【股市3600股上涨点燃商品多头情绪，新能源与贵金属成最大亮点】 12月17日，国内A股重回涨势，恒生指数涨0.92%，恒生科技指数涨超1%。港股科技ETF（159751）涨 1.08%，恒生港股通ETF（159318）涨0.96%，创业板指午后直线拉升涨3.39%，全市场超3600家个股上 涨，成交额放量至1.81万亿元，带动商品市场情绪回暖。板块方面，碳酸锂飙升7.61%、铂钯尾盘双双 涨停、多晶硅再创上市新高，沪银跟涨5.05%刷新纪录。当股市风险偏好回升遇上商品基本面支撑，一 场"情绪+资金+产业"共振的上涨行情正在上演。 一、碳酸锂：7.61%暴涨背后，矿端"情绪扰动"与供需"紧平衡"共振 核心数据：碳酸锂主力合约收涨7.61%，报108620元/吨，创近3个月新高。长江综合数据显示，电池级 碳酸锂99.5%报99900-103500元/吨，均价报 101700元/吨，单日大涨4,500 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂99.2%报 98600-100800元/吨，均价报99700元/吨，单日大涨4,500 元/吨； 上涨逻辑： 矿端"情绪炸弹"：宜春市拟注销27宗过期采矿许可证（多为非在产矿），虽对实际产能影 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, and soda ash - rebound; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 - oscillation [2] - **Finance**: CSI 300 - oscillation; CSI 500 - rebound; CSI 1000 - rebound; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds - oscillation; 10 - year treasury bond - consolidation [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold, silver - high - level oscillation; Log - bottom rebound [6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - oscillation; Offset paper - weak oscillation; Vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil) - rebound; Meal products (soybean meal, rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, soybean No.1 - oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - **Agriculture**: Live pigs - relatively strong [9] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - oscillation; PX, PTA, MEG - oscillation; PR - wait - and - see; PF - wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: In 2026, global iron ore supply will increase significantly while demand is weak, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative for raw materials. For coal coke, market sentiment has shifted from supply - side policy expectations to demand - side concerns. The steel market has rebounded due to policy support and short - term fundamental improvements, and glass has rebounded due to price drops and cold repairs [2] - **Finance**: The investment downward pressure has increased in 2025, and the government will take measures to expand effective investment. The stock index market shows different trends, and the bond market is relatively stable [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies affect its price. The short - term gold price is expected to maintain high - level oscillation, with long - term support [6] - **Light Industry**: The log market may bottom - rebound with weak drivers, the pulp market is in a supply - demand balance and will oscillate, and the vegetable oil market may rebound in the short - term, while the meal market is bearish [8] - **Agriculture**: The live pig market supply is stable, and with the increase in consumption and slaughter, the price is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9] - **Soft Commodities**: The natural rubber market is affected by weather and demand, and the price will oscillate. The polyester market products are mainly affected by oil prices and supply - demand, showing different trends [12] 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with supply growth far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a negative for raw materials. The short - term rebound due to restocking and macro - sentiment is an opportunity to short [2] - **Coal Coke**: Capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations to demand - side concerns. Macro policies have a short - term positive impact, and short - sellers should stop losses [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Policy support and short - term fundamental improvements have led to a rebound in the black sector. The steel export policy requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Price drops, cold repairs, and inventory reduction have led to a rebound, but real - estate demand is weak, and the price will bottom - oscillate [2] Finance - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock index futures showed different trends on the previous trading day. The government will take measures to expand investment, and the market will oscillate in the short - term and continue the upward trend in the medium - term [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the bond market is in a consolidation state with a slight rebound trend [4] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies affect its price. The short - term price will maintain high - level oscillation, with long - term support [6] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by interest rate policies and market sentiment, and will maintain high - level oscillation [6] - **Log**: Supply pressure may gradually weaken, demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price may bottom - rebound with weak drivers [6] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand is weak, and the market will oscillate [8] - **Offset Paper**: Supply pressure exists, demand from publication orders provides support, and the price will weakly oscillate [8] - **Vegetable Oils**: After a continuous decline, the market may rebound in the short - term due to rising crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [8] - **Meal Products and Soybeans**: The supply is abundant, demand is uncertain, and the market is bearish, with attention to weather and trade risks [8] Agriculture - **Live Pigs**: Supply is stable, consumption has increased, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Weather affects production, demand support is insufficient, and the price will oscillate [12] - **Polyester Products**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, different products show different trends, such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [12]

专题：第十二届全国售后服务大会暨标准宣贯活动 "第十二届全国售后服务大会"于2025年12月19日在北京举行。十一届全国政协经济委员会副主任、商务 部原副部长、中国商业联合会原会长张志刚出席并做主旨演讲。 张志刚回顾2025年时表示，我国在高质量发展上又取得了一些新成就，为扩大内需、提振消费奠定了坚 实的基础，也为现代服务业的发展营造了良好条件。农业丰收，为提振消费提供了基本保证。交通网是 商业网的支撑，又有新发展。数字经济等高科技建设迈出新步伐。能源革命取得新成就。海南自贸港封 关彰显高水平对外开放新气象。提振消费政策见成效，新消费方式不断涌现。 交通网是商业网的支撑，又有新发展。我国4.8万公里高铁网络占全球总里程的三分之二以上。最高时 速350公里正在向时速400公里冲击。目前样车已在作60万公里试运行，之后将正式投入使用。前不久落 成的"世界第一高桥"贵州花江峡谷大桥，创造了"横竖都是世界第一"的工程奇迹，625米的垂直高度刷 新桥梁建设史，以2分钟车程替代了2小时盘山路的时空压缩。"冰上丝绸之路"从宁波舟山港出发，经北 极到达英国费列克斯托港，仅用18天，比中欧班列约25天、苏伊士运河航线约40天、 ...

12月16日，广百股份收盘2连板涨停，沪深京交易所数据显示，截至当日收盘，广百股份报8.26元/股， 成交额6.71亿元，总市值57.89亿元，封板资金4379.2万元，2个交易日2次涨停。 异动原因 涨跌停原因： 1. 行业层面：中央经济工作会议将扩大内需列为明年重点任务之首，多部门推出具体政策举措，内需相 关行业获政策利好支撑。 2. 公司层面： - 作为广州销售规模最大的百货零售龙头，直接受益扩内需政策红利； - 推进数智化转型，首创"66电商节"实现线上线下联动，拓展免税店等新业态； - 广州市内首家免税店已在旗下广州友谊国金商店首层落地运营，助力活跃入境消费； - 最终控制人为广州市国资委，具备国企改革属性。 业绩方面，2025年1月-9月，广百股份实现营业收入27.87亿元，同比减少31.60%；归属净利润-3099.74 万元，同比减少159.01%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming economic strategy in China is on domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market as highlighted in the recent Central Economic Work Conference [1] - Experts indicate that the most pressing issue in China's economic operation is the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, suggesting that the evolution of supply-demand relationships will be a key observation point for economic development [1] - Zhang Bin from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences emphasizes the importance of breaking the negative transmission chain of demand insufficiency, advocating for policies that target "fast variables" like credit and investment to stimulate "slow variables" such as income and consumption [1] Group 2 - Huang Wentao, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, interprets the recent emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, indicating future policy directions [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent Central Economic Work Conference suggest a focus on integrating investments in both physical goods and human capital, with increased fiscal support expected in areas related to health, employment, and education [2] - Service consumption is identified as a crucial pillar for expanding domestic demand, with expectations that China's per capita GDP will reach $14,000 by the end of this year, paving the way for a shift from goods consumption to service consumption [2] Group 3 - The "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs for consumer goods, is recognized as a practical measure to boost consumption, with plans to optimize its implementation [2] - Suggestions for optimizing policy subsidies include focusing on service goods and infrastructure investments, such as building sports facilities and theaters, which can ultimately enhance consumer experiences [2] - The government has made positive strides in areas like childbirth and preschool education subsidies, indicating a promising start for future policies aimed at reducing living costs and promoting consumption growth [3]

人民日报海外版记者 李婕 新的一年，消费品以旧换新"国补"还会持续吗？ 近日召开的中央经济工作会议在明年经济工作重点任务中明确指出，优化"两新"政策实施。财政部 日前也在相关会议中提出，用好用足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建 设、"两新"工作。这也进一步明确，明年"国补"将继续实施。 稳增长惠民生 "两新"，是指大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，其中消费品以旧换新政策与普通消费者关系密 切。 根据国务院2024年印发的《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》，消费品以旧换新主 要涉及汽车、家电以及家装厨卫等消费品。当前，我国耐用消费品市场规模居全球首位，已进入存量优 化阶段。通过实施消费品以旧换新政策，有利于激发升级消费需求，释放消费潜力。 2025年，"两新"政策加力扩围实施，支持该项工作的超长期特别国债资金规模增加至5000亿元。其 中，3000亿元用于支持消费品以旧换新，比上年增加1500亿元；2000亿元用于支持设备更新，比上年增 加500亿元。 上述财政部会议明确，支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款"双贴 息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is experiencing significant activity, with multiple stocks showing substantial gains due to favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector has seen active performance, with stocks such as Central Plaza, Shanghai Jiubai, Dalian Friendship, and Dongbai Group hitting the daily limit up [1]. - Notable stock price increases include Central Plaza at 10.04%, Shanghai Jiubai at 10.02%, and Dalian Friendship at 10.01% [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent policies from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and financial regulators emphasize collaboration to enhance consumption, including the use of digital RMB smart contract red envelopes [3]. - The central government's focus on expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the coming year is expected to stimulate consumption from both supply and demand sides [3]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The retail sector is positioned to benefit directly from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, particularly for companies with strong offline channels and regional leadership [4]. - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see significant growth starting in 2026, with expectations of profit recovery and performance improvement for leading companies, especially those with brand strength and supply chain capabilities [4]. - The digital RMB initiative is expected to create business expansion opportunities for financial institutions and payment companies, driving demand for terminal upgrades and service needs [4]. - The liquor sector, while still in a bottoming phase, shows signs of stabilization in prices, with expectations for a recovery in performance as inventory levels decrease [4].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 近期矿价高位运行，市场多空因素相互交织， "扩大内需"对大宗商品市场情绪构成支撑，提振远期需 求信心，但基本面仍面临弱现实压力，供给端全球主流矿山发运持续恢复，叠加年末矿山冲量发运，累 库压力未减。需求端铁水产量持续回落，钢厂库存虽已在低位，但盈利压力抑制补库积极性，同时出口 政策收紧与宏观政策落地滞后，制约价格反弹空间。预计短期宏观扰动结束后，矿价或高位小幅回落。 铁矿：市场多空因素交织 矿价仍或有回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary strategy for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market and enhance the quality of goods and services supplied [1][2]. Group 1: Strengthening Domestic Demand - The conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, with a contribution rate of 71% from domestic demand to economic growth in the first three quarters of the year [2]. - Experts highlight that the strategic position of expanding domestic demand has been elevated, with a focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency [2][3]. - The emphasis on "maintaining strategic initiative and enhancing economic resilience" through a strong domestic market is noted as a key objective [2]. Group 2: Boosting Consumption - The focus on "expanding the supply of quality goods and services" aligns with the goal of leading new supply with new demand [4]. - There is a recognition of the mismatch between effective demand and supply, particularly in high-quality products and services, indicating a need for structural improvements [4][5]. - The conference outlines plans to adapt to changes in consumption structure and optimize the implementation of relevant policies to enhance service consumption [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Stabilization - The conference sets a goal to "promote investment stabilization," with plans to increase the scale of central budget investments and utilize new policy financial tools [7]. - It is acknowledged that fixed asset investment growth has been declining, necessitating a strategic response to enhance investment effectiveness [7][8]. - The emphasis on optimizing the management of local government special bonds aims to improve funding efficiency and support major project construction [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumption market has significant growth potential, with a shift towards service consumption expected as GDP per capita approaches $14,000, nearing the $15,000 threshold where service consumption typically accelerates [3][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - By the end of this year, China's GDP per capita is projected to be close to $14,000, indicating a transition towards rapid growth in service consumption [3][8]. - Currently, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure in China stands at 46.1%, which shows considerable room for improvement compared to developed countries [3][8]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - The entry of Generation Z into the workforce is driving new consumption trends, particularly in experiential consumption and local cultural elements [3][8]. - The aging population is contributing to the growth of the silver economy, with increasing demand in sectors such as elderly care, health, and smart home appliances [3][8]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize and expand consumption, it is recommended to maintain a long-term focus on expanding domestic demand, implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][9]. - Specific measures include enhancing income for urban and rural residents, improving employment stability through loan subsidies, and increasing the minimum purchase price for grain [4][9]. Group 4: Consumption Environment Optimization - Suggestions include increasing leisure time for residents by implementing school breaks and paid leave, as well as creating new public holidays to facilitate consumption [5][10]. - There is a call to remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector and to support emerging consumption areas such as e-commerce and low-altitude economy [5][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current challenges in the consumption market are seen as developmental issues, with expectations that as disposable income rises and policies take effect, the consumption market will gradually recover, contributing to stable economic growth [11].