-day consecutive limit up, and Jiuzhou King and Shanghai Jiubai also performing well [4][5]. Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear fusion sector experienced a surge, with companies like Xue Ren Group and Wangzi New Materials hitting the daily limit. A merger agreement was announced between Trump Media Technology Group and TAE Technologies, valued at over $6 billion, aiming to build the world's first 50 MW fusion power plant by 2026 to meet the energy demands of AI data centers [7][8]. Autonomous Driving - The autonomous driving sector showed positive performance, with Zhejiang Shibao achieving a four-day consecutive limit up. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology granted conditional approval for the first batch of L3 autonomous driving vehicles, marking a significant step towards commercialization [10][11]. Sector Analysis Consumer Sector - The consumer sector increased by 1.60%, driven by the central government's focus on expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year. Key stocks included Jiuzhou King (+9.97% to 16.98 billion), Zhuangyuan Pasture (+9.99% to 13.65 billion), and Shanghai Jiubai (+10.02% to 11.09 billion) [5][6]. Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately $20.35 billion between 2025 and 2035, with core components like magnetic structures and vacuum chambers accounting for over 50% of the market share. The demand for energy in AI data centers is expected to drive this growth significantly [9]. Autonomous Driving - The approval of L3 autonomous driving vehicles is anticipated to enhance the penetration of smart technologies in the automotive sector, benefiting the entire supply chain. The demand for sensors and high-performance computing chips is expected to rise significantly due to this development [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing fluctuations, and increasing domestic demand to boost consumption has become a crucial driver for economic growth. Recent policies have significantly enhanced support for service consumption, including a notice from the Ministry of Commerce to strengthen financial collaboration and support for service consumption [29][19]. - The consumer services industry index experienced a slight decline of 0.52% from December 5 to December 18, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.66 percentage points [7]. - The report highlights a divergence in the performance of sub-sectors within the consumer services industry, with the education sector showing strength while the tourism and leisure sector faced challenges due to risks associated with major stakeholders [8][11]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the consumer services industry is approximately 37.57 times, remaining stable compared to the previous period but below the average valuation of 43.42 times since 2016 [14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services industry index showed a slight decline, ranking sixteenth among all CITIC first-level industry indices [7]. - Sub-sector performance varied, with comprehensive services and tourism leisure declining by 3.42% and 2.86%, respectively, while the education sector increased by 4.22% [8]. - A total of 31 listed companies in the industry achieved positive returns, with the top five performers being China High-Tech, Zhonggong Education, Tianmu Lake, Qujiang Cultural Tourism, and Doushen Education, with increases ranging from 10.11% to 17.76% [11]. - The industry’s overall PE ratio is approximately 37.57 times, which is lower than the historical average [14]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to enhance support for service consumption, focusing on various sectors including hospitality, education, and tourism [19]. - Hunan Province is promoting strategic mergers and acquisitions in the cultural tourism sector to support quality enterprises [18]. Company Announcements - China Duty Free Group won bids for two duty-free segments at Shanghai Airport, marking a significant expansion in its operations [23]. - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism's major shareholder faces judicial freezes on shares, which may impact the company's stability [24]. Weekly Outlook - The report suggests focusing on themes such as ice and snow tourism and duty-free shopping as potential catalysts for growth in the consumer services sector. Recommended stocks include Jinjiang Hotels, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, and China Duty Free [29][30][32].

Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The meeting emphasized "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic growth, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote an economy led by domestic demand and consumption[6] - The macro policy remains "more proactive and effective," with a focus on enhancing policy effectiveness and maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy[8] - The narrow fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4%, with new local special bonds projected to be issued at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan[8] Group 2: Social Welfare and Consumer Support - The meeting highlighted the importance of "people's livelihood," aiming to resolve issues such as overdue payments to enterprises and wages for migrant workers[9] - Policies to stimulate consumption, such as birth subsidies and trade-in programs, are expected to continue to support social expectations[11] - The government aims to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027[11] Group 3: Risk Management and Structural Adjustments - Despite a temporary easing of external risks, the focus on social welfare remains high, indicating a commitment to stability and consumer confidence[9] - The total issuance of debt related to debt resolution has reached approximately 3.7 trillion yuan as of December 8, 2025, to ensure steady progress in debt resolution and overdue payment clearance[12] - The policy framework aims to unify the effectiveness and strength of measures, focusing on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in economic governance[8]

CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝冲高回落，LME三个月北京时间14：56报于2883美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨0.5美元/吨，涨幅0.02%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约强势反弹震荡；开盘价报21845元/吨，盘中最高22020元/吨，最低 21810元/吨，昨日结算21795元/吨，尾盘收至21915元/吨，涨120元，涨幅0.55%；沪铝主力月2602合约 全天成交量184098手减少57826手，持仓量293990手增加5157手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格21730-21770元/吨，涨120元，贴水125-贴水85，跌5元； 广东现货21625-21675元/吨，涨130元，贴水230-贴水180，涨5元；上海地区21720-21760元/吨，涨120 元，贴水135-贴水95，跌5元。 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布最新数据，11月美国非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于预期的5万人；但 失业率同步升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高。这一数据变化增加了美联储未来降息的可能性，为铝价 提供了一定支撑。此外，今日美国科技股回涨，国内A股三大指数集体反弹，新能源板块表现亮眼，获 ...