Core Insights - As of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, marking a $16.5 billion increase from August, the highest level since December 2015 [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and asset price changes, with a stable economic environment supporting this growth [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, with a total of 7.406 million ounces (approximately 2303.523 tons) as of September, reflecting a strategic balance in reserve optimization [2][3] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves rose by $16.5 billion in September, driven by a combination of asset price changes and currency fluctuations [1] - The dollar index remained stable at 97.8, with the market having priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to a release of downward pressure on the dollar [1][2] Asset Prices - Global asset prices saw an overall increase, with the S&P 500 index rising by 3.5% in September, supported by the Federal Reserve's liquidity release [2] - The Japanese Nikkei index increased by 5.4%, and the European Stoxx index rose by 1.2%, indicating strong performance in major economies [2] Gold Reserves - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, although the increase was lower than previous months [2] - The gold price saw a cumulative increase of over 10% in September, the largest monthly gain in 14 years, indicating strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Economic Outlook - The ongoing uncertainties in global trade and geopolitical factors are expected to drive continued demand for gold from central banks and investors [3] - China's economic stability and high-quality development are anticipated to support the maintenance of foreign exchange reserves [3]

Core Viewpoint - As of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, marking an increase of $16.5 billion from the end of August, representing a 0.5% rise. This is the highest level since December 2015, with a significant annual increase of $136.3 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the rise in global financial asset prices and the depreciation of the dollar, despite the dollar index remaining relatively stable [2][3]. - The foreign exchange reserves have now exceeded $3.3 trillion for two consecutive months, reflecting a stable economic environment in China [2][4]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of September 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 74.06 million ounces, with an increase for 11 consecutive months, although the increase has been modest in recent months [1][4]. - The central bank's continued accumulation of gold is driven by the changing global political and economic landscape, with expectations that international gold prices may remain high for an extended period [5][4]. Group 3: Economic Context - The overall economic stability and progress in high-quality development in China are favorable for maintaining a stable level of foreign exchange reserves [2][4]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and the ongoing geopolitical risks have contributed to fluctuations in international gold prices, influencing China's gold reserve strategy [5][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold showed strength during the National Day holiday, breaking through $4000. After the holiday, domestic gold is expected to open higher, and the upward trend is continued to be bullish [3]. - Silver also followed the upward trend during the holiday, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. After the holiday, silver is also expected to open higher, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen and may outperform gold [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$23.56 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$28.9 per ounce [10]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.154 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -$0.435 per ounce [13]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - For gold, this week, the spot - futures price spread was -$3 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - For silver, this week, the spot - futures price spread was -$61 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [18]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Price Spread - For gold, this week, the inter - month price spread was $7.1 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - For silver, this week, the inter - month price spread was $65 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - The total cost of gold's cross - month positive arbitrage (buying TD and selling SHFE gold) was $5.25 per gram; for buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract, it was $15.06 per gram [30][31]. - The total cost of silver's cross - month positive arbitrage (buying TD and selling SHFE silver) was $74.09 per kilogram; for buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract, it was $179.09 per kilogram [32][33]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction of Spot Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange - This week, for gold on the SGE, the deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the same was true for silver [34]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.1 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 40.14% [36]. - COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.13 million ounces to 530.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio decreased to 35.6% [38]. - Gold futures inventory increased by 11,715 kilograms, and silver futures inventory increased by 43.24 tons to 1,192 tons [40]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions - This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both increased slightly [42]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 1.42 tons [48]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 289 tons [50]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 83.6 last week to 82.2 [53]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was -0.15%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 14.97% [55]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.3 Non - farm Employment Performance - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail due to lack of specific analysis in the text 3.2.6 Fed Rate - cut Probability - The table shows the Fed's rate - cut probabilities at different meeting times and the corresponding implied interest rate changes [77].

其二，今天大家比较关心的是黄金，从目前的情况看，现货黄金已经突破了4000美元每盎司，而纽约期金目前已经正式站上了4000美元，盘中最高到了4020 美元，对于黄金的大涨，原因很复杂，我多少感觉主要还是市场的避险情绪升温，不要看现在的美股很强势，其实大部分资金非常谨慎了，我觉得有相当部 分资金为了对冲风险，将部分资金转移到了黄金的多头，这应该是目前金价持续上涨的核心逻辑。 问题是这跟港股的跳水有什么关系呢？我认为港股跟外围市场的联动性比较强，美股那边存在避险情绪，港股这边自然会受到相关的影响，这个时候部分外 资分流到黄金的多头则是不可避免的。 其三，今天还有一个新的现象，应该是从之前的两三天就开始了，美元指数开始上涨了，从10月6日就开始突破了重要的60日线压制，昨天上涨了0.48%， 今天则继续上涨，已经到了98.8960，试想一下接下来美元指数到了100，市场情绪会发生什么转变呢，换句话说目前已经开始发生了转变。 我觉得昨夜美股的下跌跟这个多少有些关系，一些资金对美股的风险认识越来越明显，不排除从美股撤出重新看涨美元，这个时候就会牵扯到一个问题，就 是美元指数跟港股的负相关情形，从过去的走势看，一直都是美 ...

每经AI快讯，美元指数7日上涨。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.48%，在汇市尾市收 于98.578。 ...

谈及9月外汇储备规模变动的原因，中银证券（601696）全球首席经济学家管涛分析称，这主要是受主 要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数小幅震荡，非美元货币涨跌互现，全球 金融资产价格总体上涨带来的正估值效应。当月，美联储开启年内首次降息，美元指数先跌后涨，收平 于月初的97.8。截至9月底，中国外汇储备余额刷新2015年12月以来新高，表明中国防范化解各种冲击 的能力继续提升。 10月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的统计数据显示，截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美 元，较8月末上升165亿美元，升幅为0.5%。 展望下一阶段外汇储备形势，民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，美国特朗普政府"对等关税"政策基本落 地，多数经济体税率低于4月份最初设定的水平，中美贸易谈判亦稳步推进，国际贸易环境的不确定性 有所收敛，叠加我国贸易伙伴多元化、出口商品结构优化，出口继续发挥稳定跨境资金流动的基本盘作 用。我国稳步扩大金融市场开放，拓宽跨境投融资渠道，人民币多元化资产配置功能凸显，境内证券市 场对外资吸引力有望继续增强。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，有利于外 汇储备规模 ...

Core Insights - As of the end of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3,338.7 billion USD, an increase of 16.5 billion USD from the end of August, representing a growth rate of 0.5% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is primarily driven by the rise in global financial asset prices [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts has contributed to a general rise in major global stock indices and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn has boosted the valuation of China's foreign reserve investments [1] Group 2: Dollar Index and Asset Valuation - Despite the increase in reserves, the U.S. dollar index only fell by 0.03% compared to the end of August, indicating that the impact of previous significant dollar depreciation on the valuation of non-dollar assets in China's reserves has diminished in September [1] - This reduction in the impact of dollar depreciation is a key reason for the narrowing of the increase in foreign reserves compared to the previous month [1]

国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟分析，从汇率折算角度来看，随着美联储开启降息周期消息 被市场逐渐消化，9月份美元指数震荡调整，从月中低点向上蓄力，给外汇储备中的非美货币资产估值 带来一定压力。与此同时，从资产价格变化角度来看，月内全球金融市场资产价格总体保持涨势，资产 价格重估提升了外汇储备规模。两个因素综合作用，使9月份我国外汇储备规模继续上升。 值得注意的是，9月末，我国外储规模已连续两个月升至3.3万亿美元之上，创2015年12月以来最高，较 上年末也大幅增加1363亿美元。 从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国际储备结构角度增持黄金的需求上升。 10月7日，国家外汇管理局统计公布数据显示，截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美元， 较8月末上升165亿美元，升幅为0.5%。同期央行数据显示，9月末黄金储备为7406万盎司，上月末为 7402万盎司。 9月末外储规模出现一定幅度上升，主要受全球金融资产价格上涨带动。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，首先，受美联储重启降息等带动，9月全球主要股指普遍上行，美 债收益率走低，美债价格上扬。这些都会带动我国外储投资的金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, reflecting an increase of $16.5 billion from the end of August, marking a growth rate of 0.5% [1] Economic Context - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is influenced by macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and expectations from major economies, leading to slight fluctuations in the US dollar index and an overall rise in global financial asset prices [1] - The stability and progress of China's economy, along with achievements in high-quality development, contribute positively to maintaining the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1]

每经AI快讯，10月6日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.39%报98.10，非美货币多数下跌，欧元兑美元跌0.25%报 1.1712，英镑兑美元涨0.04%报1.3484，澳元兑美元涨0.25%报0.6618，美元兑日元涨1.94%报150.368， 美元兑加元跌0.04%报1.3943，美元兑瑞郎跌0.04%报0.7951。 ...