Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including asphalt, crude oil, copper, etc., and provides corresponding market trend forecasts and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and trade policies [3][5][10] - For example, it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate at a high level and suggests going long on the 09 - 12 spread; crude oil has downward pressure; the copper market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [3][5][10] Summary by Commodity Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate rose 5.6 percentage points to 34.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected output in May is 231.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [3] - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries rose, but the actual demand still needs to recover due to factors such as rainfall and capital constraints [3] - Market trend: With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [3] Crude Oil - Price movement: After falling to near the previous low on May 6, the price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment and US sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [4] - Supply: OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production cut plan in April, increasing the daily supply by 411,000 barrels in May. Eight countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. There is a large supply pressure in the future [5] - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. It is currently the off - season for global crude oil consumption [5] Copper - Supply: The supply is tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high smelter costs. Although copper production has increased, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, but there is resistance to high prices. The demand in May may be slightly weaker than that in April [10] - Market trend: The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with limited up and down space, and bullish in the long - term [10] Other Commodities - **PP**: It is expected to rebound slightly as the market sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, although there are supply and demand challenges such as restricted exports and slow downstream recovery [14] - **Plastic**: It is expected to rebound slightly. The start - up rate has increased, but downstream demand has not fully recovered [15][16] - **PVC**: It may continue to rebound. The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the market has been boosted by improved macro - sentiment [17] - **Grease**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to consider buying on dips after a fall [18][19] - **Soybean Meal**: The space for further weakening is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good [20] - **Rebar**: The price may continue to fall due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and weak cost support [21][22] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price may continue to be under pressure if demand remains weak and supply pressure increases [23] - **Urea**: The short - term trend is still strong, but the up and down space is limited under the macro - price - stabilizing policy, and the export policy needs to be clarified [24][25]

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced a slight increase as investors await new signals indicating a potential easing of the global trade war [2] - The dollar index rose by 0.06% to 101.04, while the euro fell by 0.06% to 1.1177 USD [2] - The South Korean won appreciated by 0.84% to 1,402.66 USD, following discussions between South Korean and US officials regarding the foreign exchange market [3] Group 2 - Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, have recently lowered their recession forecasts for the US economy [4] - The Chicago Fed President indicated that April's consumer inflation data does not necessarily reflect the impact of rising US import tariffs [4] - The Bank of England's rate setter noted that the UK labor market is more resilient than previously expected, influencing the decision to maintain borrowing costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean economy is facing significant challenges, with a government-funded think tank drastically lowering its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Korea Development Institute has cut its economic growth forecast for 2025, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on the trade-dependent nation [1] - The revised forecast is a stark reduction from the earlier prediction of 1.6% made in February [1] Political Context - The economic challenges come at a critical time as South Korea prepares for presidential elections on June 3, with candidates vying to demonstrate their capability to handle the global trade war [1] - Leading candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party has a support rate of 49.5%, while his main rival Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party has 38.2% [1] Trade Relations - The South Korean economy has already shown signs of contraction in the first quarter, indicating that business activity is weakening before exporters fully feel the impact of new U.S. tariffs [2] - South Korea has faced a 25% tariff on key exports such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum, which was temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days starting in early April [2] Policy Recommendations - The think tank suggests that a loose monetary policy is advisable to mitigate downward price pressures resulting from slowing domestic and foreign demand [2]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 12 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+产油国从 4 月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将 5 月日均原油供应量提高 到 41.1 万桶，随后 OPEC+补偿性减产规模小幅扩大，可以很大程度覆盖 5 月份 的增产量，但五一节前哈萨克斯坦能源部长宣称石油产量水平是由国家利益决定 的，不是 OPEC+，可以看出某些国家的补偿性减产动力不足。对于 OPEC+能否真 正进行补偿性减产有待验证。5 月 3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8 个参与国将在 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日。逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产 步伐加快，另外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在 6 月批准 7 月再一次加速增产， 幅度为每日 41.1 万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到 10 月逐步 取消此前设定的 220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。美国原油产量仍在历史高位附近。 加之其他非 OPEC+释放产能，原油供给压力较大。需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时 段过去，英 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent controversy surrounding Yu Donglai and his response to online attacks, emphasizing the importance of justice, fairness, and the need for a supportive environment for entrepreneurs [1][2]. Group 1: Yu Donglai's Reflections - Yu Donglai emphasizes the transparency of his business, inviting investigations into his company, Pang Donglai, and expressing concern over the current social environment [3]. - He advocates for a legal system that effectively curbs malicious behavior and protects individual rights, highlighting the need for societal progress in legal enforcement [3]. - The article points out that casual insults and violence severely damage personal dignity and should be addressed with more effective legal consequences to prevent long-term psychological harm to victims [3]. Group 2: Social Responsibility and Business Philosophy - Yu Donglai stresses that managing harmful behaviors on online platforms is a collective responsibility, urging individuals and businesses to contribute to a civilized society [4]. - He warns against excessive tolerance, which can lead to more harm and encourages a proactive approach to justice that protects everyone [4]. - The article clarifies that Pang Donglai aims to blend Chinese culture with Swiss management practices, promoting a business model that values quality, safety, and happiness [4]. Group 3: Future Aspirations and Events - Yu Donglai reflects on his journey and the need for clearer communication of his ideals, indicating a desire to share positive values more effectively in the future [4]. - The article promotes an upcoming event from June 6 to June 8, 2025, featuring prominent speakers and emphasizing the importance of connecting with successful entrepreneurs and industry experts [5][6]. - It highlights the significance of adapting to changes in the global landscape, particularly in the context of trade wars and AI advancements, suggesting that this period could be a golden opportunity for innovators [5].

特朗普5月8日早上先在Truth Social发文称："和英国达成的协议是完整和全面的，将为巩固美英两国关系奠定长期基础。因为我们悠远的历史和联盟关系， 非常荣幸将英国作为首个宣布的协议对象。目前，多项其他协议正处于谈判的重要阶段，将陆续公布！" 斯塔默在英国中西部的一个汽车工厂接听特朗 普的电话 彭博社分析称，美英协议的细节可能将预示特朗普的全球贸易战方向。不过，美英协议似乎在两国官员的仓促之下达成，范围比较有限。 美国总统特朗普5月8日宣布，美国和英国达成关税贸易协议，这是他再次入主白宫并实施"对等关税"后达成的首份协议。彭博社指出，美英协议的细节可能 将预示特朗普的全球贸易战方向。 特朗普晚些时候在白宫正式宣布，美英达成"突破性的协议"。他表示，英国将加速开放市场，让美国产品包括牛肉、化学品和机械等进入。"协议的最终细 节将在未来几周内敲定，但协议是非常确定的。" 英国首相斯塔默在电话会议上表示，"这真是一个精彩绝伦、历史性的日子。"他指出，这项贸易协议将带动两国经贸、开放市场、创造就业机会。 根据协议，美国对大多数英国商品10%的关税将保留，25%的钢铝关税将降低至零，英国制造的前10万辆进口汽车的2 ...

英国又对美跪了，还有谁？ 近日，英国与美国签署了一项新的贸易协定，成为本轮全球关税战中首个向美国妥协的西方国家。这一举动再次引发国际社会对英国外交独立性的质疑，同 时也让外界关注其他国家的反应，尤其是中国的态度。 英国为何再次"对美下跪"？ 长期以来，英国在外交政策上对美国表现出高度的依附性，尤其是在脱欧后，英国更加依赖与美国的特殊关系来维持其全球影响力。此次英国率先与美国达 成贸易协定，本质上是其经济与外交困境的体现。 1. 经济压力下的妥协 英国脱欧后，经济面临巨大挑战，亟需稳定的贸易伙伴。美国作为全球最大经济体，自然是英国优先考虑的对象。然而，美国在贸易谈判中一贯强势，此次 协定很可能包含对英国不利的条款，例如在农产品、金融服务等领域作出让步。 2. 政治站队的必然选择 英国政府近年来在外交政策上紧跟美国，无论是乌克兰危机、对华科技封锁，还是在中东问题上的立场，英国几乎无条件支持美国。此次签署贸易协定，不 仅是经济需求，更是政治站队的体现。 3. 全球贸易战的牺牲品 当前，全球贸易保护主义抬头，美国对欧盟、中国等经济体加征关税，英国作为美国的"特殊盟友"，选择率先妥协，可能是为了避免更严重的贸易打击。但 ...

新湖期货 短期沥青盘面价格重点关注原油价格变动 冠通期货 供需双弱下，建议沥青观望 国信期货 沥青基本面呈现供需皆弱格局，价格中枢锚定原油波动 新湖期货：短期沥青盘面价格重点关注原油价格变动 近期盘面基本跟随原油价格变动。山东地区主要品牌沥青仍实行限量发货策略，市场流通资源有限，这 在一定程度上促使价格平缓回落，河北主要炼厂今日另一套装置点火，后期供应或有所提升，今日炼厂 释放6月合同，市场观望氛围浓，成交量暂不多。南方地区资源供应有所增加，华南供应持续处于高 位，而需求尚未出现爆发式增长。短期盘面价格重点关注原油价格变动。 5月7日盘中，沥青期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3441.00元。截止发稿，沥青主力合约 报3416.00元，涨幅2.18%。 沥青期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 4月16日，美国财政部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。美伊 第四轮间接谈判推迟，近期美国持续加大对伊朗的制裁，美国最新制裁从事伊朗石油贸易的实体。关注 美国对伊朗原油的制裁是否会放松。随着全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是中美贸易战继续，而且美国 ...

英国央行本周将降息25个基点，甚至可能为自2009年以来首次连续降息铺平道路，以应对美国的全球贸 易战。大多数经济学家认为，在判断美国总统特朗普的关税及其未来计划的不确定性将拖累增长并抑制 通胀后，英国央行将转向鸽派立场。 渐进且谨慎 EY Item Club顾问Matt Swannell表示，周四的会议上，英国央行降息25个基点至4.25%"几乎确定"，这 将是该央行去年加息至5.25%峰值后的第四次降息，也是今年第二次降息。 其他人认为，英国央行甚至可能出现更鸽派的转变。巴克莱银行首席英国经济学家、前英国央行经济学 家Jack Meaning表示，货币政策委员会可能为6月再次降息25个基点做好准备。若这一预测成真，除了 2020年3月新冠疫情初期的两次紧急降息外，这将是英国央行自2009年初金融危机以来首次连续降息。 上周四，市场一度预计英国央行在今年剩余六次的会议中将降息四次，每次25个基点，至3.5%。在3月 20日上一次货币政策委员会会议决定后，市场预计英国央行2025年仅降息两次，每次25个基点，至 4%。 自3月投票以来，世界发生了翻天覆地的变化。英国央行当时维持利率不变，并指出了不确定性。那 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于亚洲部分企业加大液化天然气(LNG)采购规模、加之季节性检修收紧供应规 模，欧洲天然气价格在周二小幅走高。由于亚洲企业们近期大幅增加液化天然气采购规模以及LNG厂 商们季节性维护导致供需市场趋于供应端紧张，欧洲天然气期货价格应声上涨。 欧洲天然气价格自四月份以来已经大幅下跌了15%以上，使得欧洲国家补充耗尽的天然气燃料库存变得 更加容易，但其他国家，尤其是来自亚洲的LNG需求国，比如中国与日本、韩国以及印度，这些重要 的LNG需求国家恢复购买可能会使欧洲天然气重建库存变得更加困难。 最新的交易数据显示，欧洲天然气价格基准——荷兰TTF天然气期货价格盘中一度上涨 1.8%，此前一 交易日曾大举回落。市场焦点转向全球 LNG货运竞争：继数月相对沉寂后，中国进口商们重返现货市 场采购。此外，欧盟即将公布到2027年彻底切断俄罗斯能源供应的计划，也在很大程度上推动欧洲天然 气价格重返上行轨迹，俄罗斯长期以来是欧洲最大规模的天然气供给国，然而自俄乌冲突以来俄罗斯管 道天然气运输几乎枯竭。 挪威季节维护与检修期间供应下滑 此外，欧盟也在推进其"到2027年切断俄罗斯天然气等能源"的相关计划，预计周 ...