Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective rise today, with growth styles leading the gains and value styles showing slight increases [1] - The Guozheng Growth 100 Index rose by 3.8%, while both the Guozheng Value 100 Index and the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 0.8% [1] - Related ETFs saw capital inflows, with the Value ETF (159263) and E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) receiving net inflows of 250 million yuan and 9 million yuan respectively this month [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the recent style switching and dispersion in the A-share market is attributed to the performance gap as the year-end approaches, leading to a lack of high-frequency quarterly performance verification [1] - The shift from small-cap to large-cap styles is becoming more certain, and if there are policy catalysts or inflows from residents, low-positioned value styles may perform strongly [1]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a significant decline this week, with major indices unable to avoid losses. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.72%, while the ChiNext Index saw the largest drop of 6.15%. The small-cap indices, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, also performed poorly, declining by 5.78% and 5.80% respectively [4][12] - All major styles recorded negative returns, with the financial style down by 2.85%, the smallest decline among styles, while the cyclical style dropped by 6.05%, the largest [4][12] - In terms of market capitalization, large-cap stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks, maintaining the trend of larger stocks being more resilient during downturns. Core assets represented by the "Mao Index" and "Ning Combination" also saw significant declines, with the Ning Combination down 7.64% and the Mao Index down 3.63% [4][12] Industry Analysis - All primary industries experienced declines, with banking showing relative resilience. The banking sector fell by only 0.89%, while other sectors like power equipment (-10.54%), comprehensive (-9.18%), and basic chemicals (-7.47%) faced larger losses [4][15] - The A-share market's recent downturn aligns with historical patterns of retreat following previous uptrends, particularly affecting sectors like AI, resource products, and new energy, which had previously seen gains [4][15] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates continued market volatility, with the A-share market expected to remain under pressure due to a dual vacuum period in policy and performance from November to December. The lack of significant movement in household deposits suggests weaker future capital support for the market [5][33] - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining a growth style, focusing on sectors with strong performance trends and favorable policy expectations. The transition from a fast bull market driven by corporate capital to a slower bull market led by public funds is expected to be challenging [5][33] - Two specific strategies are recommended: investing in photovoltaic equipment that meets the "turnaround + high growth" criteria post-Q3 reports, and targeting commercial sectors and low-altitude economy industries that have lagged since September [5][33]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 23 日 维持观望，大盘风格或仍将占优 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续维持震荡观望的判断，核心原因有三点，较前期有所 扩充：一是交易维度信号偏弱，目前全市场 Beta 离散度上行、PB 分化度下 行、全 A 交易量能下行，三者均给出偏向谨慎信号。简而言之，即市场缺乏 交易主线，未能形成新的趋势。二是基本面维度有喜有忧，即中上游景气度 回升较为明显，但下游景气度以及信贷数据不及预期。三是全球流动性风险 仍未解除，上周市场回调的主要原因在于美联储 12 月降息预期显著回落导 致全球流动性收缩，虽然周五美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯表示"近期内有进 一步调整利率的空间"，带动美股企稳，但当前美联储内部分歧仍较大，在 12 月 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since October 2025, price increases have gained attention, particularly in the fields of new energy, AI, and certain black, non-ferrous, and chemical products, with many areas experiencing transaction congestion close to historically high levels [4][10][12] - Historical cases indicate that price increases driven solely by sentiment or expectations typically reach a peak when congestion levels hit 90-100%, leading to a phase of adjustment, and subsequent rebounds are unlikely to surpass previous highs without additional supporting logic [14][16] - For price increases to break previous highs after an adjustment, they usually require new incremental logic support, such as a shift from expectation to reality in economic verification or the emergence of new catalysts [14][16] Group 2 - The report identifies two main areas where price increases are likely to continue: industrial metals, driven by global economic recovery expectations and supply constraints, and the AI chain, which remains a direction with confirmed economic prospects and potential incremental catalysts [51][52] - Strong sectors often reach a stage of congestion bottom when sentiment (transaction share) declines to 50-70% of previous highs, presenting a good buying opportunity [52] - The report suggests monitoring the TMT sector's transaction share to determine when it returns to the 20-25% range, indicating a potential buying point, while the Hang Seng Technology sector should be observed for a return to the 30-35% range [60][66] Group 3 - The report discusses the historical adjustment patterns of major technology sectors, noting that the average adjustment period is around 40 trading days, with an average absolute decline of approximately 15% [71][72] - The current adjustment in major technology sectors has seen declines of 15-20%, nearing historical averages, but the adjustment duration has been shorter than the historical average, suggesting a need for patience [71][72] - The report recommends continuing to allocate resources according to calendar effects, particularly in banking and white goods, while observing potential shifts in growth styles as economic data is released [71][72]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that many investors start their investment journey with index funds and highlights the importance of understanding investment techniques to achieve good returns [2] - A free course is offered to teach investment strategies for index funds, including course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - During stock market downturns, investors can reduce volatility risk by choosing index funds, as they typically exhibit lower volatility compared to individual stocks [7] - Buying undervalued assets can also minimize downside volatility risk, with examples illustrating the limited downside potential when the market is at a 5.9 rating compared to a 1 rating [9] - For those seeking lower volatility, value-style investments are recommended, as they generally have less fluctuation than the market, while growth-style investments tend to be more volatile [10] - If value and dividend stocks still present significant volatility risk, managing stock asset allocation is advised [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a decline in various indices, with the Guozheng Value 100 Index down by 1.4%, the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index down by 1.9%, and the Guozheng Growth 100 Index down by 4.2% [1] - The Guozheng Growth 100 Index focuses on stocks with a growth style in the A-share market, closely aligning with the pulse of economic transformation, particularly in high-growth sectors such as electronics, communications, and computers [1] - Investors are encouraged to utilize the Growth ETF (159259) to seize opportunities in growth style allocations amidst the current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of the A-share market in the last two months of the year over the past decade, highlighting that large-cap value and dividend styles tend to outperform, while small-cap and growth styles lag behind. Consumer and cyclical sectors show relatively better performance [1][7]. Market Performance Summary - In the last two months of each year, large-cap value and dividend styles have consistently outperformed small-cap and growth styles, indicating a trend in investor preference [7]. - The historical performance of major indices from 2015 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with notable years such as 2020 where the large-cap growth index rose by 16.5% [2]. Leading Industries Summary - Over the past decade, the leading industries in the last two months have included: - 2015: Comprehensive, Social Services, Real Estate, Electronics, Beauty Care [4] - 2016: Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Steel, Retail, Building Materials [4] - 2017: Food & Beverage, Oil & Petrochemicals, Home Appliances, Steel, Coal [4] - 2018: Electronics, Comprehensive, Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Beauty Care [4] - 2019: Building Materials, Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Media, Automotive [4] - 2020: Non-ferrous Metals, Social Services, Power Equipment, Food & Beverage, Defense [4] - 2021: Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, Communication, Environmental Protection, Building Materials [4] - 2022: Food & Beverage, Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Media [4] - 2023: Coal, Machinery, Media, Communication, Comprehensive [4] - 2024: Retail, Banking, Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, Oil & Petrochemicals [4] Investment Strategy Insights - Various institutions suggest strategies for the year-end market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on low-value sectors and potential rebounds in banking and non-bank financials. They also highlight opportunities in energy metals, chemical products, and technology sectors [8][9]. - The recommendation includes a balanced investment approach, combining dividend and technology strategies to optimize asset allocation while maintaining a long-term perspective [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of the A-share market in the last two months of each year over the past decade, highlighting that large-cap value and dividend styles tend to outperform, while small-cap and growth styles lag behind. Consumer and cyclical sectors show relatively better performance [1][7]. Market Performance Summary - In the last two months of each year, large-cap value and dividend styles have consistently outperformed small-cap and growth styles, indicating a trend in investor preference [7]. - The historical performance of major indices from 2015 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with significant gains in 2015 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index up 4.6%) and notable declines in 2023 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index down 1.5%) [2]. Leading Industries Summary - Over the past decade, the leading industries in the last two months have included: - 2015: Comprehensive, Social Services, Real Estate, Electronics, Beauty Care [4] - 2016: Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Steel, Retail, Building Materials [4] - 2017: Food & Beverage, Oil & Petrochemicals, Home Appliances, Steel, Coal [4] - 2018: Electronics, Comprehensive, Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Beauty Care [4] - 2019: Building Materials, Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Media, Automotive [4] - 2020: Non-ferrous Metals, Social Services, Power Equipment, Food & Beverage, Defense [4] - 2021: Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, Communication, Environmental Protection, Building Materials [4] - 2022: Food & Beverage, Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Media [4] - 2023: Coal, Machinery, Media, Communication, Comprehensive [4] - 2024: Retail, Banking, Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, Oil & Petrochemicals [4] Investment Strategy Insights - Various institutions suggest strategies for the year-end market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on low-value sectors and potential rebounds in banking and non-bank financials. They recommend monitoring sectors like battery, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and chemical products for investment opportunities [8][9]. - The article suggests a balanced investment approach, combining dividend and technology strategies to optimize asset allocation while avoiding frequent trading to minimize costs and risks [9].

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of fund managers' perspectives and strategies based on their recent quarterly reports, highlighting different investment styles and market outlooks [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers express varying views on market conditions, with some maintaining optimism about equity assets due to low interest rates and the potential for corporate earnings recovery [17][18]. - Different investment styles are categorized, including deep value, growth value, balanced, and growth styles, each with distinct characteristics and focus areas [19][35][51]. Group 2: Deep Value Style - Deep value managers focus on low valuation metrics such as low P/E ratios and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [10][12]. - Historical performance shows that this style performed well in 2016-2017 and 2021-2024, while underperforming in 2019-2020 [15][16]. Group 3: Growth Value Style - Growth value managers prioritize companies with strong profitability and stable cash flows, often holding stocks for the long term [20][22]. - Concerns about market risks and valuation levels are noted, with some managers highlighting the extreme valuation disparities across sectors [22][24]. Group 4: Balanced Style - Balanced style managers seek a combination of growth and value, focusing on companies with favorable PEG ratios and exploring opportunities across various sectors [35][36]. - They emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio while identifying high-quality investment opportunities [40][46]. Group 5: Growth Style - Growth style managers focus on high revenue and earnings growth, often investing in emerging industries such as AI, renewable energy, and technology [51][62]. - The article notes a shift in focus from technology to consumer sectors as the market stabilizes, with an emphasis on identifying companies with strong growth potential [55][58]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued structural opportunities despite potential short-term volatility [40][62]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios in response to macroeconomic conditions, focusing on sectors with strong growth prospects and managing risks associated with high valuations [31][70].

Group 1 - The report from CICC highlights the existence of calendar effects in the market, influenced by the rhythm of earnings disclosures, dividend events, and seasonal changes in institutional investors' risk preferences [1][3] - Small-cap style shows significant volatility in the first half of the year, with overall improvement in the second half; the small-cap style underperformed in April, with the CSI 2000 index excess returns of -2.3% and -2.2% [1][2] - Growth style exhibits a "high first, low last" characteristic, with significant excess returns in January and June-July, achieving a win rate of 90.9% [1][2] Group 2 - Quality style demonstrates a "strong at both ends" pattern, with January (excess return of 1.4%, win rate of 81.8%) and December (excess return of 0.5%, win rate of 80%) being the strongest months for quality style [2] - Dividend style performs well in April and August, with win rates of 83.3%, while June and October show significantly lower excess win rates [2][3] - The internal mechanisms of calendar effects are linked to the timing of earnings disclosures and dividend announcements, which influence investor focus and fund flows towards stocks with better fundamentals [3]