Group 1 - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of 34.49 billion HKD in the Hong Kong stock market on December 31, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 30.97 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 3.51 billion HKD [1] - The total net purchase of Northbound capital for the year reached a historical high of 1.41 trillion HKD, significantly increasing from approximately 807.9 billion HKD in 2024 [1] - The most purchased stocks by Northbound capital included China Merchants Bank (03968), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398), and China Construction Bank (00939) [1] Group 2 - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net purchase of 850 million HKD, while Tencent Holdings (00700) faced a net sell of 660 million HKD [2] - China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank received net purchases of 7.24 billion HKD, 5.88 billion HKD, and 5.61 billion HKD respectively [4] - Semiconductor stocks also saw increased investment, with SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) receiving net purchases of 391 million HKD and 69.94 million HKD respectively [5] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) received a net purchase of 237 million HKD, supported by government policies promoting consumption [5] - Jiangxi Copper Co. (00358) had a net purchase of 158 million HKD, while Zijin Mining (02899) experienced a net sell of 682 million HKD [6] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) received a net purchase of 86.86 million HKD, as it announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in Fenglong Co. [6]

随着国家发展改革委、财政部《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》的正式 公布，消费品以旧换新政策的具体实施细则也迎来进一步明确。 七部门《通知》强调，对全国统一的四个领域，各地不得自行变更补贴品类、调整补贴标准。 与此同时，在政策执行层面，给予了地方更多自主空间。即允许各地区在消费品以旧换新政策框架内， 使用地方安排的配套资金，自主合理确定补贴品类、补贴标准、组织实施方式等，鼓励优先支持能效、 水效、环保水平高的产品。对中央下达的支持资金，除用于执行全国统一的四个领域补贴政策之外，各 地还可用于支持智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）购新补贴。 七部门《通知》指出，各地在消费品以旧换新政策框架内自主制定实施的补贴政策，鼓励重点支持国务 院"人工智能+"行动明确的新一代智能终端。各地要强化标准牵引，结合相关部门人工智能终端智能化 分级标准制定和产品智能化等级认定等情况，合理确定补贴品类。各地可参照全国统一的四个领域补贴 政策，合理确定相关品类补贴比例和额度，防止补贴泛化、碎片化，确保政策能落地、可操作，切实提 高资金使用效益。 此外，在落实家电以旧换新、数码和智能产品购新补贴政策过程中，商务 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will undergo a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 31, and there is pressure at 33.5 above [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin pulled back from a high level, with a weekly gain or loss of - 4.62% and an amplitude of 9.82%. As of the close of this week, the main contract was quoted at 322,920 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: According to the minutes of the Fed meeting, "most" officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate "holding steady for some time". The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones has been issued in advance [4]. - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply side**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. At the smelting end, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventories of most enterprises are still low. For most enterprises, it is in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, still lacking year - on - year increments. In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about restricted supply in Indonesia. Recently, the import loss has been repaired. If the window opens later, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [4]. - **Demand side**: Recently, the price of tin has pulled back from a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot premium has remained at 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has fluctuated [4]. - **Technical - level**: Trading volume has increased while positions have decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Price**: This week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium remained stable. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 327,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,110 yuan/ton or 3.85% compared with December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 42,195 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,032 US dollars/ton or 2.39% compared with December 22 [6][9]. - **Ratio**: As of December 31, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin - to - nickel price was 2.45, an increase of 0.23 compared with December 24. As of December 29, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.34, an increase of 0.32 compared with December 23 [13]. - **Position**: As of December 31, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 87,788 lots, a decrease of 20,845 lots or 19.19% compared with December 24. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 6,558 lots, a decrease of 5,187 lots compared with December 22, 2025 [18]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - **Tin ore import and refined tin production**: In November 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the refined tin output was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative refined tin output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin ore processing fee**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 24, 2025 [30]. - **Refined tin import**: As of December 30, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 7,431.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,624.44 yuan/ton compared with December 24, 2025. In November 2025, the refined tin import volume was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin import was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative refined tin export was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 685 tons or 14.75% compared with December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons or 6.38% compared with last week. As of December 31, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 7,442 tons, a decrease of 889 tons or 10.67% compared with December 24 [39]. - **Demand side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 30, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,169.1, an increase of 23.53 or 0.33% compared with December 22. From January to November 2025, the integrated circuit output was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Domestic tin - plated sheet export**: As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% compared with October 2025. As of November 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% compared with October [46].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 沪镍不锈钢市场周报 印尼政策情绪改善 镍不锈钢震荡偏强 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 关 注 我 们 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 获取更多资讯 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 周度回顾：本周沪镍主力延续上涨，周线涨跌幅为+4.81%，振幅8.99%。截止本周主力收盘报价132850元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美联储会议纪要："大多数"官员预计12月后适合继续降息，部分主张"一段时间"按兵不 动。2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划已提前下达。基本面，菲律宾进入雨季， 镍矿进口量回落趋势；印尼明年RKAB计划大幅削减配额，原料供应趋紧引发市场担忧，长期仍需看传导进程。冶 炼端，印尼镍铁产量维持高位，回流国内数量预计增加；中国及印尼多个新建精炼镍项目陆续投产，虽中间品原 料紧张，利润亏损导致部分减产，产量依旧处于高位，但成本支撑增强。需求端，不锈钢成本镍铁下跌，钢厂利 润改善，预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 随着国家发展改革委、财政部《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》的正式 公布，消费品以旧换新政策的具体实施细则也迎来进一步明确。 12月30日，商务部等7部门发布了《关于提质增效实施2026年消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（下称"七部 门《通知》"）；同日，商务部等8部门办公厅还联合发布了《2026年汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》。 12月31日，商务部等5部门办公厅（室）还发布了《关于做好2026年家电以旧换新、数码和智能产品购 新补贴工作的通知》，明确对6类家电产品、4类数码和智能产品给予扣除各环节优惠后最终销售价格的 15%作为补贴。每人每类可补贴1件，其中，家电产品每件补贴不超过1500元，数码和智能产品每件补 贴不超过500元。 商务部召开的2026年全国消费品以旧换新工作部署电视电话会议强调，各地区、各有关部门要强化工作 统筹，部门协同、央地联动合力抓好政策落实；要优化实施机制，持续提高补贴审核和兑付效率，推 动"高效办成一件事"；要严厉打击骗补套补，确保补贴资金用到实处、见到实效；要加强政策宣传和活 动推广 ...

随着国家发展改革委、财政部《 关于 2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的 通知 》的正式公布， 消费品以旧换新政策 的具体实施细则也迎来进一步明确。 允许各地在政策框架内，自主确定补贴品类、标准等 根据七部门《通知》，2026年，中央继续安排超长期特别国债资金，各地按比例安排配套资 金，支持消费品以旧换新政策实施。 2026年以旧换新政策的全国统一支持范围包括汽车报废更新、汽车置换更新、6类家电以旧 换新（冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器）、4类数码和智能产品购新（手机、平 板、智能手表/手环、智能眼镜）等四个领域（下称"全国统一的四个领域"）。 七部门《通知》强调，对全国统一的四个领域，各地不得自行变更补贴品类、调整补贴标 准。 与此同时，在政策执行层面，给予了地方更多自主空间。即允许各地区在消费品以旧换新政 策框架内，使用地方安排的配套资金，自主合理确定补贴品类、补贴标准、组织实施方式 等，鼓励优先支持能效、水效、环保水平高的产品。对中央下达的支持资金，除用于执行全 国统一的四个领域补贴政策之外，各地还可用于支持智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）购 新补贴。 七部门《通知》指出，各地在消 ...

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瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 沪铜市场周报 假期临近库存积累，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.49%，振幅6.74%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价98240元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。一些与会 者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在本次会议下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。国内方面， 2026年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》， 同时下达首批625亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC加工指数现货小幅下行，矿紧预期持续，铜价 成本支撑逻辑坚固。供给端，在原料供给持续偏紧以及假期将至的影响下，铜冶炼产能或将逐步收敛，国内精铜供给量增 速逐渐放缓。需求端，铜价冲高回落后修复力度较 ...

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