文 ｜ 明明 彭阳 章立聪 周成华 我们基于4月以来的高频数据，分析了美国"对等关税"政策以来我国出口以及经济运行的情况。数据显示，美国加征关税及取消 小额包裹免税政策对出口链条形成显著冲击，义乌小商品出口价格指数与总价格指数出现分化，反映出出口与内销市场结构的 调整；集装箱运价分化则揭示出制造业对外需变化的高度敏感性。同时，原油及化工品期货价格走弱，表明中游产业链承受下 行压力，PPI面临回落的风险。尽管如此，沥青装置开工率等数据回升，表明基建投资需求有所支撑。4月新兴产业EPMI大幅回 落至4 9 . 4%，进一步印证外部冲击对新兴制造业景气度的压制。本轮外部冲击主要通过需求端传导，企业应对策略呈现分化，未 来出口修复的关键在于市场多元化和全球贸易的改善。 4月新兴产业EPMI指数大幅回落至4 9 . 4%，环比下降1 0 . 2个百分点，远超正常季节性波动水平。这一变化主要由外需冲击主 导，关税加征直接压制了出口订单，企业生产同步收缩。不同于疫情时期以供给收缩为特征，本轮冲击是需求侧主导。面对突 发性外部冲击，不同企业展现出差异化应对策略：一部分企业暂停扩张、转向新兴市场、或局部产能外迁以规避关税风险； ...

申万宏源宏观｜聚焦"政治局会议"20250427 摘要 • 欧盟与美国重启高级别贸易谈判，但具体时间未定；英国坚持食品安全等 核心标准，不急于达成贸易协议。中美虽有沟通，但对降低关税的说法存 在分歧。美日谈判聚焦汽车、农产品及防卫费用，日本态度谨慎。 • 美联储官员表态偏鸽派，暗示可能在就业市场恶化时更快降息，6 月或采 取行动。美国制造业 PMI 略强于预期，服务业 PMI 则不及预期。市场预期 美联储 5 月降息概率为 8%，6 月为 58%，降息时点存在分歧。 • 对等关税政策冲击美国资本市场，影响美债市场，并导致特朗普团队内部 权力再分配。财政部长姆努钦在中美谈判中发挥关键作用。美印、越南等 贸易关系也在磋商中。 • 美联储可能在年中调整或结束缩表，但上半年债务上限问题导致 TGA 账户 释放流动性，缓解了货币市场紧张。解决债务上限后，回补 TGA 账户可能 加剧三季度流动性紧张，对杠杆交易者构成风险。 • 日本政府出台对冲关税政策，侧重于企业咨询和融资支持，而非直接补贴， 旨在提高企业竞争力和抗风险能力。这些措施旨在帮助企业应对国际贸易 环境变化带来的挑战。 Q&A 最近海外资本市场的主要动向是什么 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversial decision of Li Ka-shing to sell port operations in Panama, which has led to significant backlash and potential financial repercussions for his business empire [2][4][42]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Li Ka-shing's company, Cheung Kong Group, announced the sale of its port operations in Panama for $22.8 billion, which has drawn criticism from the public and government officials [4][43]. - The sale was intended to be finalized on April 2, but was delayed due to government intervention [8][25]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. acquisition of the Panama port is seen as a strategic move, potentially increasing transit fees and transportation costs for global trade [6][8]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade war has exacerbated the situation, with tariffs rising significantly, impacting both countries' economies [10][12][19]. Group 3: Public Reaction - The public response to Li Ka-shing's decision has been overwhelmingly negative, with many labeling him a "traitor" and questioning his judgment in light of his age [2][4][36]. - There is a perception that Li Ka-shing is prioritizing personal gain over national interests, leading to further criticism from the public [30][34]. Group 4: Future Implications - The potential for Panama to revoke the operating rights of the port from Li Ka-shing's company has emerged, following a comprehensive audit initiated by the Panamanian government [25][28]. - The article suggests that Li Ka-shing's past successes may not guarantee future stability, especially if public sentiment continues to turn against him [40][42].

日前，特朗普在社交媒体上就直言，鲍威尔早该像欧洲中央银行那样降息了，他总是"又迟又错"，"越早走人越好"。近日，他在接受媒体采访的时候，又再 次说起类似的话，声称如果他想让鲍威尔走人，那鲍威尔很快就得走，因为他现在对鲍威尔很不满意。事实上，这已经不是特朗普第一次因为美联储不降息 而将矛头指向鲍威尔了，早在他第一任期的时候，他就曾要求鲍威尔降息，但当时鲍威尔就没同意。 美联储公开抗旨，不接受特朗普的降息要求，这其中的原因是什么？小布什顾问又送了哪4个字呢？ 特朗普的所谓"对等关税"政策一出，算是捅了马蜂窝了，不仅全球贸易遭了殃，就连美国的盟友都在特朗普的关税大棒威压之下惶恐不安，美国自己也没逃 过，美股狂跌，物价飙升，通胀高企，这些对美国的负面影响丝毫不比那些被美国关税大棒制裁的国家受到影响小。曾在美国前总统小布什任内担任高级顾 问的罗夫近日就撰文怒批特朗普的关税政策，送给特朗普政府"筋疲力尽"4个字。他直言，特朗普第二任期还没满100天，他的关税政策就已经让美国人感到 了"筋疲力尽"，因为他们受到了太多的打击。罗夫甚至不禁发出疑问，特朗普的目标到底是要让贸易伙伴降低对美国商品和服务的关税？还是要用对外国商 品 ...

Core Viewpoint - A recent poll indicates that 72.57% of the Taiwanese public does not trust Trump, significantly impacting perceptions of his administration's policies [1] Group 1: Poll Results - 72.57% of respondents in Taiwan believe Trump is not trustworthy, while only 16.1% consider him trustworthy [1] - The survey was conducted among individuals aged 20 and above across more than 20 counties and cities in Taiwan [1] - The effective sample size for the poll was 1,076, with a response rate of 40.54% [1] Group 2: Survey Details - The poll was conducted from April 14 to April 17, 2025 [1] - The survey was carried out by the "China Broadcasting Corporation Public Opinion Survey Association" [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial products including stock indices, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It suggests different trading strategies based on the market trends, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships of each product. For example, in the stock index market, it recommends buying IM index futures when the impact of the tariff storm weakens; in the copper market, it expects the price to be strong in the short term due to supply - demand factors and policy changes [2][4][10]. Summary by Categories Stock Indices - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%, the ChiNext Index up 1.36%, the STAR 50 up 2.07%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1348.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: China's social financing increment in March was 5.89 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 3.64 trillion yuan. The US announced tariff exemptions for some products but may re - review and impose tariffs on electronics. The US Treasury bond sell - off continued, and the yield exceeded 4.5% on Friday [2]. - **Funding and Valuation**: The margin trading balance increased by 2.755 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 13.40bp to 1.6070%. The P/E ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. were 12.09, 27.48 respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IM index futures on dips after the impact of the tariff storm weakens. Unilateral trading suggests buying IM index long positions, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined, with TL down 0.36%, T down 0.14%, TF down 0.13%, and TS down 0.07% [5]. - **News**: At the end of March, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale was 8.4%, and the RMB loan balance increased by 7.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The US tariff policy may lead to a more active domestic monetary policy. It is expected that the interest rate will maintain a downward trend in the medium term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to policy risks and take profit opportunities [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 1.46% to 763.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.79% to 8153.00 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.20% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's hawkish monetary policy may pose a potential risk to the gold price. The current gold price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and there may be a price correction after the positive factors are exhausted [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold existing long positions in gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 748 - 780 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kg [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 34,000 tons. The short - term copper price is expected to be strong due to supply - demand factors and policy changes. The reference operating range for the domestic Shanghai copper main contract is 73,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 8900 - 9500 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rebounded after a decline. The domestic inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to continue to rebound. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2350 - 2480 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell on Friday. The zinc market is expected to be bearish in the medium term. Due to the large impact of macro events, it is recommended to reduce positions [12]. - **Lead**: The lead price rose slightly on Friday. The lead market is affected by macro uncertainties and supply - demand factors. It is expected to maintain high - volatility and low - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to reduce positions [13]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices recovered from a low level last week. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 120,000 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell sharply last week. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is expected to weaken. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference operating range for the Shanghai tin main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin 3M is 29,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate was stable on Friday, and the contract price was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference operating range for the main contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,300 - 71,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index rose on April 11. The supply is still in excess, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. [18] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on the previous trading day. The short - term price of steel products is expected to be weak and volatile due to trade frictions and supply - demand factors [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply is stable, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to control positions [22]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price declined slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash inventory was under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for both [23][24]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were volatile last week. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon continued to decline on April 11. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or use short - term trading strategies [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The global financial market rebounded, and the rubber market was affected by macro factors. The supply and demand of rubber were in a state of contradiction. It is recommended to operate conservatively, shorten the decision - making and holding periods, and reduce positions [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures rose 2.08%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.88%, and INE crude oil futures fell 1.50%. It is recommended to take profit on dips and wait for the inflection point [39][41]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price was affected by macro factors. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [42]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be supported by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and use positive arbitrage strategies for the inter - month spread [43]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded in the short term. It is recommended to close short positions. In the long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [44]. - **PVC**: The PVC price declined slightly. The short - term fundamentals are supported, but the medium - term outlook is weak. [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rose slightly. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX price fell slightly. The PX market is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [49]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The price of PE is expected to decline in the medium - term due to increased supply and decreased demand [50]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The price of PP is expected to be volatile and bearish in April due to supply and demand factors [51]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rose over the weekend. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight increase in some areas. It is recommended to short on rallies [53]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg price was stable over the weekend with a slight increase in some areas. The short - term sentiment is positive, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals [54]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal is expected to rise in the short term and then decline. The medium - term price is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to use a buy - on - dips strategy [55][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price was affected by production, export, and crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats may be supported if the macro situation stabilizes [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The short - term sugar price may be volatile, and the medium - term price is affected by weather conditions [60][61]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was volatile on Friday. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the medium - term price depends on downstream consumption. The possibility of a price decline is relatively high [62][63].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and views on coking coal and coke in the black commodity futures sector on April 11, 2025 [1][5][6] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall "oscillation approach" [1][5] - For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall "oscillation approach" [1][6] Group 4: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Core logic: During the Sino - US trade friction, the US increased import tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, and China retaliated. The direct impact on coking coal supply - demand is limited, mainly affecting black terminal exports. The US recently suspended relevant measures for 90 days for non - retaliatory countries, reducing the tariff to 10%. Market sentiment has improved, and black commodities rebounded. However, the long - term loose pattern of coking coal remains unchanged, with high supply and imports, and slow improvement in real estate and infrastructure demand. There is still export pressure from the US and high policy uncertainty, so short - term coking coal will fluctuate widely with market sentiment [5] Coke (J) - Core logic: The US increased tariffs on China but postponed the implementation for over 75 countries for 90 days, reducing the tariff to 10%. There are still re - export channels, and the market atmosphere has slightly eased. Coke futures are oscillating at a low level. Domestically, coking plants proposed a price increase on April 9, but steel mills have not implemented it. There are long - term concerns on the cost and demand sides. Coking coal supply is loose, providing insufficient cost support, and Sino - US trade friction brings export risks. The short - term improvement in fundamentals and long - term bearish expectations are intertwined, and the US tariff policy increases concerns about external demand. It is advisable to monitor domestic policies to boost domestic demand [6]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：001279 证券简称：强邦新材 公告编号：2025-009 安徽强邦新材料股份有限公司 关于美国关税政策调整对公司影响的自愿性信息披露公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 近日，美国政府宣布实施"对等关税"政策加征关税，安徽强邦新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 持续密切关注政策动态，及时评估政策变化对公司业务的影响，现就相关事项说明如下： 一、本次加征关税对公司业务的影响 公司自成立之日起就开始实施国际化战略布局，积极开拓海外市场，在国内建立完善的销售网络的同 时，也在欧洲、东亚、东南亚等国家和地区建立了销售服务体系，公司2024年前三季度外贸报关出口销 售数量同比2023年前三季度增长17.93%，通过长期耕耘，已在全球多个国家和地区树立了品牌形象， 与众多国际客户建立了稳定合作关系，形成了多元化的市场格局，降低了对单一国家或地区的依赖程 度，增强了公司整体抗风险能力。 因此美国的对等关税政策调整对公司出口业务暂无直接影响。 二、此次美国加征关税背景下公司后续的发展举措 虽然 ...

TrendForce集邦咨询表示，美国对等关税政策可能冲击各终端产品应用需求，尤其是关税全面上升将增加 物价上涨机率，进而影响消费信心。在消费者预算有限的情况下，不排除消费性电子装置的需求将受影 响，其中电视、笔电等需求可能因此下滑。IT市场中，原先预期今年商务需求有望开始恢复，但在市场前 景不明下，企业可能会提前开始控管相关IT支出与费用，将延缓商务市场回温速度。 Apr. 9, 2025 产业洞察 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，美国于当地时间4月9日起实施对等关税，由于主要以贸易逆差作为考 量因素，长期为消费性电子供应链重镇的亚洲也受波及，尤其是东南亚地区。预期显示器产业可能面临光 学膜片与AMOLED有机发光材料被加征关税的情况，终端可能面临需求下降与产品售价调升的风险。 观察面板与相关零组件供应链，绝大部分以亚洲为主要生产地，并未直接出口美国，因此原有的液晶显示 器面板与相关零组件供应链在现阶段关税措施中暂未被波及。 近期文章精选 TrendForce 就目前关税实际施行状况以及未来是否有调整空间仍充满变数，消费性电子品牌客户为应对此状况，短期 包括暂缓东南亚相关生产据点的出货，品牌或代工 ...