美联储决议公布后，美元指数大幅拉升，日内一度大涨超1%，美股三大指数波动不大。贵金属全线大 涨，现货黄金一度站上5500美元/盎司。 鲍威尔在随后召开新闻发布会，并详细阐述利率决定和经济前景展望。 鲍威尔表示，关税上涨对消费价格的影响已基本传导完毕，即将达到峰值，然后开始下降，但前提是没 有新的重大关税上调措施出台。他还强调，美联储官员都致力于维护独立性。 来源：视觉中国 美联储于北京时间周四凌晨公布政策决定，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之 间。 会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。联邦公开市场 委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很高。 在此之前，市场已完全消化了利率不变的预期。分析师重点关劳动力市场评估、通胀趋势研判、中性利 率判断。 市场已定价美联储在年内正式降息两次，首次降息预期在7月，也就是新任美联储主席就职之际。特朗 普提名的人选可能在一周左右内揭晓。 美联储还很可能会参考通胀数据来决定何时再次降息。摩根士丹利认为，对今年晚些时候通胀回落的信 心将使美联储保留宽松倾向。 与此同时，白宫方面正 ...

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on interest rate policy, in Washington, D.C., U.S., Jan. 28, 2026.The Federal Reserve wrapped up a two-day policy meeting Wednesday, delivering pretty much what the market expected and no major surprises from Chair Jerome Powell's news conference. Here are five things worth remembering:The decision: To no one's surprise, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Commit ...

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it will leave interest rates unchanged, breaking a streak of three straight rate cuts amid uncertainty over the labor market and inflation. Fed policymakers voted to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The move follows three successive 25 basis point rate cuts in September, October and December to close out last year.Economic data showing a slowdown in the labor market along with inflation continuing to run hotter ...

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos最新撰文：美联储如期维持利率不变，且并未明确交代何时可能恢复降 息。在12月的预测中，19名官员中有12名预计今年至少再降息一次是合适的。答案取决于以下哪种情形 先出现：是就业市场的崩溃，还是通胀确信地重新向2%的目标回落。自12月以来，这两者均未发生。 就业增长已大幅放缓，但失业率保持稳定。受政府停摆导致的统计中断影响，通胀数据变得扑朔迷离。 如果劳动力市场没有进一步走弱，下一次降息可能要等到鲍威尔今年5月美联储主席任期结束之后。 ...

欧洲信用债的违约保护成本稳定，眼下市场正等待将于格林威治时间1900公布的美联储利率决议。 ActivTrades的Frank Sohlleder在一份报告中称，市场预计美联储将维持利率不变，但将关注未来几个月 利率前景的任何指引。美国经济前景更加乐观可能预示着美联储未来几个月将暂停降息，不过由于劳动 力市场表现疲软，仍有可能进一步降息。标普全球市场财智的数据显示，追踪欧元高收益信用违约掉期 的iTraxx Europe Crossover指数持平于241个基点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

北京时间周四凌晨，美联储将迎来2026年的首场利率决议。在经济增长展现韧性、股市徘徊于历史高位、且通胀持续高于目标水平的背景下，市场普遍预期 本次会议将"按兵不动"，维持利率不变。然而，此次决议恰逢地缘政治与贸易不确定性交织、金银价格双双高企的复杂环境，使其成为一次关键会议，其对 市场的指引或将比单纯的利率决策更为微妙。投资者的目光将高度聚焦于会后美联储主席鲍威尔在货币政策新闻发布会上的每一处措辞。 经济增长超趋势：尽管利率维持在限制性水平，美国经济仍展现出超乎预期的韧性。在消费支出和财政政策的支撑下，2025年第三季度GDP年化增长率高达 4.3%。市场预计2025年全年增长约2.2%，而对2026年的增长预测甚至被上调至2.3%左右，持续高于美联储约1.8%的长期趋势预期。人工智能、基础设施等 领域的强劲投资，构成了经济增长的核心动力。 通胀粘性与增长韧性并存：美国的通胀水平虽已从2022年的峰值显著回落，但下行之路近期出现波折，持续位于2%的目标之上。2025年12月消费者价格指 数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与11月持平。核心通胀率徘徊在2.6%左右，显示出住房、食品等领域的价格压力依然顽固。美联储更 ...

北京时间周四3点，美联储将公布利率决议，主席鲍威尔将在30分钟后举行新闻发布会。尽管悬念不 多，可能也不会有什么大动作，但鲍威尔或试图将市场的注意力重新引回经济层面。外界普遍预计，在 连续三次降息后，美联储将维持利率不变。 这也是自鲍威尔收到大陪审团传票以来的首次公开亮相，几天前最高法院刚听取了关于试图罢免另一位 美联储理事的辩论，因此发布会势必会涉及有关政治压力、央行独立性以及鲍威尔在5月任期结束后有 何打算的问题。 在经历了一系列充满争议的降息后，本月维持利率不变的决定可能会获得决策者的广泛支持。虽然大多 数官员在之前的降息中同意为疲软的劳动力市场提供支撑，但另一派决策者则主张关注点应维持在居高 不下的通胀上。 "总的来说，美联储只想按兵不动。他们觉得有时间观望，"前美联储副主席Roger Ferguson周一表 示，"这感觉像是一次观望会议，我们都应该倾听是否有任何暗示或对未来行动的倾向。" FOMC未来的走向将通过会后政策声明以及主席鲍威尔随后的新闻发布会显现端倪。根据芝商所的美联 储观察工具，市场目前预计美联储今年将降息一到两次，最有可能在6月和12月。 然而，关注的焦点无疑将超越利率决定和未来指引 ...

Group 1 - The race for the next Federal Reserve chair is nearing its conclusion, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant indicating that President Trump may announce his choice soon, and BlackRock's Rick Reer has seen a rise in his odds of being selected [1][2] - Candidates for the position include former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, with Waller facing a critical decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting [2][3] - Waller's vote at the FOMC meeting is crucial; he can either align with President Trump's preference for lower rates or maintain his independence by voting to hold rates steady, which could impact his candidacy [4][6] Group 2 - The President seeks a candidate who is loyal and aligns with his views, expressing concerns about appointing someone who may not adhere to his preferences once in office [8][9] - The candidates with closer ties to Trump, Worsh and Hasset, are seen as more favorable due to their established relationships, while Waller and Reer are viewed as outsiders [9][10] - Recent economic data, such as durable goods orders, shows positive trends, but the Fed's willingness to cut rates again will depend on inflation progress or significant labor market concerns [11][12][14] Group 3 - The upcoming FOMC meeting will be significant, as it will be the first time Chair Jay Powell addresses reporters since a criminal investigation was initiated against the Fed, adding political drama to the proceedings [16][18] - The President is cautious about making a choice he may regret, as he has expressed dissatisfaction with his previous selection of Powell, indicating a desire for a trustworthy candidate [19][20] - The announcement regarding the interest rate decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern, with extensive coverage expected [21]

2026.01. 27 本文字数：1935，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间1月27日（周二），为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预期，联邦公开市场委员会FOMC料将把基准利率维持在当前区间。本次会议不会发布新的经济和 政策预期，但市场目前预计，美联储将暂停进一步降息至5月之后，届时降息举措大概率由鲍威尔的继任者 推动。另一个焦点在于，鲍威尔将如何回应独立性和继任者问题。 降息料按下暂停键 按照日程安排，美联储于美东时间周三下午2点（北京时间周四凌晨3点）公布利率决议，半小时后，美联储 主席鲍威尔将出席新闻发布会。 自去年9月起，美联储连续三次议息会议采取降息，累计降息75个基点，将基准利率下调至3.50%-3.75%的 区间。虽然，重启降息周期源于美国就业市场招聘放缓，然而一系列降息决策的出台过程颇具争议——部分 美联储官员明确反对降息，而理事米兰则主张以更快的节奏下调利率，两派意见的分歧多次公开显现。 第一财经记者汇总发现，上一次会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势均无明显变化，就业 增长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业 ...

General Information - Report Title: Exchange Rate High-Frequency Tracking [1] - Analysts: Zhang Jing (Qualification No. F3022617, Investment Consultation No. Z0013604), Cheng Xiaoqing (Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635) [2] Report Core View - The recent upward movement of the 10V US Treasury yield and dollar fluctuations are mainly due to three factors: the risk of a stronger US Treasury yield caused by a stable US labor market and strong inflation; the tariff uncertainty from the "Greenland conflict" reigniting concerns about de-dollarization; and the spillover effect of Japanese bond yields. If inflation remains at a relatively high level and the labor market stays in a "low-speed balance," the short-term path of Fed monetary easing may be unsupported, and the dollar index may show a "weak first, then strong" pattern [2] Summary by Related Content Exchange Rate Core Logic - The risk of a stronger US Treasury yield is due to a stable US labor market, especially the unemployment rate, and strong inflation. As the PMI employment index and initial jobless claims have not deteriorated significantly, the market's expectation of this year's interest rate cut has been postponed [2] - The "Greenland conflict" has led to tariff uncertainty, reigniting concerns about de-dollarization. Trump's policies have affected some sovereign investors' asset allocation decisions, and if policy uncertainty persists, it may lead to a broader reevaluation of US Treasury asset allocation by international capital [2] - The spillover effect of Japanese bond yields: On January 19, Kao Ichimasa announced the dissolution of the parliament for early elections and proposed more radical tax cuts, causing market concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation. Poor Japanese bond auction results have also deepened concerns about long-term bond demand [2] Economic Index Tracking - The difference between the US and European Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded [3] - The difference between the US and European long-term inflation expectations is in a certain range [5] - The difference between the US and European short-term interest rate expectations has increased [7] - The US long-term inflation expectation has risen [7] - The US short-term interest rate expectation has changed [9] - The VIX index has fallen back to a low level [11] - The euro swap basis shows that the pressure on cross-border dollar liquidity is limited [13] - The CFTC net position shows that the dollar maintains a net negative position exposure [17] - The term spread continues to narrow when looking at US Treasury deficit concerns and the dollar trend from the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread [19] Correlation with Other Assets - There is a certain relationship between the dollar index and the gold-to-copper ratio [24] - There is a relationship between the dollar and copper prices, and copper prices have changed [27] - There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and crude oil prices, and crude oil prices have changed [29] - There is a relationship between the US dollar-yuan central parity rate and the spot exchange rate [35]