Core Viewpoint - The gold market is gaining attention as the National Day holiday approaches, with various brands adjusting their gold jewelry prices, indicating a potential upward trend in consumer demand and pricing [1][3]. Price Trends - Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and others are currently pricing their gold jewelry around 1108 CNY per gram, with slight variations among different brands [2][3]. - Chow Tai Fook confirmed that its "fixed price" gold products will see price increases starting in October, with an average increase expected to exceed 15% [3]. Emerging Trends - The "pain gold" trend is rapidly gaining popularity among young consumers, priced at 2800 CNY per gram, significantly higher than standard gold jewelry prices [4]. - Collaborations between traditional brands and popular culture, such as Chow Tai Fook's partnership with the game "Black Myth: Wukong," have resulted in substantial sales, exceeding 150 million CNY [5]. Market Dynamics - The gold market's performance is positively correlated with gold prices, influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in international gold prices is driven by short-term expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold is shaped by a restructuring of the global monetary credit system, with a weakening of the dollar's dominance and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8].

Group 1 - International gold prices have risen approximately 9% since September, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [1] - On September 23, international gold prices surpassed the $3,800 mark, with COMEX gold futures reaching a high of $3,824.60 per ounce before closing at $3,796.90 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands in China have seen their gold prices reach new highs, with specific prices for brands like Chow Tai Fook at 1,108 CNY per gram and Lao Miao at 1,110 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold prices is supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to renewed trade tensions and geopolitical risks, marking the sixth consecutive week of price increases [1] - The strong consumer spending has driven a 3.8% annualized growth in GDP for the second quarter, with the Atlanta Fed raising its third-quarter GDP growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.9% [1] - The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the rate range to 4.00%-4.25%, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, contributing to a weaker dollar and stable bond yields [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, surpassing $3,700 per ounce, is a response to global monetary policy easing, technological shifts, and the weakening of dollar credibility, indicating a long-term upward trend rather than a peak [1][9]. Historical Market Cycles - The first gold bull market lasted from August 1971 to January 1980, with prices rising from $35 to $850 per ounce, driven by U.S. fiscal deficits and stagflation, reflecting gold's role as a hedge against currency crises [2]. - The second bull market spanned from February 2001 to August 2011, with prices increasing from $251.9 to $1,920.3 per ounce, influenced by economic weakness post-dot-com bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis [2]. - The current bull market, recognized since 2022, is characterized by structural cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system, driven by political instability, fiscal challenges, and technological competition [2]. De-dollarization Trend - The global de-dollarization process is accelerating, with central banks, including China's, increasing gold reserves, reflecting skepticism towards dollar asset safety [3]. - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold holdings, with 43% betting on the rise of yuan and euro reserves, highlighting strategic adjustments due to dollar credit cracks [3]. - The weaponization of the dollar post-Russia-Ukraine conflict has catalyzed the de-dollarization movement, emphasizing gold's strategic value as a "ultimate payment method" [3]. Current Price Drivers - Global monetary policy easing is a primary driver of rising gold prices, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4]. - The weakening U.S. dollar index, which fell from around 108 to approximately 97.62, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand [5]. - Political and economic uncertainties, including U.S. domestic political interference and emerging market financial turmoil, have increased demand for gold as a safe asset [5]. Future Outlook - The U.S. political divide and global economic governance changes are expected to reshape gold's strategic value, with central bank gold purchases potentially transitioning from diversification to strategic accumulation [6]. - In the next six months, gold prices are projected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with potential to exceed $3,800 per ounce if the Fed signals stronger easing [7]. - Long-term projections suggest gold prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce within 3 to 5 years, driven by structural changes in the global monetary system [8]. Price Scenarios - In a baseline scenario, gold prices may fluctuate between $3,500 and $4,500 per ounce over the next 12 months, with a midpoint around $3,750 per ounce [10]. - An optimistic scenario could see prices surpassing $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce due to geopolitical crises or significant Fed rate cuts, while a pessimistic scenario might see a drop to $3,400 to $3,600 per ounce if the U.S. economy stabilizes [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on the Fed's policy rhythm and geopolitical events affecting gold prices, while considering gold as a strategic asset in their portfolios to optimize risk-return structures [11].

【华通白银网9月26日讯】卡斯货运指数（Cass Freight Index）在2025年8月跌至1.017，为过去10年的最低水平之一。由于整个制造业和 零售业的需求疲软，货运量继续下降。 下图显示，这种急剧下降与2008年和2020年经济衰退期间的情况相似。表明经济收缩，商业活动减少。货运指数走弱反映出GDP增速放 缓和信贷环境收紧。 这些数据支撑看涨黄金的观点。货运量的下降预示着潜在的经济衰退。经济疲软增加了美联储进一步降息的可能性。利率下降和不确定 性上升推动了对黄金的需求。随着工业活动放缓，投资者越来越多地转向保值。脆弱的货运市场加强了黄金和白银价格在2025年第四季 度的积极前景。 金价创下3791美元的历史新高，随后回落以建立新的支撑。突破这一水平可能会引发下一波向4000美元的上涨。 黄金技术分析 黄金日线图-看涨盘整 现货金的日线图显示，金价触及3791美元的纪录高位，目前正在高位盘整。在3600美元关口上方的盘整表明，黄金将继续看涨，一旦支 撑位得到确认，该货币对可能会转向上行。 在纪录高位附近的停顿也反映了极度超买的情况，预示着在下一次上涨之前可能出现短期回调。强劲支撑位仍在3,600- ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been on a continuous rise following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with gold futures on COMEX reaching historical highs. The price of spot gold has surged from $2,625 per ounce to over $3,700 per ounce this year, marking an increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date gain of 40% [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The domestic gold jewelry price has also risen, surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram for the first time, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao Gold reporting prices of 1,108 yuan and 1,106 yuan per gram respectively [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract reached a historical high of 856.8 yuan per gram on September 24, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10% since September [3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions, economic recession fears in the U.S., and expectations of interest rate cuts. The ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have further propelled gold prices [4]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's gold reserves rising to 7,402 million ounces as of the end of August, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are at historical highs, there may be potential for short-term fluctuations or corrections. The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on buying during dips rather than chasing high prices [5]. - The upcoming "Golden Week" holiday in China may introduce uncertainties in the domestic commodity market, with potential for gap openings and basis volatility post-holiday [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing the strongest annual increase since 1979, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, global central bank gold purchases, and strong safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% in gold futures [1] - The recent price surge indicates that any price corrections in the coming weeks or months are likely to be shallow adjustments, as new buying interest emerges with each decline, reflecting macroeconomic fundamentals rather than mere speculative bubbles [1] - Silver has shown an even stronger performance, breaking through $44 per ounce with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, supported by structural demand from the photovoltaic industry and electrification processes, highlighting silver's dual identity as both a currency and an industrial metal [1] Group 2 - On Wednesday, gold futures fell from the previous day's historical high, with the main contract for September delivery settling at $3,732.10 per ounce, marking the largest single-day dollar and percentage decline since August 11 [2] - September silver futures also declined by 0.9% to $43.777 per ounce, with both gold and silver settlement prices still ranking as the third highest in history [2] - Investors are awaiting the upcoming U.S. initial jobless claims and the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, for new clues on monetary policy direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF holdings have increased at the fastest pace in three years, reaching a total of 3,779.4 tons, the highest since August 2022 [1] - In the first and second quarters of this year, net inflows into gold ETFs were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, significantly surpassing the same periods last year, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The leading gold ETF in terms of inflow this year is the SPDR Gold Shares in the U.S., with a demand increase of 122.1 tons and a total holding of approximately 994.4 tons [1] Group 2 - The Huazhong Yifu Gold ETF from China also saw significant inflows, with a demand increase of 28.2 tons and a total holding of about 74.7 tons [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that after potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may face technical corrections and profit-taking pressures, with key trading ranges identified between $3,750 and $3,850 [1] - Long-term trends indicate that central banks globally are continuing to increase their gold holdings, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns, which are expected to support strong gold prices [1] Group 3 - Funi Futures believes that gold prices will remain strong and volatile, driven by both the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and ongoing risk events that sustain safe-haven demand [3] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have opened up further possibilities for interest rate cuts, contributing to the prevailing strong sentiment towards gold [3] - The combination of increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and persistent geopolitical conflicts is likely to keep safe-haven demand for gold elevated [3]

Group 1 - Silver prices have shown a continuous upward trend since early June 2025, with London silver rising from $32.9/oz to $44.46/oz, an increase of over 35%, and Shanghai silver increasing from ¥8220/kg to ¥10482/kg, a rise of 27.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points in September, with a cautious yet optimistic tone in their statements, indicating a neutral to slightly hawkish stance [1] - The Fed's internal divisions suggest that while there may be one more rate cut this year, the overall outlook remains uncertain, impacting precious metal prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is significant, which could positively influence silver prices in the medium to long term [2] - Despite a weak job market, inflation has not shown significant rebound, allowing for continued policy easing, with President Trump advocating for further rate cuts [2] - The Fed's commitment to maintaining policy independence suggests a gradual approach to rate cuts, with expectations of 50 basis points total this year and potential further cuts in 2026 [2] Group 3 - There remains a strong demand for safe-haven assets and allocation needs, driven by ongoing global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Silver is increasingly viewed as a valuable asset for portfolio optimization and risk hedging, especially as gold prices rise [3] - The technical outlook for silver remains strong, with prices breaking above $40/oz, attracting trend-following investors [3] Group 4 - An analysis of the silver market indicates no mid-term bearish factors, suggesting a continued strong performance in the future [4] - The ongoing restructuring of global trade, monetary, and economic orders contributes to market uncertainty, maintaining a tight supply-demand relationship for precious metals [4] - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips rather than short selling [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a historic high of over $3,800, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 23, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, up $15.7 from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of $3,815.7 and an intraday high of $3,824.6 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks did not provide a clear path for interest rate cuts, but the market interpreted them as supportive of further easing, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Christopher Wood, global equity strategist at Jefferies, believes that despite strong gold performance year-to-date, there is still more upside potential in the coming months [2] - Independent analyst Ross Norman indicated that the dovish views of the new Federal Reserve governor, Milan, will likely intensify expectations for further rate cuts, which is a positive factor for gold prices [2] Group 3 - The strong rise in gold prices has also positively impacted the performance of other precious metals [3] - Although December silver futures closed slightly down by $0.05 at $44.265 per ounce, it reached a new high of $44.77, the highest since May 2011, during intraday trading [3] - Platinum and palladium prices in the London market also saw significant increases of over 4% on the same day [3]