内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤470元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润700元/吨（-5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2115元/吨（-5），内蒙北线基差375元/吨（+30），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2360元/吨（-10），鲁 南基差220元/吨（+25）；河南2255元/吨（-5），河南基差115元/吨（+30）；河北2300元/吨（+0），河北基差220元/ 吨（+35）。隆众内地工厂库存295573吨（+1885），西北工厂库存182500吨（-3000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单219365 吨（-21435），西北工厂待发订单107000吨（-15800）。 甲醇日报 | 2025-08-15 下游仍处于淡季，港口库存持续回升 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 跨期：MA09-01跨期价差逢高做反套 跨品种：逢高做缩PP2601-3MA2601 风险 投产超20年装置的动向，MTO装置检修续时间 港口方面：太仓甲醇2350元/吨（-22），太仓基差10元/吨（+13），CFR中国269美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差3元/吨 （-3），常州甲醇2455元/吨；广东甲醇2350元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the far - month contracts may experience increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - month contracts are under pressure due to large warehouse receipt pressure and are following the delivery logic [2]. - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is facing delivery, with trading returning to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price range forecast for the month is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price range forecast for the month is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Glass)**: For high glass product inventory, to prevent losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Glass)**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy FG2601 glass futures at 1000 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Inventory Management (Soda Ash)**: For high soda ash product inventory, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Soda Ash)**: For low soda ash procurement inventory, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Price Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1332 (up 33 or 2.54% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1077 (down 9 or - 0.83%), and the 01 contract was 1232 (up 3 or 0.24%) [5]. - **Glass Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1188 (down 2 from the previous day). Prices in Central and East China decreased by 20, and in Southwest China by 10 [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1427 (up 45 or 3.26% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1271 (up 18 or 1.44%), and the 01 contract was 1368 (up 28 or 2.09%) [7]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in Qinghai decreased by 20, and in Shahe increased by 18 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the export of the second batch of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price Interval Forecast - The price interval forecast for urea in the next month is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price interval is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price intervals are both 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in urea prices, companies can short the urea futures (UR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1800 - 1950. They can also buy 50% of put options (UR2509P1850) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell 50% of call options (UR2509C1950) to reduce capital costs [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about a rise in urea prices, companies can buy urea futures (UR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1750 - 1900. They can also sell 75% of put options (UR2509P1750) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - A large amount of speculative funds left the market on Friday night, and the urea futures are expected to decline, which will put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - term, the second - batch export of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly in the short - term. Factory inventories and pending orders are not under much pressure, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating, which supports the urea price. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3.4利多解读 and 利空解读 - Urea exports have been confirmed, and the futures are expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downward support. The domestic policy requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the lithium carbonate market due to significant price volatility and the strategies employed by Company D to mitigate these risks through futures risk management tools [1][2]. Project Background - The demand for lithium carbonate, a key raw material for lithium batteries, has seen exponential growth amid the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy, but prices have fluctuated over 50% in 2023, dropping from 500,000 yuan per ton to below 200,000 yuan [2]. - Company D, a small and medium-sized enterprise in the lithium carbonate processing sector, faces high R&D costs and intense market competition, exacerbated by price volatility leading to unstable profits and challenging inventory management [2]. Service Process - Company D plans to sell battery-grade lithium carbonate that meets futures delivery standards in 2024 but faces high costs and price fluctuations. A futures risk management company conducted a comprehensive analysis of the lithium carbonate supply chain, determining that a cost of 6,500 yuan per ton would cover all expenses, providing a safety net for the company [3]. Strategic Approach - The company implemented a strategy of dividing sales over 20 trading days and using dynamic pricing based on the previous day's SMM average price to mitigate market impact and align with market trends [4][6]. Risk Management - A three-tiered risk management approach was adopted, which included: 1. Diversifying sales over 20 trading days to reduce price impact [7]. 2. Dynamic pricing to hedge when market prices exceed spot prices [7]. 3. Multi-channel monetization to capture market lows and reduce risks [7]. Final Outcomes - Through this collaboration, Company D successfully locked in profits from the sale of 90 tons of lithium carbonate, avoiding losses exceeding 1 million yuan due to price fluctuations, ensuring stable income for operational costs [8]. Innovative Model - The "non-standard to standard + forward pricing" model creatively integrates futures hedging tools with actual production needs, addressing the challenges of non-standard product circulation and pricing while promoting standardization in the processing sector [9]. Ecological Value - The case of Company D serves as a replicable risk management template for SMEs in the new energy industry, enhancing market competitiveness and supporting the dual carbon goals by reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the lithium battery sector [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: In the early third quarter, improved macro sentiment, supply disturbances, and the phenomenon of a non - typical off - season will cause futures prices to fluctuate upward; in the fourth quarter, after technological upgrades are completed and production capacity is released, futures prices will fluctuate downward. [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 14.66%. The trading volume was 2.39 million lots, a week - on - week increase of 62.6%. The open interest was 908,100 lots, a week - on - week increase of 247,400 lots. The spread between the LC2509 - LC2511 contracts maintained a back structure. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,996 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,757 lots. [1] 3.1.2 Industry Performance - Supply: This week, the price increase of the mining end intensified, with an average increase of over 19%. The SMM Australian ore 6% CIF was quoted at $860/ton, and African ore was quoted at $801/ton, with an overall increase of over 17%. The price increase in the lithium salt market was smaller than that at the mining end, with lithium carbonate prices rising by about 9% and lithium hydroxide by about 5%. The basis quotes in the trader segment continued to weaken. The weekly operating rate of sample lithium salt factories decreased by 1.96% week - on - week, and lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. - Demand: This week, the quotes of downstream material factories were differentiated, with price increases lower than those of lithium salts and lithium ores. The quotes of the lithium iron phosphate system increased by about 4%, and those of the ternary material system increased by about 2%. The quotes of the electrolyte end were stable. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate remained flat week - on - week, with a slight decrease in production; the production of ternary materials increased week - on - week; the production of lithium manganate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium cobaltate enterprises remained flat week - on - week. - Terminal: The quotes in the battery cell market were stable. This week, battery cell production remained stable. - Inventory: This week, domestic lithium ore inventories decreased week - on - week, lithium carbonate inventories increased by 0.39% week - on - week, the inventories of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week, and the inventories of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate increased week - on - week. [2] 3.1.3 Core Logic - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are all under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is progressing slowly. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. - There are two short - term logics in the current market: In the price decline cycle, the clearing pressure caused by the overcapacity of lithium salts is transmitted upstream to the mining end, and the loosening of ore prices in turn exacerbates the downward inertia of lithium salt prices, forming a negative feedback loop risk of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt decline". When the futures rebound is driven by macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, it creates a certain hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, stimulates the release of production enthusiasm, drives the consumption of lithium ore, and promotes the rise of lithium ore prices, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price follow - up". As lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits gradually increase, the operating rate will gradually increase in the future, and finally return to the fundamental situation of demand - based pricing. - Enterprises are continuously optimizing the production process through production line technological upgrades, driving the continuous decline of production costs. The steep cost curve formed by cost differences in the past is gradually flattening. This "collapse - style" cost reduction not only weakens the support of traditional high costs for prices but also becomes the core force driving the decline of lithium carbonate prices. [2][4] 3.1.4 Nanhua's Viewpoint - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. [4] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendations - Enterprises should seize the window period for planned production; speculative investors are advised to adopt a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. [4] 3.1.6 Bullish Interpretations - As lithium ore and lithium salt prices continue to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances gradually increases. - The current situation of high open interest and low warehouse receipts is being traded in the market. - The production scheduling on the demand side has increased more than expected. [4] 3.1.7 Bearish Interpretations - The future production capacity of lithium ore is still expected to be large, and high inventories are suppressing ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in an inventory accumulation trend. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have led to a decrease in the costs of some high - cost technology routes, delaying the capacity clearing. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - The report provides detailed weekly price data for the lithium - battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium salts, downstream materials, and terminal products, showing price changes, week - on - week changes, etc. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate weighted index contract was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10,175 yuan and a week - on - week increase of 14.66%. [5] 3.3 Lithium Ore 3.3.1 Import - The report presents the seasonal chart of the total monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate by country (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Rwanda). [11] 3.3.2 Production - It shows the seasonal charts of the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and sample lithium mica mines in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent. [13] 3.3.3 Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium ore (including total inventory, warehouse inventory, and trader's spot inventory at major ports) and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples in lithium salt factories in terms of LCE equivalent. [15] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Operating Rate - The operating rate of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 1.96% week - on - week to 48.6%. Among them, the operating rate of lithium spodumene enterprises decreased by 0.64% to 52.61%, the operating rate of lithium mica enterprises increased by 2.97% to 58.18%, the operating rate of salt lake enterprises decreased by 13.25% to 56.22%, and the operating rate of recycling material enterprises decreased by 0.34% to 20.5%. [23] 3.4.2 Production - The weekly production of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week to 18,630 tons. Among them, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased by 0.64% to 9,264 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica increased by 0.3% to 5,115 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lake materials decreased by 13.25% to 2,847 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate from recycling materials decreased by 0.4% to 1,404 tons. [31] 3.4.3 Import - The report shows the seasonal charts of the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate (cumulative value since the beginning of the year and monthly value) and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate by country (Chile and Argentina). [32][34] 3.4.4 Inventory - The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% week - on - week to 143,170 tons. Among them, smelter inventories decreased by 4.57% to 55,385 tons, downstream inventories increased by 3.74% to 42,815 tons, and other inventories increased by 3.83% to 44,970 tons. [38] 3.4.5 Profit - The report provides charts of the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally (including the profit of the sulfate method and the sulfuric acid method for lithium carbonate), the import profit of lithium carbonate, and the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate. [39][42] 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 Operating Rate - The report shows the seasonal charts of the operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [44][46] 3.5.2 Production - It presents the seasonal charts of the total production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [48][51] 3.5.3 Inventory - The report provides the seasonal charts of the total inventories of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate industries. [53][55] 3.5.4 Profit - It shows the profit charts of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate, as well as the theoretical cost chart of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte. [57][58] 3.6 Terminal Battery Cells 3.6.1 Production - The report shows the production data of SMM lithium batteries (total production, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, production of SMM ternary batteries, and production of other types of batteries), the monthly production data of SMM power battery cells (total, ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and other types), the seasonal chart of the monthly production of SMM power battery cells (total), and the seasonal chart of the monthly production of Chinese energy - storage battery cells. [60] 3.6.2 Installation Volume - It presents the seasonal charts of the total installation volume of Chinese lithium batteries, the installation volume of LFP batteries, and the installation volume of NCM batteries. [63][64] 3.6.3 Battery Cell Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium batteries (including lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary batteries, energy - storage batteries, and power batteries), the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of Chinese power battery cells (lithium iron phosphate), and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of SMM Chinese power battery cells (ternary). [66][68]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, which may cause more concentrated sales and keep the spot market weak. The macro sentiment is strong recently, but the premium on the futures market has increased, and hedging profits have risen significantly. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 13,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [4] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract is 14,210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the生猪2601 contract is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 79,187 lots, down 42,372 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 62,464 lots, down 4,839 lots; the生猪2511 contract has a trading volume of 21,662 lots, down 22,162 lots, and an open interest of 46,374 lots, down 732 lots; the生猪2601 contract has a trading volume of 27,110 lots, down 22,001 lots, and an open interest of 39,822 lots, up 1,068 lots [4] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract's basis is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the生猪2601 contract's basis is - 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; and the 11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Attention should be paid to China's purchases and weather in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the far - month supply - demand gap is the focus for layout [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include Sino - US peace talks expectations, strong far - month bullish sentiment in the weather market, and cost support from Brazil's export premium for far - month contracts. Bearish factors involve spot supply pressure on the basis, expected soybean arrivals, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed issue and potential supply recovery of rapeseed [5][6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are as follows: Soybean meal 01 closed at 3116, up 12 (0.39%); Soybean meal 05 at 2769, up 9 (0.33%); Soybean meal 09 at 3095, up 9 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 01 at 2444, up 7 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 05 at 2383, up 6 (0.25%); Rapeseed meal 09 at 2758, up 22 (0.8%) [7][9]. Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, are presented in the report. For example, the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 347, up 3 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.7627 and a weekly decrease of 0.004. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40.4599 and a weekly increase of 0.9124. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino - US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the long - term supply - demand gap is the key for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong long - term bullish sentiment under weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums supporting long - term contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors involve supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to monitor the departure of long - position funds in the near - term contracts for futures - spot convergence, expected soybean arrivals with a gap after December, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed meal issue and potential Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 14.1%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1642 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2531 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders**: With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, they are advised to short 25% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Feed Mills**: With low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, they are recommended to buy 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - **Oil Mills**: Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they should short 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover costs [3]. 3.2 Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of soybean meal 01, 05, and 09 are 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with daily increases of 17, 8, and 17, and daily growth rates of 0.55%, 0.29%, and 0.55% [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of rapeseed meal 01, 05, and 09 are 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with daily increases of 22, 11, and 9, and daily growth rates of 0.91%, 0.46%, and 0.33% [7][9]. - **Others**: CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1026.75 with no change, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1714, down 0.0071 or 0.1% [9]. 3.3 Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 344 (up 9), M05 - 09 is - 326 (down 9), M09 - 01 is - 18 (unchanged). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2900 (unchanged), and the basis is - 186 (down 17) [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 60 (up 11), RM05 - 09 is - 359 (up 2), RM09 - 01 is 299 (down 13). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2590 (down 84), and the basis is - 137 (down 89) [10]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: The spot spread is 310 (unchanged), and the futures spread is 350 (up 8) [10]. 3.4 Import Costs and Pressing Profits - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4770.043 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3927.66 yuan/ton (down 29.05) [11]. - **Profits**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 853.473 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 133.4212 yuan/ton (down 20.3779), the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 301 yuan/ton (down 4), and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 292 yuan/ton (down 8) [11].