这个国家就是俄罗斯。根据俄罗斯联邦海关署发布的最新数据，2024年俄罗斯对华出口额达到1115亿美 元，同比增长50.8%。更有意思的是，这些贸易往来中，人民币结算的比例已经超过了90%，黄金结算 占比约5%，美元和欧元的使用几乎降到了零。 我们来看看这个变化是怎么发生的。2022年2月以来，俄罗斯面临西方制裁，美元和欧元的使用受到了 严重限制。俄罗斯央行发布的报告显示，截至2024年12月，俄罗斯外汇储备中人民币占比已经达到 32.8%，成为第一大外汇储备货币，超过了黄金的31.2%。 昨天晚上刷新闻的时候，看到一个让人颇为意外的消息。我们楼下开超市的老张兴奋地跟我说："你知 道吗？现在有些国家做生意专门要人民币，美元都不要了！"老张这话听起来有点夸张，我仔细查了查 资料，发现确实有这样的趋势。有个国家最近宣布，在贸易结算中只接受人民币和黄金，美元和欧元都 被排除在外，而且对华出口还增长了50%。 中俄贸易的增长趋势很明显。中国海关总署数据显示，2024年中俄双边贸易额达到2401亿美元，同比增 长26.3%，创历史新高。中国已经连续14年成为俄罗斯第一大贸易伙伴国。 人民币国际化进程在加速。中国人民银行公 ...

Core Insights - The significant drop in Russian Urals crude oil prices to $36 per barrel and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices being offered at a 40% discount indicates a severe crisis in Russia's energy exports, driven by sanctions and market pressures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the price difference between Russian Urals crude oil and Brent crude oil reached $23.5, with Urals priced at $36 and Brent at approximately $60 [1]. - Russian LNG prices for exports to China were reported to be at a 60% discount compared to market prices, allowing China to save over 1.4 billion yuan monthly on energy procurement [1]. Group 2: Sanctions Impact - The U.S. imposed a financial blockade on Russia's energy sector in October 2025, targeting major oil companies and freezing their global assets, which severely restricted Russia's ability to conduct energy trade [3]. - The sanctions led to a significant reduction in shipping and insurance support for Russian oil, resulting in approximately one-third of Russia's maritime crude oil (around 1.4 million barrels per day) being stranded [3]. Group 3: Market Shrinkage - Following the U.S. sanctions, India, a major buyer of Russian oil, ceased imports, and the EU aimed to reduce Russian oil imports to nearly zero, exacerbating the crisis [5]. - Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have further diminished domestic refining capacity by 30%, crippling the transportation chain [5]. Group 4: Economic Pressures - Russia's energy sector faces immense pressure to maintain production despite losses, as halting operations incurs higher long-term costs due to equipment depreciation and maintenance [7]. - Energy revenues account for 35% of the Russian federal budget, making it critical for sustaining the economy and military expenditures [10]. Group 5: China's Position - China has emerged as a preferred buyer of Russian energy, leveraging its diversified energy supply sources to negotiate lower prices [12]. - The Chinese strategy includes prioritizing discounted LNG from Russia while focusing on higher-quality Siberian ESPO crude oil, leading to a doubling of imports from Russia in August 2025 [12]. Group 6: Infrastructure and Trade Changes - China is tying energy procurement to the development of Arctic shipping routes and expanding pipeline systems, which could significantly increase gas supply from Russia [14]. - The settlement mechanism for energy transactions between China and Russia has shifted, with over 65% of transactions now conducted in yuan and rubles, reducing reliance on the dollar [14]. Group 7: Global Market Reactions - The drop in Russian energy prices has prompted Middle Eastern oil producers to lower their prices to maintain competitiveness in the Asian market [16]. - European countries are facing internal conflicts regarding energy imports from Russia, with some nations increasing imports despite sanctions [16]. Group 8: Regional Developments - Central Asian countries are seeking to reduce their economic dependence on Russia, with initiatives to build regional infrastructure [18]. - Russia is attempting to establish new export routes through the International North-South Transport Corridor, although progress is hindered by financial and political challenges [18].

2025.11. 22 本文字数：2585，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 当前，全球经济在波动中寻求新的平衡，下行压力与结构性挑战并存。虽然全球通胀整体有所缓和， 但地缘政治冲突、供应链重构压力，以及主要经济体政策调整带来的外溢效应，依然构成严峻考验。 过去一年，美国政府贸易政策摇摆不定，引发全球贸易格局不确定性增加，国际政策协调的复杂性也 显著上升。 11月21日，由第一财经主办的 "2025第一财经金融价值年会" 在上海举行。本届年会集结国内顶尖 高校学者、金融机构高管及资本市场参与者，以"突破·韧性·跃迁"为主题，围绕人民币国际化"十五 五"前瞻、中国经济新质趋势、居民消费率提升路径等核心议题展开深入讨论，聚焦财富管理与科技 投资两大热点。 年会期间，还揭晓了"2025第一财经年度金融人物"，他们在推动行业变革、引领业务创新、深化市 场研究等方面展现出显著影响力，其实践经验与观点，为观察未来经济与金融发展的走向提供了重要 参照。 人民币汇率与中国经济新阶段：从全球变局中寻找确定性 当下世界正面临三大关键趋势：一是全球化深度调整，保护主义抬头，地缘政治与供应链风险上升； 二是科技革命重塑 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid downward pressures and structural challenges, with geopolitical conflicts and supply chain restructuring posing significant tests [1] - The "2025 First Financial Annual Financial Value Conference" held in Shanghai focused on key topics such as the internationalization of the RMB, new trends in the Chinese economy, and paths to enhance household consumption [1] - The conference highlighted influential figures in the financial industry who have significantly impacted industry transformation and market research [1] Group 2 - Three key trends are shaping the current global landscape: deep adjustments in globalization, the rise of protectionism, and the integration of technology with the economy [2] - China is entering a "dual investment" phase, balancing both inbound and outbound investments [2] Group 3 - Since the Belt and Road Initiative, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) has rapidly increased, surpassing foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015 and maintaining a leading position in most years [3] - The structure of China's trade partners has diversified, with exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN decreasing from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries have risen to approximately 47% [3] Group 4 - The internationalization of the RMB is expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant breakthroughs in trade settlement, payment systems, and reserve allocation over the past 16 years [3][5] - The necessity for RMB internationalization has increased due to changes in the global trade landscape and rising dollar credit risks [5] Group 5 - The new core variable of China's economy is the new quality productivity, driven by technological innovation and deep integration with the industrial chain [5] - The contribution of real estate to the economy has decreased to about 10%, while the stock market is benefiting from emerging industries and economic recovery [12] Group 6 - The long-term trend of the Chinese stock market remains upward, with investment opportunities in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence [12] - The conference included discussions on wealth growth in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing a shift from single yield pursuit to long-term stable allocation strategies [12][13]

第一财经总经理汪钧：在这样一个复杂多变的环境中，世界迫切需要一种在丰富经验基础上形成的新的 全球金融方案，这对于中国来说，既是挑战更是机会。 中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成： 中国已进入"双向 投资"阶段，引进来和走出去同时发展，中国贸易伙伴也日趋多元化，人民币汇率中长期或稳中有升， 更有利于中国双向开放和对外经贸关系。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平：在"十五五"期间，人民 币国际化应加快推进。过去16年来，人民币在贸易、支付、结算、储备等领域使用提升明显，但与中国 经济体量仍不匹配。当前国际环境复杂，贸易战、美元信用风险上升、去美元化加速，都使加快人民币 国际化更具必要性和现实条件。 清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩：发展新质生产力要有包容个性和 容忍失败的氛围，崭新的创投组织形式，"不太积极"的二级市场，完善健全的法治环境，稳定的宏观政 策导向。 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒：推动居民消费率明显提高，短期要构建支持名义经济增速 回升的宏观政策框架，中长期可改革制度，包括构建消费导向型的宏 ...

特朗普想稳住局面，免得中期选举栽跟头，就把目光转向中国手里那7590亿美元美债，希望通过让步换中方别抛售，甚至多买点。 特朗普团队的算盘打得挺响。停摆刚开始没多久，10月中旬，美国就放风要邀中国来访，重启谈判。美方提出降低部分中国商品关税，从原来的高位降到 47%，换中国暂停稀土出口限制，还包括大豆进口啥的。 表面看，这是贸易休战一年，但骨子里，美国是想稳住金融市场。中国减持美债的势头从2024年底就没停，12月持仓从7686亿降到7590亿，2025年头几个月 继续往下走，到2月还剩7843亿，但9月已经滑到7005亿。 美国财政压力山大，特朗普上台后就碰上棘手事。2025年头几个月，国会两党为预算案吵翻天，共和党保守派死咬着要砍开支，民主党那边护着福利资金不 放。 结果，10月1日零点一到，联邦政府部分机构就关门了，这次停摆拖了43天，创下历史最长纪录。员工没工资，公园博物馆大门紧锁，经济数据发不出来， 股市晃荡不定。 特朗普团队这时候抛出个信号，主动找中国谈经贸，背景就是美国国债堆到38万亿美元，利息支出占联邦预算近两成。美联储前几年加息，借钱成本蹭蹭上 涨，政府想再发债都费劲。 中国这边，手里美债是张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds by China in Hong Kong is a strategic move to test its creditworthiness against that of the U.S., showcasing confidence in China's economic potential and providing a new safe asset option for global capital [1][3][40] Group 1: Bond Issuance and Market Response - China successfully issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds, attracting a total subscription of $118.2 billion, nearly 30 times the issuance amount [5][11] - The 5-year bonds saw a subscription rate of 33 times, indicating strong global investor interest [5][11] - The interest rates for the 3-year and 5-year bonds were set at 3.646% and 3.787%, respectively, which, while slightly higher than U.S. Treasury rates, reflect minimal risk premium due to the overwhelming demand [11][14] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The bond issuance serves to position China's credit on par with U.S. credit, allowing international investors to assess the relative risks of lending to China versus the U.S. [11][14] - This move is seen as a challenge to the U.S. dollar's dominance, especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions and the potential for the dollar to be weaponized [18][22] - The bonds come with a unique repayment option, allowing repayment in RMB or physical assets, which mitigates the risk of U.S. financial sanctions [20][22] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The issuance is part of a broader strategy to provide low-cost financing to developing countries, particularly in Africa and South America, while allowing them to repay in RMB, thus reducing their exposure to currency risk [26][30] - This strategy encourages trade with China and the use of RMB in international transactions, potentially increasing the currency's global circulation [35][38] - The growing trade relationship with Africa, which has surpassed ASEAN as China's largest trading partner, exemplifies the effectiveness of this approach [37][40]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," indicating multiple adjustments in policy expression, regulatory focus, and framework transformation, reflecting a precise grasp of the current economic and financial situation and clarifying future policy directions [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Transmission Efficiency - The core expression of monetary policy shifted from "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustment" in the second quarter to "maintaining ample liquidity" in the third quarter, with market liquidity remaining reasonably abundant despite no reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or interest rate cuts [2] - The interbank money market rate DR001 has remained stable around the policy rate, while DR007 has operated at a level 10 basis points above the policy rate, indicating effective regulatory outcomes [2] - The report shows enhanced confidence and determination in monetary policy, emphasizing a stable and relatively loose environment while reducing the urgency of short-term counter-cyclical adjustments [2] Group 2: Transformation of Monetary Policy Framework - The report emphasizes maintaining exchange rate flexibility, strengthening expectation guidance, and preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations, with an accelerated pace for the internationalization of the Renminbi and capital account convertibility [3] - Key highlights of the monetary policy framework transformation include optimizing intermediate variables, transitioning to a price-based regulatory framework, and enhancing the linkage between asset and liability interest rates for banks [3] Group 3: Structural Measures - The report introduces three new structural measures aimed at addressing developmental shortcomings: optimizing carbon reduction support tools, improving financial support mechanisms for post-poverty alleviation, and researching personal credit repair support policies to unlock consumer potential [4] - These measures reflect a targeted approach in structural monetary policy tools to address key areas and weaknesses in the economy [4]

很多人应该感受到了。 当下我们面临的，是一次大的经济转折点。 对我们所有人来说，现在能不能看懂，以及看懂后怎么做，就变得非常重要了。 那，今年都有哪些变化是透露出这种信号的呢？ 第一个，是中美在贸易战中，美国的妥协。 今年川普上台后，故技重施，加征对等关税，限制芯片出口等等。 套路是老的，但结果是不一样的。 我记得4月7日的时候，川普搞了对等关税后，美国市场遭受了一轮股债汇三杀。 而我们这边的市场呢，也遭受到一轮大的下滑。 但也只是低迷了一天，我们的平准版资金就入市了，连带着保险、社保的资金入市，狂拉银行，最后 稳住了大盘。 后面呢，我们和美国进行了谈判，是延期了90天。 那90天又90天，直到10月30日才确定，双方休战一年。 这大概就是简单版本的故事线。 这里面值得注意的是什么。 首先，是我们的态度。 从第一次的加关税开始，我们就是很直接的态度。 正面硬刚，奉陪到底。 但别忘了，2018年的时候，是我们飞到美国去谈判的，而且后面美国撕毁协议之后，我们是被迫接受 了加关税的。 所以这一次的双方博弈，大家是能明显感受到，优势是在我们这一方的。 甚至，迫使美国松口说，想要和中国合作。 其次，是最终的结果。 双方 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cambodia has decided to store 54 tons of gold in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, marking the first instance of a country storing gold in China, which is a significant step towards promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and establishing a financial system independent of the West [4][6][10]. Group 1 - The 54 tons of gold are newly purchased by Cambodia, not transferred from other countries [5]. - This event is part of a broader strategy to encourage friendly nations to store their gold reserves in China, thereby indirectly linking the Renminbi with gold reserves [10][12]. - The strategic value of gold is increasing as the dominance of the US dollar in global reserves is declining, with its share expected to drop from approximately 72% in 2000 to about 58% by Q1 2025 [10]. Group 2 - Cambodia's decision to store gold abroad is influenced by security concerns, as smaller nations face risks of geopolitical conflicts and instability [16][20]. - The freezing of $15 billion in Bitcoin assets belonging to a Cambodian group by the US has prompted the need for secure storage options outside the US [20]. - The lack of neutral countries in Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict further solidifies China's position as a viable option for gold storage [21][22]. Group 3 - There is a growing consensus globally regarding China's rising power, with a recent report indicating an increase in positive perceptions of China among various countries [25][26]. - Low-income countries, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, view China more favorably due to its more favorable lending conditions compared to Western nations [30][32]. - Cambodia's choice to store gold in China reflects both its immediate needs and China's increasing international standing, serving as a potential model for other countries with similar foreign exchange reserve sizes [33].