戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 开年以来，"Deepseek"触发中美科技此消彼长叙事，恒生科技为代表的中国科技资产领涨全球，而美股&美元表 现不佳。战略层面："Deepseek"带来中国科技资产的价值重估，但并未逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋 势）三大底层逻辑，因此，全球资产配置仍然是反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。而战术层面："全球杠铃策略"应该如何调整，来 应对"东升西落"的新叙事？ ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that global major indices experienced a general adjustment in March, with the US stock market leading the decline, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell over 8% [5][6] - A/H shares showed strong performance in the first half of the month but retreated in the latter half, indicating resilience compared to other global markets [5][6] - The article notes a significant depreciation of the US dollar and a notable appreciation of the euro, driven by disappointing US economic data, which heightened recession concerns [5][6] Group 2 - China's economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in January and February, but the foundation remains weak, with industrial profits declining by 0.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned negative in February, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to show negative growth for 29 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic demand [8][9] - The uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of real estate sales and the impact of overseas tariffs on exports poses risks to China's economic outlook [8][9] Group 3 - The market is transitioning from a phase of "speculative expectations" to a "performance verification" window, particularly significant in April when A-share earnings reports are released [10] - The first quarter earnings reports are expected to show strong performance in certain sectors, including non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and engineering machinery, driven by structural price increases and domestic and foreign demand [12][14] - The technology sector is anticipated to report high growth, particularly in areas such as IoT, audio, and wearable devices, supported by recovery trends [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the narrowing of style gaps in the market, indicating a potential return to original styles after periods of extreme divergence, with historical examples provided [16][17] - The TMT sector's trading volume has returned to a safe zone, suggesting that market sentiment has stabilized [19] - The relationship between US and Chinese assets is highlighted, with the narrative of "East rising, West falling" becoming more pronounced, particularly in the tech sector [21][22]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股： 短期事缓则圆，中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角，我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示： 周线6连阳后，港股短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆，等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块，反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子，如：银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角，本轮 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年以来，全球AI、财政与地缘关系叙事发生重要变化，带动全球资产和资金流向出现"东升西落"迹象。 年初至今，以科技"七姐妹"（-12.4%）为代 表的美国科技股领跌全球，美元也由1月高点的110回落至104附近，回吐特朗普当选以来全部涨幅。与之相反，以恒生科技（23.1%）为代表中国科技股领 涨全球，欧洲股市（11.7%）涨幅也领先。 资金也出现小幅"东升西落"， 流入中国和欧洲市场的海外资金明显回升，流入美国的海外资金经历前两周的小 幅回落后本周又转为回升，趋势尚未彻底逆转。 图表：2025年以来全球资产出现"东升西落"趋势，美国科技龙头领跌，而港股和欧股领涨全球 注：数据截至3月28日 资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部 方向比节奏更重要， 2024年只要抓住美股、中债和黄金，整体收益就不会差。 因此"东升西落"能否真的发生、还只是"昙花一现"，是关乎未来投资主线 乃至全球格局的核心问题。 而要想回答这个问题，就首先要搞清楚美国"例外论"是否瓦解。 我们将在本文中就这一问题详细解答。 美国的"例外论"与全球资产的"东升西落" 所谓美国"例外论"，主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative of "East Rising, West Falling," highlighting the contrasting developments in the U.S. and China, particularly in the AI sector, and the implications for investment opportunities and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. market has seen a shift in focus from AI to macroeconomic issues due to changes in government policies, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [3][20]. - In contrast, the Chinese market has experienced a resurgence in stock prices since 2024, driven by renewed optimism in the tech sector, particularly AI [5][6]. - The release of DeepSeek has significantly impacted market expectations, with investors now viewing Chinese AI companies more favorably, marking a transition from negative to positive sentiment [24][25]. Group 2: AI Development Focus - The U.S. narrative around AI has been centered on scaling laws and achieving AGI, while China emphasizes practical applications and cost efficiency, as exemplified by DeepSeek's success [8][9][10]. - Manus, another AI product, illustrates the different approaches in the U.S. and China, focusing on user accessibility rather than AGI aspirations [11][12][17]. - The rapid growth of AI products in China reflects a broader trend of "pulse-like" growth, where new applications quickly gain traction among users [14][15][16]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Investors are currently more focused on the potential of AI to drive economic recovery and job creation in China, rather than solely on technological advancements [23][38]. - The performance of major Chinese tech companies, such as Alibaba and Tencent, is being closely monitored as they increase their investments in AI, indicating a shift in market expectations [24][26]. - The article suggests that the current investment climate in China resembles the U.S. market in early 2023, where large companies are expected to lead AI advancements [29][30]. Group 4: Macro and Industry Trends - The macroeconomic environment in China has improved, with consumer confidence rising and new technological breakthroughs like DeepSeek contributing to a more optimistic outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that various sectors, including energy storage and specialized manufacturing, are experiencing cyclical recoveries, further supporting the "East Rising" narrative [37]. - The discussion emphasizes the importance of addressing underlying economic issues, such as debt and consumption, to sustain growth in the long term [39][40].

本文作者：刘晨明/许向真/陈振威 报告摘要 扫描下图二维码 ， 可进入周一早8:00的路演链接 市场表现：中资科技行情波澜壮阔 1. 港股核心指数领跑全球，科技核心资产重估进行时： 截止2025年3月28日，恒生指数、恒生科技分别上涨16.8%、23.2%，在全球主要权益市场中涨幅靠前。 本轮快速上涨过后，2024年以来港股科技龙头累计涨幅已经超过美股科技龙头。 2. 如何看待抬估值行情后续&预期改善的结构性： （1）ERP：已来到过去几次高点的压力位附近，市场博弈和波动加剧。（2）市盈率与分位数：今年以来市 场涨幅主要由估值贡献。（3）PB/ROE：港股市场绝对估值水平仍不高，但全球截面来看与盈利水平匹配。恒生指数预测估值抬升、但盈利预测小幅下滑；恒 生科技盈利预测进一步上修。 基本面走到哪了：港股24年报初步统计。 截止2025年3月28日，我们统计港股初步公告的披露进度约达84%： 1. 整体法下，基本面企稳得到进一步确认。 可比口径下，24年年报全部港股、港股通（按当前成分、不追溯）、仅H股上市整体法净利润同比分别为12.0%、 4.9%、33.5%。 3. 海外资金过去半年节奏为： 特朗普胜选后主动 ...

「东升西落」的叙事 曲凯： 最近我又来美国了，发现市场真是变化太快，这边突然有人开始提到一个所谓「东升西 落」的叙事。 莫傑麟： 对，二级市场今年 1 月以来一直在演绎这个剧本，但其实 24 年就已经在为这个叙事做 铺垫了。 24 年美国的宏观环境和各项经济数据都比较好。他们一方面非常重视 AI，在所有前沿创新上也一 直绝对领先，另一方面又凭借美元的强势吸引着全球的投资。 但今年 Trump 上台之后，情况发生了变化。 Trump 在关税、财政支出上都做了很多调整，一套大刀阔斧去杠杆的动作下来，大家关注的重点 从 AI 转向了宏观问题，也对未来多了很多不确定性。 又因为过去几年，美国股市一直走高，投资人的预期已经被拉得很满。所以大家现在极度厌恶风 险，股市就会出现剧烈的震荡。 而今年的中国刚好是美国的镜像。 其实国内的股价从 24 年开始就有回升，但并不明显，直到今年 DeepSeek 的发酵才彻底引爆。 归根结底，还是因为大家之前对于中国科技行业和宏观环境的预期都太低了。 曲凯： 对，我觉得「东升西落」本质上是一种价值评判的回归，之前大家确实过于低估国内 AI 了，而 DeepSeek 就是一个典型代表。 ...

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 "纳斯达克固然强，但这轮优势在我。" 作者丨陈梓洁 编辑丨 付晓玲 曹宾玲 来源丨表外表里 "怎么就这么沉不住气呢，明明再多拿几天就回本了。" 盯着已清仓证券页面上刺眼的「-2000」总盈亏额，小羊后悔不已，恨不得穿回当时阻止自己割肉。 作为还在校的00后，打从记事起，他一直接收的舆论就是，"天天保卫3000点的大A，套你没商量； 一路向上的美股，闭眼买就能赚钱。" 怨气当然不是一天积累起来的，从特朗普上台开始，Lana感觉自己的投资运就变"霉"了：加征关税 大招一出，引发美股令人瞠目的跌幅；眼看大盘有了企稳迹象又跳出来"乱说"，股价再次下挫……循 环往复、没完没了。 可没曾想2月份一进来就对上美股大跌的行情，眼看越抄底越没底、损失不断扩大，他心态崩了，急 惶惶割肉跑路。 然而接下来的发展，让这波看起来像是"假摔"：上周底到这周，美股三大指数波动上行，技术面呈现 企稳信号。 市场的口风，一整个大逆转。华尔街集体摇旗呐喊起"美股见底"。国内美股拥趸、夹头大佬但斌，也 盯着K线乐观道："美股的 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6%, the CSI 300 Index down 2.29%, and the Wind All A Index down 2.1% [1] - Industry performance varied, with construction materials, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities showing strong results, while sectors like computers, media, electronics, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] - The market style is leaning towards mid-cap value stocks, with an average daily trading volume of 15,496.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic data for January and February showed overall improvement, especially considering the high base from the previous year; the GDP growth rates for the first two quarters of last year were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with expectations for a smoother performance this year [2] - If macro data remains stable, certain cyclical sectors may outperform expectations, requiring analysis based on industry characteristics [2] - Industries experiencing upward inventory cycles are noteworthy, as they have struggled for investor recognition in the past two years, and current downstream replenishment activities may lead to valuation and performance increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "East Rising, West Falling" is very strong, indicating a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics that could create investment opportunities in China [1][2][35]. Group 1: Geopolitical Changes - The relationship between the U.S. and China is likely transitioning from "Decoupling" to "Deal," which may alleviate U.S. inflation and boost domestic demand, thus enhancing the sustainability of U.S. finances and leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets [2][35]. - The current U.S. political landscape is characterized by intense internal party conflicts, which are reshaping the geopolitical environment and influencing the G2 relationship [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is facing a severe imbalance in its macroeconomic accounts, with a significant gap between national investment and savings, leading to a persistent current account deficit [13][14][15]. - The U.S. service trade surplus, which has historically helped balance the current account deficit, may shrink due to recent technological shifts and trade tensions [20][21][22]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is a critical opportunity for investors to capitalize on the potential revaluation of Chinese assets as external conditions change [3][36]. - The upcoming strategic opportunity for China is emphasized, suggesting that investors should be proactive in seizing these moments [47]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market fluctuations are primarily driven by collective expectations rather than just fundamental factors, indicating that investor sentiment plays a crucial role in market dynamics [4][45]. - The concept of the "multiplier effect" is highlighted, where consumer confidence and expectations can significantly influence economic behavior and market performance [39][44].