智通财经APP获悉，在特朗普扬言解雇美联储主席鲍威尔与经济衰退风险双重夹击下，美元本周持续承 压，跌至2023年12月以来最低点。市场分析师警告，当前极度看空的情绪或正酝酿技术性反弹契机。 瑞穗银行首席亚洲外汇策略师Ken Cheung指出："美元反弹窗口正在打开——即便可能只是短暂行 情。"他分析称，当前美元净空头仓位已堆积至创纪录水平，技术指标显示超卖状态，而美债收益率相 对优势仍然存在，这些要素共同构成了反弹动能，尽管其涨幅可能受到美元负面消息的限制。 彭博美元现货指数的相对强弱指数已跌至 2020 年以来的最低水平，这表明美元自今年 2 月份高点下跌 近 10% 可能有些过度。历史数据显示，2023年7月当彭博美元现货指数RSI(相对强弱指数)跌至类似低 位后，美元在三个月内反弹幅度达7%。 值得注意的是，投机者正在以前所未有的规模做空美元。根据CFTC最新数据，上周美元兑10种主要货 币的净空头仓位激增至400亿美元，创下去年10月以来新高。 华侨银行外汇策略师Christopher Wong提醒："当前美元抛售已显过度痕迹，做空美元成为市场共识交 易，需警惕空头回补引发的踩踏行情。" 图1 在负面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated in a narrow range. The central bank made a net injection of 23.38 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Domestically, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy for Upgrading Free Trade Pilot Zones", aiming to comprehensively improve the institutional opening-up level, systematic reform effectiveness, and quality of the open economy in free trade pilot zones through about five years of pioneering and integrated exploration. Internationally, Apollo Global Management's Chief Economist, Torsten Sløk, warned that Trump's tariffs have significantly increased the risk of an economic recession this year, with the probability rising to 90% [4]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The TS2506 contract closed at 102.432, down 0.20%; the TF2506 contract closed at 106.23, down 0.16%; the T2506 contract closed at 109.025, up 0.07%; and the TL2506 contract closed at 119.7, up 0.14% [5]. 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates slightly declined, and the yield spread narrowed [8]. 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [12]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 14th, and the yield has increased [17].

点击蓝字，关注我们 唐纳德·特朗普总统呼吁美联储主席降息，越来越多迹象显示其贸易战正将美国经济推向衰退边 缘。受此影响，美股大幅下跌，美元与长期国债价格走低。 智通财经APP获悉，唐纳德·特朗普总统呼吁美联储主席降息，与此同时，越来越多迹象显示其 贸易 战正将美国经济推向衰退边缘 。受此影响， 美股大幅下跌，美元与长期国债价格走低，黄金价格则 逆势上涨。 昨夜标普500指数收盘下跌2.4%，纳斯达克100指数跌幅达2.5%，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(Cboe VIX)徘徊在34左右。特斯拉股价在周二盘后财报发布前暴跌5.7%;沙拉连锁餐厅Sweetgreen(SG.US)宣 布首席运营官离职后，股价下跌8.2%。 特朗普对鲍威尔的最新施压，再次引发市场对总统干预美联储政策的担忧。 自上周以来，特朗普的 一系列抨击，让人们开始质疑美联储能否保持政治独立性——而这种独立性正是美国金融市场信心的 基石。与此同时， 美联储青睐的通胀指标最新数据仍高于目标水平。 在财报季，特朗普反复无常的贸易政策令市场愈发紧张不安，财报发布高峰也于周二正式开启。许多 公司已经下调或取消了年度业绩预期，分析师们也在匆忙下调对美国大型企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that President Trump is adept at public relations and manipulating public opinion, particularly in his recent attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which serve to deflect blame for economic turmoil away from himself [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's actions have led to a depreciation of the dollar, which has fallen approximately 6% since "Liberation Day," with specific declines against the euro (4%), Swiss franc (7%), gold (10%), and Mexican peso (3%) [2]. - The depreciation of the dollar makes imports more expensive and exports cheaper for foreign consumers, potentially benefiting certain non-dollar assets like cryptocurrencies [2]. - Long-term interest rates have risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 20 basis points to 4.4% since "Liberation Day," and 30-year fixed mortgage rates rising from 6.7% to 6.9% [7]. Group 2: Political Strategy - Trump has successfully shifted blame for economic issues onto Powell and the Federal Reserve, despite being the one who appointed Powell, creating a narrative that absolves himself of responsibility [3][4]. - The article highlights that having a clear enemy, such as Powell, fuels tribalism and helps maintain Trump's support among his base, with 35% of the public strongly approving of his performance [3][4]. - The potential for Trump to dismiss Powell is seen as a strategy to maintain a scapegoat for future economic turmoil, as it would be difficult for him to blame anyone else if he were to install a puppet successor [6].

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty caused by "reciprocal tariffs" is leading international asset management institutions to adopt a cautious stance towards sensitive assets, while seeking more stable and attractive investments in other regions like Europe and emerging markets to mitigate the impact of ongoing tariff policy fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, with firms like Schroders recommending a gradual reduction in long positions on U.S. financial stocks due to a flatter yield curve [2]. - Allianz Investment suggests a cautious approach to U.S. equities, citing increased uncertainty from tariffs, rising recession risks, and weakening economic growth and inflation outlooks [2]. - Fidelity International notes that the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with indicators such as small business metrics and consumer confidence reflecting this trend [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - Fidelity International highlights significant volatility in the U.S. fixed income market, with the MOVE index nearing pandemic-era highs, enhancing the relative attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - The current yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is around 4%, while the dividend yield of S&P 500 constituents is approximately 1.4%, making Treasuries a favorable investment option [4]. - Allianz Investment maintains a selective investment strategy in fixed income, expressing caution about the overall outlook for U.S. Treasuries while recognizing potential benefits for European local bonds due to U.S. market instability [5]. Group 3: Global Investment Opportunities - Asset management firms are expanding their investment focus globally, with Fidelity International identifying resilient local demand-driven stocks and emerging market local currency bonds as attractive options [6]. - Schroders advocates for a diversified global investment strategy, shifting focus from U.S. markets to European markets and emerging market equities, while also emphasizing the importance of gold as a strategic diversification tool [8]. - Loomis Sayles expresses optimism for global equities for the remainder of the year, favoring value stocks and small-cap stocks over growth and large-cap stocks, while increasing allocation to Europe and China [7].

Group 1 - President Trump is calling for the Federal Reserve Chairman to lower interest rates, amid signs that the trade war is pushing the U.S. economy towards recession [1][2] - The S&P 500 index closed down 2.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 index fell by 2.5%, indicating significant market declines [1][3] - Many companies have lowered or canceled their annual performance forecasts, leading analysts to hastily adjust their earnings growth predictions for large U.S. companies [1][5] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has dropped 9% since Trump announced significant tariffs on most U.S. trading partners, with a total decline of 16% from its February peak [3][5] - Earnings expectations for S&P 500 constituents are at a rare low, close to extreme levels seen outside of recession periods [5] - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Tesla, Alphabet, Boeing, and Intel are crucial for assessing the impact of tariffs and economic slowdown [4][5]

在最新指引中，投资者将清晰地分辨出，哪些关税风险已经被市场充分消化，哪些潜在的冲击尚未被计价。 作者 | 卜淑情 点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 在关税阴霾持续笼罩的背景下，本周将有超过120家标普500成分股公司密集发布财报，其中特斯拉和 Alphabet更是领衔Mag7（美股科技七巨头）开启业绩季。 届时，公司高管们将就关税问题提供相关指引， 投资者将清晰地分辨出，哪些关税风险已经被市场充分消 化，哪些潜在的冲击尚未在股价中得到体现。 01 特斯拉面临"红色警报"时刻 特斯拉将在当地时间周二美股盘后公布2025年一季报，摩根大通等多数机构持悲观态度。在稍早前公布的 研报中， 摩根大通将Q1调整后EPS预期从0.40美元下调至0.36美元，全年的调整后EPS预期从2.35美元 硬·AI 下调至2.30美元。 周二公布财报时，特斯拉将面临诸多问题，包括2025年的销量目标、自动驾驶的进展、自动驾驶出租车网 络的规划，以及关税将如何影响盈利能力。 特朗普重掌白宫后，特斯拉面临强烈的政策风险，其在多个主要市场的销量出现了明显的下滑迹象。此 外，马斯克参与特朗普政府的行为也引发了一些政治层面的冲击。 一项被视为特斯拉 ...

Group 1 - The majority of U.S. CEOs and business owners express pessimism about the current business climate, attributing their lack of confidence to the government's tariff policies, with 67% disapproving of these policies and 76% believing they will negatively impact their business this year [1] - Small business owners are struggling to cope with the high costs imposed by tariffs, which threaten their operations and sustainability [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic situation and business outlook is described as a significant enemy for businesses, making it difficult for owners to calculate future borrowing costs and set prices due to fluctuating tariffs [6] Group 2 - The new tariff policies are expected to have a detrimental effect on the supply of essential baby products in the U.S., with 90% of core baby care items and their components being produced in Asia [7] - A U.S. baby products company has halted some orders from Asia due to the new tariffs, leading to potential stock shortages within three months, as domestic manufacturing capabilities are insufficient to meet demand [9] - There is widespread domestic criticism of the tariff policies, with experts predicting a significant increase in the risk of economic stagnation or recession, as indicated by rising inflation expectations among consumers [10][12]

当时的投资者还没有意识到事情的严重性，直到特朗普再次上任并发动"关税战"，这些标准急剧下降。 截至4月4日，标普500指数市值蒸发了惊人的5.4万亿美元，创下二战以来第五大双日跌幅。基准10年期 美国国债收益率创下自2001年以来的最大单周涨幅，而美元自4月2日以来下跌了约4%。此外，美联储 主席鲍威尔表示关税对经济的影响可能比预期大，加剧了市场当天的跌势。 正是这种不确定性加剧了人们对美国避风港地位的担忧。动荡的股市暴跌是一回事，另一方面，作为避 风港的核心金融资产美元和美国国债也在经历无序下跌。 美元和美债的大起大落已经让一些投资者将美国视为一个新兴经济体。在新兴市场，经济低迷时期利率 会急剧飙升，同时货币贬值，这样的组合在发达国家鲜少出现，更不用说拥有世界主要储备货币的国 家。 自20世纪40年代以来，美元一直是世界主要储备货币，美元约占世界各国央行储备的60%。美元还主导 着外汇交易，超过一半的外贸发票以美元结算。此外，美国国债市场也是全球规模最大、流动性最强的 政府债券市场，是全球金融体系的基石。 然而，美国作为避险地位的这些基础正在崩塌。早在2023年，惠誉评级就将美国政府的主权信用评级从 最高级 ...

看着市场天天横盘，又有GJD护盘，不少股民直接躺平不动了。 可别大意！懂王那边又要搞大动作，市场里藏着的风险和机会，多数人压根没察觉！ 今天就带大家深挖这些关键信号，文末还有超实用的股市数据，不看真的亏！ 一，懂王的压力 懂王又要搞大事情！从现在起，老美ZJH、存款保险公司、期货交易委员会这些部门想出台新规，都得他拍板。 连一向和他不对付的美联储也被卡脖子，虽然还能管货币正策，但银行监管规则得交白宫审查。 他为啥这么着急？全是经济压力给逼的！CNBC调查显示，55%的人都不满意他的经济政策。科技行业项目停摆、钱也不敢投，供应链乱成一 锅粥。 美联储更是直接下调GDP增速，从2.1%跌到1.7%，经济衰退警报已经拉响。 纽约联储预测，到8月美国经济衰退的可能性超过六成！这边衰退警报拉响，那边财政状况也一团糟。 老美75个大城市里，53个都深陷财正赤字泥潭，联邦正府债务更是在2025财年突破20万亿美元大关，经济压力大到爆表！ 老美的专家们急得跳脚！直接发文开炮，痛批关税正策根本没有经济道理，完全是在把经济往衰退的火坑里推。 二，散户要怎么办？ 老美经济内忧外患，资金正疯狂往外跑！高盛数据显示，非老美投资者一口气 ...