陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 2025 年 6 月 13 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 黄金 期货将偏强震荡 纯碱期货再创上市以来新低 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3895 和 3905 点，支撑位 3850 和 3841 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2664 和 2660 点；IC2506 阻力位 5801 和 5817 点，支撑位 5729 和 5700 点；IM2506 阻力位 6200 和 ...

Group 1 - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7595.0 yuan, with a rise of 2.70% [1] - The market is seeing a reduction in positions while prices are increasing, indicating a potential shift in trading dynamics [2] - Supply from major producers in Xinjiang is driving the weekly increase in industrial silicon, while downstream production of polysilicon and organic silicon is also rising [2] Group 2 - Some institutions predict that silicon prices may maintain a strong trend due to increased demand and production recovery [2] - However, other analyses suggest that the market may face downward pressure due to stable supply and declining demand from the organic silicon sector [3] - The overall sentiment in the market is mixed, with some expecting a potential decline in prices while others see short-term strength [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on June 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and chemical futures, and gives resistance and support levels [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided. For the whole of June 2025, they are also expected to have a generally strong - oscillating trend [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][39]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2508 are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while silver futures AG2508 are likely to oscillate strongly and may hit a new high. For June 2025, gold futures are expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend, and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and break through key resistance levels [3][45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper (CU2507), aluminum (AL2507) futures are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, while alumina (AO2509), zinc (ZN2507), nickel (NI2507), rebar (RB2510), hot - rolled coil (HC2510), iron ore (I2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Different resistance and support levels are given for each [3][4][5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures SC2507 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels. For June 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend [5][95]. - **Chemical Futures**: PTA (TA509) futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while PVC (V2509), methanol (MA509), and natural rubber (RU2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly, with corresponding resistance and support levels [7][101][103]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [8]. - **Domestic Policies**: The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on improving people's livelihood, and the State Council carried out a special study on promoting the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and PPI was still at a low level. In the first five months, China's total import and export value increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [8][9]. - **International News**: The US Senate Republicans plan to propose a revised tax and healthcare bill, the US may hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and late September, and consumer inflation expectations in the US decreased in May [10]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On June 9, international precious metals futures closed mixed, and international oil prices strengthened. The first recycled metal futures option, cast aluminum alloy, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10 [12]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 9. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 all showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The A - share market oscillated and rebounded, and the Hong Kong stock market was strong [14][15][16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 9, the ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 both showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The central bank carried out 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1738 billion yuan [36][41]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On June 9, gold futures AU2508 fell, while silver futures AG2508 rose and hit a new high [45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On June 9, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures showed different trends of rise and fall [54][59][63][68][71][77][80][83]. - **Energy Futures**: On June 9, crude oil futures SC2507 rose [95]. - **Chemical Futures**: On June 9, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber futures showed different trends of rise and fall [101][103][105][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on June 6, 2025, including股指期货, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures, and multiple commodity futures [3][4]. - Positive factors such as the China - US leaders' phone call and the upcoming implementation of economic - stabilizing measures are expected to impact the market, while negative factors like the cooling US employment market and the Tesla - Trump conflict also bring uncertainties [9][16][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview -股指期货, silver, coking coal, glass, rebar, iron ore, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, soybean meal, and natural rubber futures are expected to show a strong - side or strong - side oscillatory trend; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures and gold futures are likely to show a weak - side oscillatory trend [1][3][4]. 3.2 Macro News - China - US leaders had a phone call, agreeing to continue implementing the Geneva consensus and hold a new round of talks soon. China hopes the US will stop negative measures and handle the Taiwan issue carefully [9][10][11]. - The central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on June 6 to hedge against the maturity of repurchase funds. The net liquidity injection in May was 111.96 billion yuan [14]. - Relevant departments are accelerating the introduction of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with most policies expected to be implemented by the end of June [15]. 3.3 Commodity Futures Information - On June 5, international precious metal futures closed with mixed results, with COMEX gold futures down 0.68% and COMEX silver futures up 3.31%. International oil prices rose, with US oil up 0.64% and Brent oil up 0.66% [19]. - London base metals showed mixed trends. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 52 points, and the US dollar index fell 0.07% [20][21]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - On June 5, the performance of various stock index futures contracts was mixed, with some showing weak rebounds. It is expected that on June 6, stock index futures will show a strong - side oscillatory trend [21][22][27]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 5, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed a weak - side trend. It is expected that on June 6, they will continue to show a weak - side oscillatory trend [46][50][54]. 3.4.3 Precious Metal Futures - On June 5, gold and silver futures showed weak rebounds. It is expected that on June 6, gold futures will show a weak - side oscillatory trend, while silver futures will show a strong - side oscillatory trend and may hit a record high [56][59]. 3.4.4 Base Metal Futures - On June 5, copper, aluminum, alumina, tin, and industrial silicon futures showed different trends. It is expected that on June 6, they will generally show a strong - side oscillatory trend [65][68][75]. 3.4.5 Other Commodity Futures - On June 5, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, soybean meal, and natural rubber futures showed different trends. It is expected that on June 6, they will generally show a strong - side oscillatory trend [88][94][128].

【建筑与钢材市场多指标变动，螺纹钢等期货行情有新动态】先来看行业新闻动态。百年建筑网数据显 示，样本建筑工地资金到位率环比上升0.26个百分点，达59.13%，创逾4个月高位。本周资金到位率结 束前两周下降态势转为增长，其中非房建项目资金到位率61.01%，同样创逾4个月高位，周环比升0.53 个百分点；房建项目资金到位率49.85%，周环比降0.95个百分点，受年中业主拨款延迟影响。 钢谷网 消息，全国建材总库存876.62万吨，环比减少17.87万吨，降幅2.00%。全国建材社库550.47万吨，较上 周减14.84万吨，降2.63%；厂库326.15万吨，较上周降3.03万吨，降幅0.92%；产量421.93万吨，较上周 降3.83万吨，降幅0.90%。中西部建材方面，社库237.94万吨，较上周减0.23万吨，降0.10%；厂库 189.46万吨，较上周增0.30万吨，增幅0.16%；产量134.65万吨，较上周降3.21万吨，降幅2.33%。 中钢 协发布报告，5月下旬21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存794万吨，环比减少39万吨，下降4.7%，库存降幅 扩大；比年初增加135万吨，上升20.5%；比上 ...

数据显示，5月30日上海白银现货价格报价8180元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（8218元/千克）贴水38 元/千克。 【交易策略】 【白银期货最新行情】 本周的白银期货行情颇具波动性。周一时，白银期货价格在8300附近展开震荡走势，市场似乎处于一种 微妙的平衡状态。到了周二，行情出现调整，价格一路下行，最低触及8220这一关键位置。然而，就在 触及此低点后，行情迅速反转，走出一波上涨态势，这恰好为山海在8250布局多单创造了理想的时机。 随着价格的上扬，行情一度走高至8300。 5月30日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 8218 0.07% 658243 334026 但市场形势总是变幻莫测，周四行情再度转向下跌，不过此次下跌的力度相对较小，并未形成强烈的下 行趋势。这种局面下，市场再次给予了做多的机会。原本我们期待行情能够冲击8350这一目标价位，然 而周四当天价格最高仅达到8300，两波行情下来，整体依然难以摆脱震荡格局，未能走出趋势性的上涨 行情。 美国贸易法院周三裁定总统无权征收关税，挡下特朗普大部分的关税措施，不过周四，联邦上诉法院又 同意特朗普政府暂缓法院裁 ...

5月28日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘绿。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报800.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦煤主力最高触及804.0元，下方探低777.0元，跌幅达2.26%附近。 目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 新世纪期货指出，焦煤产量高位，五一节后下游补库动力不足，523家样本矿山原煤库存刷出历年新 高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月09合约将持续走弱。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下 跌，焦企入炉煤成本下降，多数企业保持在盈利状态，然今日钢厂对焦企开启第二轮提降，焦企利润将 收缩。随着各地高温天气到来，下游需求转弱，钢厂控量现象增加，焦企库存压力增加，焦炭综合库存 整体环比增加。焦炭供应过剩的格局未改，煤焦整体跟随成材走势为主。 国信期货分析称，供给端，前上周主产区部分煤矿因井下因素限产，上游开工率周环比小降，国内煤炭 供应整体保持平稳。进口方面，下游采购需求不佳，口岸库存再次累积，通关量周环比下降。需求方 面，焦企开工持稳，高炉铁水产量阶段性见顶，周环比持续下滑，炉料真实需求边际走弱。基本面支撑 不足，盘面偏弱震 ...

5月23日盘中，锰硅期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至5724.00元。截止发稿，锰硅主力合约 报5742.00元，跌幅3.24%。 锰硅期货主力跌超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 国海良时期货：锰硅谨慎观望 供需方面，锰硅产量有所回升，铁水处于高位，库存虽处于高位，但保持下降趋势，锰硅底部空间有 限，但6月梅雨季和消费淡季钢厂需求或将季节性转弱，中长期锰硅需求偏弱局势不变。锰硅短期受消 息面影响或有反弹上升可能，但持续时间预计不长，策略上谨慎观望，待资金情绪回稳后轻仓逢高试 空，上方压力位在6300-6500元/吨附近，下方支撑位在5600-5700元/吨附近。 国泰君安期货：锰硅情绪驱动短期冲高，基本面中长期承压 锰硅受到南非矿端信息影响，涨幅达到3.84%，收于5998元/吨。南非国家铁路与港口运营商及工会之间 陷入了工资谈判的僵局。当前工会将提前48小时向港口运营商发出罢工通知。同时，南非对锰矿矿产起 源开启了战略性评估，其中锰矿被明确定义为高关键性矿物，除此之外还有铂金、铁矿石、煤炭和铬 矿，关键矿出口或将受限。矿端的信息提振锰硅市场当前走势，但锰硅基本面表现略显 ...

结构上看大多货源已转移至产业链中游，贸易商目前存在一定挺价惜售意愿。受塞内开关延迟及进口利 润不佳影响，本年度进口花生到港量较常年偏少。局部产区农忙，农户货源销售量偏少，整体上货量不 大，批发市场按需补库，现货价格持续偏强。压榨厂散油榨利尚可，托底收购。天气逐步转暖，农忙结 束后吉林等地基层少量尾货有一定销售需求。主产区花生处于播种、生长季，花生玉米比价有所回落， 但花生比较种植收益尚可，种植面积预期处于高位，同比变化不大，局部产区有高温和偏旱现象，对期 价产生一定提振，但局部产区将出现降雨，对土壤墒情将形成改善，关注产区天气变化。多单部分止 盈。10合约支撑8000-8004，压力位上调至8450-8460。 5月23日盘中，花生期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至8278.00元。截止发稿，花生主力合约报8284.00 元，跌幅1.22%。 花生期货主力跌超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ | 机构 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 方正中期期货 | 花生10合约支撑8000-8004 | | 中原期货 | 花生近期不建议做空 | | 瑞达期货（002961） | 花生价格预计上行 ...

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...