智通财经APP获悉，3月，日本劳动力市场在很大程度上依旧保持紧张态势，为薪资上涨提供了动力， 然而全球贸易战带来的不确定性，仍令其前景蒙上阴影。 日本央行在其最新展望中表示，"由于女性和老年劳动力供应的增加将变得更加困难"，劳动力市场将继 续保持紧张状态。央行还补充称，名义工资增长率在短期内可能会维持在较高水平。 在日本央行做出决策前进行的一项调查显示，关注日本央行政策的观察人士预计加息将会推迟，且本轮 政策周期结束时关键政策利率的水平也会更低。预计9月前会加息的人士比例，从上次调查中的89%骤 降至45%。 在沸沸扬扬美国加征关税之际，尤其是对汽车征收的25%关税对一些日本企业造成了冲击，日本政府正 加大对经济的支持力度。本周早些时候，特朗普签署了部分指令以缓解部分关税对汽车行业的影响，但 25%的关税仍然保留。 日本内务省周五发布的数据显示，3月失业率从前一个月的2.4%微升至2.5%。厚生劳动省的另一份报告 指出，求职倍率从2月的1.24升至1.26，这意味着每100位求职者对应着126个工作岗位，经济学家此前预 测的数值为1.25。 由于企业纷纷试图通过提高薪酬来招聘和留住员工，紧张的劳动力市场将持续 ...

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 美国一季度GDP负增长 美国商务部4月30日公布最新数据显示，2025年第一季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比 按年率计算萎缩0.3%。2024年第四季度，美国GDP环比按年率计算增长2.4%。 据路透社30日报道，由于第一季度美国国内生产总值不及预期，引发了在全球贸易战背景 下市场对美国经济放缓的担忧，美国股指期货应声下跌。 金价大跳水！ 有人一夜亏超47万 北京时间4月30日晚，黄金价格大跳水，截至30日21时30分， 现货黄金跌破3280美元/盎 司关口，最新报3279.27美元/盎司，日内跌1.13%；COMEX黄金期货主力最新报3294.1 美元/盎司，日内跌1.18%。 据消费日报30日报道，多位受访者指出，当前不少消费者更加关注黄金价格走势，或希望 以较低的价格"上车"，或希望将手中金饰高位变现，也有消费者持保守观望态度。但金价 正处于震荡阶段，黄金买卖需理性，切勿追涨杀跌。消费者在黄金回购时应提前了解回收标 准、要求，并保留好相关凭证。 据华夏时报报道，记者注意到，在某金融平台， 有投资者高位上车，于4月22日以829元/ 克均价买入超千万元黄金积存金，并在次日金价 ...

美国商务部4月30日公布最新数据显示，今年第一季度美国GDP环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%。这一数据的 糟糕程度超出市场预期，凸显美国政府关税政策引发的不确定性持续上升，并导致企业与消费者信心下 滑，同时引发了在全球贸易战背景下市场对美国经济放缓的担忧，美国股指期货开盘也应声下跌。与此 同时，总统特朗普对美经济前景仍然乐观，呼吁民众"保持耐心"。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - ArcelorMittal SA warns that the ongoing global trade tensions, particularly due to aggressive U.S. tariffs and European support for local steel companies, may significantly impact steel demand and the overall supply chain costs and profits in the steel industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - ArcelorMittal reported that the global trade turmoil could lead to lower steel demand than previously anticipated, which was initially projected to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% outside of China [1][2]. - The company's first-quarter EBITDA reached $1.58 billion, slightly exceeding analysts' expectations of approximately $1.56 billion, driven by strong performance in iron ore mining [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. government expanded a 25% steel import tariff to all countries, including major suppliers Canada and Mexico, while Europe has also intensified trade protection measures to counteract cheap steel imports from Asia [2]. - The CEO of ArcelorMittal expressed caution regarding the short-term outlook, indicating that unresolved global trade uncertainties could harm business confidence and disrupt the global economy [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The long-term effects of the escalating trade war on the steel industry remain unclear, but short-term indications suggest a potential cooling of global steel demand [2]. - The U.S. effective tariff rate is currently close to 23%, the highest in over a century, which has significantly impacted consumer and business confidence in the U.S. [4].

受全球贸易前景不确定性的影响，惠誉评级近期大幅下调了世界经济增长预测0.4个百分点，预计今年 世界经济增长将跌破2%。若不计疫情影响，这将是2009年以来最弱的全球增长率。 惠誉评级首席经济学家布莱恩·库尔顿（Brian Coulton）在接受第一财经记者专访时表示，预计到今年 第四季度，美国经济同比增幅将放缓至0.5%以下。 "虽然不是经济衰退，但也放缓至爬行速度。当增长如此疲软时，无须太多额外的负面冲击就会将美国 推入衰退区域。"库尔顿补充道。 库尔顿认为，短期内，关税将导致美国的商品供应受到更多限制，并预测未来12个月核心消费品价格将 显著上涨。与此同时，关税不确定性叠加通胀、通胀预期飙升，"短期内伴随美国经济前景恶化，美联 储紧急降息的可能性很小。" 同时，他还对特朗普政府寻求对各国实现贸易平衡的执念感到"非常奇怪"，并认为这在实际操作中无法 实现，"若耐克工厂继续在越南生产运动鞋，越南将继续对美国保持贸易盈余，事实就是如此。" 库尔顿认为，中国经济有足够的勇气来应对特朗普的关税政策，"中国对欧洲和美国的出口体量相当， 并且对其他新兴市场经济体的出口也非常可观。中国本土价值链也在不断提升。"他解释称， ...

Core Viewpoint - Snap Inc reported a slight revenue increase in Q1, but faces significant challenges due to macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs, leading to a refusal to provide revenue guidance for the current quarter [1][2][5] Financial Performance - Snap's Q1 revenue reached approximately $1.36 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, slightly above Wall Street's expectation of $1.35 billion [2][3] - The company reported a net loss of about $140 million, which is a 54% reduction compared to the previous year's loss [3] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 137% year-over-year to $108 million [3] User Metrics - Snapchat+ subscription users grew by 59% year-over-year, reaching approximately 15 million [3] - Monthly active users reached 900 million, nearing the significant milestone of 1 billion [3] Advertising and Market Position - The number of advertising clients increased by 60% year-over-year, with direct response ads accounting for 75% of quarterly ad revenue, a record high [3] - Snap's advertising strategy focuses on high engagement from Gen Z and utilizes AR technology, differentiating itself from larger platforms like Meta and Pinterest [4] Economic and Regulatory Environment - The company is impacted by the Trump administration's tariff policies, which have led to a tightening of advertising budgets among some advertisers [1][2][5] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is currently close to 23%, the highest in over a century, affecting consumer and business confidence [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices are currently in a state of long - short game on the trading board. As the subsequent macro - sentiment is gradually digested, the market is expected to return to fundamentals and remain in a volatile range in the short term [3][5]. - Given the repeated tariff policies and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach to crude oil [6]. - For asphalt, with both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. - PP is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. - Plastic is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. - PVC is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. - Urea may experience a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations on the trading board [17]. Summary by Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - **Supply**: As of April 25, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) is - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee is - 4.04 cents per pound, with negative values continuing to expand. In March, the refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%; the imported refined copper volume was 354,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The market still anticipates a tight supply [3]. - **Demand**: After the price increase, pre - May Day stocking was scattered. In the peak season, downstream demand was relatively strong, and the downstream operating rate was high. In the first two months of 2025, the global apparent refined copper usage increased by about 1%. In China, the apparent demand increased by about 1.6%. The net refined copper imports decreased by 11%. Terminal demand from power grid investment, household appliances, and automobiles brought an increase in copper demand, and copper inventory decreased significantly within the month [3]. - **Price Outlook**: The current trading board is in a long - short game. After the macro - sentiment is digested, the market will return to fundamentals and remain volatile in the short term [3][5]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC + started to gradually relax the production - cut plan in April and increased the daily crude oil supply in May to 411,000 barrels. However, the motivation for compensatory production cuts in some countries is insufficient. The US crude oil production is still near a historical high, and other non - OPEC + countries are also releasing production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure [6]. - **Demand**: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the global economic growth rate is expected to decline. The three major crude oil institutions have lowered their forecasts for the global crude oil demand growth rate. May is the off - season for global crude oil consumption [6]. - **Price Outlook**: Given the repeated tariff policies and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach [6]. Asphalt - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 2.0 percentage points to 30.7%, higher than the same period last year. The expected production in May is 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons (1.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (1.3%) [11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the downstream operating rate of asphalt increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to 24.5%. The actual demand still needs to be restored [11]. - **Price Outlook**: With both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. PP - **Supply**: The operating rate of PP enterprises has risen to about 78.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remains at about 29%. Exxon's two sets of equipment in Huizhou have been put into production, and there are many maintenance devices recently [13]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate of PP has decreased slightly, and the demand recovery is slow [12][13]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. Plastic - **Supply**: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 91%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Inner Mongolia Baofeng 2, and ExxonMobil Huizhou Phase I have been put into production, and some maintenance devices have restarted recently [14]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is basically stable. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and the packaging film orders have increased slightly. The downstream demand has not fully recovered, and the new orders are slow to follow up [14]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. PVC - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate has increased to 78.63%. The spring inspection scale in April is less than that of last year, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly this week [15][16]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PVC has not changed much and is still low compared to previous years. The real - estate data from January to March has slightly improved, but the year - on - year figures are still negative [16]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. Urea - **Supply**: The operating rate has increased, and the daily output has exceeded 200,000 tons. Some factories still have复产 plans after the May Day holiday [17]. - **Demand**: The holiday stocking is basically over. The demand from agricultural dealers is limited, and the demand from compound fertilizer factories is the main source. The demand for urea is expected to increase slightly after the summer fertilizer demand is released [17]. - **Price Outlook**: The current trading board is affected by negative sentiment, and the demand is weakening. There may be a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts [17]. Futures Market Overview - **Closing Prices**: As of April 29, most domestic futures main contracts fell. The container shipping index (European line) fell by more than 7%, and pulp and alumina fell by more than 3%. In terms of gains, staple fiber, asphalt, and international copper rose by nearly 1%. Among stock - index futures, the IF main contract fell by 0.20%, the IH main contract fell by 0.35%, the IC main contract rose by 0.23%, and the IM main contract rose by 0.70%. Among treasury - bond futures, the TS main contract rose by 0.01%, the TF main contract rose by 0.13%, the T main contract rose by 0.23%, and the TL main contract rose by 0.69% [8][9]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:18, funds flowed into alumina 2509 (460 million), CSI 1000 2506 (397 million), and ten - year treasury bonds 2506 (268 million). Funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2506 (1.381 billion), Shanghai silver 2506 (486 million), and palm oil 2509 (298 million) [9].

在特朗普关税政策掀起的市场动荡中，德银的债券和货币交易收入创下十二年新高，推动公司一季度营 收增长9.6%，净利润暴增39%。同时，德银因美国加征关税可能带来的影响增加信贷拨备，管理层警告 全球贸易战阴云依然笼罩市场。 德意志银行周二公布第一季度财报。关键财务数据如下： 这些业绩标志着德银完成了一个重要的里程碑——该行现已收复了2015年至2019年期间的全部亏损。德 银首席执行官Christian Sewing表示： 第一季度的结果使我们有望实现2025年的全部目标。 交易业务创纪录 一季度业绩的强劲表现，部分归功于其全球投资银行业务在波动性市场环境下的债券和货币交易业务表 现抢眼。 德银固收和货币交易业务第一季度收入飙升17%至29亿欧元，创下2013年以来的最高水平，这也超出了 分析师的预期。 虽然不良贷款拨备同比减少27%，但整体信贷损失拨备增至4.71亿欧元，比预期高16%。该行特别提到 为表现良好的贷款额外增加了1.3亿欧元的拨备，这部分包括"与美国地缘政治和宏观经济前景不确定性 相关的叠加因素"。 Sewing在给员工的备忘录中警告： 潜在的全球贸易战阴影仍笼罩在市场之上。虽然我们希望局势不会恶 ...

欧洲央行调查：欧元区通胀预期在美关税前上升 金十数据4月29日讯，欧洲央行周二调查显示，在美国对大多数国家加征关税、发起可能削弱经济增长 的全球贸易战之前，欧元区消费者在3月提高了对未来几年的通胀预期。未来12个月的通胀预期为 2.9%，高于上月调查的2.6%；未来三年通胀预期从2.4%升至2.5%。尽管此类上升通常会引起欧洲央行 警惕，但该数据采集于美国加征关税前，而关税政策已根本性改变全球经济前景。欧元走强、能源价格 下跌、经济增长可能减弱，这些因素都有可能降低物价增长。由于前景发生了巨大变化，欧洲央行在4 月再次降息，并警告经济增长乏力。一些政策制定者甚至认为通胀目标再次失守2%的风险。 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is expected to take measures to alleviate the impact of its auto tariff policy, including preventing the stacking of tariffs on imported cars and easing tariffs on certain imported auto parts [1][4] - The decision will have retroactive effects, allowing car manufacturers who have already paid tariffs to apply for refunds [1][4] - The new measures include adjustments to the previously announced 25% tariff on foreign auto parts, with potential tax refunds for manufacturers based on the value of cars produced domestically [4][5] Group 2 - The 25% tariff on imported cars and key auto parts officially took effect on May 3, which is seen as a significant escalation in the trade war following tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][5] - The tariffs are expected to have a severe impact on economies of neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico, as well as allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, prompting strong reactions from foreign governments [4][5] - Many U.S. companies and media outlets express concerns that the auto tariffs could negatively affect the U.S. economy, with predictions of increased car costs for consumers and potential job losses in the auto industry [5]