专题：第十二届富国论坛：AI驱动下的中国资产价值跃迁 5月24日深耕消费领域14年的富国基金经理周文波，在第十二届富国论坛以《A股港股"大消费"大反 击？》为题，剖析消费板块的低估值机遇与新兴赛道高成长潜力。 他指出，经历多年调整的消费板块正显现出结构性投资机会，当前消费板块PE分位数处于近十年低 位，机构持仓触底，悲观预期已充分定价。而居民储蓄率见顶、收入预期改善与财富效应再现，有望成 为消费板块反转的催化剂。 A股、港股消费结构性投资机会如何把握？ 周文波指出，需要关注两类机会：一是布局估值处于历史底部、分红稳定的传统消费龙头，如白酒、家 电等，其高ROE特性有望提供安全边际；二是顺应消费趋势变革的"新消费"领域，关注国货品牌崛起、 文/新浪财经上海站 陈秀颖 情绪消费、性价比消费及服务消费升级等新兴消费赛道的高成长机遇。 展望后市，周文波表示，需关注居民收入预期改善和财富效应再现两大催化剂，投资者可以在消费板块 布局中平衡"估值安全边际"与"成长确定性"。当前消费政策加码，叠加盈利基数效应，2025年下半年消 费板块或迎来修复窗口。 本届富国论坛主动权益投资分论坛，不仅为投资者厘清了"新模式"下的市场主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "new consumption" in China, highlighting a shift from functional needs to emotional value among consumers, leading to the emergence of various new consumption sectors such as the pet economy and traditional crafts [1][4]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption encompasses service consumption, spiritual consumption, and technology-related consumption, with a particular focus on spiritual consumption in the current context of material abundance [1][2]. - Companies like Pop Mart have successfully capitalized on the new consumption trend, achieving explosive growth despite a generally sluggish overall consumption environment [2][3]. Group 2: Brand Influence and Consumer Behavior - The willingness of consumers to pay a premium for products is driven by brand recognition rather than significant changes in distribution or supply chains, as seen with brands like Mixue Ice City [2][3]. - The emotional connection established through branding, such as the viral marketing of Mixue's IP "Snow King," differentiates it from competitors and enhances brand recognition [3]. Group 3: Pet Economy Insights - The pet economy is projected to reach a market size of 592.8 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations to exceed 1.15 trillion yuan by 2028, indicating strong growth potential [3][4]. - The pet economy is characterized by high consumer stickiness and emotional attachment, particularly among younger demographics, with 41.2% of pet owners being born in the 1990s [4][5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Valuation - Despite the promising outlook for the pet economy, the average price-to-earnings ratio for pet stocks exceeds 50, significantly higher than traditional consumer goods, which typically range from 10 to 25 [5]. - The concentration of leading companies in the pet market is expected to increase, driven by product innovation and brand development, although there are concerns about potential valuation corrections if market consolidation does not meet expectations [5][6]. Group 5: Long-term Sustainability - The pursuit of new consumption reflects a search for certainty in an uncertain society, but the sustainability of this trend will ultimately depend on returning to fundamental business values [6].

Core Viewpoint - AI is recognized as a revolutionary technology that is significantly transforming consumer behavior, particularly in the entertainment industry [1][2] Group 1: Changes in the Consumer Industry - The consumer industry is evolving from traditional retail to an experience economy, emphasizing user co-creation and emotional value [7] - All consumer industries are becoming service industries, media industries, and entertainment industries [7] Group 2: Consumer Industry as a Service Industry - The service industry is becoming a core competitive advantage, as exemplified by Haidilao, which focuses on service rather than just food quality [8] - Companies like Luckin Coffee and Starbucks are innovating service delivery to enhance consumer experience and emotional value [9] Group 3: Consumer Industry as a Media Industry - Products are becoming content carriers, with brands like Pop Mart leveraging social media for user engagement and expression [10] - The transformation into a media industry allows products to have inherent viral potential, as seen with brands like Yuanqi Forest [10] Group 4: Consumer Industry as an Entertainment Industry - Starbucks and Pinduoduo are integrating entertainment elements into their offerings, turning transactions into engaging experiences [11] - The entertainment aspect of consumption fosters community and shared experiences among consumers [11] Group 5: Implications for the Consumer Industry - The consumer industry should learn from the entertainment industry to better understand human emotions and relationships [12] - The integration of entertainment into consumption creates a more engaging and meaningful experience for consumers [13] Group 6: Causes of New Consumer Changes - Technological factors, particularly AI, are reshaping consumer behavior and content creation [14] - Economic factors, such as GDP growth, are leading to a cultural consumption boom, enhancing consumer expectations [15] - Social factors, including a philosophical awakening, are influencing how consumers perceive reality and engage with products [16][17]

Group 1 - The global economic and technological landscape is undergoing unprecedented changes by 2025, influenced by the US's tariff policies, leading to significant shifts in global capital markets [1][2] - There are three major investment opportunities identified: gold, military industry, and digital assets; opportunities related to technological innovation; and Chinese assets [3][4] - The revaluation of Chinese assets is just beginning, and the core logic of asset valuation in China remains unchanged despite tariff impacts [1][3] Group 2 - The current era is characterized by uncertainty, with the greatest certainty being the prevalence of uncertainty in the coming years [2][3] - The Chinese capital market is expected to thrive in the long term, with a stable A-share index and structural bull market anticipated [4][5] - China's economy is seen as a stabilizing anchor in the global economy amidst international turmoil, benefiting from a positive feedback loop between the stock market and economic expectations [4][5] Group 3 - Technological breakthroughs in China are boosting national confidence and enhancing global investor sentiment towards Chinese assets [5] - The service consumption sector in China has significant potential, with new consumption trends emerging that focus on emotional resonance and identity recognition [5] - The Hong Kong market is poised for a long-term bull run, driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and a changing market ecology [6][7] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on strategically increasing exposure to Chinese assets while maintaining a balanced approach to market fluctuations [6][7] - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience a two-phase recovery, with initial volatility followed by improvements in fundamentals and risk appetite [6][7]

Group 1 - The core theme of the event is "Unlocking the B-side of West Lake" through a multi-faceted cultural and tourism experience, showcasing the innovative vitality and cultural charm of the West Lake District [1] - The event features the release of new tourism routes targeting families, youth, and pet owners, emphasizing seasonal experiences and diverse activities such as art therapy and outdoor sports [1] - The "5·19惠民政策" includes various supportive measures for cultural tourism enterprises and ticket discounts for visitors, reflecting the district's commitment to enhancing the cultural tourism industry [1] Group 2 - The "College Cultural Tourism Star Promoter" program was launched to engage university students in promoting West Lake's cultural tourism through new media and event planning [2] - During the "May Day" holiday, West Lake District recorded 3.36 million tourists, with hotel occupancy rates increasing by 11.45% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in tourism [2] - The district is innovatively creating new consumption scenarios in cultural tourism, integrating local culture with digital technology and creative industries to enhance visitor experiences [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that new consumption, particularly in the second-hand market, is becoming a significant trend in 2025, driven by policy support, changing consumer behavior, and the growth of second-hand e-commerce platforms like Wanwu Xingsheng (Ai Huishou) [1][3][16]. Group 1: Market Trends - The new consumption wave is characterized by the rise of "self-indulgent consumption" and circular economy practices among Generation Z [1][4]. - Wanwu Xingsheng reported a total revenue of 4.65 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, surpassing revenue guidance [1][3]. - The overall retail sales in China grew by 4.6% year-on-year, while Wanwu Xingsheng outperformed this with a consistent growth rate of over 20% for eleven consecutive quarters [3][5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly embracing second-hand products, reflecting a shift towards a "refined self-indulgence" consumption logic [4][5]. - The demand for high-quality living at affordable prices is driving consumers to engage in second-hand transactions, balancing quality and economic pressures [5][15]. - The second-hand market is expected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting that the domestic idle trading market will exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2025 [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Infrastructure - The second-hand e-commerce sector is evolving into a key infrastructure for new consumption, with platforms like Wanwu Xingsheng expanding their service offerings and enhancing consumer trust through offline stores [7][13]. - Wanwu Xingsheng's offline store count reached 1,886 by the end of Q1, covering 283 cities, indicating a robust expansion of its delivery capabilities [13][15]. - The integration of online and offline services is enhancing consumer experience and trust in second-hand products, leading to increased sales and profitability [15][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The circular economy is positioned as a new growth engine, with government policies increasingly supporting recycling and second-hand markets [16][18]. - The collaboration between circular economy enterprises and traditional retail is expected to drive further innovation and consumer engagement [16][19]. - The article predicts that the circular economy will continue to grow, driven by changing consumer preferences and the need for sustainable practices [19][21].

Group 1: Fund News - Jiahua Fund announced the appointment of Liu Wei as the new Chief Information Officer, following Yang Jingshuang's resignation for personal reasons [1] - Several fund companies have recently opened conversion services for different share classes of the same fund, with over ten companies including Dachen, Fuguo, and Penghua making announcements this year [1] - The number of low-fee products has expanded to over 1,000, with major fund companies like Yifangda and Huaxia reducing their fund fees, including both large funds and long-established products [1][3] Group 2: Notable Fund Manager Insights - Gao Daliang from CICC Fund highlighted the emergence of new consumption sectors, indicating a shift in investment logic from traditional "blue-chip supremacy" to "new consumption breakthroughs," emphasizing the importance of emotional value and channel efficiency [2] Group 3: ETF Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.96%, with total trading volume at 1.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 708 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] - The S&P 500 ETF led the gains with an increase of 4.51%, while several bank ETFs also showed positive performance [3][4] Group 4: ETF Thematic Opportunities - Tencent's Hunyuan-Game platform was launched, focusing on industrial-grade game content generation, which is expected to enhance efficiency in content production, presenting potential opportunities for game ETFs [6] Group 5: Upcoming Fund Focus - The West China Gain Zhongzheng A500 Index Enhanced Fund is set to launch, managed by Sheng Fengyan, with a performance benchmark based on the Zhongzheng A500 Index [7]

Group 1 - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that in April, new consumption momentum is growing, indicating a clear trend of economic improvement [1] - Despite a slowdown in industrial and consumption growth rates due to the tariff war, the overall economy shows strong resilience, supported by effective macroeconomic policies [4] - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value increased by 9.8% year-on-year in April, contributing nearly 56% to the growth of industrial added value [4] Group 2 - China's inbound tourism is experiencing robust growth, with nearly 132 million international visitors expected in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, and total consumption reaching $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [7] - The government has implemented measures such as lowering tax refund thresholds and increasing the number of duty-free shops to further stimulate foreign tourist spending [7] Group 3 - Local governments in China are innovating consumption models by bundling popular event tickets with discounts on hotels, dining, and travel bookings, which has significantly boosted consumer enthusiasm [10] - The live performance market is thriving, with total revenue expected to exceed 79.6 billion yuan in 2024, and over 60% of audiences attending performances in different locations, driving growth in transportation and accommodation sectors [10] Group 4 - The "Z Generation" in China, born between 1995 and 2010, is becoming a significant consumer force, characterized by emotional-driven purchasing behavior [11] - This demographic is both budget-conscious for everyday items and willing to spend on hobbies and personalized products, contributing to rapid revenue growth for related companies and injecting new vitality into the Chinese economy [11]

Group 1: Game Industry Performance - The gaming sector showed resilience with a closing increase of over 1% on May 22, 2025, with notable stocks like Kunlun Wanwei reaching a 20% limit up and Youzu Network and Iceberg Network also performing well [1] - The gaming industry is experiencing significant growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 26.719 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.93%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 47.08% to 3.482 billion yuan, indicating a recovery towards the five-year average [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption sectors, represented by pet economy and trendy toys, is driven by generational shifts in consumer behavior, particularly among Generation Z, who prioritize emotional value and personalized experiences [1] - Bubble Mart's Labubu series has successfully topped the shopping charts on the US App Store, indicating a strong market expansion and a shift from a toy supplier to a global IP group [2] Group 3: Company Profiles - Kunlun Wanwei is one of China's largest web game developers and operators, with a diverse portfolio including large-scale web games, social web games, mobile network games, and client games [2] - Iceberg Network focuses on developing large multiplayer online games using its proprietary engine technology, combining self-operated and authorized operations [2] - Sheng Tian Network has established its position in the industry with its "Yile You Wang Yu Platform" designed for internet cafes, focusing on efficient management of entertainment content and game updates [3] - Aofei Entertainment is leveraging its own anime brands to gradually launch games, exploring the value of its anime properties [3] - Shenzhou Taiyue provides high-quality gaming products for global players and digital solutions for enterprise clients [3] - Yaoji Technology is dedicated to creating high-quality original online games for leisure and entertainment [4] - Kaiying Network operates the XY.COM platform, a well-known premium web game operation platform in China [5] - Youzu Network specializes in the development, publishing, and operation of mobile and PC games [5]

新消费浪潮呼啸而来，这一撬动了Z世代年轻人"情绪密码"的赛道，在二级市场表现火热。对此，景顺 长城基金旗下基金经理张欢表示，以潮玩、宠物经济、国潮品牌等为代表的新消费赛道的快速崛起，存 在两大核心驱动力。一是消费主体的代际更替。主力消费群体从70后、80后转向Z世代，他们的消费行 为呈现出显著的"悦己"特征，更愿为情绪价值、个性化体验买单。二是消费理念的转型升级，从盲目追 求"品牌溢价"转向"质价比"优先，这种转变也直接推动了国货品牌的崛起。 与传统消费相比，新消费呈现哪些差异化特征？张欢分析称，一是新消费面向细分人群的个性化需求而 非大众市场；二是新消费增长受宏观经济波动影响较小；三是传统消费强调"存量优化"，新消费注 重"增量创造"。上述特性使得新消费板块有望走出独立行情。 面对快速迭代的新消费市场，张欢建立了系统的投资研究框架，先从微观观察和挖掘，再逻辑验证和价 值评估。"首先观察新渠道的线上数据，根据月度数据跟踪，捕捉高增长产品；其次总结高增长产品背 后的规律，寻找新赛道的共性，并对相关标的深入研究；再次进行渠道调研和草根调研，从渠道和消费 者端感知产品；最后进行财务方面的梳理，包括盈利预测等数据。" ...