特朗普总统真是做生意的天才啊，他忽悠全世界国家和地区，谁对中国加征关税，就能获得美国对等关税的"免死金牌"。 《华尔街日报》5月23日报道说，特朗普政府最近在与各国的谈判中，提出了一个要求，那就是对中国商品加征关税，作为与美国达成贸易协议的条件。 目前看来这项要求，是美国与其他国家地区，签署贸易协议的"硬性条件"。 这也怪不得，美国"解放日"以来的关税政策，现在已经一个多月过去了，达成的贸易协议国家，只有跟美国穿一条裤子的，同属盎格鲁撒克逊体系的英国。 连加拿大和澳大利亚这样的国家，都无法跟美国谈拢贸易协议。 《华尔街日报》在报道中，提到了一个细节，不具名的白宫官员指出，美国已经对欧盟提出了要求，坚持让欧盟加入其对中国的经济施压行动，并希望欧洲 国家对中国商品征收新关税。 除此之外对于美国而言，特朗普只不过是一个"过客"，激进的全球对等关税政策，最多只能维持4年，这是所有人都明白的。 特朗普之前已经干了一届，这次他干完四年就不可能连任了，那么对于世界各国而言，有必要冒着跟中国彻底翻脸的风险，配合特朗普这货加大对华关税 吗？ 到时候特朗普是舒服了，名利双收、风光卸任，其他国家就要面临中国的各种断供。 但是由于中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between two retail models in China: Sam's Club and Pang Donglai, highlighting how social structures and urban environments influence their business strategies and customer relationships [2][11]. Group 1: Business Models - Pang Donglai offers a long-term companionship service that is more traditional and localized, suitable for China's familiar social structure [2][12]. - Sam's Club operates on a membership sales model to enhance customer loyalty and a direct sales model to reduce costs by collaborating directly with manufacturers [5][6]. - In 2023, Sam's Club generated 80 billion in revenue from 48 stores in China, averaging 1.67 billion per store, which is ten times the revenue of Hema stores [4]. Group 2: Social Structure Impact - The article emphasizes that the social structure is a core differentiator between the two retail models, with Sam's Club thriving in urban areas characterized by a "stranger society" and Pang Donglai succeeding in smaller cities with a "familiar society" [8][11]. - Sam's Club's business logic is based on standardized offerings that provide consumers with stable expectations, while Pang Donglai's success is rooted in community recognition and social relationships [11][12]. - The article notes that the population structure and social dynamics in smaller cities have stabilized, making them more conducive to the business model of Pang Donglai [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had more rising contracts than falling ones on May 21, 2025. Crude oil faces downward pressure due to supply increases and uncertain demand. The steel market is multi - faceted, with the rebar contract in a weak shock pattern. Other commodities also have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, with different price trends expected [3][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ started to gradually relax production cuts in April, increasing daily supply to 411,000 barrels in May and planning further increases. The actual increase last month was only 25,000 barrels per day, lower than the plan. The US crude production is near a historical high, and non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing capacity. The Iran nuclear deal may be signed, increasing supply pressure. Demand is affected by the lingering impact of the global trade war and is in the off - season. Crude oil has downward pressure but is also affected by geopolitical risks [3] Rebar - The rebar main contract showed a weak shock trend. Production and apparent demand increased, while factory inventory decreased and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. However, the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. Supply contraction is difficult in the short term, and cost support has weakened. The market is a game between weakening demand and macro - policy support, with limited short - term upward space [6] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on May 21, domestic futures main contracts had more rising than falling ones. Alumina rose over 3%, while the container shipping European line fell over 7%. Index futures and bond futures also had different performance. In terms of capital flow, there were inflows and outflows in different contracts [8][9] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, but actual demand is yet to recover. Refinery inventory is at a low level. With the possible signing of the Iran nuclear deal and crude oil fluctuations, asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [11] Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand has not fully recovered. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, plastic is expected to have a small rebound [13] PP - The PP downstream production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream recovery is slow. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, PP is expected to have a small rebound [14] PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still relatively low. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports, and inventory pressure is large. After a decline in the futures price, it may have a small rebound due to improved macro - sentiment [16] Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil main contract rose slightly. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased. With the opening of the export window after Sino - US negotiations, demand is expected to strengthen, and the price may rise [17][18] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed an upward trend after opening low. The central bank's LPR cut and the US economic situation have different impacts on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight, but actual reduction is not obvious. Demand is in the off - season, and copper prices are under pressure but show an upward shock trend [19] Urea - Urea showed an upward trend after opening high. Supply is stable with a slight decline, and demand is currently weak. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term but may weaken later [21] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock trend. The tariff negotiation result is good, but the fundamentals are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand has seasonal characteristics. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [22][24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillating Upward", and the strategy is to "Sell Short at High Prices" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, and there is a possibility of accelerating production increases. The actual production increase in May was lower than planned, and the implementation of compensatory production cuts is yet to be verified. The U.S. crude oil production is near a historical high, and with other non-OPEC+ countries releasing production capacity and the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, there is significant pressure on crude oil supply [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, and some economic cooperation agreements have been reached. However, the pessimistic expectations of the economic damage caused by the trade war have not been fully reversed. Currently, it is the off-season for global crude oil consumption. With the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, the crude oil price has reached a resistance level, and there is still downward pressure on crude oil [1] - The signing of the Iran nuclear deal is not as optimistic as previously expected, and there are geopolitical risks, but the probability of Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future is low under U.S. pressure [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2507 contract, rose 1.18% to 470.1 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 462.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1234 to 29076 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. The IEA raises the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 20,000 barrels to 740,000 barrels per day, and expects the growth rate to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025. The 2026 forecast is raised by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. The IEA also raises the 2025 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. EIA data shows that for the week ending May 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.454 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels [3] - On the supply side, OPEC's March crude oil production was revised down by 4,000 barrels per day to 26.772 million barrels per day, and its April 2025 production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 26.71 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Venezuela and Iran. The U.S. crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 13.387 million barrels per day in the week of May 9 [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.836 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%. The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 0.88% to 8.794 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.006 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.77%. The weekly demand for diesel increased by 7.27% to 3.777 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.688 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. However, the supply of propane decreased significantly, causing the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to decrease by 2.17% month - on - month [4]

热点品种 原油： 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 欧佩克+产油国从 4 月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将 5 月日均原油供应量提高 到 41.1 万桶。5 月 3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8 个参与国将在 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日。 逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另 外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在 6 月批准 7 月再一次加速增产，幅度为每日 41.1 万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到 10 月逐步取消此前设 定的 220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。从最新的欧佩克月报上看，同意增加供应的 八个国家上个月共只增加了 2.5 万桶/日，低于计划的 13.8 万桶/日。目前 OPEC+ 暂未进入增产节奏。不过 OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性减产有待验证，美国原油产 量仍在历史高位附近。加之其他非 OPEC+释放产能，伊朗核协议或将签署，后续 原油供给压力较大。对于需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，英国和美国就关 税贸易协 ...

互加关税一个月以后，中美之间的谈判已经落地。但是这并不意味着全球贸易战的结束。相反，迄今为 止，全球依然有超过一半的国家没有和美国达成关税协定。 中美关税战还在持续 作为美国的邻国，墨西哥是美国最大的贸易伙伴。然而，墨西哥和美国的协议不仅仅影响这两个国家。 而且因为墨西哥已经成为中国乃至其他各国的转口国家。所以墨西哥其实是包括中国在内的世界各国， 通往美国的一个贸易通道。 对此，美国财政部长贝森特警告：如今90天的"对等关税"暂缓期限已经过半，如果不能和美国达成新一 轮的关税协定，那么就意味着美国对这些国家的关税，将回到4月2日的"对等关税"的税率。 而迄今为止，欧盟、日本、印度等主要国家和经济体依然没有和美国达成协议。就算是中国这边，依然 还需要和美国再次谈判，毕竟中美之间还有24%的"保留税率"需要谈判。 那么，面对美国的极限施压，这些国家是否会选择屈服？中美之间的24%缓冲关税又会谈成什么样子？ 今天我们就来深度解读这些话题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 全球贸易战开启"激烈谈判" 虽然美国宣布"对等关税"。但是从贸易体量来看，特朗普仅仅拟定了18个"重点贸易谈判对象"。可截止 目前，仅仅只有中国和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including asphalt, crude oil, copper, etc., and provides corresponding market trend forecasts and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and trade policies [3][5][10] - For example, it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate at a high level and suggests going long on the 09 - 12 spread; crude oil has downward pressure; the copper market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [3][5][10] Summary by Commodity Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate rose 5.6 percentage points to 34.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected output in May is 231.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [3] - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries rose, but the actual demand still needs to recover due to factors such as rainfall and capital constraints [3] - Market trend: With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [3] Crude Oil - Price movement: After falling to near the previous low on May 6, the price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment and US sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [4] - Supply: OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production cut plan in April, increasing the daily supply by 411,000 barrels in May. Eight countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. There is a large supply pressure in the future [5] - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. It is currently the off - season for global crude oil consumption [5] Copper - Supply: The supply is tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high smelter costs. Although copper production has increased, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, but there is resistance to high prices. The demand in May may be slightly weaker than that in April [10] - Market trend: The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with limited up and down space, and bullish in the long - term [10] Other Commodities - **PP**: It is expected to rebound slightly as the market sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, although there are supply and demand challenges such as restricted exports and slow downstream recovery [14] - **Plastic**: It is expected to rebound slightly. The start - up rate has increased, but downstream demand has not fully recovered [15][16] - **PVC**: It may continue to rebound. The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the market has been boosted by improved macro - sentiment [17] - **Grease**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to consider buying on dips after a fall [18][19] - **Soybean Meal**: The space for further weakening is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good [20] - **Rebar**: The price may continue to fall due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and weak cost support [21][22] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price may continue to be under pressure if demand remains weak and supply pressure increases [23] - **Urea**: The short - term trend is still strong, but the up and down space is limited under the macro - price - stabilizing policy, and the export policy needs to be clarified [24][25]

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced a slight increase as investors await new signals indicating a potential easing of the global trade war [2] - The dollar index rose by 0.06% to 101.04, while the euro fell by 0.06% to 1.1177 USD [2] - The South Korean won appreciated by 0.84% to 1,402.66 USD, following discussions between South Korean and US officials regarding the foreign exchange market [3] Group 2 - Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, have recently lowered their recession forecasts for the US economy [4] - The Chicago Fed President indicated that April's consumer inflation data does not necessarily reflect the impact of rising US import tariffs [4] - The Bank of England's rate setter noted that the UK labor market is more resilient than previously expected, influencing the decision to maintain borrowing costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean economy is facing significant challenges, with a government-funded think tank drastically lowering its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8%, down from a previous estimate of 2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Korea Development Institute has cut its economic growth forecast for 2025, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on the trade-dependent nation [1] - The revised forecast is a stark reduction from the earlier prediction of 1.6% made in February [1] Political Context - The economic challenges come at a critical time as South Korea prepares for presidential elections on June 3, with candidates vying to demonstrate their capability to handle the global trade war [1] - Leading candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party has a support rate of 49.5%, while his main rival Kim Moon-soo from the People Power Party has 38.2% [1] Trade Relations - The South Korean economy has already shown signs of contraction in the first quarter, indicating that business activity is weakening before exporters fully feel the impact of new U.S. tariffs [2] - South Korea has faced a 25% tariff on key exports such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum, which was temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days starting in early April [2] Policy Recommendations - The think tank suggests that a loose monetary policy is advisable to mitigate downward price pressures resulting from slowing domestic and foreign demand [2]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 12 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+产油国从 4 月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将 5 月日均原油供应量提高 到 41.1 万桶，随后 OPEC+补偿性减产规模小幅扩大，可以很大程度覆盖 5 月份 的增产量，但五一节前哈萨克斯坦能源部长宣称石油产量水平是由国家利益决定 的，不是 OPEC+，可以看出某些国家的补偿性减产动力不足。对于 OPEC+能否真 正进行补偿性减产有待验证。5 月 3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8 个参与国将在 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日。逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产 步伐加快，另外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在 6 月批准 7 月再一次加速增产， 幅度为每日 41.1 万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到 10 月逐步 取消此前设定的 220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。美国原油产量仍在历史高位附近。 加之其他非 OPEC+释放产能，原油供给压力较大。需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时 段过去，英 ...