Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by tangible market factors rather than speculation, making it a significant investment opportunity for those seeking long-term stability [1][5]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Geopolitical instability, particularly related to U.S. actions in Venezuela, has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, as individuals and businesses seek to protect their wealth during uncertain times [3]. - Ongoing issues with the U.S. government, including potential shutdowns and economic forecasts, have created a sense of urgency among investors to move their assets into gold, which is perceived as a more stable investment [3]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further drive gold prices up, as lower interest rates diminish the appeal of cash holdings, prompting a shift towards gold as a store of value [4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to approach gold investments with caution, particularly those looking for short-term gains, as gold prices can be volatile and chasing highs may lead to losses [4]. - For long-term investors, maintaining a position of 10% to 20% in gold as a hedge against market fluctuations is recommended, given the persistent factors supporting gold price increases [4]. - It is suggested that individuals avoid purchasing gold jewelry as an investment due to high markups and better alternatives like gold bars or ETFs, which offer a more straightforward investment without additional costs [4].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices surged after opening today, breaking through $3920 per ounce before experiencing a slight pullback [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been on the rise, primarily driven by geopolitical issues and the partial government shutdown in the United States [2]. - The current price of gold is reported at $3911.850, with a daily increase of $26.190, representing a 0.67% rise [2]. - The highest price reached today was $3920.770, while the lowest was $3883.248 [2]. Group 2: U.S. Political and Economic Context - President Trump announced military actions against drug trafficking near Venezuela, which may contribute to geopolitical tensions affecting gold prices [3]. - Over 300,000 Venezuelans in the U.S. face potential deportation due to a Supreme Court ruling favoring Trump's administration, which could impact immigration policies and economic conditions [4]. - The U.S. government shutdown is projected to result in a weekly GDP loss of $15 billion, influencing market sentiments and economic forecasts [5]. - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October is high, with a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, which may further affect gold prices [5].

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a short-term spike due to geopolitical tensions, particularly Trump's ultimatum to Hamas, raising concerns about Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions [3] - Despite the spike, oil prices actually fell by 7.4% over the week, as market participants remain cautious about OPEC+'s upcoming discussions on production levels and the impact of U.S. government activities on Iraqi oil exports [3] - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with short-term volatility driven by news but long-term trends dependent on OPEC+ decisions and supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices surged by 5.2% in a week, marking the largest weekly increase in a year, closing at $10,715 per ton, just under $400 from last year's historical high [4] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to supply chain issues and a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [4] - Other base metals also saw significant increases, with zinc rising by 5% and tin by 8.6%, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia [4] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks, currently standing above $3,885 per ounce, just $12 shy of the previous record high [5] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding U.S. government operations and delayed economic data, leading investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - There are indications of overbought conditions in the gold market, suggesting potential for a price correction despite the current upward trend [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on the underlying "mainline logic" of commodity markets rather than short-term fluctuations, with oil influenced by supply-demand and geopolitical balance, copper by industrial demand and supply gaps, and gold by Federal Reserve policies and global uncertainties [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the hypocrisy in international energy policies, particularly focusing on the U.S. stance of imposing sanctions on Russian energy while simultaneously importing Russian uranium, as illustrated by Putin's reference to an ancient Roman proverb [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Energy Policy - The U.S. energy policy is criticized for its double standards, where it attempts to block energy flows from Russia while benefiting from them through indirect means [3][5]. - The article points out that the U.S. government’s sanctions against Russia are undermined by American companies continuing to purchase Russian uranium through third parties, revealing a deeper hypocrisy [5][7]. Group 2: International Relations - Putin's use of the proverb serves as a cultural critique of Western policies, emphasizing that international relations are driven by interests rather than permanent enmities [3][9]. - The article notes that the perception of fairness in international order is challenged, particularly when developed countries consume significantly more energy than developing nations, highlighting structural injustices [7][9]. Group 3: Global Reactions - The international community's response to U.S. energy policies is mixed, with some countries publicly supporting the U.S. while privately negotiating with Russia for energy cooperation [5][7]. - The article suggests that the dynamics of energy markets are shifting, with emerging markets increasingly questioning U.S. policies and exploring alternative energy transaction methods, potentially undermining the dollar's dominance [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift from traditional economic models to a new paradigm where geopolitics increasingly influences economic decisions, termed "geoeconomics" [2][3][5]. Group 1: Geoeconomics and Market Dynamics - The concept of geoeconomics, introduced by Edward Luttwak, highlights the use of economic tools as weapons in geopolitical conflicts, affecting investment strategies and market pricing [2][3]. - Recent actions by the U.S. government, such as imposing tariffs and restricting foreign investments, illustrate how geopolitical tensions can directly impact asset pricing and market behavior [2][5]. - The financial system itself may be weaponized, with suggestions that countries using the U.S. dollar system could be required to pay "tolls," fundamentally altering the pricing logic of dollar-denominated assets [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Implications - Historical patterns show that economic paradigms shift over time, with periods of globalization followed by protectionism and nationalism, indicating that the current trend may persist for over a decade [6][7]. - The rise of strategic state capitalism suggests that industries such as rare earths, energy, and semiconductors are no longer solely driven by supply and demand but are now critical components of national security [7]. - Investors must adapt to a new reality where political variables are central to market dynamics, moving away from the assumption that free market principles are eternal [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations for Investors - Investors should recognize that market pricing logic has changed, with political factors becoming the main narrative rather than mere noise [7]. - The increasing uncertainty in predicting geopolitical actions necessitates a higher risk premium and volatility in asset pricing [7]. - The article emphasizes that understanding the interplay between finance and geopolitics is crucial for navigating the current investment landscape, likening it to historical diplomatic strategies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The potential resignation of Putin raises significant questions about the future security landscape in Europe, with various scenarios that could unfold depending on the new leadership in Russia [1][2]. Security Landscape: Three Possible Paths - **Hardline Succession**: If hardliners like Shoigu take power, Europe may face an escalation of conflict, with potential actions such as cutting off gas supplies and deploying tactical nuclear weapons [3]. - **Pragmatic Leadership**: A pragmatic government may lead to a temporary easing of tensions, but could exacerbate divisions within the EU and worsen defense challenges as the U.S. may withdraw troops [4]. - **Power Vacuum**: A power vacuum could lead to uncontrollable situations, with increased military actions from Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the inadequacy of the fragmented European military capabilities [5]. Energy Dynamics: Aftermath of Decoupling - **Short-term Risks**: Europe remains dependent on Russian fertilizers (34% share) and nuclear fuel, which could lead to agricultural shortages and nuclear power risks if supplies are cut [6][8]. - **Long-term Reconfiguration**: The shift towards China for Russian oil and gas exports could increase European reliance on the U.S., with American LNG imports to the EU surging to 54% [8][10]. Conclusion - The resignation of Putin may not resolve Europe's challenges but could accelerate trends such as NATO fragmentation, industrial hollowing out, and the illusion of security autonomy [10]. The critical question for Europe is whether to remain a "security appendage" of the U.S. or to forge its own path [10].

Core Insights - Poland's decision to halt the rail service at the Brest port has created significant disruptions in the logistics and trade routes between Europe and Asia, leading to a shift in trade dynamics [3][4][5] - The new trade corridor initiated by China through Kazakhstan and Turkey is gaining traction, with increased freight volumes and faster project execution compared to European counterparts [4][7][8] Trade Dynamics - The freight volume through Poland has decreased by 40% in 2025, while the new corridor through Central Asia and Turkey has seen a growth of over 60% [7] - European logistics managers express frustration over Poland's sudden policy changes, which have made them hesitant to rely on the region for trade [3][5] Geopolitical Implications - The situation reflects a broader geopolitical shift, with Central Asia emerging as a new hub for trade, while Poland's role as a logistics gateway is diminishing [5][8] - The European Union's bureaucratic processes are hindering timely project approvals, causing delays in the implementation of the "Global Gateway" initiative [3][4] Labor and Economic Impact - Chinese companies are rapidly signing new railway projects in Kazakhstan, with local workers experiencing a 20% wage increase, despite ongoing management challenges [5][6] - The contrast in operational efficiency between Chinese projects and European initiatives highlights a growing preference for the former among local stakeholders [4][5] Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding Poland's future as a trade hub raises questions about the long-term viability of European logistics strategies [10] - Stakeholders are left waiting for clarity on whether Poland will reopen its borders and if European funding will materialize for infrastructure projects [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and overseas economic data releases in early October will cause market fluctuations, so oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [1][2]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to decrease during the National Day holiday, and the demand is also weak, but the cost side provides some support, so the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the high-sulfur fuel oil price is under pressure. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is also increasing, and the demand has no specific driving force, so the low-sulfur fuel oil price is also weak [6][7][8]. - The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PX price is expected to decline. The supply of PTA is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also weak, so the PTA price is expected to decline [9][10][11]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the ethylene glycol price is expected to decline [12][13]. - The supply of short fiber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the short fiber price is expected to decline [14][15]. - The supply of bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the bottle chip price is expected to decline [16][17]. - The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pure benzene price is expected to decline. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the styrene price is expected to decline [17][18][19]. - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the propylene price is expected to decline [21]. - The supply of caustic soda is expected to increase, and the demand is weak in the short term but strong in the medium term, so the caustic soda price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [22][23]. - The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PVC price is expected to decline [24][25]. - The supply of LLDPE and PP is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the LLDPE and PP prices are expected to decline [26][28]. - The supply of glass is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the glass price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [28][30]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the soda ash price is expected to decline [31][32][33]. - The supply of methanol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the methanol price is expected to decline [35][36]. - The supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the urea price is expected to decline [38][40]. - The supply of pulp is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to decline [43][44]. - The supply of offset printing paper is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the offset printing paper price is expected to decline [46][47]. - The supply of logs is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the log price is expected to decline [49][50]. - The supply of natural rubber and 20 rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the natural rubber and 20 rubber prices are expected to decline [51][54]. - The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the butadiene rubber price is expected to decline [56][58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $63.18, down $2.01 or 3.08% from the previous day; Brent2511 contract settled at $67.65, down $2.1 or 3.01% from the previous day; SC2511 contract rose 3.5 to 492.6 yuan/barrel, and fell 14.2 to 480.3 yuan/barrel in the night session [1]. - **Related News**: Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine on Sunday, causing at least four deaths and dozens of injuries. As of the week ending September 21, diesel and diesel oil exports increased by 85% from the previous week to more than 1.2 million barrels per day, mainly from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The facilities near the port were attacked by drones this week, temporarily affecting exports [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices. As the National Day holiday in China approaches, there are many uncertainties in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices have an upward driving force. On the other hand, OPEC+ will announce its production increase plan for November on October 5, and the supply side will remain under high pressure. Overseas economic data will be released in early October, causing market fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and investors need to pay attention to the risk of holding positions. In the short term, the intraday trading range of the Brent main contract is expected to be between $67.8 and $70 [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking is weak, and diesel cracking is weak; Options: Wait and see [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3439 points (-0.43%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3393 points (-0.53%) in the night session. On September 29, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was stable at 3500 yuan/ton, the spot price in East China was stable at 3560 yuan/ton, and the spot price in South China was stable at 3510 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, there was a small amount of rush - work demand before the holiday, which was beneficial to the sales of refineries and traders. In addition, some refineries stopped producing asphalt and consumed inventory, driving the total inventory level of refineries to decline slightly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the market trading was relatively dull as the National Day holiday approached, and downstream users purchased on demand. In the South China market, the reduction of rainfall in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions drove the sales of refineries and social inventories, and the sales volume of Foshan warehouse increased compared with the previous period, which was beneficial to the increase of asphalt prices [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants on Monday this week was 40.35%, down 9.53% from last Thursday. The total inventory level of refineries was 25.89%, down 1.22% from last Thursday, and the social inventory rate was 34.07%, down 1.24% from last Thursday. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and it is expected that there is limited upward space before the holiday, and the cost side provides limited support. The supply and demand of asphalt decreased compared with the previous period before the holiday, and the industry chain can still maintain de - stocking, and the spot price has certain support. There are many uncertainties overseas during the National Day holiday in China, and the situation between the United States and Venezuela will continue to disrupt the supply expectation of asphalt raw materials. In the short term, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Range oscillation; Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil oscillates weakly; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [6]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The FU01 contract closed at 2870 (-2.28%) in the night session, and the LU11 contract closed at 3399 (-2.38%) in the night session. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Oct/Nov spread was 4.8 to 2.8 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Oct/Nov spread remained at - 0.5 US dollars/ton [6]. - **Related News**: A major oil port operator in Shandong, China, will take measures to ban shadow fleet vessels and restrict the access of other old oil tankers from November 1. On September 30, there were no transactions in the high - sulfur fuel oil 380, high - sulfur fuel oil 180, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore spot window [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities have been attacked continuously, but the refineries and various transportation facilities have also returned from maintenance in a timely manner. The Primorsk port has resumed oil loading after being attacked last Friday, and large refineries such as Ryazan and Volgograd are also in the process of returning to normal. The high - sulfur exports in the Middle East have increased as the power generation demand has subsided, but Iran's exports are still restricted. Mexico's high - sulfur exports have continued to decline due to the commissioning of secondary devices in Olmeca and Tula. The summer power generation demand has completely subsided. Under the background of the decline of high - sulfur cracking and the low cost of tax reform, the feed demand support is still not obvious. The high - sulfur near - end inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price. The low - sulfur fuel oil spot window transaction price is at a low level, and the premium continues to decline. The low - sulfur supply continues to increase, and there is no specific driving force for downstream demand [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation; Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity to widen the LU01 - FU01 spread; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [9]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session; the TA601 main contract closed at 4662 (+6/+0.13%) in the day session and 4580 (-72/-1.55%) in the night session. The PX price rebounded slightly yesterday, and the PX valuation was 817 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars from last Friday. One November Asian spot was traded at 816, and two December Asian spots were both traded at 816. In the PTA spot market, the negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little [9][10]. - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC+ plans to increase oil production again in November, and the Kurdistan region of Iraq has resumed oil exports through Turkey, causing international oil prices to decline. In terms of PX supply, the 390,000 - ton PX plant of Tianjin Petrochemical is planned to restart recently. The maintenance of two 700,000 - ton PX plants of Shanghai Petrochemical and Jinling Petrochemical in the fourth quarter has been postponed to 2026. The short - process plants at home and abroad have increased their loads, and the PX operating rate remains at a high level. In the downstream PTA, the 4.5 - million - ton Fuhai Chuang plant restarted last weekend with a load of 50%. This week, the 1.25 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 1.2 - million - ton Zhongtai plant stopped production, and the 1.1 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 5 - million - ton Hengli Huizhou plant reduced their loads. Currently, the load of Hengli Huizhou has recovered. In October, the 1.1 - million - ton Sichuan Energy Investment and the PTA plant of Hengli Petrochemical Dalian are expected to be overhauled. In November, the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Dushan Energy Phase I and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Honggang have overhaul plans, and the commissioning of the 3 - million - ton new plant of Dushan Energy has been postponed. The PTA operating rate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in October. Recently, polyester filaments have carried out price promotions, the terminal operating rate has increased, and polyester sales have continued to be boosted. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of some domestic PX plants has been postponed, and the operating rate is running at a relatively high level. PX is still in a tight balance, and the de - stocking amplitude is smaller than expected; the PTA processing fee valuation is low, the commissioning of new plants is delayed, the planned maintenance volume in October remains relatively high, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The overall profit of the terminal is still poor. The supply - demand side provides limited driving force, and the price is greatly affected by the macro - level and the cost side [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the fourth quarter, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, and the de - stocking amplitude is shrinking; the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large; the terminal operating rate has increased, but the profit is poor. There is still inventory accumulation pressure on crude oil and PTA. It is recommended to short on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [11][12]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4224 (+11/+0.26%) yesterday and 4185 (-39/-0.92%) in the night session. Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 64 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is 4289 - 4293 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, several next - week spot transactions were at a premium of 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The basis of the October futures is at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is around 4293 - 4295 yuan/ton [12]. - **Related News**: According to CCF, the inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of East China was about 409,000 tons yesterday, down 58,000 tons from the previous period. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant of Fuzhou Refining is planned to stop for maintenance for about two weeks in October. The 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant of Shanxi Meijin is planned to stop for maintenance from September 25, and it is expected to restart in mid - October. From the end of September to early October, the 900,000 - ton satellite petrochemical and the 260,000 - ton Jianyuan ethylene glycol maintenance plants are expected to restart, and the 400,000 - ton MEG of Shenhua Yulin is expected to increase its load. The Tongliao Jinmei and Henan Yongcheng plants have maintenance plans. The 900,000 - ton/year new ethylene glycol plant of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is planned to start trial production around the end of this month, and the ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase. Overseas, a 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia stopped production due to technical reasons this week, and the restart time is undetermined. During the National Day holiday, the arrival of overseas ships is relatively concentrated, and the market's willingness to sell has increased. Downstream orders are less than the same period last year, the ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to become looser, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell call options [14]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session. The prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable, and the mainstream negotiation price of semi - bright 1.4D was 6350 - 6

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's recent comments suggest a potential shift in U.S. policy regarding tariffs on Russian oil imports from China, contingent on European actions, indicating a complex geopolitical strategy at play [2][4][9]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Conditions - The U.S. is considering not imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports of Russian oil, but only if European countries take action first, which places pressure on Europe [2][4]. - The U.S. has already imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods and is seeking to coordinate with Europe on tariffs against China, reflecting a continuation of the "America First" policy [4][5]. - The U.S. strategy appears to be one of leveraging European allies to share the burden of economic sanctions against Russia while avoiding direct repercussions on the U.S. economy [5][9]. Group 2: European Dilemma - Europe faces a challenging situation where imposing tariffs on China could harm its own economy due to high trade dependency, yet failing to comply with U.S. demands risks exclusion from the Western alliance [5][15]. - Key European leaders express concerns that tariffs could severely impact their industries, particularly the automotive sector, highlighting the internal divisions within the EU regarding U.S. directives [15][16]. - The EU's decision-making process is complicated by the need for unanimous agreement among member states, which is difficult given differing national interests [16]. Group 3: China's Response - China has responded to U.S. tariffs by emphasizing principles of mutual benefit and opposing the politicization of trade issues, showcasing a mature diplomatic stance [11][12]. - The Chinese government has indicated that its imports of Russian oil are based on market demand and are a matter of national sovereignty, rejecting U.S. pressure as overreach [11][12]. - China's diplomatic strategy aims to maintain open channels for cooperation while firmly standing by its principles, indicating a long-term view in negotiations [13][18]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The ongoing situation reveals significant fractures within the Western alliance, as countries like India and China resist being drawn into U.S.-led sanctions against Russia [16][18]. - The potential for a tariff standoff could lead to increased volatility in global energy markets, as evidenced by recent fluctuations in Russian oil prices [15][16]. - The upcoming tariff negotiations in November are seen as a critical juncture that could either ease tensions or exacerbate trade conflicts, with the U.S. strategy facing challenges from domestic economic pressures [16][18].

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 降息开启，地缘政治加剧，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：节前黄金白银加速上 ...