Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market's bullish sentiment has receded, but there is strong support below the 70,000 yuan mark. Downstream demand remains cautious, and there are concerns about weakening long - term demand. However, short - term inventory reduction and demand - side restocking may support prices [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the Politburo meeting and exchange announcements, the market is driven by news. With the recovery of production and uncertain inventory trends, the market may fluctuate, and the policy support effect is yet to be verified [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the market is driven by news. There is a possibility of price regression to fundamentals, and short - term price correction risks should be watched out for [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | News - driven market | 65,000 - 66,000 | 78,000 - 83,000 | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stocking or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | News - driven market | 8,500 - 8,600 | 9,900 - 10,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | | Polysilicon 09 | News - driven market | 45,000 - 46,000 | 55,000 - 56,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 68,280 | - 3.29% | 521,849 | 229,368 | - 43,385 | 5,545 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,760 | - 5.65% | 410,371 | 212,932 | - 29,745 | 50,644 | | Polysilicon | 49,130 | - 7.81% | 565,838 | 126,989 | - 37,501 | 3,200 [16] | 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 17,268 tons, a decrease of 1,362 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Downstream**: Downstream inquiry activity has increased, but actual transactions have not increased proportionally. Downstream buyers are still cautious, mainly making purchases for rigid demand [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerating, and production is expected to continue to rise. Short - term inventory has decreased due to improved transactions, but future inventory trends depend on transaction volume and production reduction implementation [6]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level, which will form selling hedging pressure on the market. The full - cost "policy red line" provides strong support [8][9]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report.

Core Viewpoint - BASF and CATL have signed a strategic cooperation agreement for cathode materials, aiming for resource integration and technological breakthroughs in the global new energy industry chain [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - CATL has chosen BASF as a core supplier, aligning with its overseas factory layout in Europe and Southeast Asia for deep strategic synergy [2]. - The partnership focuses on advanced cathode active materials (CAM) and battery recycling, enhancing CATL's localization efforts in Europe since its first overseas battery factory in Germany [2]. Group 2: Global Expansion - CATL has established multiple overseas battery factories in Germany, Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia, while BASF is also expanding its upstream factories in Europe, China, and Indonesia [2]. - The collaboration allows CATL to offer a range of battery products, including lithium iron phosphate batteries, high-nickel ternary batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and solid-state batteries, covering various energy density ranges [2]. Group 3: Technological Focus - BASF is focusing on lithium battery cathode materials and is actively exploring cutting-edge technologies such as sodium batteries and solid-state batteries [2].

Group 1 - The Anhui Province's non-ferrous metal industry optimization and upgrading plan (2025-2027) focuses on a "1+2+N" industrial layout, emphasizing the enhancement of copper, expansion of aluminum and magnesium, and improvement of molybdenum, lead, and zinc [1] - The plan aims to strengthen the supply chain, attract investments, and accelerate digital empowerment and structural optimization, promoting the industry's development towards high-end, intelligent, and green [1] - According to Minsheng Securities, copper prices have seen a short-term decline due to US tariffs affecting trade flows, but downstream demand is starting to support prices [1] Group 2 - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with downstream aluminum profile companies primarily engaging in essential procurement, maintaining stable operating rates [1] - Lithium prices are expected to continue rising due to improved production expectations in the new energy industry chain as of July, which has boosted market sentiment [1] - Cobalt raw material imports were significantly lower than expected in June, reflecting the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, leading to a bullish sentiment in cobalt intermediate products [1] - Nickel prices are anticipated to slightly rebound as some downstream nickel salt manufacturers have a demand for restocking, with strong price support due to low inventory levels and high raw material costs [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][10]. Core Views - The completion of the preliminary design for China's first 1 million kilowatt fourth-generation commercial fast reactor marks significant progress in the country's nuclear energy strategy [2][16]. - The public utility sector saw a 7.64% increase in the total market value of fund holdings, reaching 63.28 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a focus on hydropower companies [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of coal and electricity prices moving downward, which is expected to maintain reasonable profitability for thermal power companies [4][25]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.69%, while the public utility index fell by 0.27% and the environmental index increased by 1.66% [1][15]. - Within the power sector, thermal power decreased by 0.29%, hydropower by 1.31%, while new energy generation rose by 1.24% [1][28]. Important Events - The preliminary design of the CFR1000 fast reactor has been completed, which is crucial for energy security and sustainable development in China [2][16]. - In August 2025, the electricity trading price in Jiangsu was 393.8 yuan per megawatt-hour, with a total transaction volume of 12.353 billion kilowatt-hours [2][16]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][25]. - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power for their defensive attributes [4][25]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, the total market value of fund holdings in the public utility sector was 63.28 billion yuan, with a notable increase in hydropower and gas sectors, while thermal power saw a decrease [3][19]. - The environmental sector's fund holdings totaled 7.352 billion yuan, showing a slight decline from the previous quarter [21][22]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different sectors, including: - Huadian International and Shanghai Electric in thermal power [4][25]. - Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy in new energy [4][25]. - Yangtze Power in hydropower [4][25]. - Guangxi Energy and Funiu Co. in offshore wind energy [4][25]. - Light Environmental and Zhongshan Public Utility in the environmental sector [26].

Group 1 - The strategic land transfer in Lixin County is set to reshape the urban skyline and lay the groundwork for the county's future over the next decade [1] - Two key plots of land, totaling 120.18 acres, have been officially listed for sale, with the residential plot (LXGT[2025]19) being the most notable at 97.76 acres [1][2] - The land supply plan for 2025 includes a total of 774.16 acres of residential land through 12 plots, igniting the development engine for the Binhe New Area [3] Group 2 - The 2025 land supply plan reveals a strategic ambition with 3,691.5 acres of land being released, where industrial and warehouse land occupies 50.4% of the total [4] - The introduction of the lithium battery project by Guoxuan High-Tech on 201 acres marks a significant upgrade in Lixin's industrial structure [6] - The Binhe New Area is positioned as a value high point, with plans for urban-level commercial service centers, including large shopping centers and high-end hotels [9] Group 3 - The LXGT[2025]19 residential plot is attracting market attention due to its low-density characteristics (a floor area ratio of only 1.6) and prime location, making it a benchmark for improved housing [10] - The plot's development conditions emphasize quality, with a minimum green space requirement of 35% and all parking spaces to be underground [10][12] - The introduction of a commercial plot in Madiancun is a key move to enhance tourism infrastructure in Lixin County [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, focusing on power delivery and local consumption [1][15]. - The Gansu Provincial Development and Reform Commission has proposed a capacity price mechanism for power generation, setting a standard of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year starting January 1, 2026, for compliant coal power units and new energy storage [2][17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for stable profitability in coal-fired power generation due to synchronized declines in coal and electricity prices, recommending major coal power companies [3][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the public utility index fell by 1.37% and the environmental index by 0.49%, with relative returns of -2.46% and -1.58% respectively [1][14]. - In the electricity sector, coal-fired power decreased by 1.04%, hydropower by 2.13%, and new energy generation by 0.68%, while the gas sector saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was officially launched on July 19, 2025, with a focus on five tiered power stations [1][15]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.7% year-on-year increase in industrial power generation in June, with a total of 796.3 billion kilowatt-hours produced [1][16]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends several companies based on their sector performance: - Coal-fired power: Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][22]. - New energy: Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, among others [3][22]. - Nuclear power: China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][22]. - Hydropower: Yangtze Power [3][22]. - Gas: China Resources Gas and Jiufeng Energy [3][22]. - Environmental: China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][23]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, all rated as "Outperform" [8]. For example, Huadian International has an EPS of 0.46 for 2024 and a PE of 11.7 [8]. Industry Key Data Overview - In June, the total industrial power generation reached 796.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [1][48]. - The report notes that coal-fired power generation saw a 1.1% increase, while nuclear power generation grew by 10.3% [1][48]. Environmental Sector Insights - The report indicates that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with improved free cash flow and declining risk preferences among investors [3][23]. - The domestic waste oil recycling industry is expected to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [3][23].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Weijinmai Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its high-end intelligent green factory project dedicated to specialized materials for new energy battery shells, with a total planned investment of 1 billion yuan [1]. Group 1 - The project is located in Suqian High-tech Zone, with an expected annual production capacity of 300,000 tons of specialized materials for new energy battery shells upon completion [1]. - The pre-plated nickel battery shell steel produced by this project features controllable and uniform coating technology advantages, making it more efficient and environmentally friendly [1]. - The pre-plated nickel production line is the first of its kind in the country, which will strengthen the new energy industry chain in Suqian and contribute to China's goal of becoming a strong nation in new materials [1].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing a shift from explosive growth to a stable development phase, with a production increase of 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a maturation of the market and a balance between supply and demand [2][4]. Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 125,000 tons, reflecting a 38% year-on-year growth, which is a decrease from the explosive growth rates seen in 2021 and 2022, as well as a decline from the 31% growth in 2024 [2][4]. - The robust demand from the electric vehicle sector and the booming energy storage industry has sustained this growth, with an estimated total production for the year potentially reaching 250,000 tons [4]. Market Structure - The market is characterized by increasing concentration, with the leading company, Tianqi Lithium, holding a 37% market share due to its cost advantages and production capacity [6]. - The top five companies, including Tianqi Lithium, Molybdenum, and New Tai New Materials, collectively account for 78% of the market share, indicating a trend where resources and orders are increasingly concentrated among major players, squeezing the survival space for smaller firms [6]. Future Challenges - The industry faces challenges related to capacity digestion and cost management, as the previous expansion phase leads to potential overcapacity and price competition [7]. - Smaller firms must navigate their survival strategies, either by seeking differentiated technology routes or through mergers and acquisitions to consolidate resources [7]. Future Outlook - The market is transitioning from a focus on quantity to a focus on quality, emphasizing efficiency, technology, and customer loyalty as key competitive factors [8].

Core Insights - The "Ningdian Ruinxiang" project is expected to significantly enhance electricity supply in Hunan province during the summer peak, with a maximum load forecasted to exceed 50 million kilowatts, representing an 8.4% year-on-year increase [1] - The project will contribute to the local economy by accelerating the release of benefits from the renewable energy industry chain, benefiting upstream, midstream, and downstream companies [1][2] - The project is set to achieve a transmission capacity of 8 million kilowatts and an annual transmission volume of 40 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 16% of Hunan's annual electricity consumption [1] Upstream Industry - The "Ningdian Ruinxiang" project breaks the bottleneck of renewable energy generation in western regions, allowing for increased production of renewable energy generation equipment [2] - Companies involved in renewable energy equipment manufacturing are expected to ramp up production to support projects in regions like Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Gansu [2] Midstream Industry - The project has prompted transmission and transformation equipment manufacturers to follow the bidding steps of the State Grid, aiding in the construction of power channels in central and western China [2][3] Downstream Industry - Electricity supply from the "Ningdian Ruinxiang" project allows downstream companies, such as Hunan Hualing Steel and SANY Heavy Industry, to significantly reduce energy costs and improve carbon emission performance [3][4] - SANY Heavy Industry is utilizing green electricity from the western regions to replace traditional coal power, leading to a notable decrease in carbon emissions during production [4] Equipment Supply - TBEA Co., Ltd. is a key supplier for the "Ningdian Ruinxiang" project, providing essential equipment such as high-end converter transformers and high-voltage capacitors [3] - The company has achieved a 100% first-time test pass rate for its delivered equipment, ensuring the project's operational reliability [3]

Market Overview - In June, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.50%, while the public utility index fell by 0.54% and the environmental index increased by 0.81%, with relative returns of -3.04% and -1.42% respectively [1][14] - Among the 31 primary industry sectors, public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 25th and 19th in terms of growth [1][14] - The environmental sector saw a rise of 1.08%, while within the electricity sector, thermal power decreased by 0.94%, hydropower fell by 1.76%, and renewable energy generation increased by 1.98% [1][26] Important Events - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized strengthening and expanding the marine industry, promoting orderly construction of offshore wind power [15] - National electricity load exceeded 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, marking a historical high, with a rise of approximately 200 million kilowatts since the end of June and an increase of nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The electricity industry has experienced three cycles of supply and demand changes since 2000, with future supply expected to increase significantly due to new thermal power units coming online and growth in renewable and nuclear power installations [2][22] - The demand side shows a decline in electricity consumption growth, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries, leading to a stabilization of overall electricity demand growth [2][23] Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include large thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][24] - Nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profitability, with a recommendation for China Power Investment Corporation as a restructuring target [3][24] - In the water and waste incineration sectors, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted for their cash flow improvements [3][24] Key Company Profit Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH): Expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024, PE ratio of 12.2 [8] - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): Expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024, PE ratio of 22.3 [8] - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): Expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024, PE ratio of 20.5 [8] - China Everbright Environment (0257.HK): Expected EPS of 0.55 in 2024, PE ratio of 7.3 [8]