投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-30 去美元化交易加速，⾦银同步刷新历史 ⾼位 贵⾦属延续极端强势。美元⾛弱、主权债与法币信任受损、地缘与政策不 确定性叠加，去美元化交易进⼊加速阶段。⻩⾦突破5500美元关⼝，⽩银 同步创历史新⾼，⾦强银更强的结构维持，但⾼位波动与流动性约束开始 显性化。（以上新闻和数据均来⾃彭博终端） 黄金观点：去美元化交易主导，黄金进入加速再定价阶段。 逻辑：美元指数持续回落、日债与欧美主权债波动放大，推动资金从 债券与法币体系向黄金迁移。市场对美联储独立性、财政扩张与政策 工具有效性的担忧强化，黄金作为"最终结算资产"的配置需求快速 放大。短期内，趋势资金与被动配置共振，推动价格连续突破关键整 数位，但银行资产负债表约束抬升波动率。（以上新闻和数据均来自 彭博终端） 展望：中期上行逻辑未改，但短期超买信号显著，需关注高位震荡与 阶段性回撤风险。若美元弱势延续，黄金仍具顺趋势配置价值。 白银观点：白银弹性释放加速。 逻辑： 在黄金强势定价框架下，白银补涨属性与流动性驱动凸显。 工业与金融双重属性叠加，资金在金价持续创新高背景下向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of gold prices, emphasizing the interplay between monetary policy, central bank gold purchases, and market sentiment, while highlighting the uncertainty in predictions made by industry experts [5][9][10]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the convergence of the gold cycle, interest rate cuts, and central bank gold accumulation [7]. - Central banks, including China, are increasing their gold reserves, which creates a feedback loop that drives gold prices higher as countries perceive their dollar reserves as depreciating [8]. - Predictions from institutions like Goldman Sachs suggest that gold prices could exceed $5,400 per ounce, reflecting a significant upward adjustment from previous forecasts [10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Debt Management - The increase in money supply is not merely due to central banks printing money; rather, it involves complex debt management strategies, often referred to as "debt replacement" [12][13]. - Countries, including the U.S., are not genuinely repaying debts but managing interest payments, leading to a continuous increase in money supply [14][15]. - This ongoing monetary expansion is expected to eventually drive gold prices up, as gold is viewed as a true form of currency compared to fiat money [16]. Group 3: Investment Perspectives - The article suggests that wealthy individuals who invest in gold for long-term holding can benefit from price increases, while typical investors may struggle to profit from short-term trading [22]. - The supply dynamics of gold are characterized by limited production and long-term holding by central banks and trusts, contrasting sharply with silver, which has a more elastic supply due to industrial demand [23]. - The author advises cautious participation in gold investment, emphasizing the importance of learning through experience rather than speculative trading [24][25].

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged, breaking the historic threshold of $5,500 per ounce, with silver following suit [1] - The market is buzzing with discussions about "safe-haven," "monetary attributes," and "historical highs" [2] - The situation is different from the typical "sector rotation" or "catch-up" narrative [3] Group 2 - Copper's value has changed, becoming a strategic asset rather than just a cyclical commodity [6][4] - The driving forces behind copper's price changes overlap with those of gold and silver but are more complex [5] - The current market is experiencing a significant shift in perception regarding copper, moving from a "trading commodity" to a "portfolio asset" [17] Group 3 - The macroeconomic backdrop has dramatically changed, leading to a questioning of the dollar's credibility, with the dollar index hitting a four-year low [9] - As trust in the dollar system wavers, investors are seeking alternatives, with gold being the primary beneficiary of this sentiment [10][11] - Copper, priced in dollars, also benefits from the dollar's depreciation, as it becomes more expensive in dollar terms [14][15] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks are rising, impacting both gold and copper, with increased demand for gold as a safe haven during turbulent times [18][20] - The supply of copper is threatened by political and community uncertainties in major copper-producing regions [21][22] - The geopolitical risk premium is being factored into copper prices, adding an "insurance cost" to its valuation [23] Group 5 - The current spot market for copper is weak, with increasing global inventories and a lack of demand from China [28][29] - The significant price difference between spot and futures copper indicates an oversupply in the market [32] - The weak demand reflects a broader issue where the global economy cannot support the current high copper prices [36] Group 6 - The long-term outlook for copper is driven by structural supply issues and a robust demand forecast due to global energy transitions [39][46] - The anticipated demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy projects is expected to significantly increase copper consumption [47][48] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between weak short-term realities and strong long-term expectations for copper [49] Group 7 - The pricing logic for copper is evolving, moving away from traditional supply-demand dynamics to include strategic resource premiums and inflation hedges [54][55] - Short-term volatility is expected as the market adjusts to current conditions, with potential for significant price fluctuations [56][60] - In the medium to long term, copper is likely to establish its own upward trend, driven by persistent supply challenges and increasing demand [60][62]

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index has raised concerns about "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risks, prompting market attention [1][15] - Bloomberg Industry Research predicts that the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit could generate excess returns for Asian currency portfolios due to structural advantages and reduced correlation with the dollar [1][15] - The relative performance of low-interest and high-interest Asian currencies will depend on the timing of the "de-dollarization" trend [1][15] Group 2 - Zhao Zhixuan, Bloomberg's Chief Forex and Rates Strategist for Asia, suggests that the dollar index may need to fall below 90 to trigger policy intervention, indicating further downside potential from current levels [1][15] - The yuan is expected to be the most favored currency this year, with the USD/CNY exchange rate potentially challenging the 6.7 to 6.8 level [1][11] - The dollar faces multiple structural challenges, including portfolio rotation away from US assets, ongoing arbitrage trading, and expectations of a weak dollar policy [1][15] Group 3 - European institutions, including Danish pension funds, have begun to exit the US Treasury market, with China's holdings of US debt at their lowest level since 2008 [2][16] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings is likely to continue, but a complete sell-off is unrealistic due to the lack of alternative markets with similar depth and liquidity [2][16] - The future may see a coexistence of multiple reserve currencies and regionalization of currency use, although the dollar's leading position is unlikely to be replaced in the short term [2][16] Group 4 - Concerns over Japan's "monetary fiscalization" have led to selling pressure on its long-term bonds, which may transmit pressure to global bond markets [2][24] - The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen against the dollar this year, with a reasonable equilibrium exchange rate around 129 [2][24][25] - Other Asian currencies are expected to show divergence, with low-interest currencies like the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar benefiting from a declining dollar cycle [2][12] Group 5 - The yuan is viewed as the most promising currency this year, with expectations of steady appreciation against both the dollar and a basket of currencies [2][11][26] - Factors supporting the yuan's appreciation include favorable policies, interest rate differentials, and capital inflows from the stock market [2][11][26] - The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar are also expected to strengthen, while high-interest currencies like the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Indian rupee may weaken due to fiscal stability concerns [2][12][29]

国际局势不稳，黄金大涨尚且可以理解。不承担货币责任，扛不起通胀属性的白银也一飞冲天。1月29 日，现货白银日内涨约2.85%，站上纪录新高120美元/盎司，更有人看涨到160美元/盎司。 还有铜，进入2026年，上海期货交易所的铜期货价格一度突破每吨10万元大关。 万万没想到，商业航天之后，黄金、白银等有色又硬气起来了，力压AI应用等，成了新一轮的主线。 2025以来，银行、算力、光模块、芯片......主线换了一批又一批人。你永远猜不到，下一个主线是什 么？ 黄金、白银带头 太猛了！黄金现货从5200美元/盎司一度飙升至5600美元/盎司，多次创纪录，两日涨幅达400美元。 在黄金这条链条上，从期货到现货，再传导到国内市场，金饰品牌纷纷涨价，相关公司股价也大涨特 涨。 这三个算涨得最猛的可谓交替上涨。三者有什么共同性？ 在元素周期表中，它们都属于IB族金属（铜副族），都具有良好的延展性，可以改造成你想要的任何形 象，尤其是黄金。马斯克说过：金银天然是货币。历史上，金银确实都充当过货币的用途，直到今天， 黄金与货币也很难完全割裂。 这背后是宏观环境、供需格局与资金情绪的多重力量共振。 第一，是美元信用弱化与美 ...

有观点指出当前华尔街正大力推高黄金价格，其背后藏着美高层的深层考量。美高层计划降息，以刺激本土经 济，解决就业遇冷、企业动力不足的问题，但降息会削弱美元吸引力，热钱可能流出美元体系，一旦未来美经济 衰退，美元潮汐的收割玩法恐将失效，这会让美国陷入危机。为避免热钱流出美元体系，美高层希望引导资金进 入由美元主导的黄金市场，将黄金价格炒高后，黄金储备较少的国家财富会相对贬值。 如今这套玩法渐显乏力，不少国家悄悄推进去美元化，减持美债、增持黄金，盟友也在降低对美元的依赖，若降 息后热钱转而兑换其他货币，美国将面临巨大麻烦。 看透了本质，还有观点补充道，石油也是美国收割的一种方式，当下美国扬言对伊朗动手，但大概率打不起来， 无非是制造矛盾，以此推高金价和石油价格。 过去多年，美高层靠着美元潮汐收割全球，降息时向外输出美元推高资产价格，加息时抽回美元刺破别国资产泡 沫，多次引发地区经济危机。 ...

当地时间1月28日，美联储在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%至3.75%不变。这一决定符合市场预期，也是自2025年9月以来，连续3次降息后首次按下暂停键。 在全球经济复苏缓慢、通胀压力挥之不去的背景下，此次暂停既是对前期宽松政策效果的战略观望，也 是面对复杂经济形势的审慎选择。 历史反复证明，一旦决策为选情所左右，往往容易催生政策短视，为长期经济失衡埋下伏笔。美国总统 特朗普已高调预告，将尽快宣布下一任美联储主席人选，美联储理事沃勒因在近几次会议上支持降息而 获提名，这被市场解读为未来政策可能更贴近白宫诉求的信号。若独立性受损，美联储或被迫在通胀未 受控的前提下过早宽松，重蹈20世纪70年代滞涨覆辙。 美联储之所以选择"按兵不动"，最直接的原因是经济数据没有给出足够的行动理由。一方面，美国经济 近期呈现出较强韧性。美国经济分析局（BEA）近日发布更新估算数据显示，2025年三季度，美国实际 国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长4.4%，较初值上修0.1个百分点，创下2021年以来最快增速。消 费者支出作为经济增长支柱表现稳健，失业率微降至4.4%，显现企稳迹象。另一方 ...

国际现货金价围绕5065美元/盎司震荡，较前期高点回落约1.29%，人民币计价维持在1137-1145元/克区间，上海黄金交易所Au99.99收于1137.3元/克，日内最 高触及1150元/克，下方支撑位于1126-1128元/克，盘面呈现高位整固特征，成交量维持39万手以上，资金参与度仍处高位。 国内市场价格体系呈现显著分化，银行投资金条贴近原料价格：工商银行如意金条约1152元/克，建设银行龙鼎金条约1144.80元/克，中国银行投资金条约 1143.63元/克，农业银行传世之宝1167元/克。 品牌金饰则包含高昂工费与溢价：周大福、周大生、六福珠宝报1578元/克，老凤祥1576元/克，周生生1574元/克，菜百首饰与中国黄金约1512元/克，水贝 黄金仅1296元/克，品牌金饰与原料价差达400-450元/克，投资属性被严重削弱。 2026年1月29日，国际黄金价格降至5232.5美元/盎司，国内黄金价格也降至1175.5元/克，黄金回收价格跌至1155元/克，反映出市场对黄金的需求减弱。各大 品牌如周大福、六福、周生生、老凤祥和老庙的黄金价格也纷纷下调，分别为1618元/克、1618元/克、161 ...

2026年1月底，全球金融市场经历了一场地震。 美元指数暴跌，一度触及96附近，创下多年新低 。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，黄金价格如同坐上了火箭，在1 月29日首次突破每盎司5400美元大关，单日涨幅超过6% 。 白银也不甘示弱，价格冲上116美元以上 。 这场动荡的直接导火索，出现在1月下旬的一次采访 中。 当前总统唐纳德·特朗普被问及是否担心美元贬值时，他轻松地表示"不，我觉得很好"，并补充说可以让美元"像悠悠球一样上上下下" 。 这番"悠悠球 论"瞬间点燃了市场恐慌情绪，美元遭到猛烈抛售 。 然而，特朗普的言论只是一根火柴，真正的燃料早已备好。 就在他讲话的前一天，1月27日，印度总理莫迪和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩共同宣布，双方达成 了备受期待的自由贸易协定 。 这项被称为"所有协议之母"的协定，谈判历时近20年，将创建一个覆盖20亿人口、占全球GDP四分之一的巨大市场 。 欧盟将 分阶段取消对90%的印度商品关税，印度则向欧盟汽车、葡萄酒等产品大幅降低市场准入壁垒 。 地缘政治风险进一步放大了市场的避险需求。 2025年，美国发起大规模关税战，加剧了全球贸易紧张局势 。 中东局势持续紧张，大国博弈频繁 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts, the impact on the dollar-centric system, and uncertainties from the Trump 2.0 policies, has made gold the dominant asset in financial markets, with prices reaching unprecedented levels [1][25]. Market Dynamics - On January 29, international gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2.23%, marking a year-to-date increase of over 27% [2][1]. - Consumers are flocking to gold stores, with wait times for gold buyback reaching two hours, and many banks reporting shortages of physical gold [11][10]. Consumer Behavior - The traditional investment philosophy of "buying high" has attracted many investors, leading to increased foot traffic in gold stores, particularly in Beijing and Shenzhen [3][5]. - In Beijing's flagship gold store, the price of investment gold reached 1,240.90 yuan per gram, while gold jewelry prices surged to 1,622 yuan per gram [3][5]. Supply Chain Impact - The gold price increase has created a disparity in the gold supply chain, benefiting upstream miners while negatively impacting midstream and downstream businesses [14][15]. - Upstream mining companies like Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold are reporting significant profit increases due to higher gold prices, with net profit forecasts showing growth of 59%-62% [14]. Investment Trends - The gold investment sector is experiencing a boom, with many gold stocks hitting consecutive daily limits, and gold-themed ETFs seeing substantial inflows [18][19]. - As of January 29, several gold ETFs reported transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting heightened investor interest [18]. Risk and Strategy - Experts advise against blindly chasing high gold prices, suggesting that investors should consider risk management and asset allocation strategies [27][28]. - The current market environment indicates that while gold serves as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, its price volatility necessitates a cautious approach to investment [24][28].