前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙16日告诉《环球时报》记者，5月中国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有 进，作为经济增长的重要引擎，消费超预期增长无疑是其中的重要亮点。不但整体上实现了6.4%的增 长，以旧换新更是带动了家用电器、消费电子等相关产品销售的大幅增长。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖16日上午在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍 说，在"五一""端午"假期、"6·18"平台促销、消费品以旧换新政策等共同作用下，5月份，社会消费品零 售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点。付凌晖强调，"以旧换新政策带动明显。家用电器和音 像器材类、通信器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额同比分别增长53%、33%、30.5%、 25.6%，合计拉动社会消费品零售总额增长1.9个百分点，比上月提高0.5个百分点。" 彭博社报道称，社零超预期加速增长，助力中国经济在5月平稳度过美国关税带来的剧烈震荡，提振了 中国应对美国政府贸易战威胁的信心。报道还称，5月份的宏观经济数据全面展示了中国如何应对美国 贸易战所引发的动荡局面。 杨德龙表示，近年来，除个别年份外，消费一直是拉动中国经济增长最重要的马车，贡献率 ...

Economic Overview - In 2023, China's economic indicators are operating within a reasonable range despite external shocks and internal challenges, supported by proactive macro policies [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release May's macroeconomic data on June 16, indicating stable economic growth with manufacturing playing a crucial role [1] Manufacturing Sector - In May, manufacturing sales accounted for 30.1% of total sales by enterprises, with equipment manufacturing sales increasing by 7.5% year-on-year [1] - Specific sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication equipment saw sales growth of 15.1%, 13.1%, and 8.6% respectively [1] High-Tech Industry - The high-tech industry experienced a year-on-year sales increase of 15% in May, continuing its rapid growth trend [1] - The core digital economy sector's sales rose by 11.2%, with digital technology procurement increasing by 10.9% [1] - Sales of industrial robots and special operation robots grew by 13.2% and 28.3% year-on-year, respectively [1] Private Sector Performance - Policies supporting the private economy have led to improved performance, with private enterprise sales growth outpacing the national average by 0.9 percentage points, reaching 72.3% of total sales [2] - Private manufacturing and high-tech enterprises also showed sales growth rates higher than their national counterparts by 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively [2] Economic Sentiment and Forecasts - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month [2] - Research institutions predict an overall improvement in domestic economic sentiment due to positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [2][3] - The economic recovery is expected to continue, with fixed asset investment growth remaining stable, particularly in manufacturing and broad infrastructure [3][4] Challenges and Outlook - Despite improvements, the real estate sector continues to decline, and uncertainties remain regarding future trade negotiations [4] - The overall economic growth is projected to maintain around 5% for the second quarter, but further policy measures may be necessary to achieve annual development goals [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the resilience and adaptability of Chinese enterprises in the face of external economic pressures, highlighting their efforts to explore new markets and upgrade their operations [5][4] - It discusses the importance of having clear goals and dreams for the future, as articulated by leaders like Xi Jinping, which serve as a guiding force for the economy [4][7] - The concept of "second breath" is introduced, illustrating how industries and companies can overcome challenges and enter new phases of growth [4][6] Group 2 - The article draws a parallel between the Chinese economy and a wheel, where the spokes represent various economic provinces and sectors working together to support overall growth [7][6] - It highlights the role of both state-owned and private enterprises in driving economic progress, emphasizing the complementary nature of different economic sectors [7][8] - The need for coordinated regional development and the establishment of new mechanisms for cross-regional cooperation is underscored as essential for economic stability and growth [7][4]

Group 1 - Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating reflects confidence in China's macroeconomic governance and signals stability to global markets [1][4] - Since September last year, China has implemented a series of incremental policies, with a fiscal deficit rate planned at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [2] - The consumer market has shown significant growth, with double-digit increases in sectors like home appliances and communication equipment, and foreign trade reaching historical highs [2] Group 2 - International investors' confidence in China's economic prospects has risen, with major foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan raising their 2025 GDP growth forecasts for China by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market has performed exceptionally well, raising a total of $9 billion this year, a 320% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand for Chinese assets in the primary market [3] - A UBS report indicates that 30% of family offices in the Asia-Pacific region plan to increase allocations to Greater China, reflecting global capital's confidence in China's capital markets [4]

经济日报文章指出，联合国日前下调了今年全球增长预期，与此同时，摩根大通、高盛等国际机构纷纷 上调中国经济增长预期。中国经济的稳健与韧性，正成为稳定全球经济的关键力量，也为全球增长贡献 了稀缺资源。4月份外部冲击影响加大，是观察中国经济韧性的一个重要窗口。事实证明，中国经济迎 难而上，保持了平稳增长，彰显出强大韧性和国际竞争力。4月份，我国货物进出口总额增长5.6%，其 中出口增长9.3%；前4个月，我国货物进出口总额增长2.4%，比一季度加快1.1个百分点。这些数据表 明，中国经济在复杂环境中保持了相对稳定的增长势头，这种稳定性本身就是一种重要的全球公共产 品，有助于对冲全球市场不确定性。(经济日报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience and stability in the face of significant external and internal pressures, with key economic indicators showing positive growth despite challenges [1][3]. External Pressures - The international environment has changed dramatically in the first four months of the year, yet China's goods import and export maintained growth, with April showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a 2.4% increase from January to April [3]. - The stability in foreign trade is attributed to diversification, timely responses from private foreign trade enterprises, and a solid industrial foundation that allows for flexibility and resilience in the global supply chain [3][4]. Domestic Demand - Insufficient domestic demand is also a pressure point, but it is being transformed into an opportunity to expand domestic demand [4]. - The government has implemented major strategic initiatives and safety capability projects, with nearly 500 billion yuan allocated in the first four months of the year to support 1,465 key projects, enhancing infrastructure and improving public welfare [5][6]. Consumer Engagement - The "old for new" consumption initiative has revitalized consumer activity, with over 300 million applications for vehicle trade-ins and significant sales in home appliances and digital products, indicating strong consumer participation [5][6]. Economic Dynamics - The Chinese economy is likened to a resilient spring, with increasing pressure leading to greater potential for growth, supported by favorable economic data related to new productive forces [8]. - The ability to withstand pressure is rooted in the leadership of the Communist Party, institutional advantages, a vast market, and the creativity of the population [8][9]. Continuous Adaptation - The approach to managing pressure is not passive but involves proactive innovation and the implementation of effective strategies [9][10].

Group 1 - The book titled "The Logic of China's Economic Development" critiques mainstream economics and its applicability to China, arguing that traditional Western economic theories fail to explain China's unique economic context [1][3] - The authors emphasize that their understanding of China's economy has been a long-term process, reflecting on its distinctiveness and deep logic, which has remained relevant despite changing circumstances over the past five years [3][4] - The emergence of new concepts such as "high-quality development" and "Chinese-style modernization" has been integrated into the authors' existing theoretical framework without significant modifications, indicating the robustness of their analysis [4] Group 2 - The authors acknowledge the unforeseen global changes, particularly the advancements in artificial intelligence, which are expected to revolutionize various sectors, including intellectual labor [4][5] - The book is positioned as a "cross-era" work, anticipating that future literature will be heavily influenced by AI, enhancing the ability to observe, understand, and predict complex phenomena, including the Chinese economy [5] - The publication process involved contributions from various academic and research institutions, highlighting a collaborative effort in refining the book's content [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of JPMorgan in China, Zhu Haibin, emphasizes that while exports may weaken, consumption and investment are expected to strengthen due to policy support, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to boost consumption [1] Economic Policy Insights - Fiscal policy has room for expansion to support stable growth, with the central government expected to implement measures [1] - There is a necessity for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly after September 2024, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate and capital markets as part of financial stability policies [1] Economic Structure Rebalancing - Expanding domestic demand and consumption are prioritized as key tasks in economic work moving forward [1]

5月21日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。 来源：澎湃新闻 责编：刘珺宇 校对：吕久彪 有记者提问，我们关注到联合国在日前发布的报告中指出，受到关税战等影响，2025年全球经济增速预计将 放缓至2.4%，比1月预测值低0.4个百分点。同时，中方也发布了4月份国民经济的运行情况。请问发言人， 如何看待关税等外部因素对中国经济的影响？是否担心中国经济会受到冲击？ 毛宁表示，国务院新闻办公室19日举行了新闻发布会，介绍了4月份国民经济运行的情况，我注意到国际媒体 纷纷用"超预期""有韧性"来评价中国经济的表现。特别值得一提的是，在面临高关税壁垒的情况下，中国外 贸保持平稳增长。今年前4个月货物进出口总额同比增长2.4%，其中出口增长7.5%，显示出过硬的国际竞争 力。 同时中国不断扩大开放，让外企在华的发展空间更大、预期更稳。这些情况都充分说明，中国完全有能力、有 条件、有底气应对各种风险挑战。 百万用户都在看 最新！特朗普，签了！ 突传利空！刚刚，暴跌超66%！ 突发！下调25个基点，直线跳水！ 突然！特朗普，重大宣布！ 利好来袭！芯片、特朗普，突传重磅！ 巴基斯坦，重大突发！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755 ...

是否担心关税战等外部因素冲击中国经济？外交部：有能力、有条件、有底气 5月21日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者提问，我们关注到联合国在日前发布的报告中指 出，受到关税战等影响，2025年全球经济增速预计将放缓至2.4%，比1月预测值低0.4个百分点。同时， 中方也发布了4月份国民经济的运行情况。请问发言人，如何看待关税等外部因素对中国经济的影响？ 是否担心中国经济会受到冲击？ 同时中国不断扩大开放，让外企在华的发展空间更大、预期更稳。这些情况都充分说明，中国完全有能 力、有条件、有底气应对各种风险挑战。 毛宁表示，国务院新闻办公室19日举行了新闻发布会，介绍了4月份国民经济运行的情况，我注意到国 际媒体纷纷用"超预期""有韧性"来评价中国经济的表现。特别值得一提的是，在面临高关税壁垒的情况 下，中国外贸保持平稳增长。今年前4个月货物进出口总额同比增长2.4%，其中出口增长7.5%，显示出 过硬的国际竞争力。 ...